7/24/14

A Relatively Cool July Will Support a Below Normal Summer Thus Far & Severe Weather 7/27/14

With two-thirds of July complete and in the midst of another refreshing cool summer-time air mass with another significant one in the wings by early next week, July 2014 will undoubtedly average notably below normal across Southeast Lower Michigan. While June averaged above normal across Southeast Lower Michigan, July's potent cool spells will have erased all the above normals at month's end and the region will sit in below normal territory thus far for the summer.

The temperature pattern thus far for the two months has been above normal then below, and how August plays out will clarify the picture. Therefore; when the timing of the temperatures pattern and upper air was similar to this year, how did August fare? In analogue data when July averaged more than one degree below normal; the August analogues averaged normal to below; just like our summer data did.

Latest CFS Model projections for August is a cool one for most of the country. It must be remembered that this 16 member CFS is highly weighted to the recent, last few weeks trend; also cool.







This member of the CFS projects more of a normal Aug in the Great Lakes with the cooler below normal area west of the lakes. Interesting how the computer models agree strongly with our analogues for August set up in the spring, normal to below tempertures.




Finally; looks like CPC is going middle of the road with the models with the below normal encompassing the western Lakes.





Of course, our summer departure data at Detroit will have to be taken with a grain of salt since its normals have been influenced by the urban heat island. When calculating Flint or Saginaw thus far, a lesser below normal departure is seen. Whats most important is the average temperature and where we place at Detroit, Flint and Saginaw relative to an average or normal summer; and a Southeast Lower Michigan summer temperature as a whole. At the end of July, I'll look at the Summer 2014 in statistics and where we place relative to an average summer thus far.

Severe Weather  on 7/27/14

Widespread severe weather accompanied by damaging winds and hail was observed over Southeast Lower Michigan Sunday afternoon and early evening on the 27th. This was well telegraphed by the models mid to late week (see original write-up 7/24) This appears to be our strongest event for the Severe Weather Season of 2014 thus far....

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
930 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     HAIL             5 NW AUBURN             43.65N 84.15W 
07/27/2014  E2.50 INCH       BAY                MI   PUBLIC          

            RELAYED VIA SHAVE REPORT.

0230 PM     HAIL             3 ENE MIDLAND           43.64N 84.17W 
07/27/2014  M3.00 INCH       MIDLAND            MI   PUBLIC          

            RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT

0230 PM     HAIL             MIDLAND                 43.62N 84.23W 
07/27/2014  M1.75 INCH       MIDLAND            MI   PUBLIC          

            LOTS OF 1.5 INCH HAIL...A FEW TO 1.75 INCHES. RELAYED VIA
            FACEBOOK WITH PICTURES.

0241 PM     HAIL             4 NNW AUBURN            43.65N 84.13W 
07/27/2014  E2.00 INCH       BAY                MI   911 CALL CENTER 

            RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT.

0243 PM     HAIL             1 E WILLARD             43.67N 84.09W 
07/27/2014  E1.75 INCH       BAY                MI   PUBLIC          

            RELAYED BY SHAVE PROJECT

0249 PM     HAIL             3 WNW KAWKAWLIN         43.67N 84.00W 
07/27/2014  E2.00 INCH       BAY                MI   PUBLIC          

            RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT

0250 PM     HAIL             2 W KAWKAWLIN           43.65N 83.99W 
07/27/2014  M2.00 INCH       BAY                MI   PUBLIC          

            RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT

0250 PM     HAIL             4 SSW LINWOOD           43.69N 84.01W 
07/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       BAY                MI   PUBLIC          

            RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT

0256 PM     HAIL             1 ENE KAWKAWLIN         43.66N 83.93W 
07/27/2014  E2.50 INCH       BAY                MI   PUBLIC          

            RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT

0300 PM     HAIL             3 S LINWOOD             43.70N 83.98W 
07/27/2014  E1.50 INCH       BAY                MI   PUBLIC          

            RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT

0300 PM     HAIL             KAWKAWLIN               43.65N 83.95W 
07/27/2014  M1.75 INCH       BAY                MI   PUBLIC          

0300 PM     HAIL             2 NNW KAWKAWLIN         43.68N 83.96W 
07/27/2014  E1.75 INCH       BAY                MI   PUBLIC          

            RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT.

0305 PM     HAIL             1 ESE KAWKAWLIN         43.65N 83.93W 
07/27/2014  E2.00 INCH       BAY                MI   PUBLIC          

            RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT

0310 PM     HAIL             4 N BAY CITY            43.65N 83.87W 
07/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       BAY                MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

0310 PM     HAIL             3 S PINCONNING          43.81N 83.96W 
07/27/2014  M2.00 INCH       BAY                MI   AMATEUR RADIO   

            RELAYED WITH PICTURES

0310 PM     HAIL             4 NNE BAY CITY          43.65N 83.87W 
07/27/2014  M1.50 INCH       BAY                MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            IN BANGOR TWP RIGHT ON SAGINAW BAY

0400 PM     LIGHTNING        1 SSW CASEVILLE         43.93N 83.28W 
07/27/2014                   HURON              MI   911 CALL CENTER 

            BUILDING DAMAGE CAUSED BY LIGHTNING STRIKE. 

0400 PM     LIGHTNING        1 SSW CASEVILLE         43.93N 83.29W 
07/27/2014                   HURON              MI   911 CALL CENTER 

            HOUSE FIRE CAUSED BY LIGHTNING.

0415 PM     HAIL             3 ENE HARTLAND          42.67N 83.69W 
07/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       LIVINGSTON         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

0420 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 8 ESE AU GRES           44.02N 83.54W 
07/27/2014  M59.00 MPH       LHZ421             MI   BUOY            

            MEASURED AT GRAVELLY SHOALS LIGHT

0425 PM     HAIL             6 SW SANFORD            43.61N 84.47W 
07/27/2014  M1.50 INCH       MIDLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            AT M-20 AND 11 MILE

0430 PM     HAIL             3 NNE HIGHLAND          42.68N 83.61W 
07/27/2014  M1.75 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            HARVEY LAKE RD AND MILFORD RD

0431 PM     HAIL             HIGHLAND                42.64N 83.62W 
07/27/2014  M1.75 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N MILFORD             42.67N 83.62W 
07/27/2014                   OAKLAND            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            AT MOBILE HOME PARK AT MILFORD AND MIDDLE ROADS. 80 
            PERCENT OF MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED WITH BROKEN WINDOWS.

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW CHELSEA           42.33N 84.10W 
07/27/2014                   WASHTENAW          MI   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN BLOCKING THE ROAD. SHERIFF ON 
            THE SCENE.

0435 PM     HAIL             3 SSE ROSE CENTER       42.69N 83.58W 
07/27/2014  E1.25 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            AT DUCK LAKE RD AND M-59

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S MOUNT FOREST        43.83N 84.11W 
07/27/2014                   BAY                MI   911 CALL CENTER 

            POWER LINES DOWN.

0438 PM     HAIL             5 NNE MILFORD           42.66N 83.56W 
07/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            MEASURED IN WHITE LAKE TWP

0440 PM     HAIL             5 NE MILFORD            42.63N 83.52W 
07/27/2014  M1.75 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   NWS EMPLOYEE    

            MEASURED IN WHITE LAKE TWP

0440 PM     HAIL             4 SE ROSE CENTER        42.69N 83.57W 
07/27/2014  M1.75 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

0442 PM     HAIL             WHITE LAKE              42.65N 83.50W 
07/27/2014  M1.75 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

0443 PM     HAIL             5 ENE MILFORD           42.61N 83.51W 
07/27/2014  M1.75 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   AMATEUR RADIO   

            MEASURED AT BOGIE LK AND COOLEY LK ROADS

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W ALGONAC             42.63N 82.62W 
07/27/2014                   ST. CLAIR          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN

0449 PM     TSTM WND GST     WATERFORD               42.66N 83.39W 
07/27/2014  M62.00 MPH       OAKLAND            MI   ASOS            

            MEASURED AT PONTIAC OAKLAND COUNTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 
            /KPTK/

0450 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 12 NNW BAY PARK         43.81N 83.72W 
07/27/2014  M41.00 MPH       LHZ422             MI   BUOY            

            MEASURED AT SAGINAW BAY LIGHT

0450 PM     HAIL             WATERFORD               42.66N 83.39W 
07/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            MEASURED AT AIRPORT ROAD AND M-59

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW PONTIAC            42.63N 83.32W 
07/27/2014                   OAKLAND            MI   PUBLIC          

            MULTIPLE LIMBS DOWN AT TELEGRAPH AND VOORHIES. RELAYED 
            VIA TWITTER.

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N SAGINAW             43.45N 83.94W 
07/27/2014                   SAGINAW            MI   PUBLIC          

            TREE UPROOTED

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW HEMLOCK            43.46N 84.29W 
07/27/2014                   SAGINAW            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            10 INCH DIAMETER BRANCH TOOK DOWN POWERLINE ACROSS FROST 
            ROAD

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WSW PONTIAC           42.61N 83.38W 
07/27/2014                   OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            6 INCH LIMB DOWN AT WEST BLOOMFIELD AND CASS LAKE ROAD

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W WARREN              42.49N 83.11W 
07/27/2014                   OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            TREE FELL ONTO HOUSE.

0502 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW PONTIAC            42.60N 83.37W 
07/27/2014                   OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            4 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN AT CASS LAKE AND ORCHARD 
            LAKE ROADS

0505 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHESANING               43.18N 84.12W 
07/27/2014  E60.00 MPH       SAGINAW            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

0505 PM     HAIL             4 SSE PONTIAC           42.60N 83.25W 
07/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            AT SQUARE LAKE AND OPDYKE

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE PONTIAC           42.60N 83.25W 
07/27/2014                   OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON I-75 SOUTH OF SQUARE LAKE ROAD

0507 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE CHESANING         43.25N 84.10W 
07/27/2014                   SAGINAW            MI   911 CALL CENTER 

            BARN ROOF TORN OFF, TREES UPROOTED. FERGUS RD IN ST 
            CHARLES

0507 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE CHESANING         43.25N 84.09W 
07/27/2014                   SAGINAW            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            POWER LINES DOWN FOR ONE HALF MILE AND DAMAGE TO PORCH AT
            BIRCH RUN AND STEWART

0510 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLOOMFIELD HILLS        42.58N 83.25W 
07/27/2014  E70.00 MPH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            AT SQUARE LAKE AND WOODWARD

0510 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE PONTIAC           42.58N 83.25W 
07/27/2014  M53.00 MPH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            NUMEROUS 1 FOOT LIMBS DOWN NEAR SQUARE LAKE AND OPDYKE

0514 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MADISON HEIGHTS         42.50N 83.10W 
07/27/2014                   OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AT 12 MILE AND DEQUINDRE

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW SAGINAW            43.44N 83.98W 
07/27/2014                   SAGINAW            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            15 INCH DIAMETER LIMB DOWN

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE SOUTHFIELD        42.49N 83.18W 
07/27/2014                   OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            ONE LARGE LIMB DOWN AT STANFORD AND CAMBRIDGE IN BERKLEY

0520 PM     HAIL             NORTH BRANCH            43.23N 83.19W 
07/27/2014  M1.25 INCH       LAPEER             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            FELL FOR 7 MINUTES AT HALF DOLLAR SIZE. ALSO 45 MPH GUST.


0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE BIRCH RUN          43.22N 83.75W 
07/27/2014  E60.00 MPH       GENESEE            MI   911 CALL CENTER 

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N WYANDOTTE           42.23N 83.16W 
07/27/2014                   WAYNE              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON POWERLINES

0530 PM     HAIL             1 ENE WARREN            42.50N 83.01W 
07/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            AT MARTIN AND HOOVER

0537 PM     HAIL             SHELBY TOWNSHIP         42.67N 83.03W 
07/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            25 MILE AND JEWELL

0540 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 SE ST. CLAIR SHORES   42.47N 82.87W 
07/27/2014  M46.00 MPH       LCZ460             MI   C-MAN STATION   

0546 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ESE MOUNT CLEMENS     42.58N 82.83W 
07/27/2014  E65.00 MPH       MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED AT METRO VILLA DR AND NORTH 
            POINTE PKWY IN HARRISON TWP

0546 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 ENE MOUNT CLEMENS     42.61N 82.83W 
07/27/2014  M46.00 MPH       MACOMB             MI   AWOS            

            MEASURED AT SELFRIDGE ANGB /KMTC/

0546 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE MOUNT CLEMENS      42.57N 82.85W 
07/27/2014                   MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            LARGE TREE FELL ONTO HOUSE. MULTIPLE LARGE TREE LIMBS 
            ALSO DOWN.

0547 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE MOUNT CLEMENS     42.59N 82.81W 
07/27/2014                   MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            TREE LIMBS GREATER THAN ONE FOOT DIAMETER DOWN NEAR METRO
            BEACH IN HARRISON TWP

0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW OTISVILLE          43.18N 83.54W 
07/27/2014                   GENESEE            MI   911 CALL CENTER 

            TREES DOWN UP TO 3 FEET IN DIAMETER ON M-57 BETWEEN IRISH
            RD AND M-15

0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE TECUMSEH          42.00N 83.91W 
07/27/2014                   LENAWEE            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            TREE DOWN AT M50 AND BILLMYER RD

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       STERLING HEIGHTS        42.58N 83.03W 
07/27/2014  M1.50 INCH       MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            1 HOUR TOTAL AT 18 MILE AND RYAN

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROWN CITY              43.21N 82.99W 
07/27/2014                   SANILAC            MI   911 CALL CENTER 

            LIMBS DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES

0600 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SSE PORT SANILAC      43.42N 82.54W 
07/27/2014  M46.00 MPH       SANILAC            MI   BUOY            

0621 PM     HAIL             MANCHESTER              42.15N 84.04W 
07/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       WASHTENAW          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ENE CARLETON          42.08N 83.28W 
07/27/2014                   MONROE             MI   911 CALL CENTER 

            TREES DOWN NEAR TELEGRAPH AND ARMSTRONG

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W CHELSEA             42.31N 84.09W 
07/27/2014                   WASHTENAW          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            10 INCH DIAMETER LIMB DOWN

0646 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHELSEA                 42.31N 84.02W 
07/27/2014                   WASHTENAW          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE AT JEFFERSON AND 
            EAST

0651 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE ANN ARBOR          42.31N 83.69W 
07/27/2014  E60.00 MPH       WASHTENAW          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            AT GREEN AND PLYMOUTH

0651 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE ANN ARBOR          42.30N 83.70W 
07/27/2014                   WASHTENAW          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            14 INCH TREE LIMB REPORTED DOWN.

0700 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SSE STONY POINT      41.82N 83.19W 
07/27/2014  M39.00 MPH       LEZ162             MI   C-MAN STATION   

0704 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE WHITMORE LAKE     42.38N 83.72W 
07/27/2014                   WASHTENAW          MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            10 TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROAD

0717 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTHVILLE              42.44N 83.49W 
07/27/2014                   WAYNE              MI   911 CALL CENTER 

            A COUPLE OF DOWNED TREES

0753 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND GROSSE ILE              42.13N 83.15W 
07/27/2014  M43.00 MPH       WAYNE              MI   AWOS            


7/27/14- Update
No severe weather erupted on Saturday nor Saturday night as the most unstable air remained south over the Ohio Valley. There still is a risk of severe weather on Sunday and a strong cold front pushes southeast across the region by Sunday afternoon.

Original - 7/24/14

On a completely different weather note; the potential for severe weather this weekend (7/26-27) has increased with the last few model outputs and certainly bears monitoring.

All models (GFS, NAM & EURO) strongly intimate the risk of severe weather across the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. Impressive instability, strong shear and other dynamics seem to be coming together in this region Saturday into Sunday. It looks as though some area(s) will be clobbered by severe thunderstorms and possibly even a few tornadoes. 

Here in Southeast Michigan we will be on the northern side of this system with the greatest risk of severe weather across northern Illinois into northern Indiana and Ohio. However, this system has the potential to drive the severe weather into the southern tier of Lower Michigan. At this early juncture; the highest risk of severe weather will be Saturday into Saturday Night. Sunday too could bring another round of at least strong to severe storms with the final push of the next cool air mass. If this trend continues; updates will be forthcoming!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian