Well below normal temperatures are firmly entrenched over Southeast Lower Michigan, some overnight lows were as much as 20 degrees below normal. Unfortunately; I don't have any better news into the weekend with temperatures still expected to fall into the lower 30s to lower 40s Saturday and possibly now, even Sunday. Scattered frost is also likely in open areas and away from the lakes and major cities. See the records I posted below under 5/14 update below as a reference. While I still feel most records will stay intact, there is the risk of falling in or near record territory at some locations over the weekend.
Take a look at the cold overnight lows Friday morning....
000 ASUS63 KDTX 161521 RTPDTX MORNING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1121 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014 VALUES REPRESENT YESTERDAY`S HIGHS....LOW OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 8 AM EDT .BR DTX 0516 ES DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/TA/PPDRZZ :SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS :....................................................... : STATION MAX / MIN / 8 AM / 24-HR : NAME TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP / PRECIP :....................................................... WHKM4: NWS WHITE LAKE : 54 / 31 / 36 / 0.37 123M4: ANN ARBOR : 57 / 35 / 35 / 0.36 ADG : ADRIAN AIRPORT : 60 / 35 / 38 / 0.19 BAX :*BAD AXE AIRPORT : 48 / 37 / 40 / CFS :*CARO AIRPORT-TUSCOLA: 50 / 38 / 40 / DET : DETROIT CITY AIRPORT: 67 / 38 / 41 / 0.43 DTW : DETROIT METRO ARPT : 64 / 36 / 38 / 0.13 FNT : FLINT BISHOP AIRPORT: 52 / 36 / 39 / 0.21 ONZ :*GROSSE ILE AIRPORT : 63 / 37 / 39 / OZW :*HOWELL AIRPORT : 49 / 33 / 37 / DUH :*LAMBERTVILLE AIRPORT: 63 / 36 / 41 / D95 :*LAPEER DUPONT AIRPRT: 51 / 35 / 37 / IKW :*MIDLAND AIRPORT : 48 / 38 / 40 / TTF :*MONROE AIRPORT : 63 / 36 / 39 / RNP :*OWOSSO AIRPORT : M / M / M / PTK : PONTIAC AIRPORT : 56 / 34 / 37 / 0.34 P58 : PORT HOPE : 49 / 37 / 38 / 0.33 PHN :*PORT HURON AIRPORT : 64 / 36 / 39 / MBS : SAGINAW - TRI-CITIES: 49 / 37 / 39 / 0.28 HYX :*SAGINAW-HARRY BROWNE: 50 / 36 / 37 / VLL :*OAKLAND/TROY AIRPORT: 62 / 37 / 38 / YIP : YPSILANTI WILLOW RUN: 66 / 37 / 40 / 0.24 .END *THE TEMPERATURE DATA FOR THESE SITES ABOVE REPRESENT THE HIGHEST AND LOWEST TEMPERATURES THAT WERE REPORTED ON THE METAR OBSERVATIONS THAT TRANSMIT THREE TIMES AN HOUR AND MAY NOT REPRESENT THE ACTUAL HIGH OR LOW FOR THAT SITE. THESE SITES DO NOT MEASURE PRECIPITATION. ..................................................................... THE FOLLOWING COOPERATIVE OBSERVER SITES REPORT FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT THE PREVIOUS DAY. .BR DTX 0516 ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ :SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS :....................................................... : STATION MAX / MIN / 12 AM /24-HR : NAME TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP /PRECIP :....................................................... ARNM4: ADRIAN : 59 / 41 / 42 / 0.54 MILM4: MILFORD - GM GROUNDS: 54 / 41 / 41 / 0.63 MDLM4: MIDLAND : 58 / 37 / 37 / 1.39 MTCM4: MT CLEMENS SELFRIDGE: 65 / 45 / 45 / 0.88 PRHM4: PORT HURON : 64 / 43 / 46 / 0.94 SGNM4: SAGINAW 5W : 48 / 37 / 37 / 1.58 ..................................................................... COOPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS VALUES ARE FOR APPROXIMATELY THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS FROM YESTERDAYS OBSERVATION TIME TO TODAY`S OBSERVATION TIME. .BR DTX 0516 ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ :SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS :......................................................... : STATION OB /MAX / MIN / OB /24-HR : NAME TIME /TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP /PRECIP :......................................................... : ***MIDLAND COUNTY*** : ***BAY COUNTY*** : ***HURON COUNTY*** BDAM4: BAD AXE :0725/ 48 / 37 / 38 / 0.33 FLNM4: FILION 5NNW :M / M / M / M / 0.26 POAM4: PORT AUSTIN :0747/ 48 / 36 / 37 / 0.30 PHPM4: PORT HOPE :0800/ 50 / 36 / 38 / 0.40 : ***SAGINAW COUNTY*** CHSM4: CHESANING :0730/ / / / 0.43 FKMM4: FRANKENMUTH 1SE :0740/ 49 / 35 / 36 / 0.20 MERM4: MERRIL 2E :0800/ 49 / 35 / 38 / M SAGM4: SAGINAW :0800/ 48 / 35 / 37 / 0.38 : ***TUSCOLA COUNTY*** CARM4: CARO :0710/ 56 / 35 / 36 / 0.25 VSSM4: VASSAR :0700/ 50 / 36 / 37 / 0.34 : ***SANILAC COUNTY*** LEXM4: LEXINGTON :0725/ 55 / 36 / 39 / 0.60 SANM4: SANDUSKY :0639/ 53 / 36 / 37 / 0.40 : ***SHIAWASSEE COUNTY*** CORM4: CORUNNA 2NE :0600/ 54 / 36 / 36 / 0.79 DRNM4: DURAND :0800/ 49 / 34 / 37 / 0.21 : ***GENESEE COUNTY*** BUNM4: BURTON 4N :0700/ 54 / 33 / 37 / 0.30 FLTM4: FLINT 7W :0800/ 51 / 35 / 38 / 0.22 LIDM4: LINDEN :0720/ 49 / 34 / 37 / M GODM4: GOODRICH :0730/ 51 / 33 / 37 / 0.16 : ***LAPEER COUNTY*** LPEM4: LAPEER 2W :0900/ 52 / 34 / 38 / 0.04 LPRM4: LAPEER :0730/ 52 / 35 / 37 / 0.30 : ***ST. CLAIR COUNTY*** YALM4: YALE :0630/ 59 / 35 / 37 / 0.47 : ***LIVINGSTON COUNTY*** HOWM4: HOWELL :0800/ 52 / 34 / 39 / 0.31 WHLM4:WHITMORE LK 1N :0700/ 54 / 35 / 35 / 0.40 : ***OAKLAND COUNTY*** FARM4: FARMINGTON :0730/ 59 / 34 / 36 / 0.25 PONM4: PONTIAC :1052/ 57 / 35 / 43 / 0.02 WSBM4: WEST BLOOMFIELD :0615/ / / / 0.30 : ***MACOMB COUNTY*** RICM4: RICHMOND 4NNW :0800/ 62 / 36 / 39 / 0.62 : ***WASHTENAW COUNTY*** AASM4: ANN ARBOR-SOUTHEAST:0730/ 59 / 35 / 37 / 0.28 CHLM4: CHELSEA :0943/ 52 / 34 / 42 / 0.02 MCHM4: MANCHESTER :0705/ 56 / 33 / 34 / 0.36 SLNM4: SALINE 4SW :0900/ 57 / 26 / 37 / 0.09 SALM4: SALINE :0815/ 60 / 35 / 41 / 0.24 : ***WAYNE COUNTY*** DBNM4: DEARBORN :0600/ 64 / 37 / 37 / 0.20 DRBM4:U OF M DEARBORN :0900/ 63 / 34 / 41 / 0.04 GPFM4: GROSSE PTE FARMS :0800/ 64 / 36 / 39 / 0.59 WYTM4: WYANDOTTE :0800/ / / / 0.15 : ***LENAWEE COUNTY*** BLIM4: BLISSFIELD :0630/ / / / 0.18 MRIM4: MORENCI :0730/ 60 / 32 / 35 / 0.27 TECM4: TECUMSEH :0630/ 60 / 33 / 35 / 0.42 TIPM4: TIPTON 2WNW :0800/ 58 / 33 / 38 / 0.26 : ***MONROE COUNTY*** DNDM4: DUNDEE :0700/ 62 / 35 / 36 / 0.22 MLIM4: MILAN :0605/ 62 / 35 / 35 / 0.26 MNRM4: MONROE :0900/ 62 / 35 / 43 / 0.08 NWPM4: NEWPORT 4SSE :0700/ 61 / 37 / 37 / 0.19 .ENDUpdate 5/14
First things first; stormy weather over the past few days brought scattered damaging thunderstorm winds and flooding rains across Southeast Lower Michigan. Here is the Severe Weather Report for Tuesday, 5/13 from the NWS in White Lake /DTX/. None of the three "tornadoes" reported during Monday's (5/12) storms were ever confirmed.
Below this summary, is the rest of the week's outlook.
Severe Thunderstorm Summary for May 13, 2014
Severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front on the afternoon of May 13, 2013. Storms raced east across most of Southeast Lower Michigan, causing a broad area of damage. Several trees and power lines were downed, along with reports of wind gust measurements ranging from 50 to 60 mph.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0232 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW BRIGHTON 42.56N 83.83W
05/13/2014 LIVINGSTON MI AMATEUR RADIO
THE TOP OF A 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE WAS BLOWN OFF.
0252 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE PINCKNEY 42.44N 83.90W
05/13/2014 LIVINGSTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER
TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN
0254 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW ANN ARBOR 42.28N 83.77W
05/13/2014 WASHTENAW MI LAW ENFORCEMENT
HURON - DEXTER AND MAPLE STREETS...6 HOMES WITH
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.
0255 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSW ANN ARBOR 42.23N 83.76W
05/13/2014 WASHTENAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER
3 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWNS ELLSWORTH AND LOHR
0258 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW ANN ARBOR 42.27N 83.75W
05/13/2014 WASHTENAW MI PUBLIC
LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND FELL ON TOP OF DETATTACHED GARAGE
AT MAIN AND KOCH ROADS
0302 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N YPSILANTI 42.32N 83.63W
05/13/2014 WASHTENAW MI EMERGENCY MNGR
NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN ON WIRES.
0302 PM TSTM WND DMG UBLY 43.71N 82.93W
05/13/2014 HURON MI 911 CALL CENTER
DOWNED POWER LINES
0311 PM FLOOD FLINT 43.02N 83.69W
05/13/2014 GENESEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER
MULTIPLE STREETS FLOODED- VEHICLES STRANDED NEAR ATHERTON
AND HEMPHILL ROADS WEST OF SAGINAW STREET.
0311 PM TSTM WND GST 4 ESE ANN ARBOR 42.26N 83.66W
05/13/2014 E65.00 MPH WASHTENAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER
NO REPORT OF DAMAGE AT THIS TIME.
0314 PM TSTM WND GST OXFORD 42.82N 83.25W
05/13/2014 E60.00 MPH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
FENCE BLOWN OVER
0316 PM TSTM WND GST ROMULUS 42.22N 83.37W
05/13/2014 M58.00 MPH WAYNE MI ASOS
0318 PM TSTM WND DMG FARMINGTON HILLS 42.49N 83.38W
05/13/2014 OAKLAND MI BROADCAST MEDIA
LARGE TREE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED OFF RADAR.
0330 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S PETERSBURG 41.85N 83.71W
05/13/2014 MONROE MI 911 CALL CENTER
POWER LINES DOWN
0332 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S DUNDEE 41.88N 83.67W
05/13/2014 MONROE MI 911 CALL CENTER
LARGE TREE AND WIRES DOWN.
0336 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW IDA 41.88N 83.59W
05/13/2014 MONROE MI 911 CALL CENTER
LARGE TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN
0337 PM TSTM WND GST CLINTON TOWNSHIP 42.59N 82.92W
05/13/2014 M61.00 MPH MACOMB MI PUBLIC
VIA FACEBOOK
0338 PM TSTM WND GST 1 ESE WARREN 42.49N 83.01W
05/13/2014 E60.00 MPH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER
JUST NORTH OF 11 MILE RD ON HOOVER IN WARREN.
0338 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W MACOMB TOWNSHIP 42.67N 83.01W
05/13/2014 MACOMB MI PUBLIC
TWO LARGE TREES DOWN AT 23 MILE AND SHELBY. REPORT VIA
FACEBOOK.
0338 PM TSTM WND DMG MELVIN 43.18N 82.86W
05/13/2014 SANILAC MI 911 CALL CENTER
POWER POLE AND WIRES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0355 PM MARINE TSTM WIND MOUNT CLEMENS 42.60N 82.88W
05/13/2014 M39.00 MPH MACOMB MI ASOS
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBUS 42.89N 82.67W
05/13/2014 ST. CLAIR MI BROADCAST MEDIA
LARGE TREE DOWN ON TRUCK.
0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ENE RICHMOND 42.83N 82.67W
05/13/2014 ST. CLAIR MI 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN/POWER OUT GRATIOT AND ELLSWORTH.
0417 PM MARINE TSTM WIND PORT HURON 42.99N 82.43W
05/13/2014 M40.00 MPH ST. CLAIR MI TRAINED SPOTTER
0421 PM TSTM WND DMG SSE ST. CLAIR 42.82N 82.49W
05/13/2014 ST. CLAIR MI 911 CALL CENTER
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
0440 PM FLOOD 6 NNW GROSSE POINTE 42.47N 82.94W
05/13/2014 MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER OVER ROADS BETWEEN GRATOIT AND KELLY STREETS.
0453 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 E RICHMOND 42.81N 82.68W
05/13/2014 ST. CLAIR MI 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN/POWER OUT. BARTEL RD.
0453 PM TSTM WND DMG SSE ST. CLAIR 42.82N 82.49W
05/13/2014 ST. CLAIR MI 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN/POWER OUT HATHAWAY/OAKLAND RD.
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Rest of the week's Outlook...
Update 5/14/14; First More Rain Then the Cold as Previously Noted
Low pressure system along the cold front that pushed the cold front and severe weather through here Tuesday; has moved northeast well into Canada. However with a strong nearly parallel jet aloft along with upper level energy and copious amount of moisture, look for rain and a few embedded thunderstorms to make an appearance overnight into Thursday. Rainfall amounts of around .50" to 1.50" will be widespread with locally higher amounts.After our mid week rain; the much cooler air mentioned days ago in this current blog will mover into the area Thursday night through the weekend. While temperatures will drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s on the coldest early mornings (most likely Friday and Saturday morning); the highest risk of frost will be in open areas where the ground has dried out some. With the strong warm up recently and heavy rains; those factors will tend to negate frost development due to surface and below ground temperature moderation. In addition as always, cloud cover and wind will also help dictate outcome.
Still one can not rule it (patchy frost) out as the air coming across the region is notably cold for mid May. Perusing records for mid May is a help at determining what have been the worst cold snaps so late in spring. As you can see record cold lows around 30 degrees have been the lowest, while very cool afternoon highs have been in the mid to upper 40s for record low max's. I feel most of these will remain intact.
Detroit Rec Hi's Low Max's Rec Low's
| 16 | 70 | 49 | 60.0 | 92/1962 | 47/1945 | 70/1962 | 32/1984 | 81/1962 | 44/1957 | 1.09/1945 | 16 |
| 17 | 70 | 50 | 60.0 | 93/1962 | 48/1916 | 67/1962 | 31/1973 | 80/1962 | 43/1973 | 1.22/1980 | 17 |
| 18 | 71 | 50 | 60.0 | 93/1962 | 48/1915 | 70/1962 | 32/1973 |
Flint Rec Hi's Low Max's Rec Low's
| 16 | 69 | 45 | 57.0 | 90/1962 | 46/1945 | 65/1962 | 30/1921 | 78/1962 | 41/1956 | 2.16/1974 | 16 |
| 17 | 69 | 46 | 57.0 | 89/1962 | 47/2002 | 62/1999 | 29/1973 | 75/1999 | 41/2002 | 1.85/1923 | 17 |
| 18 | 69 | 46 | 58.0 | 90/1998 | 48/2002 | 64/1962 | 29/1973 |
Saginaw Rec Hi's Low Max's Rec Low's
| 16 | 68 | 47 | 57.0 | 90/1962 | 46/1923 | 67/1962 | 32/1952 | 79/1962 | 42/1983 | 1.40/1923 | 16 |
| 17 | 68 | 47 | 58.0 | 89/1936 | 45/1916 | 63/1977 | 32/1983 | 75/1977 | 41/2002 | 1.98/1986 | 17 |
| 18 | 69 | 47 | 58.0 | 92/1998 | 49/1969 | 64/1971 | 31/1925 |
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Update...5/11/14
Sunday afternoon's Severe Weather Update for Monday
| May 11, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook | |||||||||||||||||
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Mid Week Notes Update:
NAM/Euro agree on bringing second low Pressure storm mid week on tail end of polar front; see if GFS comes arnd to this scenario with time. It would be very WET & psbly stormy again if that happened...depends how far north she pushes back up.
5/10/14__________________________________________________________
Model Guidance for the past few days has been coming together for the definite risk of severe weather early in the week; then a return to below to well below normal temperatures with another shot of polar air later in the week.
A developing low pressure system will surge warm, humid air back into the region on Monday and then; push a cold front through Southeast Lower Michigan later Tuesday. Severe weather will likely form along and behind the warm front as the air becomes very unstable, especially if intensified by surface heating during the day. Another round of severe weather is possible Tuesday along and ahead of the cold front.
Latest trajectories of both the NAM and GFS models reflect strong instability building during the day Monday across Southern Lower Michigan, especially just west of the region. With CAPES projected of 2800j/k + and LI's in excess of -8 the dynamite will be set. Even assuming these parameters are a bit overdone, this situation needs to be watched. Triggers for convection will be the warm and cold fronts with the system both Monday and Tuesday. While bulk shear will not be terribly strong Monday, the projected
instability may dominate decent storm development Monday; while Tuesday the jet core and bulk shear will be on our doorstep to add to the threat but it's too early for certainties.
As of now, SPC has much of Southern Lower Michigan outlooked for a slight chance of severe weather Monday into Tuesday. I wouldn't be surprised if they increased the slight risk over parts of the outlooked area to moderate,especially if the atmosphere continues to be modeled and projected this way. Keep abreast of potential severe weather information into early next week.
Monday AM - Tue AM Outlook
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