After a long, cold and snowy winter the last thing people wanted to hear for the spring outlook was cool and wet. That was exactly the dominant trend portrayed by my spring analogues. It was one of cool conditions relative to normal along with a preference toward normal to above normal rainfalls (depending on location). The best chance for unseasonably cool weather was seen early and again late in the season. Refer to the temperature and precipitation forecasts below from the Outlook.
Spring Outlook 2011:
Temperatures:
The analogues this go-around are strongly suggesting a cooler than normal spring (see the details in Analogues section). The best chance of below normal temperatures generally speaking, are in March and May. Spring has a good chance of being cooler than normal early and again late in the season is the best way to look at it. However, I feel the magnitude of the cold in the analogues is too strong and warm spells will offset the cooler weather that is anticipated.
Why I looked for a dominantly cool spring (cool side of average), I still felt the overall Southeast Lower Michigan temperature departures would not be a cool as many of the analogues. Reasons being were that the occasional warm spells expected would offset the dominant cool weather somewhat and thus, the mean spring temperature across Southeast Michigan would average as low as 1 1/2 degrees below the spring average. So far /thru mid May/ across Southeast Lower Michigan, temperatures have actually just averaged only about a degree below (helped in part by just a few strong warm spells seen this spring). The second half of May will help determine where indeed the spring ends up.
Precipitation:
It's also been a wet spring with precipitation l around the metro Detroit area closing in on eleven inches as of mid May, nearly four inches about average. Flint has seen about an inch better (or worse, depending you perspective) with around a foot of precipitation measured and five plus inches above average. Both Detroit and Flint rainfall totals are already in the top 20 wettest springs categories. This "wet" area across Southeast Michigan was also projected in my Outlook:
"the best chance of above normal precipitation is where the trend has been since last summer, from the I-69 corridor south to the Ohio border. "
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Several people have suggested I write a blog after leaving the National Weather Service and continue my personal perspective on Southeast Michigan's weather along with thoughts and predictions on the upcoming seasons. If there indeed proves to be enough interest, I shall expand on this and therefore the site is under development.
Up next...
Springs actual stats against interpretation.
Later...
Thoughts/Outlook on Summer
