The temperature pattern thus far for the two months has been above normal then below, and how August plays out will clarify the picture. Therefore; when the timing of the temperatures pattern and upper air was similar to this year, how did August fare? In analogue data when July averaged more than one degree below normal; the August analogues averaged normal to below; just like our summer data did.
Latest CFS Model projections for August is a cool one for most of the country. It must be remembered that this 16 member CFS is highly weighted to the recent, last few weeks trend; also cool.
This member of the CFS projects more of a normal Aug in the Great Lakes with the cooler below normal area west of the lakes. Interesting how the computer models agree strongly with our analogues for August set up in the spring, normal to below tempertures.
Finally; looks like CPC is going middle of the road with the models with the below normal encompassing the western Lakes.
Of course, our summer departure data at Detroit will have to be taken with a grain of salt since its normals have been influenced by the urban heat island. When calculating Flint or Saginaw thus far, a lesser below normal departure is seen. Whats most important is the average temperature and where we place at Detroit, Flint and Saginaw relative to an average or normal summer; and a Southeast Lower Michigan summer temperature as a whole. At the end of July, I'll look at the Summer 2014 in statistics and where we place relative to an average summer thus far.
Severe Weather on 7/27/14
Widespread severe weather accompanied by damaging winds and hail was observed over Southeast Lower Michigan Sunday afternoon and early evening on the 27th. This was well telegraphed by the models mid to late week (see original write-up 7/24) This appears to be our strongest event for the Severe Weather Season of 2014 thus far....
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
930 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0221 PM HAIL 5 NW AUBURN 43.65N 84.15W
07/27/2014 E2.50 INCH BAY MI PUBLIC
RELAYED VIA SHAVE REPORT.
0230 PM HAIL 3 ENE MIDLAND 43.64N 84.17W
07/27/2014 M3.00 INCH MIDLAND MI PUBLIC
RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT
0230 PM HAIL MIDLAND 43.62N 84.23W
07/27/2014 M1.75 INCH MIDLAND MI PUBLIC
LOTS OF 1.5 INCH HAIL...A FEW TO 1.75 INCHES. RELAYED VIA
FACEBOOK WITH PICTURES.
0241 PM HAIL 4 NNW AUBURN 43.65N 84.13W
07/27/2014 E2.00 INCH BAY MI 911 CALL CENTER
RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT.
0243 PM HAIL 1 E WILLARD 43.67N 84.09W
07/27/2014 E1.75 INCH BAY MI PUBLIC
RELAYED BY SHAVE PROJECT
0249 PM HAIL 3 WNW KAWKAWLIN 43.67N 84.00W
07/27/2014 E2.00 INCH BAY MI PUBLIC
RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT
0250 PM HAIL 2 W KAWKAWLIN 43.65N 83.99W
07/27/2014 M2.00 INCH BAY MI PUBLIC
RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT
0250 PM HAIL 4 SSW LINWOOD 43.69N 84.01W
07/27/2014 E1.00 INCH BAY MI PUBLIC
RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT
0256 PM HAIL 1 ENE KAWKAWLIN 43.66N 83.93W
07/27/2014 E2.50 INCH BAY MI PUBLIC
RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT
0300 PM HAIL 3 S LINWOOD 43.70N 83.98W
07/27/2014 E1.50 INCH BAY MI PUBLIC
RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT
0300 PM HAIL KAWKAWLIN 43.65N 83.95W
07/27/2014 M1.75 INCH BAY MI PUBLIC
0300 PM HAIL 2 NNW KAWKAWLIN 43.68N 83.96W
07/27/2014 E1.75 INCH BAY MI PUBLIC
RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT.
0305 PM HAIL 1 ESE KAWKAWLIN 43.65N 83.93W
07/27/2014 E2.00 INCH BAY MI PUBLIC
RELAYED VIA SHAVE PROJECT
0310 PM HAIL 4 N BAY CITY 43.65N 83.87W
07/27/2014 M1.00 INCH BAY MI TRAINED SPOTTER
0310 PM HAIL 3 S PINCONNING 43.81N 83.96W
07/27/2014 M2.00 INCH BAY MI AMATEUR RADIO
RELAYED WITH PICTURES
0310 PM HAIL 4 NNE BAY CITY 43.65N 83.87W
07/27/2014 M1.50 INCH BAY MI TRAINED SPOTTER
IN BANGOR TWP RIGHT ON SAGINAW BAY
0400 PM LIGHTNING 1 SSW CASEVILLE 43.93N 83.28W
07/27/2014 HURON MI 911 CALL CENTER
BUILDING DAMAGE CAUSED BY LIGHTNING STRIKE.
0400 PM LIGHTNING 1 SSW CASEVILLE 43.93N 83.29W
07/27/2014 HURON MI 911 CALL CENTER
HOUSE FIRE CAUSED BY LIGHTNING.
0415 PM HAIL 3 ENE HARTLAND 42.67N 83.69W
07/27/2014 M1.00 INCH LIVINGSTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER
0420 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 ESE AU GRES 44.02N 83.54W
07/27/2014 M59.00 MPH LHZ421 MI BUOY
MEASURED AT GRAVELLY SHOALS LIGHT
0425 PM HAIL 6 SW SANFORD 43.61N 84.47W
07/27/2014 M1.50 INCH MIDLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
AT M-20 AND 11 MILE
0430 PM HAIL 3 NNE HIGHLAND 42.68N 83.61W
07/27/2014 M1.75 INCH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
HARVEY LAKE RD AND MILFORD RD
0431 PM HAIL HIGHLAND 42.64N 83.62W
07/27/2014 M1.75 INCH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
0435 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 N MILFORD 42.67N 83.62W
07/27/2014 OAKLAND MI EMERGENCY MNGR
AT MOBILE HOME PARK AT MILFORD AND MIDDLE ROADS. 80
PERCENT OF MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED WITH BROKEN WINDOWS.
0435 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 WNW CHELSEA 42.33N 84.10W
07/27/2014 WASHTENAW MI AMATEUR RADIO
TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN BLOCKING THE ROAD. SHERIFF ON
THE SCENE.
0435 PM HAIL 3 SSE ROSE CENTER 42.69N 83.58W
07/27/2014 E1.25 INCH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
AT DUCK LAKE RD AND M-59
0435 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S MOUNT FOREST 43.83N 84.11W
07/27/2014 BAY MI 911 CALL CENTER
POWER LINES DOWN.
0438 PM HAIL 5 NNE MILFORD 42.66N 83.56W
07/27/2014 M1.00 INCH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
MEASURED IN WHITE LAKE TWP
0440 PM HAIL 5 NE MILFORD 42.63N 83.52W
07/27/2014 M1.75 INCH OAKLAND MI NWS EMPLOYEE
MEASURED IN WHITE LAKE TWP
0440 PM HAIL 4 SE ROSE CENTER 42.69N 83.57W
07/27/2014 M1.75 INCH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
0442 PM HAIL WHITE LAKE 42.65N 83.50W
07/27/2014 M1.75 INCH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
0443 PM HAIL 5 ENE MILFORD 42.61N 83.51W
07/27/2014 M1.75 INCH OAKLAND MI AMATEUR RADIO
MEASURED AT BOGIE LK AND COOLEY LK ROADS
0445 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W ALGONAC 42.63N 82.62W
07/27/2014 ST. CLAIR MI TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE LIMBS DOWN
0449 PM TSTM WND GST WATERFORD 42.66N 83.39W
07/27/2014 M62.00 MPH OAKLAND MI ASOS
MEASURED AT PONTIAC OAKLAND COUNTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
/KPTK/
0450 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 12 NNW BAY PARK 43.81N 83.72W
07/27/2014 M41.00 MPH LHZ422 MI BUOY
MEASURED AT SAGINAW BAY LIGHT
0450 PM HAIL WATERFORD 42.66N 83.39W
07/27/2014 M1.00 INCH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
MEASURED AT AIRPORT ROAD AND M-59
0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW PONTIAC 42.63N 83.32W
07/27/2014 OAKLAND MI PUBLIC
MULTIPLE LIMBS DOWN AT TELEGRAPH AND VOORHIES. RELAYED
VIA TWITTER.
0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N SAGINAW 43.45N 83.94W
07/27/2014 SAGINAW MI PUBLIC
TREE UPROOTED
0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NW HEMLOCK 43.46N 84.29W
07/27/2014 SAGINAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER
10 INCH DIAMETER BRANCH TOOK DOWN POWERLINE ACROSS FROST
ROAD
0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 WSW PONTIAC 42.61N 83.38W
07/27/2014 OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
6 INCH LIMB DOWN AT WEST BLOOMFIELD AND CASS LAKE ROAD
0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W WARREN 42.49N 83.11W
07/27/2014 OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
TREE FELL ONTO HOUSE.
0502 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SW PONTIAC 42.60N 83.37W
07/27/2014 OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
4 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN AT CASS LAKE AND ORCHARD
LAKE ROADS
0505 PM TSTM WND GST CHESANING 43.18N 84.12W
07/27/2014 E60.00 MPH SAGINAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER
0505 PM HAIL 4 SSE PONTIAC 42.60N 83.25W
07/27/2014 M1.00 INCH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
AT SQUARE LAKE AND OPDYKE
0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE PONTIAC 42.60N 83.25W
07/27/2014 OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON I-75 SOUTH OF SQUARE LAKE ROAD
0507 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NNE CHESANING 43.25N 84.10W
07/27/2014 SAGINAW MI 911 CALL CENTER
BARN ROOF TORN OFF, TREES UPROOTED. FERGUS RD IN ST
CHARLES
0507 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NNE CHESANING 43.25N 84.09W
07/27/2014 SAGINAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER
POWER LINES DOWN FOR ONE HALF MILE AND DAMAGE TO PORCH AT
BIRCH RUN AND STEWART
0510 PM TSTM WND GST BLOOMFIELD HILLS 42.58N 83.25W
07/27/2014 E70.00 MPH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
AT SQUARE LAKE AND WOODWARD
0510 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SSE PONTIAC 42.58N 83.25W
07/27/2014 M53.00 MPH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
NUMEROUS 1 FOOT LIMBS DOWN NEAR SQUARE LAKE AND OPDYKE
0514 PM TSTM WND DMG MADISON HEIGHTS 42.50N 83.10W
07/27/2014 OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AT 12 MILE AND DEQUINDRE
0515 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW SAGINAW 43.44N 83.98W
07/27/2014 SAGINAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER
15 INCH DIAMETER LIMB DOWN
0515 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ENE SOUTHFIELD 42.49N 83.18W
07/27/2014 OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER
ONE LARGE LIMB DOWN AT STANFORD AND CAMBRIDGE IN BERKLEY
0520 PM HAIL NORTH BRANCH 43.23N 83.19W
07/27/2014 M1.25 INCH LAPEER MI TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL FOR 7 MINUTES AT HALF DOLLAR SIZE. ALSO 45 MPH GUST.
0530 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SE BIRCH RUN 43.22N 83.75W
07/27/2014 E60.00 MPH GENESEE MI 911 CALL CENTER
0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N WYANDOTTE 42.23N 83.16W
07/27/2014 WAYNE MI TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON POWERLINES
0530 PM HAIL 1 ENE WARREN 42.50N 83.01W
07/27/2014 M1.00 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER
AT MARTIN AND HOOVER
0537 PM HAIL SHELBY TOWNSHIP 42.67N 83.03W
07/27/2014 M1.00 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER
25 MILE AND JEWELL
0540 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 SE ST. CLAIR SHORES 42.47N 82.87W
07/27/2014 M46.00 MPH LCZ460 MI C-MAN STATION
0546 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ESE MOUNT CLEMENS 42.58N 82.83W
07/27/2014 E65.00 MPH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER
TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED AT METRO VILLA DR AND NORTH
POINTE PKWY IN HARRISON TWP
0546 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 ENE MOUNT CLEMENS 42.61N 82.83W
07/27/2014 M46.00 MPH MACOMB MI AWOS
MEASURED AT SELFRIDGE ANGB /KMTC/
0546 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE MOUNT CLEMENS 42.57N 82.85W
07/27/2014 MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE TREE FELL ONTO HOUSE. MULTIPLE LARGE TREE LIMBS
ALSO DOWN.
0547 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ESE MOUNT CLEMENS 42.59N 82.81W
07/27/2014 MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER
TREE LIMBS GREATER THAN ONE FOOT DIAMETER DOWN NEAR METRO
BEACH IN HARRISON TWP
0553 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW OTISVILLE 43.18N 83.54W
07/27/2014 GENESEE MI 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN UP TO 3 FEET IN DIAMETER ON M-57 BETWEEN IRISH
RD AND M-15
0553 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ESE TECUMSEH 42.00N 83.91W
07/27/2014 LENAWEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER
TREE DOWN AT M50 AND BILLMYER RD
0600 PM HEAVY RAIN STERLING HEIGHTS 42.58N 83.03W
07/27/2014 M1.50 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER
1 HOUR TOTAL AT 18 MILE AND RYAN
0600 PM TSTM WND DMG BROWN CITY 43.21N 82.99W
07/27/2014 SANILAC MI 911 CALL CENTER
LIMBS DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES
0600 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SSE PORT SANILAC 43.42N 82.54W
07/27/2014 M46.00 MPH SANILAC MI BUOY
0621 PM HAIL MANCHESTER 42.15N 84.04W
07/27/2014 E1.00 INCH WASHTENAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER
0625 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 ENE CARLETON 42.08N 83.28W
07/27/2014 MONROE MI 911 CALL CENTER
TREES DOWN NEAR TELEGRAPH AND ARMSTRONG
0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W CHELSEA 42.31N 84.09W
07/27/2014 WASHTENAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER
10 INCH DIAMETER LIMB DOWN
0646 PM TSTM WND DMG CHELSEA 42.31N 84.02W
07/27/2014 WASHTENAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER
3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE AT JEFFERSON AND
EAST
0651 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE ANN ARBOR 42.31N 83.69W
07/27/2014 E60.00 MPH WASHTENAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER
AT GREEN AND PLYMOUTH
0651 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE ANN ARBOR 42.30N 83.70W
07/27/2014 WASHTENAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER
14 INCH TREE LIMB REPORTED DOWN.
0700 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SSE STONY POINT 41.82N 83.19W
07/27/2014 M39.00 MPH LEZ162 MI C-MAN STATION
0704 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE WHITMORE LAKE 42.38N 83.72W
07/27/2014 WASHTENAW MI LAW ENFORCEMENT
10 TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROAD
0717 PM TSTM WND DMG NORTHVILLE 42.44N 83.49W
07/27/2014 WAYNE MI 911 CALL CENTER
A COUPLE OF DOWNED TREES
0753 PM MARINE TSTM WIND GROSSE ILE 42.13N 83.15W
07/27/2014 M43.00 MPH WAYNE MI AWOS
7/27/14- Update
No severe weather erupted on Saturday nor Saturday night as the most unstable air remained south over the Ohio Valley. There still is a risk of severe weather on Sunday and a strong cold front pushes southeast across the region by Sunday afternoon.
Original - 7/24/14
On a completely different weather note; the potential for severe weather this weekend (7/26-27) has increased with the last few model outputs and certainly bears monitoring.
All models (GFS, NAM & EURO) strongly intimate the risk of severe weather across the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. Impressive instability, strong shear and other dynamics seem to be coming together in this region Saturday into Sunday. It looks as though some area(s) will be clobbered by severe thunderstorms and possibly even a few tornadoes.
Here in Southeast Michigan we will be on the northern side of this system with the greatest risk of severe weather across northern Illinois into northern Indiana and Ohio. However, this system has the potential to drive the severe weather into the southern tier of Lower Michigan. At this early juncture; the highest risk of severe weather will be Saturday into Saturday Night. Sunday too could bring another round of at least strong to severe storms with the final push of the next cool air mass. If this trend continues; updates will be forthcoming!
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
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