Strange Winter Thus Far Seems All To Familiar

If this late autumn into winter period seems vaguely (or blatantly) familiar - you are right on. It's because this year's late autumn into early winter unfolded very similar to last years with all the snow in November and just a pittance in December.  And; not only snowfall but temperature patterns jive fairly well between the two years. Thus far; the temperature average for December is hugging 35.0 in Detroit as of New Years Eve and not too far off from the 34.5 above average temperature felt last December. In addition; last November /2018/ was a cold one with a temperature average of  37.1 /-4.4/. And not to be outdone; this past November /2019/ the cold was even worse with an average of just  35.8 /-5.7 /or the 13th coldest November. This past November was not only colder than normal; it was snowier than last, placing in the record books as the 4th snowiest on record at 9.5" (the snowiest November remains 11.8"/1966).

And on the flip-side; the just 1.4" that has fallen this December (as of the 30th) ties with 1982 as the 9th snowless December (a strong El Nino winter). Last November of 2018 also made the record books for the one of the snowiest Novembers with 6.7" the 18th snowiest - as did December 2018 for one of the snowless with just a half an inch /0.5"/ or the 4th snowless. This weird pattern carried out into basically; the first two-thirds of January 2019 before "real winter" set in - wonder if that will happen too?

As projected on and off during nearly all of this past December in weather model-land; the lack of storms continued and when they did show up, it was warm enough for rain! And after a wet, mild, soggy and foggy last weekend of 2019, more typical, cold weather with snow showers is back for New Years Eve.

So then; since December was distinctly projected to be either mild with little snow or colder with normal snow in the analogues and Outlook below, which pattern materialized? The milder with little snow trend came to fruition and was set.
  
 Decembers -There is also a strong conflict in December temperature results with 7 above normal and 7 below normal and only 1 normal. Not surprising; the sum and average of all; leads to a normal or average  temperature for December. Therefore; the analogues concluded anything goes for  December, temperature-wise and... 
 -Snowfalls too, were quite variable and averaged on normal but with quite a few below normal and almost as many above. Again no preference.


In January; the following was deducted from analogue research in the Outlook.

Januarys
-While temperature patterns showed colder weather dominated with 8 out of 15 colder than average; still a notable 5 Januarys were warmer and just a few normal. I suspect several of the warmer Januarys contained thaws. Therefore; it was concluded a notable thaw or two seem more plausible and likely - like many winters .
-Snowfalls in January were quite variable  -like the winters on the whole- but the sample averaged below normal by a couple of inches, giving a bit more credence to a lighter January and thaw.

Latest longer range models intimate a more active month in regards to cold fronts and storms in January; but like December, the upper air and surface pattern projected continues to be erratic even more than is typical for models. A number of storms or systems vary between mainly rain and snow but with a downtrend in temperatures (something; of course which would be expected).

Even though, the analogues, long term models and obviously "climo" suggest colder weather in January resulting in the storm track further south/east in time; it is stubborn to remain so with each advection of cold, polar air. And thus; the majority of our precipitation events are forecast to remain rain or rain/snow as the center of main storms ride west/north of Southeast Michigan. Interestingly; if the winter started out mild in December it continued most analogue years into January. Only the very early first two years (1885-86 &    1891-92) did the patter flip to cold.

                                                                Analogue trend is your friend if you like it mild, most years.

Snowfalls Dec/Jan in analogue years above.

Hopefully, January will be a more active month for storm lovers - but in which way is the question?

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian