June's actual weather followed very well the main trend that was forecast by my research and the analogues which also were supported by general computer forecast trends. From the Outlook...
"Let's start with June; a cool or below normal June? That's what all my data is pretty well showing; from analogues, to current and projected upper air patterns, CFS Climate model which looks out over most of June and CFSv2 model, for all of June. Can't argue much with that; though anything can happen we could be all wrong ;-) Let's hope we can slide by with a "closer to normal" June. Also, many times changes occur mid or late month and this June could very well be one of those and warm up with time".
Result...
That's exactly what happened as a cool June for over half of the month, moderated then a warmed to an above normal temperature trend later in the month. This ate away at the cool, below normal temperatures to just about a degree below at Detroit, a few tenths at Flint and degree and a half at Saginaw. This is reflected nicely in the next two temperature maps with the coolest of weather not surprisingly over Michigan's Thumb Region; downwind of a cooler than normal Lake Huron.
As they say; a picture(s) is worth a thousand words. June's Temperature & Rainfall Maps.
On average; Southeast Lower Michigan averaged a degree or two below normal in June.
While cooler than normal weather prevailed, so did wetter than normal with most stations recording above to well above normal rain amounts. Ironically; the official climate station for Detroit averaged about 2/3rds of an inch below normal. The general trend reflects well the lesser amounts of rain anomaly over the extreme Southeast edge of Lower Michigan. The heavy amounts of stratiform and convective rains in the central and southern Lakes region added to the already near record high water levels from spring snow-melt and rains in that region (see posted videos and pictures in Facebook SE_ WeatherHistorian).
Rest of the Summer from the "Summer Outlook">>>
Things started to heat-up in July as well they should with six Julys above normal, averaging better than the degree needed for an above normal month. The normal Julys placed a close second with five in number with only one cool July - a far cry from June's stats. Overall, the July temperature averaged +0.6 above normal but again not enough to declare the month - by the one degree average - a categorized above normal month. Still, there were quite a few notably warm Julys with the above normal six averaging 75.8 or better than two /+2.2/ above normal.
By August; a bit closer to a normal temperatures were found but with the above normal Augusts just winning out at five; there were four normal Augusts and three cool Augusts. Average temperatures dropped slightly to 72.3 for all 12 August months. However; again like the Julys, the warmer, above normal Augusts average at 74.7; nicely above /+2.7/ over the 72.0 norm.
Latest Observations at the Opening of July
Indications are the upper low trough that was dominant in the spring into early summer over the eastern half of North America has retreated somewhat north allowing more typical heat and humidity into the region under the summertime ridge. While the the current pattern is typical; the strength and persistence of the upper trough over eastern North America leaves me to believe reprieves from warmer or hotter than normal weather will be refreshingly; intermittent. Thus; the remainder of the summer of near normal temperatures looks status quo with above normal and below normal balancing out. I see no reason to adjust the previous Outlook; I still look for temperatures to average -1 1/2 to +1 1/2 of the Southeast Lower Michigan norm.
Rainfall has been above to well above normal over nearly all of the region as strongly projected by the analogues. With the upper ridge finally nosing and breaking into the region late June; rainfall patterns will follow more typical summer-time patterns of heavy to light convection rains. I wouldn't be surprised to see even more typical dry spells seen during the summer. Still; general above normal rains should be the rule over the majority of the region relating to entire summer totals.
Enjoy the rest of the summer!
Making weather fun while we all
learn,
Bill Deedler
- SEMI_WeatherHistorian
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