MORNING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1139 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 Values represent yesterday`s highs/lows over the last 12 hours and precipitation over the last 24 hours ending at 7 am EST. .BR DTX 0216 ES DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ :SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS :.................................................................... : STATION MAX / MIN / 7 AM / 24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW : NAME TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP / PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH :.................................................................... WHKM4: NWS White Lake : 1 / -23 / -18 / 0.00 / 0.0 / 15 ADG : Adrian Airport : 5 / -13 / -11 / 0.00 123M4: Ann Arbor : 7 / -11 / -11 / 0.00 / 0.0 / 11 BAX :*Bad Axe Airport : 1 / -21 / -12 / CFS :*Caro Airport-Tuscola: 0 / -24 / -16 / DET : Detroit City Airport: 8 / -9 / -6 / 0.00 DTW : Detroit Metro Airprt: 7 / -9 / -9 / 0.00 / 0.0 / 13 FNT : Flint Bishop Airport: 2 / -21 / -10 / 0.00 / 0.0 / 9 ONZ :*Grosse Ile Airport : 7 / -9 / -6 / OZW :*Howell Airport : 0 / -16 / -11 / DUH :*Lambertvilee Airport: 5 / -8 / -6 / D95 :*Lapeer Dupont Airprt: 1 / -25 / -18 / IKW :*Midland Airport : 4 / -16 / -5 / TTF :*Monroe Airport : 3 / -13 / -11 / RNP :*Owosso Airport : 0 / -17 / -7 / PTK : Pontiac Airport : 2 / -17 / -13 / 0.00 P58 : Port Hope : 4 / -12 / -7 / 0.02 PHN :*Port Huron Airport : 3 / -26 / -24 / MBS : Saginaw - Tri-Cities: 2 / -11 / -3 / 0.00 / 0.0 / 11 HYX :*Saginaw-Harry Browne: 3 / -11 / -6 / VLL :*Oakland/Troy Airport: 7 / -5 / -5 / .END *The temperature data for these sites above represent the highest and lowest temperatures that were reported on the METAR observations that transmit three times an hour and may not represent the actual high or low for that site. These sites do not measure precipitation. ..................................................................... The following Cooperative Observer sites report from midnight to midnight EDT. .BR DTX 0216 ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ :SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS :.................................................................... : STATION MAX / MIN / MIDNITE/24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW : NAME TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP /PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH :.................................................................... MDLM4: Midland : 5 / -15 / -6 / 0.00 / 0.0 / 4 PRHM4: Port Huron : 4 / -9 / -8 / 0.01 / 0.5 / 8 SGNM4: Saginaw 5W : 2 / -14 / -13 / 0.00 / M / 11 ..................................................................... Cooperative Observation values are for approximately 24 hours from previous OB time to current OB time. .BR DTX 0216 ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ .................................................................. : STATION OB /MAX / MIN /OB /24-HR /SNOW/SNOW : NAME TIME /TEMP/ TEMP /TEMP/PRECIP/FALL/DEPTH :.................................................................. : ***BAY COUNTY*** AUBM4: Auburn :0800/ 5 / -16 / -2 / 0.00/ M/6 ***MIDLAND COUNTY*** OILM4: Oil City :M / M / -18 / -7 / 0.00/ M/10 : ***HURON COUNTY*** BDAM4: Bad Axe :0635/ 1 / -15 / -10 / T/ T/9 FLNM4: Filion 5NNW :0630/ 1 / -19 / -9 / 0.01/ 0.1/9 POAM4: Port Austin :0715/ 1 / -15 / -8 / T/ T/6 : ***SAGINAW COUNTY*** MERM4: Merril 2E :0800/ 5 / -12 / -4 / 0.00/ M/7 SAGM4: Saginaw :0800/ 4 / -14 / -7 / 0.00/ 0.0/6 : ***TUSCOLA COUNTY*** CARM4: Caro :M / M / -24 / -15 / 0.00/ M/6 CSSM4: Cass City :M / M / -26 / -17 / 0.00/ 0.0/M : ***SANILAC COUNTY*** LEXM4: Lexington :0745/ 4 / -14 / -12 / T/ T/10 SANM4: Sandusky :0707/ 1 / -16 / -14 / 0.00/ M/12
: ***SHIAWASSEE COUNTY*** CORM4: Corunna 2NE :0600/ 0 / -16 / -14 / 0.00/ M/8 DRNM4: Durand :0800/ 1 / -19 / -7 / T/ T/7 OWSM4: Owosso :0700/ 2 / -14 / -5 / 0.00/ M/9 : ***GENESEE COUNTY*** BUNM4: Burton 4N :0700/ -2 / -12 / -11 / 0.00/ M/9 LIDM4: Linden :0713/ 0 / -18 / -12 / T/ T/7 GODM4: Goodrich :0730/ 5 / -20 / -10 / 0.00/ M/10 : ***LAPEER COUNTY*** LPEM4: Lapeer 2W :0900/ 4 / -25 / -7 / 0.00/ 0.0/8 LPRM4: Lapeer :0730/ 2 / -23 / -16 / 0.00/ 0.0/11 : ***ST. CLAIR COUNTY*** YALM4: Yale :0700/ 2 / -25 / -21 / 0.00/ 0.0/17 : ***LIVINGSTON COUNTY*** WHLM4:Whitmore LK 1N :0900/ 4 / -21 / -8 / 0.00/ M/8 : ***OAKLAND COUNTY*** FARM4: Farmington :0730/ 6 / -14 / -13 / 0.00/ M/6 : ***MACOMB COUNTY*** RICM4: Richmond 4NNW :0800/ -1 / -24 / -19 / 0.00/ 0.0/0 : ***WASHTENAW COUNTY*** AASM4: Ann-Arbor SE :0730/ 7 / -15 / -13 / 0.00/ M/11 CHLM4: Chelsea :0930/ 3 / -21 / -8 / 0.00/ M/10 MCHM4: Manchester :0654/ 5 / -17 / -17 / 0.00/ 0.0/10 SLNM4: Saline 4SW :0900/ 7 / -14 / -4 / 0.00/ M/6 SALM4: Saline :0810/ 7 / -17 / -14 / 0.00/ M/10 : ***WAYNE COUNTY*** DBNM4: Dearborn #2 :M / M / -9 / -4 / 0.00/ M/7 DRBM4: U of M Dearborn :0900/ 7 / -14 / -2 / 0.00/ M/10 GPFM4: Grosse Pte Farms :0800/ 5 / -10 / -6 / 0.00/ M/13 WYTM4: Wyandotte :0800/ / / / 0.00/ 0.0/13 : ***LENAWEE COUNTY*** BLIM4: Blissfield 1SW :M / M / M / M / 0.00/ M/M MRIM4: Morenci :0730/ 8 / -11 / -9 / 0.00/ 0.0/5 TECM4: Tecumseh :0630/ 8 / -13 / -11 / 0.00/ M/7 TIPM4: Tipton 2WNW :0800/ 8 / -13 / -7 / 0.00/ M/9 : ***MONROE COUNTY*** DNDM4: Dundee :0730/ 4 / -12 / -12 / 0.00/ M/5 MLIM4: Milan :0800/ 5 / -13 / -11 / 0.00/ M/M MNRM4: Monroe :0645/ 6 / -12 / -12 / 0.00/ 0.0/8 .END *All data above is preliminary and has not undergone final quality control by the National Climatic Data Center /NCDC/. Therefore...this data is subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at www.ncdc.noaa.gov.
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Original post - 2/9/15
Earlier guidance in my Winter Outlook back in November suggested the worst of the winter would unfold the latter part. Statistically, this is roughly mid Jan-Feb for the Dec - Feb meteorological winter ave and also; the latter half of the Nov - Mar cold season. This call was even in spite of a predicted cold and resultant cold Nov. In addition; the snowfall for the season was suggested it would be back-end loaded with best chance for above normal snowfall mid - late season. After a long mild December; I discussed the changes evolving in the teleconnections and oscillations /EPO, NAO, AO/ and the resultant upper air projections for January.
As we move into mid February; the colder pattern has now held since January and the snowier pattern arrived, albeit gradually over the region with the apex coming in our big snowstorm early last week, Feb 1st & 2nd. So therefore; what does the latter part of the February and March (for the cold season) suggesting? As the name implies; COLD. Both the Winter Outlook projections and near and long term models suggest below normal temperatures for Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan, especially the eastern Great Lakes! First off in this particular blog; let's look at the Near Term; the next week to 10 days - or until later February.
Near Term Weather Outlook; Below to well below normal temperatures (normal
highs/lows/means for mid February; mid 30s/lower 20s/upper 20s)
Model consensus with EPO trend support continues to advertize very cold, Arctic air surging across the Polar regions from Siberia into the eastern half of Canada and the U.S. Cold wave after cold wave of air is projected into the Lakes Region beginning mid week, then over the week end and again, mid next week with some slight moderation between the frigid cold surges! There is also the chance of some significant measurable snow over the weekend and again early - mid next week. If notable snows look likely; I'll update the blog on that account.
In an event; each one of these Arctic outbreak fronts will be followed by massive arctic high pressure "icebergs" which will float down on the "Siberian Express". Besides the snow and lake effect snow showers; blustery, strong gusty northerly winds will announce the arrival of the bitter cold air masses. At this time, the worst of the weather /cold & possible snow/ is expected over the Valentines weekend and possibly again, early - mid next week. Be prepared for what I believe will be the coldest and subsequent, roughest part of the winter with low wind chills! Depending on cloud cover and wind; several days of single figure and teen highs with below zero morning lows are quite possible from mid week until mid week. Of course; as with any weather projection; particulars can change somewhat (warmer, colder, more snow, less snow) but I'm fairly confident with this projected pattern; so be prepared for at least some of the coldest weather this winter.
Of course this means more strain on heating appliances, cars and other machinery and more rapid ice development on the Great Lakes...all that is not needed.
Stay tuned for updates and Part II; Longer Term - March's Outlook!
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
