Jan 31, 2015

Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday...Looking Better!

First of all up front; let's define Super Snow; when I first sent that out in the title I was thinking of one of our bigger snowstorms in Southeast Lower Michigan; particularly in Detroit where the heaviest snow of the three cities was expected (and still is). I had envisioned of snowstorms of a foot or more when looking at the chart below. As one can see by the chart in which I developed years ago at the NWS for the net (and is kept up to date by the NWS), it's not that easy to officially get a foot or more with just 12 times since 1880 it happening (good way to remember; 12 for 12). Therefore; I thought that would be a good place to start when using the play on words and title "Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday" At that time, the chances looked fairly low for a foot or more when first issued. Now I'm not so sure they are that low...



Detroit's Heaviest Snow Storms

RankDateAmount
1 April 6, 1886 24.5
2 December 1-2, 1974 19.3
3 March 4-5, 1900 16.1
4 February 28-March 1, 1900 14.0
5 December 18-19,1929 13.8
6 February 12-13 1894 12.8
7 February 19, 1908 12.6
8 January 31-February 1,1881 12.5
9 February 9,1911 12.3
10 March 3-4,1895 12.3
11 January 22-23,2005 12.2
12 January 13-14,1927 12.1
13 January 30-31,1982 11.8
14 January 13-14,1910 11.4
15 March 4-5,1899 11.4
16 January 2-3, 1999 11.3
17 December 19-20, 1973 11.2
18 February 3-4,1901 11.2
19 March 7-8, 1931 11.1
20 January 13-14, 1992 11.1
21 December 31, 2013-January 2, 2014 11.1
22 February 25-26, 1965 11.0
23 December 4-5, 1898 10.6
24 January 4-5, 2014 10.6
25 January 6, 1994 10.3


Latest guidance has ramped up a major (or worst - best if you are snowstorm nut) snowstorm for extreme Southeast Lower Michigan; while still somewhat lesser amounts north of the Flint into Port Huron. As mentioned in previous blog last night; the moisture and dynamics with this system were coming together for this to be a better, more developed Ohio Valley storm that actually slows down some as it approaches western Pennsylvania on Monday.

It's been my observation over the years, usually these St Louie lows are good achievers (but still not as good as the Gulf Low) in their own right as they "paddle-boat" moisture in from the Gulf while they form and develop while moving across the Ohio Valley. What was originally missing like many times (or at least was questionable) was the phasing or interaction of the dynamics in the upper levels to affect the lower levels of the atmosphere. These dynamics are in the form of short wave energy from the northern Pacific, southern Canada and the Central Pacific - which is observed as a "Cut-off Low" (cut off from the main jet stream). Therefore; the amount of energy that was needed to come together to lift and support the increasing moisture pulled north from the SW and Gulf was questionable to produce a major storm.

This distant player in this system is indeed, the large upper low system of the Baja area of California into the Southwest. Even while remaining nearly stationary, it still has been able to pinwheel spokes of energy and moisture from the Pacific over the southwest part of the country. This moisture has been pushed broadly upward into the south and even central part of the country. While the main system stays put, still enough energy and moisture is forecast to be tapped to aid in development of this major Ohio Valley system. See maps and explanations below:

Snowfall and weather forecast:

Snow will commence during the early morning hours of Sunday. Look for the snow to become heavy at times as the day wears on along with a stiffening northeast wind at 10 to 20 mph. Snow, heavy at times with considerable blowing and drifting later afternoon into the night. Winds will pick up from northeast at 15 to 25 mph and gusty, becoming north on Monday. Considerable blowing and drifting snow with temperatures dropping into the teens to lower 20s by Monday morning. Ironically, Monday morning is Groundhog Day and I suspect he might be buried and downright crabby if he is pulled out of his hutch; both here and in Punxsutawney Pennsylvania!

Snow Amount Estimates:
I feel the general model trend and intensification are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event: There will be a rather sharp line of demarcation from north to south with this system with highest amounts generally to the south of the delineated area. Look for 2" - 4" north/south in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region; 5" -  10" from the Flint area east across to Port Huron and then; south into the Ann Arbor area to Metro Detroit. Further south across the Southeast corner of Lower Michigan 8" - 12" of snow is possible. If the storm deepens further and slows down more - some isolated 12"+ amounts are possible in those areas.









Latest European Model Monday Morn 2/2/15:

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian


Jan 30, 2015

Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday? Well, Maybe Some Snow...

Late Night Update - 1/30/15

As data becomes bettered sampled, I believe the track of the low may bit a further north then the Ohio River Valley, closer to the NAM guidance at 12z and now 00z. This track would take the low from the St Louis area...slightly east northeast to between Indianapolis and Evansville...across Dayton to south of Columbus. This system will have an ample supply of moisture coming in from both the southwest and later; the gulf. That's one of its big pluses for snow amounts, a broad area of moisture. The big negative will be the cold, Arctic high in the northern lakes funneling dry air into the Saginaw Valley and Thumb leading to a distinct cut off of the heavier snow. I've upped the snow totals based on the strong consensus of the model precipitation; albeit still allowing for a bit of a cut back of the NAM snowfall totals. See general snow amounts forecast below:

I feel the NAM's storm track and GFS snowfall are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event: There will be a rather sharp line of demarcation from north to south with this system. Look for 1" - 4" north/south in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region; 4" -  8" from the Flint area east across to Port Huron and then south into the Ann Arbor area to Metro Detroit. Further south across the Southeast corner of Lower Michigan 7" - 10" of snow is possible.

As the system continues to be better sampled, look for updates on this evolving storm.

_________________________________________________________________________
Original -1/30/15 - 
Our meteorological guidance is converging on a likelihood of a snowy Super Bowl Sunday across Southeast Lower Michigan; particularity in the south. All the latest model information tracks a low pressure center across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Depending on the exact path of the storm will determine snowfall amounts across the region.

At this time; given the guidance and meteorological background; I think the NAM is too wet and predicts too much snowfall over Southeast Lower Michigan (5" - 12"+ - highest south). Whereas the GFS's track and snowfall are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event (1" - 3" north &  3" - 7" south). Not surprising (as compared to the GFS), the European and Canadian Models are painting a similar picture for extreme Southeast Lower Michigan as far as snowfall but with just an inch or two over the far north (Saginaw Valley/Thumb region). Of course; as better data is sampled tonight and tomorrow these amounts could change but that's the way it looks to me at this time.

Our NAM Model:
Has the track of the storm center the furthest north (and thus the most moisture 
and snowfall) with the center moving across central Indiana and Ohio.


Our GFS Model:
Has the track of the storm center a bit further south across the Ohio River Valley (and somewhat less snowfall) with the center moving on a line pretty much from St Louis thru Louisville to Cincinnati.


The European /ECMWF/ Model:  Note in two time panels 12z Sun and 12z Mon with the 60Hr N/A; moves is further south across mainly southern Missouri and central Kentucky to southern W Virginia.




The Canadian /GEM/ Model:
It is pretty much in an agreement with the Euro and moving it across the Ohio River Valley.



I'll update with later guidance on Saturday, or if need be... late tonight.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Jan 26, 2015

As the Northeast Braces for Their Blizzard; We Have One of Our Own to Celebrate on the Same Date 1/26; Back in '78!

"A GREAT STORM IS UPON MICHIGAN" THE GREAT BLIZZARD OF 1978!

"A GREAT STORM IS UPON MICHIGAN"
THE GREAT BLIZZARD OF 1978!

Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian - Southeast Lower MI

As with the huge snowstorm of December 1974 another even more powerful (in terms of intensity/extent) storm is of strong interest to all meteorologists who have studied winter storms in the Great Lakes. This storm is also of interest and remembrance to many longtime residents of the Great Lakes, the Upper Ohio Valley and Ontario, Canada who had to deal with winter's full fury late in January of 1978. In addition, the storm certainly casts many memories for those of us who were on duty and worked during the storm...while being in awe of the development and subsequent immense strength of this great monster. With the 36th anniversary of this Great Blizzard at hand, it is worth taking a step back in time to re-live this monumental example of nature's fury.

While there are several contenders for the worst blizzard ever to hit the Great Lakes in relatively modern times (since 1870 when records began in Detroit), the immense and intense Blizzard of January 26-27th 1978 must rank at or near the top along with the Great White Hurricane of 1913 with its similar track and powerfulness.

The incredible Blizzard of January 26-27th, 1978 evolved out of a winter that was infamous for cold and storms. The Winter of 1977-78 thus far had been one the coldest, since records began, in many areas from the Rockies eastward to the Appalachians. Mammoth blizzards occurred late in January and early February from the Midwest to the East Coast as strong Arctic plunges dove south into the country and met up with the warmer winds from the deep south. The winter of 1977-78 was similar to its predecessor (1976-77) in terms of cold. The main difference between the two winters, however, came in February. In 1977, temperatures moderated rapidly during February, while in 1978, the cold actually worsened - with several locations reporting their coldest recorded February to date. The Winter of 1977-78 is written down in the record books as Detroit's seventh coldest winter, Flint's fifth coldest and Saginaw's sixth. West of the Rockies, it was a different story as a dominant upper ridge of high pressure provided a relatively mild winter, with some stations even reporting one of their warmest winters on record.

The Great Storm

Since there were some forecasted variances of the intensity and track of the storm, and considering the primitive model of the day (LFM - Limited Fine Mesh), forecasters did an admirable job in forecasting one of the most severe winter storms ever to hit the Great Lakes Region.

A Winter Storm Watch was posted as early as Tuesday night, the 24th, for the southern half of the Lower Peninsula for Wednesday Night into Thursday. Gale Warnings for the Great Lakes were hoisted the following Wednesday morning, along with the Watch. A weaker system had moved through the region earlier during the day on Tuesday and already dropped some snow on the region (a Winter Storm Watch had been issued for this system as well, earlier on Monday, the 23rd). After Tuesday's snow, the headline on the Special Weather Statement that was issued by the NWS Tuesday evening read as follows: "Another Winter Storm Threatens Lower Michigan" and thus, a second Winter Storm Watch was officially posted.

Meanwhile, the ingredients of what would later prove to be a truly fascinating yet vicious winter storm were coming together from different parts of the country. As with the "White Hurricane of 1913," the massive storm actually began as two smaller but distinct storms. A strong low pressure with an attending arctic air mass was entering the Northern Plains by way of Northern Minnesota on Tuesday evening (24th). At the same time, another developing low pressure system was taking shape over the eastern Texas/Louisiana area.

The phasing of two distinct jet streams aloft proved to be the key as to the subsequent strength and massive extent of the storm. A very strong and energetic Arctic impulse surged almost due south and plowed the Arctic front through the Northern Plains late on the 24th. At the same time, another very strong upper wind impulse surged south through southern Arizona. These two jet streaks made up the larger North American jet stream as a huge upper ridge of high pressure along the West Coast of the U.S. diverted the powerful Pacific Jet north into Northern Canada. This northern jet (containing a wind max of 110 knots) then dove due south, like on a giant roller coaster, across the western U.S. as the second, subtropical jet (with an even stronger wind max of 130 knots) surged across southwestern states. On Wednesday (25th), a deepening area of low pressure made its way east across the Gulf States into Georgia by evening (surface | 500mb). Meanwhile, across the north, the Arctic front barreled east across the Upper Midwest into the Western Lakes by Wednesday evening.

Earlier that Wednesday morning, the Winter Storm Watch for Southeast Lower Michigan was changed to a Heavy Snow Warning, while a Travelers Advisory was issued for Western and Northern Lower Peninsula. Later, at the issuance of the evening forecast, the entire Lower Peninsula was upgraded to a Heavy Snow Warning. Meanwhile, a rapid deepening of the surface low over the southeast portion of the country also commenced on Wednesday evening. As the low intensified over Alabama and Georgia, Atlanta registered its lowest barometric pressure ever late on the 25th. At the same time, further north in Michigan, snow was falling over much of the Lower Peninsula. In and around the Ann Arbor and Metro Detroit, the snow mixed with or changed to light rain Wednesday night as slightly warmer air surged northwest 500mb chart, 00z January 26th, 1978; click to enlarge into that area ahead of the deepening storm. While the storm was organizing in the lower levels of the atmosphere over Georgia, the Subtropical and Arctic jet aloft began to merge and phase over the Southeast part of the country. This merging of jet streaks contained a wind max of 150 knots which helped induce a rapid intensification of the Georgia Low as it surged northward into West Virginia early on the 26th. Record low barometric pressures were set all along its path as an ominous track (trough) began to materialize toward the Eastern Great Lakes.

Bands of heavier snow spread north into much of Southern Lower Michigan during the very early morning hours of the 26th. Rain continued to fall, however, over the extreme southeast corner of Lower Michigan. At 1 AM EST, rain was observed at Detroit Metro Airport with the temperature comfortably above freezing at 36 degrees. Further north at Flint, however, sleet and freezing rain were falling as the temperature hovered around freezing. Air pressure tendencies were noted as falling rapidly /PRESFR/ and continued that way for several hours (in fact, several stations in this storms path had to re-adjust their barographs for station pressures traces that were BELOW initial chart scale).
The aforementioned Arctic cold front that was across the Western Great Lakes advanced steadily east into Lower Michigan as the main southern low underwent explosive deepening (this low's central pressure fell 40 millibars in 24 hours)! The central pressure was recorded at 28.28 inches as it tracked north across eastern Ohio, just west of Cleveland, at 7AM EST. As the low moved out over Lake Erie, the Arctic cold front over Southeast Lower Michigan was pulled sharply east into it's mammoth cyclonic circulation. Any residual rain over Southeast Lower Michigan quickly changed to heavy snow and blowing snow during the pre- dawn hours of the 26th. As the Arctic front plowed through the Cleveland area, the wind gusted to an incredible 82 mph! As the Arctic air flooded the Cleveland area, the temperature dropped from a relatively balmy 44 degrees at 4AM EST to a bitterly cold 7 degrees by 1000 AM EST.

Blizzard Warnings were hoisted across much of the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley Region by daybreak Thursday. The center of the huge storm (surface | 500mb) continued to trek north northwest across Southwest Ontario (roughly between Chatham and London) while Detroit measured its lowest pressure reading at 28.34 inches at 650 AM EST. The incredibly deep center made its way north along the St. Clair River with Sarnia ON reporting the lowest pressure on land at 28.21 inches. Not only was the depth of this mammoth storm's center very impressive, so too was the extent of low pressure from its center. Even locations that were far removed from the storm's center also reported record low pressures. Stations such as Cincinnati OH, Rochester NY and Toronto ON and even as far east as Wilmington N.C., all recorded record low pressure readings from this monster. In fact, at Toronto, where records go back as far back as 1840, the lowest pressure reading of 28.40 inches broke the old record of 28.57 inches by 0.17 inches. In addition, dozens of other cities, with records going back a century, also recorded their lowest pressure reading of all time or, for at least the month of January. This massively intense storm was responsible for strong wind gusts as far away from the center as Boston /72 MPH/ and Chesapeake Bay Bridge /90 MPH/ with even damaging winds reported as far south as Tallahassee FL.

As the Arctic air circulated throughout the storm while it made its way over Lake Huron, the lowest pressure was reached around 950 millibars or a hurricane-like 28.05 inches! "A Great Storm is Upon Michigan" read the headline of the 800 AM EST Special Weather Statement issued by the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Ann Arbor that Thursday /26th/ morning. Heavy snow and blizzard conditions were extensive as wind gusts in excess of 35 mph whipped the snow into huge drifts across much of Southeast Lower Michigan. Other areas of Eastern Michigan, Indiana and Ohio reported near hurricane-force winds, heavy snow and temperatures hovering between zero and 10 above, resulting in extreme blizzard conditions. These conditions later expanded further east into Pennsylvania and West Virginia and prevailed into the night (26-27th) across much of the Eastern Great Lakes, Southern Ontario and the Upper Ohio Valley. With the storm generating copious amounts of snow and very strong winds, whiteout conditions were widespread. All land and air traffic came to a stand still in the affected regions. Several major roads were closed for at least two to three days, if not longer, while clean up got underway. Numerous NWS employees were stranded at work, home, or on the road somewhere between the two. Several employees worked double shifts into at least Friday (some longer) because of the impassable roads with others simply unable to get to work.

The Blizzard Warnings were allowed to die across Michigan during the forenoon hours of Friday, the 27th. Record 24 hour snowfall totals from the storm included, 16.1 inches at Grand Rapids, 15.4 inches at Houghton Lake and 12.2 at Dayton, OH. Snowfalls for the entire storm (25-27th) included a whopping 30.0 inches at Muskegon (some of which was Lake Michigan enhanced), 19.3 inches at Lansing and 19.2 at Grand Rapids. Snowfalls were less over Southeast Lower Michigan (mainly because of the rain that fell for a period) and included 9.9 inches at Flint and 8.2 inches at Detroit.

The following is a quote from the summary written about the storm by Meteorologist in Charge, C.R. Snider on January 30th, 1978 at the National Weather Service Ann Arbor:

"The most extensive and very nearly the most severe blizzard in Michigan history raged throughout Thursday January 26, 1978 and into part of Friday January 27. About 20 people died as a direct or indirect result of the storm, most due to heart attacks or traffic accidents. At least one person died of exposure in a stranded automobile. Many were hospitalized for exposure, mostly from homes that lost power and heat. About 100,000 cars were abandoned on Michigan highways, most of them in the southeast part of the state."
The employees of the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Ann Arbor had just set up shop at the new quarters at the Ann Arbor Federal Building a WEEK before the storm hit. The forecast staff had transferred from the Detroit Metropolitan Airport Office while the observing and radar staff remained at the airport. The majority of employees still lived in and around the metro Detroit area and all major roads between Detroit and Ann Arbor were blocked for approximately 18 hours due to the storm. Several employees put forth efforts beyond the call of duty, stated Mr. Snider in his storm report.

Yet, as mentioned earlier, the Winter was not yet over by any means as the month of February (after the storm) was brutally cold across much of country. The below normal temperature departures of February 1978 were strikingly similar to that of January 1978 (and in some places, February was actually colder). The average temperature for Detroit that winter came in at just 20.5 degrees /normal 27.1/ which again, made it the seventh coldest winter on record. Snowfall totaled a hefty 61.7 inches which made the winter of 1977-78 the eighth snowiest winter on record at Detroit. Flint's average temperature of 19.1 degrees made it the fifth coldest winter on record, but Flint received less snow than Detroit with 50.6 inches /19th snowiest/. Saginaw's winter average temperature of 17.9 degrees made it the sixth coldest winter on record and was accompanied by 55.6 inches of snow, making it the just the 20th snowiest winter.

Here is the classification of the Blizzard of '78 !


Here are the top 25 snowstorms for Detroit and note, Jan 26-28 is NOT in the list, since only 8.2" fell officially at Detroit Metro Airport. Much higher amounts fell further west over South-central and Southwest Lower Michigan.

RankDateAmount
1 April 6, 1886 24.5
2 December 1-2, 1974 19.3
3 March 4-5, 1900 16.1
4 February 28-March 1, 1900 14.0
5 December 18-19,1929 13.8
6 February 12-13 1894 12.8
7 February 19, 1908 12.6
8 January 31-February 1,1881 12.5
9 February 9,1911 12.3
10 March 3-4,1895 12.3
11 January 22-23,2005 12.2
12 January 13-14,1927 12.1
13 January 30-31,1982 11.8
14 January 13-14,1910 11.4
15 March 4-5,1899 11.4
16 January 2-3, 1999 11.3
17 December 19-20, 1973 11.2
18 February 3-4,1901 11.2
19 March 7-8, 1931 11.1
20 January 13-14, 1992 11.1
21 December 31, 2013-January 2, 2014 11.1
22 February 25-26, 1965 11.0
23 December 4-5, 1898 10.6
24 January 4-5, 2014 10.6
25 January 6, 1994 10.3

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian



Jan 22, 2015

Update 1/23/15 - Parade of Clippers Only Systems Bringing Snow This Slow Season

-Update 1/23/15

Latest model information has been weakening the low pressure to move through the Ohio Valley on Sunday or drifting it further south. Therefore; only the southern third of Southeast Lower Michigan will see snow on Sunday and generally just an inch or two.

_____________________________________________________________________


Virtually all the snow received this paltry winter storm season over Southeast Lower Michigan has been the result of some Alberta Clipper type low pressure system. True; some impressive lake effect snows have resulted with the cold Arctic air sweeping over the Great Lakes but that's been local effects downwind of the Great Lakes, leaving only light amounts here.

Recent light snows this past few weeks have "nickled and dimed" the region enough to bring normal to even above normal snows to Southeast Lower Michigan for January...and we aren't done yet. The entire region is below normal for the winter but probably surprisingly, not that much. The prolific snow making month of November (and now January) helped out there with above normal snows. On average; the region has averaged just 2" - 6" below the normal snowfall expected thru this midwinter season. The main reason it seems like we've had less snow is that we haven't had any big snows (big meaning 6" or more) AND it was so snowy last winter. This winter's snow accumulation thus far is a far, far cry from last winter's when record snows were measured in most areas from the I-69 region (Flint to Port Huron) south across the Ann Arbor and Metro Detroit areas to the Ohio border!

As of the 22nd; 17 1/2 inches of snow /17.4"/ has been recorded at Detroit Metro Airport this snow season; 2.8" below normal  Flint has received more with 22 1/2 inches /22.5"/ but is still below its normal by 1.6". Further north around the Saginaw Valley, less snow has fallen this season with just 14.3", about 6" below normal.

Stronger Clipper This Weekend May Bring Better Snows Southeast Lower Michigan

Early but consecutive guidance on another upcoming Clipper Low Pressure system is that it will affect the area later this weekend. The low and storm center advances quickly southeast across the Upper Midwest and into the northern Ohio Valley, Sunday and Sunday night. Most guidance has been stronger with this system than the past several that affected the area - along with a bit better moisture supply. The devil is in the details as far as exact track and pressure differences with ensemble GFS members quite variable with both. Though, I would not be surprised if this system, like the last, tracks further north than the map below depicts and thus, it is used for a median track.


As this early time frame /Thursday evening/; look for the storm to bring a swath of light to moderate snowfall across Southeast Lower Michigan on Sunday. How much snowfall will depend on the exact track of the system. Clippers as a rule contain sharp lines of demarcation between snow and no snow on the southern extent of their track. Meaning; if the low tracks further north than the maps suggest below, less snow will fall particularly over extreme Southeast Lower Michigan...closest to the track. On the other side of this envisioned storm track; if she were to track further south then the Saginaw valley and other areas north would receive less snow. I'll fine tune the track into the weekend in updates but as it stands now; 2"-4" of snow is likely with even a higher core amount of 3"-5" possible. Again this is preliminary from what I'm seeing at this time but plan accordingly as this system has the potential to be weaker...or stronger at this early date.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Jan 17, 2015

Let's Take a Break from the Hibernating Cold to Look at Mom Nature at Her Grandest!

These pictures are just too beautiful and grand not to share! Try too look at them without doing the "ink-blot test"; you can't...each one reminds you of some beautiful spiritual, heavenly or earthly image. Mother Nature the Grand Dame Artist! Imagine this after a big blizzard, sort of a "winter rainbow" though nothing to do with the meteorological storm per se'.

Amazing aurora! An unexpected CME impact on Jan. 7 created a strong geomagnetic storm (G3 out of 5.) And beautiful aurora ensued! These images come from Ruslan Akhmetsafin in Russia, Aykhal; Greg Syverson in Prudhoe Bay Alaska; Arctic Fishing Adventures in Tromsö, Norway and more from Ruslan Akhmetsafin in Russia, Aykhal. All these were shared at spaceweather.com

For more on aurora's!









Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Jan 2, 2015

Update 1/8/15 - Another Strong Arctic Impulse To Make Being Outside & Travel Hazardous Into Tonight!

1/8/15 - Update

As mentioned in last post 

"Other impulses surging southeast in the cold cyclonic flow aloft will bring the risk of light snow or snow showers to the region thru the rest of the week but nothing extraordinary or heavy is expected at this time."

Latest data on another quickly moving Arctic impulse along with strong surface convergence zone over Wisconsin, indicates a band of mainly 1-3" with local amounts near 4" of snow are likely for the region. The snow will begin late this afternoon over western counties and be over much of  Southeast Lower Michigan by sunset. This band of snow will continue into the first half of the night as it plows thru the region rapidly from west to east. Considerable blowing and drifting will accompany the system as a reinforcement of Arctic air moves across the region.

As a result, hazardous travel will be in full force dark along with bitter cold wind chills as low as -15 to -25 with temperatures in the single digits above and below zero! It will be a wicked night outside as dangerously very cold wind chills accompanying the blustery, snowy conditions. Take care if you must go out and/or travel. Because of the relatively uneventful season thus far; this system should be our best (or worst, depending point of view) this season thus far.

1/5/15 - Update

Latest indications have clipper moving faster than discussed back on the 2nd along with a more southern track. While dynamics are adequate for a band of moderate to heavy snow, it will be well south of Southeast Lower Michigan across central and southern Indiana and Ohio tonight into early Tuesday. 

Up here in Southeast Lower Michigan, I would look for little if any snowfall across the Saginaw Valley into the Thumb from the clipper. An inch or less is likely from the Flint to Port Huron areas south into Howell and east across Detroit's northern suburbs. The southern third of the region - roughly from Ann Arbor thru Detroit and points south - will generally see around an inch; possibly two near the Ohio border. Other impulses surging southeast in the cold cyclonic flow aloft will bring the risk of light snow or snow showers to the region thru the rest of the week but nothing extraordinary or heavy is expected at this time.

The big news this week will continue to be the Arctic cold along with a record or near record (for January & depending on locality in the Plains and Midwest) high pressure as it pushes into the Plains and Midwest. After, the high pressure core will weaken with time.  Detroit's barometric high pressure record for January sits at 31.03" /1050.8Mb/ occurring way back in January of 1927. The record of all time is just one hundredth more - 31.04" /1051.1 Mb/ which actually occurred twice; Feb 1934 and March of 1948. All three of these record high pressure readings are safe as the high pressure core will circumnavigate the Great Lakes and weaken.



Temperatures during the week will average well below normal with coldest readings in the single digits to near 10 for highs; while lowest fall into the single digits below zero to possibly as low as -10 to -13 under any intermittent clear skies in the south. Along with the coldest readings expected, another big factor at times will be the dangerously cold wind chills particularly ahead of the Arctic mound of high pressure Wednesday into Thursday.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian


_________________________________________________________________________

Original 1/2/15 -


In my last blog, I spoke of the weekend potential snowstorm's demise and issued the likely unfolding scenario of the system yesterday, New Year's Day.

" Here we are again with a storm taking aim on the Great Lakes - and here we are again -  likely to miss a significant snowfall. Why? The decided storm track will likely again be anti-climatic for Southeast Lower Michigan to experience a big storm. Latest indications are the low pressure will begin developing over eastern Texas, slide north northeast thru Western Arkansas, Missouri, southern Illinois and on northward across northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan. From there, best track at this time appears to be over or near Battle Creek, Lansing and Saginaw then out over Lake Huron while she deepens. 

Does this mean all chances snow or even mixed precipitation have gone by the wayside? No. As the low approaches and pushes the warmer, moisture laden air over the cold air and landscape I look for a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to overspread Southeast Lower Michigan during the day Saturday; changing over the rain across the region by Saturday night then back to snow and snowshowers overnight. The best chance for any accumulations of snow will be again, like the last storm, over the Saginaw Valley at the onset and behind the system."

This system still looks too warm to bring any large amounts of snow to the region. That being said; the latest storm track is a bit further southeast and closer to my original thinking; east northeast across the Tri-state area of Indiana/Ohio/Michigan then onward over the southeast corner of Lower Michigan and into southwest Ontario. This southeast shift of track almost guarantees a period of mixed precipitation across Southeast Lower Michigan along with some snow accumulations at the onset and behind the system (as mentioned yesterday). 

While precipitation will begin as snow, sleet and/or freezing rain; any snow accumulations will be minor in the southern areas (Ann Arbor - Metro Detroit - Adrian - Monroe areas) mainly amounting to an inch or less. The bigger headache will be traveling during the morning and early afternoon hours everywhere where the combination of mixed precipitation and cold ground makes driving hazardous until temperatures climb above freezing. Further north into the Howell - Pontiac - Flint - Port Huron areas a couple inches of snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain may get a chance to accumulate an inch or two before the change to rain. Again the furthest north-northwest areas, into the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region could see 2-3" of snow, sleet and freezing rain before mixing and changing 

to rain.

Impressive Strong Cold Air Advection Will Bring Coldest Air of the Season and Dangerous Wind Chills into Early Next Week !

Strong Arctic high pressures surging out of Canada this next week will bring impressive cold air advection and pressure gradients due to the high pressure cores. Central estimate pressure readings at this time of 1045 - 1057 MB /30.85 - 31.20 IN/ are expected to flood into the country. These strong high pressure readings and the tight gradients of cold air advection will bring dangerous low wind chills in the upcoming week; at times well below zero! Air temperatures of teens and single figures are likely much of the time, however coldest lows could fall below zero on some morning.

Take a look at this neat animation of the Polar Vortex split and Arctic conveyor belt from the North Pole vantage affecting the upcoming system for this week.

Potent Clipper to Bring a Round of Snow and Wind Tuesday into Tuesday Night

A fast moving Alberta Clipper should push an area of snow across the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, Tuesday into Tuesday night. While this system will be quickly moving and somewhat limited in moisture, it will deposit a swath of measurable snow across all or parts of the region.  I say somewhat limited on moisture because as a rule, these storm systems tend to be on the drier side. Early indications however, do show encouraging moisture amounts and snowfalls of possibly generally 1-3"or even 2-4". This is EARLY, so you know the scoop; don't count on those amounts until you see the definite track, moisture and whites of the flakes! ;-) You know how Mom Nature's been cheap with the snow this season as opposed to last! In any event; it WILL BE COLD this week!



While winter's been stubborn to take residence over the country and Great Lakes this cold season; this week should let everyone know what season it is!

Updates likely this upcoming week!


Have a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year for 2015!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian



Jan 1, 2015

Another Potential Snowstorm Bites The Flurries

At the end of my last blog on December 27th, I stated the following...
 
"Near Term Outlook

As you can tell by some of the prognostic data presented here there is a change afoot this week anyway; and when there is a change in the overall pattern that usually involves a storm and colder air. Well again the models are dancing around with possibilities of a New Years weekend storm /3rd-4th/ and again it's everything from a major snowstorm to rain or freezing rain to nothing for us. Stay Tuned!" 

While mentioning a variety of outcomes possible with this system, many of us - me included- where hoping for the season's first major snowstorm as the models showed an array of possible scenarios. Some snow lovers who were stung just a week earlier with the snowstorm-no-show for a white Christmas, were leery of the model's promise of a storm New Year's weekend! I was not hopeful for the Christmas storm and was a little more juiced up for the second; but still was not at all satisfied with the prospects.

Here we are again with a storm taking aim on the Great Lakes - and here we are again -  likely to miss a significant snowfall. Why? The decided storm track will likely again be anti-climatic for Southeast Lower Michigan to experience a big storm. Latest indications are the low pressure will begin developing over eastern Texas, slide north northeast thru Western Arkansas, Missouri, southern Illinois and on northward across northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan. From there, best track at this time appears to be over or near Battle Creek, Lansing and Saginaw then out over Lake Huron while she deepens.   



 



Does this mean all chances snow or even mixed precipitation have gone by the wayside? No. As the low approches and pushes the warmer, moisture laden air over the cold air and landscape I look for a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to overspread Southeast Lower Michigan during the day Saturday; changing over the rain across the region by Saturday night then back to snow and snowshowers overnight. The best chance for any accumulations of snow will be again, like the last storm, over the Saginaw Valley at the onset and behind the system.


Have a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year for 2015!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
 
 

Dec 27, 2014

So: Where's our Winter and Snow Thus Far??? Looking Back and Foward into the New Year of 2015

The cold season started out with a bang in November but then quickly went to a whimper in December, the true cold or winter month. This December has been well above average in the temperature department and has had little in the way of measurable snow. Officially in Detroit; just a trace of snow has fallen thru the 27th and it's liable to stay that way through the end of the month! It would be the second least snowfall ever recorded in Detroit since 1880 with only 1889 seeing NO snow. And, all this coming after last winter's record snowfall; I just tell people Mom Nature used up her snow allotment last winter ;-).

So, what's going on?  Well, I have a few hypotheses and a theory about that and it actually finds it's roots in my Winter Outlook when looking at the broad key players this winter.

Ok; then what am I posting about, what are the basic key players, the hypothesis's and resulting theory?

The key players or passengers as you will, in our jet stream "vehicle" since November: NAO/AO, North-Central Pacific Water Temperatures, EPO and El Nino  (in order of precedence).

NAO/AO: North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations

Should be no question about this one, the main driver or pilot in our weather this late fall and early winter. Or is it? Is there another, while not the main driver - a "back-seat" driver?

First, note the NAO track record thus far this cold season: it's mainly encompassed in a positive phase. Also, see the NAO remains weakly positive thru most of January; but what of the AO?











Now the AO, Arctic Oscillation did show some life back in November and early December with negative phases and our temperatures in Southeast Lower Michigan acted accordingly by falling below normal. Note the decline or negative phase estimate the remainder of the winter and early spring. I wonder if that trajectory will verify?













North and Central Pacific Water Temperatures:

In my opinion or hypothesis, this and not the weak El Nino has been the co-pilot or "back-seat driver" thus far during the cold season and the "co-conspirator" (along with NAO/AO) as to why December has been mild and uneventful. The wide area of above normal temperatures across the general Pacific has been a major contributor the mild month.
In my Winter Outlook, I stated that the second area of warmer than average water temperatures stretching across the Pacific, north of the El Nino may be just as important as the up and coming El Nino. Here is my explanation and Map from the Outlook:

"It is still assumed however, that the weak El Nino will affect the cold season upper and surface wind flow by aiding and abetting the subtropical flow into the country. In addition, another item of importance is the large area of above normal water temperatures seen out in the mid Pacific north of the standard El Nino. I feel this too will also influence the sub-tropical jet, especially the late Autumn into early winter anyway (see Nov map below). By mid to late winter, the warmer waters all around the central Pacific are understandably projected to wane (Feb map). 

The below Pacific water temperatures pattern is now reminiscent of a positive PDO /PDO+/ along with the weak El Nino. Recently, negative PDO conditions have held sway out over this region. Below are the current November water temperatures including the positive PDO with warmer waters surrounding cooler waters in a horse-shoe shape".



Check out the dominant flow across that region and the U.S. this past 30 days in the boxed-in areas.





Mid November to mid December's 500H trajectory below shows very well the strong Pacific jet and also the cold polar vortex /500 Upper Low/ over eastern Canada. Both of which we've had a taste of since November...and battle is ON!




Meanwhile our third player or passenger /EPO/ has remained rather quiet this winter /Dec/ trip thus far, being mainly in a positive phase but it too seems to becoming restless.


EPO: Eastern Pacific Oscillation

Unlike last winter and main reason we were so cold last winter, the EPO has not been in a dominant negative phase. When in a negative phase, it encourages ridging along the west coast of Canada which connects with a cross polar projection of Arctic air and frequently works in conjunction with the NAO/AO but this conjunction as we saw last winter, is not always needed for a Arctic air delivery to U.S.

Note the phases of the actual observance of the EPO phase this fall and early winter on the top panel, of the EPO Index. However, more interesting developments are the change that is projected (and is actually happening as I write) on the successive 4, 7, 10 and 14 day forecast below. Check out the dates on the bottom then look again at the top panel. A strongly negative phase corresponds well with much of November, the cold month, the well below normal temperature month we just felt. See the change in the phase index in December? Nearly the whole month has been positive and that to a lesser extent, along with a positive NAO/AO and the warm waters in the Pacific; have all helped keep the bitter cold air in mainly Canada since early December.






El Nino:

The fourth "passenger" in this winters jet stream "vehicle" is of course the one everyone makes a fuss over, the boy child; El Nino. While he's been squakin and fussing some, he's terribly weak and really not even at "official" El Nino status yet.



From the Climate Prediction Center

Although the SST anomalies alone might imply weak El Niño conditions, the patterns of wind and rainfall anomalies generally do not clearly indicate a coupling of the atmosphere to the ocean. Therefore, despite movement toward El Niño from one month ago, the combined atmospheric and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral.
 
Similar to last month, most models predict SST anomalies to be at weak El Niño levels during November-January 2014-15 and to continue above the El Niño threshold into early 2015 (Fig. 6). Assuming that El Niño fully emerges, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event. In summary, there is an approximately 65% chance of El Niño conditions during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which are expected to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

That is another great reason why this very mild and uneventful December is actually a "psuedo El Nino", there really isn't one but it's been like one. El Nino really hasn't had an influence on the States by most accounts, which leads me back to what I feel are the main drivers in this winter thus far: NAO/AO and the mild Pacific waters and strong jet across them.

Why Have the Models Been So Erratic (Lousy)?

So what gives for the immediate future and why have the models been all over the place with storm development and cold air delivery timing?  Well just look at what they are up against, two or three "passengers" trying to gain control over the weather pattern into the country. The "main driver" or pilot; NAO/AO is fighting against a stubborn "backseat driver" or co-pilot the Pacific Jet and mild above normal water temperatures. Yes the analogies are somewhat silly but very "apropos" given the radical and inconsistent behavior of the forecast models dealing with them.  After all, when people think about the chaos of driving and other "drivers", it is a common image yet it really does capture the multifaceted battle in the atmosphere. ;-)

Near Term Outlook

As you can tell by some of the prognostic data presented here there is a change afoot this week anyway; and when there is a change in the overall pattern that usually involves a storm and colder air. Well again the models are dancing around with possibilities of a New Years weekend storm /3rd-4th/ and again it's everything from a major snowstorm to rain or freezing rain to nothing for us. Stay Tuned! Also, after we'll look into what January is likely to have in store and compare its past - analogues - with this December and into January.

New Years Eve looks good weather-wise right now with only the drinkers and subsequent drivers to be concerned about!

Have a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year for 2015!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Dec 21, 2014

Ghost of Christmases Past; The Whitest of Christmases and Other Christmases Past

The Whitest of Christmases and Other Christmases Past 
 
By: William R Deedler; Southeast Michigan Weather Historian
Date: 7AM Sunday Dec 21st, 2014
 

Frequently during the Christmas Season, meteorologists are asked; Are we going to have white Christmas?  Generally, it is agreed among meteorologists that in order to "officially" have a white Christmas, an average of an inch of snow must cover the ground, but not necessarily have to fall on Christmas. 

At this time /21st/, we have the likelihood of a storm but just a slight chance of a white Christmas across all of Southeast Lower Michigan from any residual snowfall late Christmas Eve into Christmas.  Over the years extreme Southeast Lower Michigan has average about a 50 percent chance for a white Christmas.  Some years it's already on the ground, some years not, some years it melts while other years is falls on the day.  Now officially there must be an inch of snow on the ground Christmas MORNING at 7am. That is how the official "white Christmases" have been tallied n the past. So theoretically, you could actually have nothing on the ground Christmas morning and have a snowstorm dump a foot on the region during the day and still have NO official white Christmas under the standing rule. It works the other way too; you could have a several inches on the ground at 7am 12/25 but warmer air and/or rain melts it away by afternoon or evening and still officially have a white Christmas.

Timing isn't the issue this year it's more technical than that; while precipitation is likely before and maybe on Christmas - how much of it falls as snow /need an inch/ is the big question. As of the 21st, it looks like most of the precipitation will be rain before Christmas and maybe just snow showers  Christmas Eve and Day. Also, like many years before,  it may depend where you are in Southeast Lower Michigan as to whether or not you will enjoy a white Christmas this year (similar to last year). Even with all the snowfall throughout last winter, officially on 12/25/13 at 7am Detroit Metro Airport had only a TRACE of snow on the ground. Most areas into the remainder of Southeast Lower Michigan had some residual snow and ice on the ground for a white Christmas.

Previous recent Christmases
Back in 2012, enough snow did fall at Detroit Metro Arpt (an inch of fresh snow Christmas Eve) to make it an official white Christmas was on the ground as of 7AM. The necessary inch or more was also on the ground at both Flint and Saginaw. Ironically the day after Christmas, the best snowstorm of the winter season hit the region...a day late and several inches short for Christmas. A year earlier in 2011, it was a relatively mild Christmas with temperatures in the 40s and no snow on the ground; so no white Christmas. However back in 2010; residents across Southeast Lower Michigan did enjoy a white Christmas with generally 1” to 6” of snow across as temperatures hovered in the 20s. Then further back in 2009, much of the Detroit area south did not have a white Christmas but points north across Flint, Saginaw and the thumb region generally had a 1” to 3” snow cover. Back in 2008, we saw a “sloppy, melting white” Christmas. That white Christmas involved the melting of a heavy snow cover from past snows that accumulated throughout December. The best of the snowstorms came before Christmas on the 19th (with another, lesser intense snow falling on the doorstep of Christmas, 23rd -24th). After, however, the heavy snow cover melted in earnest as milder air overspread the region Christmas Eve right through the 26th. Christmas of 2007, saw temperatures rise into the mid 40s to mid 50s a couple of days prior to Christmas and that, combined with light rain, pretty much took care of any hopes for a white Christmas as then, like the later Christmas of 2008, the  previous heavy snow cover melted (but this time in its entirety before Christmas). Some scattered light snow did return, skirting the landscape on Christmas Eve but most areas around Southeast Lower Michigan still only had a trace of snow for Christmas. At White Lake and Saginaw, however, the official inch of snow to make it a white Christmas was barely attained in 2007

Going back further to the Christmas of 2006; it was also mild and therefore, there was no white Christmas. In 2005, we just barely squeaked out a white Christmas (at Detroit Metro Airport, anyway) as a mild spell moved in just before Christmas along with rain, melting the snow down from 4” to 1” by Christmas morning. Originally, there had been 8” of snow on the ground on the 15th. The last really scenic (no slop)  with fresh white snow for Christmas occurred in 2004. A snowstorm brought heavy snow (ranging from 8”at Detroit to around 4” in Saginaw and Flint) on the 23rd, which left the region with a nice white cover for Christmas. It was also a cold Christmas also with highs only in the teens and overnight lows below zero. 




Looking over historical weather records of Christmases past since 1900, a wide range of weather conditions were found. While most people would like to believe that Christmas in the Detroit area should be snowy-white and picturesque, more often than not, they're not. Over the past 114 (including 1900) Christmases in Detroit, 54 (47%) have been what would be called "white" with an inch or better of snow on the ground. Keep in mind however, these records are for Detroit; farther north in Flint, the chance of a white Christmas jumps to 56 percent, while in Saginaw and the Thumb region it rises to 61 percent.

Based on the Detroit records, the Santa award for the "whitest" (most snow on the ground) and also the second snowiest Christmas (snow falling on Christmas) goes to the Christmas of 1951! Just over a foot /13 inches/ of snow was recorded on ground late Christmas day with 6.2 inches of the snow falling on Christmas. Temperatures held well below freezing (HI-26/LOW-18), so what snow did fall, remained. A close second to the "whitest" Christmas, occurred the Christmas after the big stock market crash in 1929. Eleven and a half inches of snow was measured December 25th, 1929 at Detroit but only three tenths /.3/ fell on Christmas. Recently, the Christmas of 2000 was very white indeed, but as to how much of a white Christmas (snow depths) is where the confusion came in. Let me elaborate, officially at Detroit Metro Airport, just six inches of snow was recorded on the ground at 7AM Christmas Day. However, just about anywhere west/north and in the city of Detroit itself, amounts were considerably higher with generally 8 to at least 15 inches. At the National Weather Service in White Lake, 15 inches was observed on the ground Christmas 2000 morning. No additional snow fell on Christmas Day (nor was anymore really wanted with the surplus already at hand). In any event, for Detroit and surrounding communities, the six inches at Detroit Metro Airport is the official snow depth used for the area.

The snowiest Christmas (most snow falling on Christmas), occurred in 1915 when 6.4 inches fell with a snow depth of seven inches on the ground. The timing of this snowfall was impeccable for Christmas with it actually starting Christmas Eve around sunset. Then, it continued to snow through the night into Christmas day. Actually, even more than the 6.4 inches fell from the entire storm with an additional 1.6 inches falling on Christmas Eve. This gave a snowstorm total of eight inches.  A little light rain did mix with the snow during the forenoon hours of Christmas but with a high temperature of only 33, it did little to mar the "Christmas card" scene. Speaking of "Christmas card" scenes, another heavy wet snowfall blanketed the area just after the turn of the century early on Christmas in 1901. The scene is described in the historical weather books as follows:


    "Night of the 24 - 25 cloudy; moist snow continued,
     heaviest between hours of 1:30 and 4:30 am, ended
     at 6 am. amount of precipitation .62 inches. The
     street cars ran all night to keep the tracks open.
     the snow adhered to trees etc, and made a very
     beautiful scene. Depth of snow on ground at 8 am,
     5.5 inches".


 This "Norman Rockwell Christmas scene" was further enhanced by a heavy coating of frost deposited on the buildings and windows Christmas Eve due to the moisture-laden air. But just like memories of some Christmases past, this majestic Christmas scene quickly faded (melted) during the day as temperatures climbed to 41 degrees, leaving just slush , slop and water. During the Christmases of 2002 and 2003, the weather was similar to both of the white Christmases mentioned above /1901 & 1915/. Here again in 2003, snow started falling Christmas Eve and lasted into at least part of, if not all of Christmas Day. On Christmas Day 2003, snowfalls ranged from at least an inch in the far southeast corner of Lower Michigan to as much as six inches across Detroit's northern suburbs, extending northward across Flint and Saginaw. On Christmas Day of 2002, total snowfall at Detroit Metro Airport was measured at 6.4” inches for both days (Christmas Eve and Christmas) with 3.4” of it falling on Christmas Day, itself. Across all of Southeast Lower Michigan snowfalls generally ranged from four to seven inches. A picture perfect Christmas was created both years with the freshly fallen snow. Like the Christmas snowstorms of 1901 and 1915, the snow Christmas 2002 was also somewhat heavy and wet with high temperatures in the lower 30s and lows only in the mid 20s.

Probably one of the slushiest and sloppiest Christmas Days happened in 1973. What started out as a white Christmas with a heavy 7 inch snow cover, quickly melted to a meager 2” slush mess by nightfall. To add insult to injury, it rained nearly a half an inch during the day.The wettest Christmas on record occurred in 1945 when 1.16 inches of rain fell. The rain actually began Christmas Eve as a light freezing rain and continued freezing until nearly dawn on Christmas, when the temperature pushed above freezing. Until the ice melted, a few tenths of an inch of ice coated everything by Christmas dawn. Needless to say, walking and driving early the Christmas of 1945 was treacherous but Santa was in and out of town in a flash!

Without a doubt, and still in the memories of long term inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan, is the warmest Christmas on record, the Christmas of 1982. It was as though the whole area was shipped to Florida for the holiday! The official record high at Detroit was 64 degrees, while Flint did one degree better at 65! These readings are about normal for Tallahassee, Florida! Scenes of shirt sleeved people with shorts running or riding bikes, instead of visions of sugar plums, made the Christmas of 1982 to some Michigan Christmas traditionalist, very hard to take.  This spring-like day was complete with scattered showers and, of all things, thunderstorms! Ironically, the bitterest cold Christmas came just a year later in 1983! Maybe a payback from Mother Nature for the warm weather we were treated to, the Christmas past? The temperature plummeted Christmas eve to a record low of -9 at Detroit and was accompanied by a stiff west wind averaging 25 to 30 mph, creating life threatening wind chills at times of near 40 below zero! Santa certainly brought the North Pole with him the Christmas of 1983, when he made his rounds very early that morning. In addition to the record low Christmas eve, another record low /-10/ was established during the very early morning hours of Christmas.

These Christmases past discussed are more the extreme than the norm across extreme Southeast Lower Michigan. But they do show the variable weather that can occur at Christmas (or any other time for that matter). The "normal" (or average) highs in extreme Southeast Lower Michigan Christmas Day are in the lower 30s, while lows average in the upper teens.

And now, I'd like to wish all who read this a very Merry Christmas and/or Holiday Season and the best in 2015! I plan on continuing my blog for the new year if the fates allow and look forward in reaching out to more people (and hear their comments and ideas) across the globe.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian