"Someone's Gonna' Get Clobbered" ~ But Who? Another Groundhog Snowstorm in Our Future

The talk in the weather-land is what will happen with an extended period of overrunning evolving midweek as a cold front slides slowly southeast and stalls over the Northern Ohio Valley. First let me say; this is not a typical low pressure system developing in the Ohio Valley, deepening and moving northeast into the Eastern Lakes and out of the area. True; heavy amounts of snow usually are associated with that system but its affect is shorter-lived, usually about 12-18 hours depending on movement. If the system gets "stacked" all levels of the atmosphere as it matures, it can hold longer. That usually happens in the Northern Lakes, Canada or Northeast.

Overrunning in a "Sling-Shot" Fashion

What is expected to happen this week is the cold front moves down into the Ohio Valley back into the southern Midwest and stalls. In the meantime; weak waves of low pressure and extensive overrunning occurs in and southwest to northeast trajectory as the front gets hung up and becomes parallel to this basic "sling-shot" pattern. Energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere are forecast to stream out from the South-Southwest Region to the Northern Ohio Valley. Years ago in my early days I learned about this "Sling Shot" pattern from a few of the Old Timer Forecasters when a upper air trough formed over the Southwest in the Arizona/New Mexico and energy ejects and streams northeast into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.  When copious moisture was available for a longer term stalled system, I can hear the phase "Someone's gonna' get Clobbered" back in the old days from a revered forecaster back in his day: Frank Grabowski of Livonia (I assume he since has passed away, he would be around 100). I always looked forward working with him as he was smart, good intuition, loved electronics, down to earth and sometimes unintentionally; humorous, one of my favorite forecasters - but I intentionally digress.

As cold Polar or Arctic air hovers over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes while milder air, sometimes with copious moisture, streams over the stationary front that forms at the surface and aloft; then causes precipitation mainly north of the front into the colder air as light to heavy light snow (depending on moisture that is available) many times from the Gulf of Mexico. The forecasters can be leery of this setup because it can last for long periods and what falls can be damaging; especially freezing rain as the cold air hugs the ground and above freezing air flows up in the atmosphere and liquid precipitation accumulates on the ground as ice. Forecasters can also be leery for another reason when this pattern was forecast; WHO will get clobbered? It's very easy to miss on this forecast because as we know, the atmosphere sometimes doesn't do what our models suggest. That is why it's better to step into this forecasted pattern (and various outcomes have already come up with different models) slowly and not be too extreme days ahead. Thus a Winter Storm Watch was issued by the NWSDTX today - and one of the reasons it was developed decades ago. 

Ok; so what are we in Southeast Lower Michigan looking at with this winter system? Well; I've pretty much explained the pattern expected so lets look at the model projections. As you will see there is a wide ranging snowfall amounts expected just in our region, alone. The important thing is this latest run, the models are coming more inline; especially our big ones GFS & Euro with NAM and Canadian joining the pack, Both Euro and Canadian have come more inline with GFS. All models are from 12Z /7am est/ Mon 1/31 except NAM which is the later run at 18Z. Also Euro snowfall is the standard 10/1 ratio. Snowfalls are expected to sharply fall off into the northern areas of Southeast Michigan.

Forecast; Updated (Wed 7Am 2/2/22) for wording and dropped snowfall totals somewhat.

Precipitation

Light rain will become mixed with/and change to snow from west to east overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Snow, heavy at times will continue through Wednesday and into Wednesday evening before diminishing off to intermittent snow into Thursday. 

Falling Temperatures

Temps will fall from the mid 30s and into 20s early Wednesday. Then slide down through the 20s and into the teens by later Wednesday. Mainly teens overnight Wednesday and Thursday.

Snowfalls - Highest amounts over the southern areas.

1-Ohio border north through Adrian and Monroe to I-94 corridor; Total snow accumulations 12 - 16" 

2-Ann Arbor into Detroit /north of I-94 to I-696 region/ including Detroit's immediate northern suburbs into Lake St Clair communities; 10 - 14”  

3- Further north extending from northern areas of 2, up into the Flint area across I-69 corridor through Lapeer into Port Huron and Southern Lake Huron communities; 6 - 10".

4- Across the Saginaw Valley into Thumb Region; 1-2” far northern region around Midland and Saginaw Bay and 3-6" Saginaw into mid Thumb area.

GFS

EURO

 

Keep in mind this is the standard 10/1 ratio snow to rain on the Euro not Kuchera which would be at least a few inches higher due to the colder atmosphere 12-15/1

Canadian

                                        

                                                                            

 NAM /18Z/

 

UK /SNOWFALL ONLY/ The UK is the outlier for snow over SE Mich with the heavier snowfall core further south.

 

From Heavy snow Discussion from WPC

Notable changes and updates are likely with this storm but in any event; prepare for winter hazardous weather and driving mid to late week.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian