8/22/14

Death and Unprecedented Damage From the Flood of 1986 in Central Lower Michigan Along With Other Notable Floods!

Because of the serious flooding over Southeast Lower Michigan in mainly
the metro Detroit area seen in August 2014; I've decided to run one of my
earliest articles with the NWS in regard to a more widespread serious
flooding event that took place over central Lower Michigan nearly 30
years ago on September 10-12th, 1986. I've added additional information
on it and other notable floods. 
 
From reports and wiki on the '86 Flood:
"Damage was unprecedented. Dam failure abounded with a total of 14 dams 
undermined and an addition 19 dams at risk during the event. Four major 
bridges failed. Thousands of acres of sugar beets, beans, potatoes, 
corn, and other vegetables were in ruin. A total of six people perished 
during the flood. Damage totaled US$500 million (1986 dollars), and 30 
counties were declared Federal disaster areas."


I was well into my career when this took place with much of the activity 
taking place over the NWS Flint's jurisdiction of Southeast Lower Michigan.
However; the NWS Forecast Office in Ann Arbor and NWS Detroit also aided 
this region with river warnings and radar information. I've also included
some historical news items on the storm at the end. 

 
 ...A Thumbnail Sketch of a Great Flood in Southeast Michigan... 
  By: Bill Deedler, Southeast Lower Michigan Weather Historian 
September, being somewhat of a transition month between summer 
and fall, generally brings a taming of the summer heat and
thunderstorms. Normal rainfall amounts drop off from the summer 
maximums and the weather, more often than not, goes into more of
a tranquil period before the fall storms begin to rage. But this
was not the case on September 10-12th, 1986 in the "Thumb Region"
of Southeast Lower Michigan.
In the worst flood devastation in 50 years, total damage was
estimated between 400 and 500 million dollars. Of that total,
around $120 million was crop damage, since the flood came near
harvest time. The entire flood area covered generally a 60 mile
wide band across the central portion of Lower Michigan. The
central axis of the flood area extended from north of Muskegon,
near Rothbury, east across all of Central Lower Michigan to near
Port Sanilac, in Southeast Lower Michigan's "Thumb Region". Some
major cities in Southeast Lower Michigan affected by the flood
included Saginaw, Bay City and Midland. It is interesting to note
that the city of Flint actually experienced more severe flooding
in September 1985 than it did in September 1986. 
Several estimates about the likelihood of such a flood like the
one in 1986 were tossed about such as, it was a "100 year flood"
or even a "500 year flood". But to the people of the flood
stricken area it is known as "The Flood"! A number of rain events
plagued this area through September but the main one occurred
September 10-12th, 1986. The flooding rains were triggered by
a nearly stationary front which, like the flood area itself,
stretched east-west across Central Lower Michigan. Warm,
moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico (enhanced by a
moisture plume from remnants of a tropical system over the
Eastern Pacific), streamed north and east out of the Midwest,
across the stationary front into Central Lower Michigan. To the
north, cooler, drier air remained entrenched over Upper Michigan.
The upper wind pattern across the Great Lakes was conducive in
holding the surface front nearly in place, resulting only in a
slow drift to the north through the entire period. This, in turn,
caused any available moisture pushing north across the front to
be wrung out and dumped persistently over the same general area.

An extensive area of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms with
torrential rains developed just north of the front and extended
west from Michigan into Wisconsin. As the moisture from the south
overran the front and fell as heavy rain over Central Lower
Michigan, it also traversed the same area from west to east
during the two day period. This process of precipitation
developing and repeatedly moving over the same area is known
all too well by meteorologists and hydrologists as "train-
echoing". This was the primary mechanism for the persistent 
heavy rainfall during this particular flood event. 
The rain began late Tuesday night, September 9th, over West-
Central Lower Michigan and steadily moved east across Central
Lower Michigan and into the "Thumb Region" of Southeast Lower
Michigan overnight. Rainfall during the September 10-12th period
over Central Lower Michigan averaged an incredible 6 to 12
inches, with even isolated reports of up to 14 inches. Much of
this deluge fell in a 12 hour period on the 11th. The heaviest
band of rain over Southeast Lower Michigan for the two day period
extended from the Alma area, east across Saginaw into Vassar. As
a result of these monsoon-like rains, several rivers surged over
their banks and established record heights (see table below). 
 
River Flood Stage Crest  (date) (old) Record  (date)
Tittabawassee
(Midland)
24 33.94  (9/13/1986) 29.70   (3/28/1916)
Saginaw
(Saginaw)
19 *24.16   (9/15/1986) *24.90   (3/30/1904)
Pine
(Alma)
8 12.82   (9/12/1986) 10.81   (3/13/1948)
Cass
(Vassar)
14 24.82   (9/12/1986) 20.80   (3/30/1948)
Cass
(Frankenmuth)
17 27.52   (9/12/1986)
23.30   (5/22/1996)
22.83   (3/6/1976)
*  Saginaw River at Saginaw did not establish a new record height
 
The Cass River at Vassar with a flood stage of 14 feet, rose to
an unprecedented (and almost unbelievable) 24.82 feet, or better
than 10 feet above flood stage! This level of nearly 25 feet is
even more astonishing, when you consider the normal height of the
river is about 4.5 feet. Likewise, the Cass River at Frankenmuth
rose to around 10 feet above its flood stage with a 27.52 feet
reading (flood stage is 17 feet). Coincidentally and interesting
to note, the Cass River at both Frankenmuth and Vassar has had
record (or near record) flooding every 10 years since 1976.
Like many locations in and near rivers and drainage areas, the
flooding in the town of Vassar was a nightmare! It was definitely
one of the hardest hit areas with all the downtown businesses and
about 50 homes being flooded. The flood waters reached to the
intersection of Main and Huron St. on the northwest side of the
Cass River and extended to the intersection of Huron and East St.
on the southeast side. The river rose so quickly and forcefully,
that some people barely had enough time to get out. Several
people awoke in Vassar to find their streets and cars covered 
in rushing water as the raging river surrounded their homes and
businesses. But further downriver on the Cass, at Frankenmuth,
vigorous sand bagging on top of permanent levees protected the
downtown area from any serious flooding. 
Several people lost their lives either directly or indirectly
due to the flood. Looking through newspaper articles and
related storm reports, at least 10 people died. The body of
a hunter was found on the bank of the Muskegon River, a woman
who drove her car off a flooded road into the Cass river, two
children playing near flooded streams were swept away, two more 
people drowned while in boats, falling overboard; and another 
two men were electrocuted while using sump pumps in flooded
rooms. Sadly, the flood also took its toll on human life in
another, devastating way. Two farmers, after seeing all their 
crops under water, committed suicide. Close to 100 people were
injured in the flood, whether it be during preventive flood
procedures or during cleanup activities.
 Across Central Lower Michigan, 22 counties were declared disaster
areas. This encompassed nearly 14,000 square miles and where 1.8
million people lived.  Even though damage was estimated between
400 to 500 million dollars, it hard to put a dollar figure on the
huge amount of personal items these people lost and also, the
emotional scars some still carry with them. To give an idea the
volume of water that fell over Saginaw River basin, it was
estimated by the state hydrologist (at that time) that if that
water could be drained into Lake St. Clair, it would raise its
level 10 feet!  The Bay City Times, in retrospect, summed up
"The Flood" well by telling their readers to just scan the "D"
listings in the dictionary,"its all there, Downpours, Drenching,
Devastation and Disaster"! 
Two key elements that contribute to flash flooding are rainfall
intensity and duration. Other factors that play important roles
include soil conditions, topography and ground cover. Flash
floods cause more deaths each year in the United States than
either lightning, tornadoes or hurricanes! In the 20 year
period from 1972-1991, on an average, 146 people were killed
every year from flash flooding. Lightning claimed 80 lives per
year during the period, tornadoes 69, and hurricanes 17.
The National Weather service issues Flash Flood Warnings when
flash flooding is occurring or imminent. Remember the following
when you are in a flood situation...
 
1)  Get out of areas subject to flooding, including terrain low
    spots, dips, canyons, washes, etc.
2)  Avoid already flooded and high velocity flow areas. Do not
    attempt to cross flowing streams
3)  If driving, be aware that the road bed may not be intact
    under flood waters. Turn around and go another way. NEVER
    drive through flooded roadways!
4)  If your vehicle stalls, leave it immediately and seek
    higher ground. Rapidly rising water may engulf the vehicle
    and its occupants and sweep them away.
5)  Be especially cautious at night when its harder to recognize
    flood dangers.
6)  Do not camp or park your vehicle along streams and washes,
    particularly during threatening weather conditions.
7)  Do not let children play around high water, storm drains
    rivers or creeks.
8)  If advised to evacuate, do so IMMEDIATELY!
9)  Move to a safe area before its access it cut off by high      
      water.
10) Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, television or radio for the
      latest warnings and information.
 
 
Other information and news items on this great flood & other notable floods 

Flood of the century devastated area in '86

Hundreds Flee Flood After Heavy Rain Bursts Dam in Michigan

The page below also discusses the historic floods of 1904 (after our coldest winter and heavy  snowfalls) along with the Flood of 1947

Floods; National Water Summary 1988-89 —Floods and Droughts: MICHIGAN

Finally, a "thumbnail sketch" of Floods in the United States: 1901–2000



 
Will the Autumn of 2014 continue our trend of below normal temperatures and normal to above normal
rains? See my Fall Outlook early September along with my new proposed endeavor for myself and
area teachers. 
 
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian 
 

8/11/14

Historic Rainfall & Flooding Over Areas of Metro Detroit - New Record DAY Rainfall at Detroit for the Month of August But Not for All Time

Day Record Rainfall for Detroit in the month of August with 4.57" was reported at DTW on August 11th, 2014 up to 10 pm. Previous record was back in 1926 with nearly the same... 4.51" on August 17th, 1926. However this is NOT the record of all time for a date...that record also occurred in the 1920s...occurring back on July 31, 1924 with 4.74" That specific  record should hold into midnight. More recently; back in 1998 on July 7th the NWS @ Detroit Metro Arpt recorded 4.34" of rain on that date.

Therefore; the historic rain recorded at DTW today (8/11/14) was the second highest rainfall for any date since records began. The highest again for a day/date; 4.74" on 7/31/24.



                              Record Crest of Clinton River @ near Clinton Twp


The Clinton River broke its all time record flood stage following Monday's heavy rain. At its peak, the flow was approx 12,000 cubic feet per second, which is equivalent to 84,000 gal/s, which is 5 million gallons a minute! /NWS-DTX/


Historic Flooding and Storm/Rainfall Reports for August 11 2014 /DTX/


Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

8/2/14

Extreme Temperature Julys Are Becoming More Commonplace Across Southeast Lower Michigan

In the past five years, three Julys have placed on the top 20 warmest Julys while two have placed on the top coolest! And out of those; three have placed in the top six coolest or warmest Julys. So, basically it's been feast or famine lately for July temperatures over Southeast Lower Michigan.

June and July's temperature statistics are in across Southeast Lower Michigan and while cool, not terribly so. Actually June was above normal so it's really July that we have to contend with...

JULY'S COOL TEMPERATURES
 
DETROIT
AVG. MAXIMUM     79.9              83.4    -3.5
AVG. MINIMUM     59.9              63.9    -4.0
MEAN             69.9              73.6    -3.7    8TH COOLEST
DAYS MAX >= 90      1               4.5    -3.5

FLINT

AVG. MAXIMUM     79.1              81.9    -2.8
AVG. MINIMUM     57.5              59.2    -1.7
MEAN             68.3              70.5    -2.2    9TH COOLEST
DAYS MAX >= 90      0               2.8    -2.8

SAGINAW

AVG. MAXIMUM     78.4              81.8    -3.4
AVG. MINIMUM     58.4              60.2    -1.8
MEAN             68.4              71.0    -2.6    11TH COOLEST
DAYS MAX >= 90      0               3.0    -3.0
 

SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN /3 CLIMATE SITES/

 

DTW  FNT  MBS   AVE NOR DEP

69.9 + 68.3 + 68.4 = 68.9 - 71.7 = - 2.8   ~  10TH COOLEST

LAST TIME THIS COOL OR COOLER: 2009

68.9 + 65.6 + 66.0 = 66.8 - 71.7 = - 4.9   ~  2ND COOLEST

 

 

So as you can see while cool this July, it was nowhere as cool as in 2009 which was Detroit's 3rd coolest July and Flint and Saginaw's coolest of all record time. One of the main reasons it felt so cool this July is that we are coming down off two back to back hot Julys; 2011 & 2012! Last July /2013/ averaged slightly above normal.

 

Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
1 67.1 1891 79.3 2011 65.6 2009 78.0 1921 66.0 2009 77.5 1921
2 68.8 1992 79.0 1955 66.9 1992 77.7 1935 66.2 1992 76.8 1916
3 68.9 2009 79.0 2012 67.3 1967 76.8 2011 67.1 1924 76.4 2012
4 68.9 1967 79.0 1921 67.3 1962 76.7 1934 67.2 1920 76.2 1935
5 69.6 1971 77.9 1916 67.4 1971 76.5 1955 67.3 1945 76.1 2011
6 69.6 1875 77.7 1931 67.4 1960 76.1 2012 67.5 1962 76.0 1931

 

Even more notable in the recent past since the millennium, eight out of 15 Julys (including July 2000) placed either in the top 20 coolest or warmest July listings at all three climate sites! Therefore just over half of the last 15 Julys /53%/ made the top 20 lists. Extraordinary when you consider records go back into the early 1900s at Flint and Saginaw and 1870s in Detroit! In additions; temperature deviations during the summer months are less wide or exaggerated by nature. The hotter Julys have it over the cooler ones thus far; about 5 to 3 in the past 15 years anyway.

 















Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Julys in Southeast Lower Michigan
 
Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
1 67.1 1891 79.3 2011 65.6 2009 78.0 1921 66.0 2009 77.5 1921
2 68.8 1992 79.0 1955 66.9 1992 77.7 1935 66.2 1992 76.8 1916
3 68.9 2009 79.0 2012 67.3 1967 76.8 2011 67.1 1924 76.4 2012
4 68.9 1967 79.0 1921 67.3 1962 76.7 1934 67.2 1920 76.2 1935
5 69.6 1971 77.9 1916 67.4 1971 76.5 1955 67.3 1945 76.1 2011
6 69.6 1875 77.7 1931 67.4 1960 76.1 2012 67.5 1962 76.0 1931
7 69.7 1920 77.1 1988 67.5 2000 76.1 1931 67.5 1956 75.9 1955
8 69.9 2014 76.8 1999 67.6 1996 75.9 1936 67.8 1950 75.9 1936
9 69.9 1924 76.8 1901 68.3 2014 75.8 1933 67.9 2000 75.8 1988
10 69.9 1884 76.6 2010 68.3 1950 75.5 1987 68.2 1965 75.5 1934
11 70.2 2000 76.5 2002 68.4 2004 75.2 1988 68.4 2014 75.3 1933
12 70.3 1882 76.5 1952 68.4 1965 74.9 2002 68.4 1985 74.3 2010
13 70.4 1979 76.2 1949 68.6 1956 74.5 1949 68.5 2004 74.2 1930
14 70.4 1965 76.2 1935 68.6 1968 74.5 1939 68.6 1981 74.1 1983
15 70.4 1915 76.1 2006 68.6 1945 74.2 2010 68.6 1925 74.1 1937
16 70.4 1895 76.0 1987 69.0 1969 74.0 1983 68.7 1947 73.9 1987
17 70.6 1996 75.9 1964 69.1 1947 73.8 1977 68.8 1979 73.5 2006
18 70.6 1978 75.9 1887 69.2 1924 73.7 1938 68.8 1915 73.5 2002
19 70.7 1984 75.7 1977 69.4 1997 73.5 1952 69.1 1978 73.3 1998
20 70.7 1945 75.5 1993 69.4 1954 73.4 1940 69.1 1951 73.3 1966
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to January 1874.












 

Another thing I'll throw out there while on the subject of top 20 lists; the top 20 lists have also been busy in the winter for coldest/warmest months and snowfall. Why? One thing is a more amplified upper jet stream, more blocking and stormier pattern. Global climate change or natural cyclical climate pattern changes /NAO, AO, PDO, AMO, EL NINO, LA NINA,  MJO/ or some of both? Since it is such a short trend where climate change is concerned, I lean more on the side with natural cyclical changes in regard to the past 15 years. Time will tell....

 

 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian