Update...
Here is the storm write-up and snowfalls and depths around SE Mich through Saturday 2/10; 7AM from the NWS and observers.
And below, the RTP from this morning with addition snowfalls and depths....
RTPDTX
MORNING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2018
Values represent yesterday`s highs/lows over the last 12 hours
and precipitation over the last 24 hours ending at 7 AM EST.
.BR DTX 0210 ES DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ
:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:....................................................................
: STATION MAX / MIN / 7 AM / 24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW
: NAME TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP / PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH
:....................................................................
WHKM4: NWS White Lake : 20 / 15 / 16 / 0.37 / 5.1 / 12
ADG : Adrian Airport : 28 / 20 / 20 / 0.38
123M4: Ann Arbor : 25 / 19 / 20 / 0.63 / 6.3 / 13
BAX :*Bad Axe Airport : 20 / 16 / 19 /
CFS :*Caro Airport-Tuscola: 21 / 18 / 18 /
DET : Detroit City Airport: 24 / 21 / 21 / 0.25
DTW : Detroit Metro Airprt: 26 / 21 / 22 / 0.61 / 7.5 / 14
FNT : Flint Bishop Airport: 21 / 14 / 18 / 0.32 / 6.5 / 13
ONZ :*Grosse Ile Airport : 28 / 22 / 22 /
OZW :*Howell Airport : 23 / 18 / 18 /
DUH :*Lambertville Airport: 30 / 22 / 22 /
D95 :*Lapeer Dupont Airprt: 21 / 19 / 19 /
IKW :*Midland Airport : 21 / 16 / 18 /
TTF :*Monroe Airport : 29 / 22 / 22 /
RNP :*Owosso Airport : 21 / 18 / 19 /
PTK : Pontiac Airport : 22 / 18 / 20 /
P58 : Port Hope : 23 / 19 / 20 / 0.07
PHN :*Port Huron Airport : 23 / 19 / 21 /
MBS : Saginaw - Tri-Cities: 20 / 17 / 17 / 0.08 / 2.3 / 9
HYX :*Saginaw-Harry Browne: 21 / 18 / 18 /
VLL :*Oakland/Troy Airport: 24 / 21 / 22 /
YIP : Ypsilanti Willow Run: 29 / 22 / 23 /
.END
*The temperature data for these sites above represent the highest and
lowest temperatures that were reported on the METAR observations
that transmit three times an hour and may not represent the actual
high or low for that site. These sites do not measure precipitation.
.....................................................................
The following Cooperative Observer sites report from midnight to
midnight EST.
.BR DTX 0210 ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ
:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:....................................................................
: STATION MAX / MIN / MIDNITE/24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW
: NAME TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP /PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH
:....................................................................
MILM4: Milford- GM PRV GNDS: 22 / 13 / 17 / 0.50 / 5.0 / 9
MDLM4: Midland : 20 / 11 / 17 / 0.16 / 3.5 / 7
MTCM4: Mt Clemens Selfridge: 24 / 14 / 21 / 0.47 / 7.5 / 12
SGNM4: Saginaw 5W : M / M / M / 0.29 / 3.6 / 8
.....................................................................
Cooperative observation values are for approximately 24 hours from
the previous OB time to the current Ob time. Previous observation
times may not always be exactly the same. The 24 hour low may be
from the previous morning. Use the temperature at observation time
to help determine if the 24 hour low occurred this morning or the
previous morning.
.BR DTX 0210 ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ
:..................................................................
: STATION OB /MAX / MIN /OB /24-HR /SNOW/SNOW
: NAME TIME /TEMP/ TEMP /TEMP/PRECIP/FALL/DEPTH
:..................................................................
: ***BAY COUNTY***
***MIDLAND COUNTY***
OILM4: Oil City :0630/ 23 / 14 / 16 / 0.09/ 2.3/ 6
: ***HURON COUNTY***
BDAM4: Bad Axe :0706/ 20 / 14 / 18 / 0.12/ 1.4/ 8
FLNM4: Filion 5NNW :0630/ 20 / 13 / 17 / 0.07/ 2.1/ 8
: ***SAGINAW COUNTY***
CHSM4: Chesaning :0730/ / / / 0.11/ M/ 8
FKMM4: Frankenmuth 1SE :1000/ 21 / 15 / 17 / 0.10/ 1.7/ 8
MBSM4: Saginaw 8NW :0730/ / / / 0.11/ 2.3/ 9
SAGM4: Saginaw :0800/ 21 / 16 / 16 / 0.12/ 2.2/ 7
: ***TUSCOLA COUNTY***
CARM4: Caro :0915/ 20 / M / 18 / 0.10/ 2.0/ 7
CSSM4: Cass City :0630/ 20 / 13 / 17 / 0.13/ 2.5/ M
VSSM4: Vassar :0700/ 22 / 14 / 17 / 0.08/ 2.0/ 8
: ***SANILAC COUNTY***
LEXM4: Lexington :0800/ 21 / 12 / 20 / 0.28/ 3.0/ 8
: ***SHIAWASSEE COUNTY***
CORM4: Corunna 2NE :0600/ 21 / 15 / 17 / 0.32/ 5.3/ 9
DRNM4: Durand :0800/ 22 / 16 / 17 / 0.24/ 5.7/ 10
OWSM4: Owosso :0700/ 22 / 16 / 18 / 0.24/ 3.5/ 9
: ***GENESEE COUNTY***
LIDM4: Linden :0800/ 22 / 15 / 17 / 0.30/ 2.0/ 6
GODM4: Goodrich :0730/ 23 / 15 / 18 / 0.25/ 4.9/ 10
: ***LAPEER COUNTY***
LPEM4: Lapeer 2W :1030/ 23 / 17 / 22 / 0.48/ 5.2/ 15
: ***ST. CLAIR COUNTY***
YALM4: Yale :0650/ 21 / 12 / 17 / 0.21/ 4.4/ 11
: ***LIVINGSTON COUNTY***
: ***OAKLAND COUNTY***
FARM4: Farmington :0730/ 22 / 15 / 19 / 0.40/ 5.2/ 9
: ***MACOMB COUNTY***
RICM4: Richmond 4NNW :0800/ 22 / 16 / 19 / 0.34/ 5.7/ 13
: ***WASHTENAW COUNTY***
AASM4: Ann-Arbor SE :0730/ 26 / 16 / 20 / 0.53/ 5.8/ 12
CHLM4: Chelsea :0930/ 25 / 18 / 19 / 0.38/ 4.0/ 9
MCHM4: Manchester :0945/ 26 / M / 20 / 0.62/ 6.5/ 11
SLNM4: Saline 4SW :0800/ 27 / 17 / 21 / 0.55/ 7.0/ 13
SALM4: Saline :0715/ 28 / 15 / 21 / 0.60/10.0/ 15
: ***WAYNE COUNTY***
DBNM4: Dearborn #2 :0500/ 26 / 16 / 22 / 0.58/ 7.8/ 10
GPFM4: Grosse Pte Farms :0800/ 23 / 15 / 20 / 0.60/ 6.0/ 14
WYTM4: Wyandotte :0800/ / / / 0.58/ 7.1/ 14
: ***LENAWEE COUNTY***
MRIM4: Morenci :0730/ 31 / 15 / 18 / 0.29/ 3.3/ 8
TECM4: Tecumseh :0800/ 28 / 14 / 22 / 0.55/ 7.8/ 14
TIPM4: Tipton 2WNW :1045/ 29 / 15 / 19 / 0.55/ M/ 12
: ***MONROE COUNTY***
DNDM4: Dundee :0635/ 27 / 17 / 20 / 0.40/ 5.0/ 10
.END
*All data above is preliminary and has not undergone final quality
control by the National Climatic Data Center /NCDC/. Therefore...this
data is subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be
accessed at www.ncdc.noaa.gov.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thursday afternoon - Feb 8th 2017
A classic "old-fashion" strong overrunning weather event which is more robust than usual will lie over the Southern Great Lakes into the weekend. Much of the snow is expected to fall overnight into Friday. In more technical terms the FGEN, moisture (and associated convergence) and baroclinic zone are all is very notable with the system. The forcing and strong vertical velocities through the 700 MB along with moisture and associated temperatures aloft all create the dendrite growth for snow.
Since this is a strong overrunning /FGEN/ event it has its own set of problems forecasting. An impressive upper jet 120kts - 140kts creates a right entrance region over the west-east front which will lie over extreme northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. This will aid in creating bands of moderate to heavy snow over areas just north of the front. Where the snow is to fall is coming together with the models placing best snows over the southern half of Southeast Lower Michigan: basically from I-69 south to the Ohio Border. Within that area; the band of heaviest snow is shown below, depending on model. To
me after looking at the models and previous events; this seems the most
realistic projection path of the snow event through Saturday Forenoon.
The placement and snow amounts reflects the atmospheric potential at
this time. Amounts are likely to be 1-2" below/above to totals depicted
at the specific time.
These
maps are from the NAM and reflect the more liberal Kuchera amounts
which takes into account the colder air mass. The latest 18z/1PM, Thu/
NAM projects approximate amounts into Fri afternoon. Since it's
been my experience, the Kuchera snow method tends to be on the higher
side (but not always with colder air in place); I added the 1"-2"
below/above range to the map snow depictions.
Looking at the earlier 12Z NAM run through Sat Forenoon Projects the heavier snow-band amounts across the southern half Southeast Lower Michigan. Again; look for amounts to range 1-2"
from totals depicted at the specific time. The heaviest core is across
the Ann Arbor- Detroit Metro area south to the Ohio border. This area
must be watched for changes in location or/and amounts but heaviest
snows could theoretically build to around a foot or more by Sunday as
more snow sets up in this corridor at times through the weekend.
Making weather fun while we all learn,Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
