A awkward phasing of the jet streams over the eastern Great Lakes should ramp up a storm center over that region Tuesday. For the past several runs, models have come into a general agreement on the storm. While the storm will be born over the Eastern Lakes, the worst of the system will be further east in the Northeast and New England, then later maturing over Eastern Quebec. This familiar pattern, seen with assertiveness the past several winters, has generally been shy to visit thus far this winter.
The southern jet will supply a dose of energy and most of the moisture, while the northern jet brings it's own energy kick and more important for snow, colder air. Look for the colder air to phase into the southern stream in time enough to bring some accumulating wet snow to Southeast Lower Michigan. However, with the main moisture just clipping our area along with temperatures hovering in the lower to mid 30s on Tuesday, don't look for more than a light snowfall over the region.
As temperatures fall later Tuesday and winds increase, driving could become dicier but snowfall should taper in the evening. As the storm deepens over the Northeast Tuesday night however, colder northerly winds streaming across Lake Huron will gin up snow shower activity to the lee of the lake, mainly across the Thumb.
With the absence of major snow systems this winter thus far, I look for this one to provide the most snow seen thus far, albeit light, in the 1" to possibly 3" category and the majority of that over the eastern counties. As out weather pattern picks up some steam in the fast zonal flow, a clipper or two should race across the Lakes later in the week and provide some more possible light snows.
