10/31/16

Celebrating 20 years as Southeast Lower Michigan's Weather Historian - 42 years in the Making

It's been 20 years since I became known as the Southeast Lower Michigan Weather Historian. It began by my researching and writing about Southeast Lower Michigan's notable weather and climate events of the past, present and future. Also at the forefront; I developed my Seasonal Outlooks for Southeast Lower Michigan. While National Season Outlooks were available from CPC; I pursued the down-scale, local effects version over Southeast Lower Michigan by researching the macro-scale AND micro-scale.. Few, if any of NWS WFO offices at the time, issued a down-scaled local effect forecast outlook. After many promising results and positive responses: Season Outlooks for Southeast Lower Michigan were born and continued through my employment and into my retirement with the very satisfying challenge.

Back in 1996; I was encouraged and supported by my immediate supervisors at the time, to go with my strong interest, education and wide experience in the NWS to pursue my "natural place" with the NWS in Southeast Lower Michigan. Growing up and through the NWS, I worked numerous positions at one time or another dealing with weather, climate and forecasting. I enjoyed a broad experience which only increased my knowledge and excitement for the love of my career. Whether it be: Surface Observations, Pilot Briefing, Radar Meteorology and Warnings, Forecasting - short and long term products, Great Lake and Nearshore forecasts all while developing media relations for the NWS and myself going back into the mid 1970s. Also in the mid 70s, while working full time, I attended Eastern Michigan University full time and later, went on to University of Michigan to complete needed courses. While employed, I took countless in-house NWS courses applicable to meteorology and climate along with NWS courses at the NWSTC in Kansas City. Meteorology continues to be an ever-changing and educational endeavor for me and I try to keep abreast of the latest research, theories and ideas.

Some of my earliest weather media briefings for the local weather talent included some well known celebrities of the past and present; Marshal Wells /WJR/, Sonny Eliot, Jerry Hodak, Marilyn Turner, Rob Cress, Don Paul, Chuck Gaidica, Paul Gross and Chris Edwards to name just a handful. As I further branched out in my career, I assumed numerous focal point positions at different offices; Climate, Severe Weather and Spotter Network, Forecaster, NOAA Weather Radio, Data Acquisition all while continuing to serve as a media liaison.

Another big plus for which I'm utterly grateful, is that that my long career spanned over 37 years in the same region - Southeast Lower Michigan - a rare feat in the NWS. Most employees in the NWS to this day,  transfer cross-country for advancement. My NWS career was entirely in Southeast Lower Michigan, starting at the NWS WSFO Detroit then on to the Ann Arbor office, back to the newly created WSO Detroit and lastly in the mid 90s, the WFO at White Lake. This long term employment locally gave me a real opportunity to learn and subsequently get a feel for the weather. The seeds were actually planted way back in the stone-age during my childhood (I was around 7 or so) , growing up in northwest Detroit from the mid 1950s and and on. Ironically of sorts, I wrote Jerry Hodak a letter while in 7th grade /1967/ while he was at CBS Channel-2 and asked him what studies I needed for meteorology - his reply, "at your young age math and science". Later of course, after employed with the NWS, we occasionally chatted about the latest weather and did interviews together.

My official career began in 1974 with the NWS /42 years ago/ however, I did work the summer before /1973/ as an office helper with the MIC at the WSFO DTW and all the HMTS/METS on duty at the DTW office. I was indeed, the veritable kid in the candy store! The MIC at that time of whom I'm eternally grateful for recognizing my passion for meteorology was C R Snider. As far as I know, he is still alive and is well into his 90s (he attended my retirement 5 1/2 years along with some of the earliest of days employees from WSFO Detroit). I worked with hundreds of talented, very smart  individuals who shared my passion for meteorology and climate from my earliest days to my retirement. Some of them remain friends to this day via Facebook or otherwise. One thing I quickly learned was you can learn something from just about everyone you work with - from the highest up position on down. Some of my most rewarding learning and working experiences were with fellow personnel that could be of  "quite the character" - some I'm sure, would say the same of me!
 
Probably the single most valuable thing I learned through my experience with meteorology and forecasting is plain and simple; sometimes you'll be right, sometimes wrong and the job has no room for false egos. If you develop a bit of an ego (and you will), Mother Nature will soon come along enough and shut it down - but then again, that's the process of learning. Anyone that brags "they are always right" in this business, aren't in the right business as they don't or won't learn. Many times; I've discussed what went right and what went wrong with Outlooks and other forecasting products and more importantly, try to look for reasons WHY. While you certainly can develop a "feel" for the weather in your area, look out 'cause those feelings will be hurt.

Finally: I'm writing this blog to give my readers a much broader idea of my entire background on my 20th anniversary - 42 years in the making.


Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian


Next up, by mid November - The Winter Outlook 2016-17






10/18/16

Warm October? You Ain't Seen Nuthin' Yet!

This October of  2016 has been one of the nicer ones thus far but then again; that is not unusual for October in these parts. In addition, the chances of a nicer fall (and projected in the brief fall outlook), is tipped in its favor during La Nina.

Let's look at October's data thus far: 

STATION:   DETROIT MI PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (F-6)
 MONTH:     OCTOBER
YEAR:      2016
LATITUDE:   42 13 N
LONGITUDE:  83 20 W
 
TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
======================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SN DP SPD SPD DIR MIN PSB S-S WX SPD DR
======================================================================
1   69  56  63   5   2   0 0.29  0.0    0  5.8 14 180   M    M  10 138    17 170
2   69  52  61   3   4   0 0.02  0.0    0  4.5 12 290   M    M   6 18     15 270
3   66  53  60   3   5   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.3  8 230   M    M   6 128    11 260
4   74  52  63   6   2   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.1 14 140   M    M   4 128    20 170
5   76  61  69  13   0   4    T  0.0    0  8.4 16 130   M    M   7        22 130
6   79  61  70  14   0   5 0.00  0.0    0  5.2 14 170   M    M   5 18     18 130
7   77  57  67  11   0   2    T  0.0    0  7.4 20 300   M    M   4 18     25 300
8   61  43  52  -3  13   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.0 20 290   M    M   2        26 270
9   62  40  51  -4  14   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.2 15  10   M    M   3        19  10
10 60  39  50  -4  15   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.2 12 140   M    M   2 18     16 170
11 67  48  58   4   7   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.2 13 170   M    M   8 18     16 130
12 78  51  65  11   0   0 0.18  0.0    0 11.4 25 210   M    M   7 18     33 210
13 58  43  51  -2  14   0    T  0.0    0  7.5 20 320   M    M   5        28 320
14 59  39  49  -4  16   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.8 13 130   M    M   2 18     16 160
15 73  42  58   5   7   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.9 20 210   M    M   6 18     24 210
16 69  63  66  14   0   1 0.12  0.0    0 11.2 21 230   M    M   9 18     27 220
17 81  63  72  20   0   7 0.00  0.0    0 13.7 28 210   M    M   7 1      35 220
======================================================================
SM 1178  863        99  19  0.61     0.0 119.8          M       93
======================================================================
AV 69.3 50.8                               7.0 FASTST   M    M   5    MAX(MPH)
MISC ---->  # 28 210               # 35  220
======================================================= 
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2
                                          STATION:  DETROIT MI
                                          MONTH:    OCTOBER
                                          YEAR:     2016
                                          LATITUDE:   42 13 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  83 20 W 
[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]        
AVERAGE MONTHLY: 60.0     TOTAL FOR MONTH:   0.61   
DPTR FM NORMAL:   5.1         DPTR FM NORMAL:   -0.79   
HIGHEST:    81 ON 17                 GRTST 24HR  0.52 ON 30- 1      
LOWEST:     39 ON 14,10                            

With an average temperature right at 60 (above) for better than half of the month, Detroit is averaging a solid five /5.1/ degrees above normal. This is of course, is taking into account the first half of the month's normals - which by the averages, are normally the warmer half. Taking a look at October's normals below, you can see by the 18th, we normally have a HIGH around 60 - not the average /52/. Also, one can see that the records this time of year are in the lower to mid 80s, which we have been flirting with the past day or two (17,18th) but they remain intact.

October - Detroit Records 1874 - Present


October Normals
(1980-2010)
Maximum Minimum Average Daily
Temperature
Precipitation
Date Max Min Avg Record
High
Lowest
Max
Highest
Min
Record
Low
Highest Lowest Greatest Date
1 68 48 58.0 88/1897 46/1920 66/2002 31/1947 76/2002 39/1899 1.55/1945 1
2 67 48 58.0 86/1971 46/1974 66/1927 29/1974 75/1927 38/1974 2.00/1925 2
3 67 48 57.0 89/1953 46/1888 68/2005 24/1974 77/1898 38/1974 3.29/1954 3
4 66 47 57.0 89/1951 45/1980 68/1884 32/1989 77/1951 39/1935 1.06/2000 4
5 66 47 56.0 88/1951 46/1892 67/1941 31/1965 77/1922 41/1935 2.10/1919 5
6 65 46 56.0 91/1963 45/1889 68/1900 30/1935 77/2007 40/1935 2.20/1959 6
7 65 46 56.0 92/1963 44/1896 68/2007 29/1935 79/2007 40/1889 1.50/1951 7
8 65 46 55.0 90/2007 43/1915 68/2007 25/1889 79/2007 39/1895 1.02/1967 8
9 64 45 55.0 86/1949 44/1915 66/1879 28/1989 75/1949 39/1895 1.43/1950 9
10 64 45 54.0 84/1949 42/1906 67/1879 29/1972 75/1949 36/1906 1.03/1932 10
11 63 45 54.0 86/1928 42/1906 65/1879 25/1906 73/1928 34/1906 3.27/1949 11
12 63 44 54.0 84/1995 41/1909 65/1879 26/1875 74/1879 35/1875 1.25/1901 12
13 63 44 53.0 83/1975 40/1909 62/1879 26/1977 70/1930 36/1909 1.57/1983 13
14 62 44 53.0 83/1989 42/1937 59/2014 27/1937 71/1975 35/1937 1.78/2003 14
15 62 43 53.0 86/1897 39/1876 66/1897 24/1876 76/1897 32/1876 1.03/1967 15
16 62 43 52.0 85/1938 37/1875 64/1928 26/1977 71/1958 34/1875 1.92/2001 16
17 61 43 52.0 85/1938 41/1952 67/1879 23/1977 72/1968 37/1952 1.70/1967 17
18 61 43 52.0 84/1963 37/1880 63/1947 24/1976 71/1963 34/1972 1.54/1937 18
19 60 42 51.0 85/1953 35/1930 61/1963 22/1972 71/1953 32/1930 2.02/1985 19
20 60 42 51.0 80/1920 36/1895 62/1920 19/1972 71/1920 32/1974 1.09/1918 20
21 60 42 51.0 81/2007 39/1925 64/1979 17/1974 71/1979 33/1895 0.96/1965 21
22 59 41 50.0 81/1920 40/1997 62/1951 25/1967 71/1979 34/1997 1.98/1929 22
23 59 41 50.0 83/1963 40/1937 59/2012 22/1969 71/1963 33/1969 2.08/1957 23
24 59 41 50.0 81/1963 40/1880 61/1991 22/1981 69/2012 32/1981 1.07/2000 24
25 58 41 49.0 82/1963 38/1887 63/1991 24/1981 72/1963 32/1887 1.09/1991 25
26 58 40 49.0 83/1963 40/1980 61/1991 22/1887 71/1963 32/1887 1.29/1920 26
27 57 40 49.0 78/1927 38/1997 58/1947 22/1976 67/1984 31/1976 1.48/1981 27
28 57 40 48.0 78/1927 35/1925 55/1964 21/1976 64/1927 31/1925 1.13/2015 28
29 57 40 48.0 77/1999 32/1925 64/1946 22/1980 70/1946 28/1925 0.74/1875 29
30 56 39 48.0 76/1999 35/1925 63/1946 20/1980 69/1946 31/1925 1.29/1900 30
31 56 39 48.0 79/1950 34/1917 60/1974 21/1988 70/1950 29/1917 1.59/2013 31

Normal High: 61.6

Normal HDD: Month: 397

Normal Monthly Precip: 2.52
Normal Low : 43.3 Normal HDD Season: 501 Normal Yearly Precip: 28.22
Normal Mean: 52.4 Normal CDD: Month: 8 Ave Snow this Month : 0.1
Normal CDD Season: 803 Ave Snow for the Season: 0.1

Precip: Greatest Monthly Total: 7.80/1954

Snow: Greatest Monthly Total: 2.9/1980
Precip: Least Monthly Total: 0.30/1892 Snow: Least Monthly Total: 0.0/na


Looking at our top 20 warmest (and coldest Octobers) listing for Detroit below, you can see there have been several nice Octobers when looking at its attained temperature averages for the month. Many in the top five were able to hold near the average we have at this time but for the entire month. Looking back at October's spring counter-part April, April is generally a "lousier" month over October (average of 49.2 vs October's 52.4 for a start) across the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan. Therefore, if you are planning a spring or fall vacation across the region, October wins hands-down for this and many more reasons. Again, it's generally warmer, nature's full color display peaks and there is especially no comparison between the first half of April to the first half of October. October is also generally a drier month when compared to April and has been again, this year thus far with only six tenths /.61"/ recorded thus far. Also, 1.3" of snow fell during the first half of April 2016 versus none this first half of October. In addition; many times measurable snow is the norm during the first half of April (especially across the northern half of the Lakes) versus the rare or infrequent event during the first half of October most regions.

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Octobers in Southeast Lower Michigan

Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
1 44.5 1925 62.7 1963 42.5 1925 59.4 1947 40.6 1925 58.5 1963
2 44.9 1917 60.3 1947 44.3 1980 58.2 1963 42.1 1917 58.2 1947
3 45.3 1895 60.0 1900 44.5 1952 57.6 1971 43.7 1972 58.1 1971
4 45.8 1876 59.5 1920 44.7 1981 57.3 2007 43.9 1988 57.5 1920
5 46.0 1988 59.5 1879 44.8 1988 55.9 1924 44.1 1952 56.8 2007
6 46.3 1980 59.1 2007 45.2 1987 55.7 1946 44.6 1980 55.7 1931
7 46.4 1875 58.5 1971 46.0 2006 55.7 1938 44.7 1981 55.2 1956
8 46.5 1987 58.2 1946 46.1 1964 55.6 1949 45.6 1987 55.0 1973
9 47.0 1889 57.6 1882 46.2 1972 55.3 1973 46.1 2006 54.6 1914
10 47.0 1888 57.5 1956 46.8 1976 55.1 1956 46.1 2002 54.3 1946
11 47.3 1972 57.5 1931 47.3 1993 55.1 1931 46.4 1976 54.2 1938
12 47.3 1909 57.4 1949 47.3 1957 54.4 1950 46.5 1977 54.1 1927
13 47.3 1976 57.4 1924 47.4 2009 54.0 1984 46.9 1926 54.1 1924
14 47.3 1907 57.0 1881 47.6 2002 53.8 2015 47.1 1992 53.8 1949
15 47.5 1981 56.8 1953 47.6 1966 53.7 1953 47.2 1964 53.5 1975
16 47.6 1896 56.7 1927 47.7 2008 53.6 1975 47.5 1945 53.5 1970
17 47.9 1977 56.6 1914 47.9 1945 53.6 1928 47.5 1943 53.5 1928
18 48.0 1887 56.5 1919 48.0 1997 53.5 2000 47.7 2009 53.4 1961
19 48.1 1952 56.4 1950 48.0 1937 53.5 1927 47.8 1993 53.3 1953
20 48.6 1880 56.3 1961 48.1 1992 53.1 1934 47.8 1978 53.1 1955
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to January 1874.

** Flint Bishop temperature records date back to January 1921.

*** Saginaw Area temperature records date back to January 1912.


Scanning the five driest October's on record at Detroit, one sees the driest occurred back relatively recently - back 2005. The average temperature of 55.2 was still close to 3 degrees above normal and another relatively nice October.

 Top 20 Wettest/Driest Octobers in Southeast Lower Michigan

 
Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Wettest Driest Wettest Driest Wettest Driest
Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year
1 7.80 1954 0.13 2005 6.59 2001 0.13 1923 7.78 1954 0.18 1952
2 6.76 2001 0.30 1892 5.52 1941 0.33 2005 5.57 1990 0.28 1956
3 6.52 1881 0.47 1924 4.72 1921 0.33 1944 5.33 1962 0.38 1924
4 5.67 1890 0.50 1964 4.21 1954 0.38 1956 5.29 1951 0.46 1975
5 5.50 1949 0.51 1963 4.20 1929 0.57 1982 5.29 1941 0.48 1982

Some of this data bares out my title of this piece but nothing like the warmest October month (1963) along with it being the 5th driest - now that was a beautiful October and we were beginning El Nino that fall, not La Nina (that occurred the following fall /1964/. Take a look at the DET LCD (Detroit City Arpt) for the month, where the official record was taken at the time. Take note of the short but hot spell that took place the 7th-8th with temps in the lower 90s! Then again, during a much longer 12-day stretch of much above normal temperatures that commenced during our present time-period /16th/ and ran through the 27th. Many days reached temperatures into the lower to mid 80s! In comparison, this October thus far we've had one.

In all; during the glorious month of October of '63, Detroit recorded two 90+ degree days and ten 80 degree or better days. And of those high temperatures /12 days/; seven still remain records! Not to be be outdone, on the rainfall side, just a half inch /.51"/ fell the entire month, over two inches /-2.12/ below the normal at the time.













http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-7B772218-BB4A-4A2B-8EDC-21926BB3DFD6.pdf

And looking out ahead for the remainder of October, while the month should average above normal I see nothing like what happened in 1963 - what an October month, for sure!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian



10/3/16

JUST WHAT IS INDIAN SUMMER AND DID INDIANS REALLY HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT?

Originally written 20 years ago in the Autumn of 1996; my Indian Summer article remains one of the more popular of my articles written. And, still to this day, I receive comments on it and Indian Summer types of weather over many parts of the globe.

JUST WHAT IS INDIAN SUMMER AND DID INDIANS REALLY HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT?

Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian
(originally written in the Autumn of 1996)

An early American writer described Indian Summer well when he wrote, "The air is perfectly quiescent and all is stillness, as if Nature, after her exertions during the Summer, were now at rest." This passage belongs to the writer John Bradbury and was written nearly an "eternity" ago, back in 1817. But this passage is as relevant today as it was way back then. The term "Indian Summer" dates back to the 18th century in the United States. It can be defined as "any spell of warm, quiet, hazy weather that may occur in October or even early November." Basically, autumn is a transition season as the thunderstorms and severe weather of the summer give way to a tamer, calmer weather period before the turbulence of the winter commences.

The term "Indian Summer" is generally associated with a period of considerably above normal temperatures, accompanied by dry and hazy conditions ushered in on a south or southwesterly breeze. Several references make note of the fact that a true Indian Summer can not occur until there has been a killing frost/freeze. Since frost and freezing temperatures generally work their way south through the fall, this would give credence to the possibility of several Indian Summers occurring in a fall, especially across the northern areas where frost/freezes usually come early.

While almost exclusively thought of as an autumnal event, I was surprised to read that Indian Summers have been given credit for warm spells as late as December and January (but then, just where does that leave the "January Thaw" phenomenon?). Another topic of debate about Indian Summer has been "location, location". Evidently, some writers have made reference to it as native only to New England, while others have stated it happens over most of the United States, even along the Pacific coast. Probably the most common or accepted view on location for an Indian Summer would be from the Mid-Atlantic states north into New England, and then west across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Midwest and Great Plains States. In other words, locations that generally have a winter on the horizon! But then, what about the king of winter weather in the United States, Alaska? Do they have an "Indian Summer", or something similar? Some places in Alaska are lucky to have a "summer", let alone an Indian Summer! One would certainly have to throw out the notion of it usually happening in October or November, when, winter generally has already taken an aggressive foothold on much of the state. What about other locations that come to mind, The Rocky Mountain States and parts of Canada, particularity in the east and south? Note: If anyone reading this has any information on Indian Summers in those areas questioned, or just thoughts on Indian Summers drop me a note or comment. (Editors note: Over the years while at the NWS and after, I've received several fascinating notes from all over the world on how common and widespread "Indian Summers" were with each having its own specific local or regional definition).

A typical weather map that reflects Indian Summer weather involves a large area of high pressure along or just off the East Coast. Occasionally, it will be this same high pressure that produced the frost/freeze conditions only a few nights before, as it moved out of Canada across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes and then finally, to the East Coast. Much warmer temperatures, from the deep South and Southwest, are then pulled north on southerly breezes resulting from the clockwise rotation of wind around the high pressure. It is characteristic for these conditions to last for at least a few days to well over a week and there may be several cases before winter sets in. Such a mild spell is usually broken when a strong low pressure system and attending cold front pushes across the region. This dramatic change results from a sharp shift in the upper winds or "jet stream" from the south or southwest to northwest or north. Of course, there can be some modifications to the above weather map scenario, but for simplicity and common occurrence sake, this is the general weather map.

Now we come to the origin of the term itself, "Indian Summer". Over the years, there has been a considerable amount of interest given to this topic in literature. Probably one of the most intensive studies occurred way back around the turn of the century. A paper by Albert Matthews, written in 1902, made an exhaustive study of the historical usage of the term. Evidently, the credit for the first usage of the term was mistakenly given to a man by the name of Major Ebenezer Denny, who used it in his "Journal", dated October 13th, 1794. The journal was kept at a town called Le Boeuf, which was near the present day city of Erie, Pennsylvania. Matthews however, uncovered an earlier usage of the term in 1778 by a Frenchman called St. John de Crevecoeur. It appeared in a letter Crevecoeur wrote dated "German-flats, 17 Janvier, 1778." The following is a translation of a portion of the letter:
"Sometimes the rain is followed by an interval of calm and warmth which is called the Indian Summer; its characteristics are a tranquil atmosphere and general smokiness. Up to this epoch the approaches of winter are doubtful; it arrives about the middle of November, although snows and brief freezes often occur long before that date."
Since the writer says, "it is called the Indian Summer", obviously one could argue that term would have had to been used before him and became popular, but by whom, an earlier explorer or possibly an Indian tribe?

Now, after looking at all of this, the question you might ask yourself is, "Does the term 'Indian Summer' really have anything to do with Indians?" Again, there is host of possibilities, read on...

One explanation of the term "Indian Summer" might be that the early native Indians chose that time of year as their hunting season. This seems reasonable seeing the fall months are still considered the main hunting season for several animals. Also, the mild and hazy weather encourages the animals out, and the haziness of the air gives the hunter the advantage to sneak up on its prey without being detected. Taking this idea one step further, Indians at that time were known to have set fires to prairie grass, underbrush and woods to accentuate the hazy, smokey conditions. But Albert Matthews pointed out that the Indians also did this at other times of the year. Other possibilities include; the Indians made use of the dry, hazy weather to attack the whites before the hard winter set in; that this was the season of the Indian harvest; or, that the predominant southwest winds that accompanied the Indian Summer period were regarded by the Indians as a favor or "blessing" from a "god" in the desert Southwest. Another idea, of a more prejudicial origin, was that possibly the earliest English immigrants equated Indian Summer to "fools" Summer, given the reliability of the resulting weather. Finally, another hypothesis, not at all in the American Indian "camp" of theories, was put forward by an author by the name of H. E. Ware, who noted that ships at that time traversing the Indian Ocean loaded up their cargo the most during the "Indian Summer", or fair weather season. Several ships actually had an "I.S." on their hull at the load level thought safe during the Indian Summer.

In any event, there are several theories or possibilities of the explanation and origin of the term "Indian Summer", yet no one theory has actually been proven. Given the fact it has been centuries since the term first appeared, it will probably rest with its originators. All in all, even with the variety of opinions on this weather (or seasonal) phenomenon, the most popular belief of Indian Summer is as follows...It is an abnormally warm and dry weather period, varying in length, that comes in the autumn time of the year, usually in October or November, and only after the first killing frost/freeze. There may be several occurrences of Indian Summer in a fall season or none at all.

Since Indian Summers are fairly common, it would be interesting to find out if there is any correlation between the years that had no Indian Summer (in a particular area) and the type of winter weather that followed. Oh well, possibly another time and another article but enjoy the Indian Summer while its around, because one thing is for certain, it never lasts!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian