Traveling during the period overnight Thursday /22nd/ into early Christmas Eve /24th/ will be challenging especially Friday into Friday night. Sharply colder air will blast the region early Friday as the storm center intensifies and "bombs out" over the Southern Great Lakes. To be considered a bombogenensis event the central pressure of the low pressure would have to deepen 24 MB in 24 hours by definition. It should come close to or exceed that as the center gets into the region.
What's really threatening with the system is the strong, frigid winds accompanying the storm. Wind gusts will be strongest on Friday and Friday night; possibly reaching the 45 - 55 mph range. Major concern will be flash freezing on the roads creating hazardous driving conditions along with damaging winds and local power outages, certainly a risk.
While most snow amounts shouldn't be on the higher side (better than a foot) as with most major storms over Southeast Lower Michigan; snow totals likely will range from 4" - 9" with the highest amounts over the western/highland regions and downwind of lake Huron. I've posted parts of the the GFS and Euro /12z/ just to give an idea of the range of weather conditions projected at this time /Wed-2pm/. At this time I'd side closer to the European expectations for weather conditions and local snow amounts with GFS greater than and also less than the European.
It should be noted here that this is under the assumption the low will be progressive and move fairly quickly through the Southern and Eastern Great Lakes. I am concerned about the low pressure deepening and holding a bit longer over the Eastern Great Lakes/Southeast Lower Michigan/Lake Huron region. This would enhance snowfall with Lake Effect snow with the bitter cold wind extending from the Lake down across the Thumb Region Southward into parts of Metro Detroit. The Great Lakes are relatively warm with the normal to mild fall and the lack of intense storms; resulting in somewhat less temperature mixing of deeper waters. The relatively warmer Lakes are a favored region; especially in the fall into winter for low pressure intensification and thus; breeding ground for these storms.
Variability in intensity, location, movement resulting in,duration and precipitation (snow ratios) is causing a variation in model output. In any event; the Arctic blast will cause extensive blowing and drifting snow with local ground blizzard (little of no snow falling) conditions creating whiteouts with limited visibilities.
GFS Thursday Eve thru Christmas Day
EURO Thursday Eve thru Christmas Day
GFS Upper Wind Jet Structure Thursday Eve thru Christmas Day
EURO Upper Wind Jet Structure Thursday Eve thru Christmas Day
GFS Snowfall Thursday Eve thru Christmas Day
EURO Snowfall Thursday Eve thru Christmas Day
Look for an update Thursday and Friday before the Christmas Holiday
Making weather fun while we all learn,
