10/18/16

Warm October? You Ain't Seen Nuthin' Yet!

This October of  2016 has been one of the nicer ones thus far but then again; that is not unusual for October in these parts. In addition, the chances of a nicer fall (and projected in the brief fall outlook), is tipped in its favor during La Nina.

Let's look at October's data thus far: 

STATION:   DETROIT MI PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (F-6)
 MONTH:     OCTOBER
YEAR:      2016
LATITUDE:   42 13 N
LONGITUDE:  83 20 W
 
TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
======================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SN DP SPD SPD DIR MIN PSB S-S WX SPD DR
======================================================================
1   69  56  63   5   2   0 0.29  0.0    0  5.8 14 180   M    M  10 138    17 170
2   69  52  61   3   4   0 0.02  0.0    0  4.5 12 290   M    M   6 18     15 270
3   66  53  60   3   5   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.3  8 230   M    M   6 128    11 260
4   74  52  63   6   2   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.1 14 140   M    M   4 128    20 170
5   76  61  69  13   0   4    T  0.0    0  8.4 16 130   M    M   7        22 130
6   79  61  70  14   0   5 0.00  0.0    0  5.2 14 170   M    M   5 18     18 130
7   77  57  67  11   0   2    T  0.0    0  7.4 20 300   M    M   4 18     25 300
8   61  43  52  -3  13   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.0 20 290   M    M   2        26 270
9   62  40  51  -4  14   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.2 15  10   M    M   3        19  10
10 60  39  50  -4  15   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.2 12 140   M    M   2 18     16 170
11 67  48  58   4   7   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.2 13 170   M    M   8 18     16 130
12 78  51  65  11   0   0 0.18  0.0    0 11.4 25 210   M    M   7 18     33 210
13 58  43  51  -2  14   0    T  0.0    0  7.5 20 320   M    M   5        28 320
14 59  39  49  -4  16   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.8 13 130   M    M   2 18     16 160
15 73  42  58   5   7   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.9 20 210   M    M   6 18     24 210
16 69  63  66  14   0   1 0.12  0.0    0 11.2 21 230   M    M   9 18     27 220
17 81  63  72  20   0   7 0.00  0.0    0 13.7 28 210   M    M   7 1      35 220
======================================================================
SM 1178  863        99  19  0.61     0.0 119.8          M       93
======================================================================
AV 69.3 50.8                               7.0 FASTST   M    M   5    MAX(MPH)
MISC ---->  # 28 210               # 35  220
======================================================= 
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 
                                          STATION:  DETROIT MI
                                          MONTH:    OCTOBER
                                          YEAR:     2016
                                          LATITUDE:   42 13 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  83 20 W 
[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]        
AVERAGE MONTHLY: 60.0     TOTAL FOR MONTH:   0.61   
DPTR FM NORMAL:   5.1         DPTR FM NORMAL:   -0.79   
HIGHEST:    81 ON 17                 GRTST 24HR  0.52 ON 30- 1      
LOWEST:     39 ON 14,10                           

With an average temperature right at 60 (above) for better than half of the month, Detroit is averaging a solid five /5.1/ degrees above normal. This is of course, is taking into account the first half of the month's normals - which by the averages, are normally the warmer half. Taking a look at October's normals below, you can see by the 18th, we normally have a HIGH around 60 - not the average /52/. Also, one can see that the records this time of year are in the lower to mid 80s, which we have been flirting with the past day or two (17,18th) but they remain intact.

October - Detroit Records 1874 - Present
October Normals
(1980-2010)		 Maximum Minimum Average Daily
Temperature		 Precipitation
Date Max Min Avg Record
High		 Lowest
Max		 Highest
Min		 Record
Low		 Highest Lowest Greatest Date
1 68 48 58.0 88/1897 46/1920 66/2002 31/1947 76/2002 39/1899 1.55/1945 1
2 67 48 58.0 86/1971 46/1974 66/1927 29/1974 75/1927 38/1974 2.00/1925 2
3 67 48 57.0 89/1953 46/1888 68/2005 24/1974 77/1898 38/1974 3.29/1954 3
4 66 47 57.0 89/1951 45/1980 68/1884 32/1989 77/1951 39/1935 1.06/2000 4
5 66 47 56.0 88/1951 46/1892 67/1941 31/1965 77/1922 41/1935 2.10/1919 5
6 65 46 56.0 91/1963 45/1889 68/1900 30/1935 77/2007 40/1935 2.20/1959 6
7 65 46 56.0 92/1963 44/1896 68/2007 29/1935 79/2007 40/1889 1.50/1951 7
8 65 46 55.0 90/2007 43/1915 68/2007 25/1889 79/2007 39/1895 1.02/1967 8
9 64 45 55.0 86/1949 44/1915 66/1879 28/1989 75/1949 39/1895 1.43/1950 9
10 64 45 54.0 84/1949 42/1906 67/1879 29/1972 75/1949 36/1906 1.03/1932 10
11 63 45 54.0 86/1928 42/1906 65/1879 25/1906 73/1928 34/1906 3.27/1949 11
12 63 44 54.0 84/1995 41/1909 65/1879 26/1875 74/1879 35/1875 1.25/1901 12
13 63 44 53.0 83/1975 40/1909 62/1879 26/1977 70/1930 36/1909 1.57/1983 13
14 62 44 53.0 83/1989 42/1937 59/2014 27/1937 71/1975 35/1937 1.78/2003 14
15 62 43 53.0 86/1897 39/1876 66/1897 24/1876 76/1897 32/1876 1.03/1967 15
16 62 43 52.0 85/1938 37/1875 64/1928 26/1977 71/1958 34/1875 1.92/2001 16
17 61 43 52.0 85/1938 41/1952 67/1879 23/1977 72/1968 37/1952 1.70/1967 17
18 61 43 52.0 84/1963 37/1880 63/1947 24/1976 71/1963 34/1972 1.54/1937 18
19 60 42 51.0 85/1953 35/1930 61/1963 22/1972 71/1953 32/1930 2.02/1985 19
20 60 42 51.0 80/1920 36/1895 62/1920 19/1972 71/1920 32/1974 1.09/1918 20
21 60 42 51.0 81/2007 39/1925 64/1979 17/1974 71/1979 33/1895 0.96/1965 21
22 59 41 50.0 81/1920 40/1997 62/1951 25/1967 71/1979 34/1997 1.98/1929 22
23 59 41 50.0 83/1963 40/1937 59/2012 22/1969 71/1963 33/1969 2.08/1957 23
24 59 41 50.0 81/1963 40/1880 61/1991 22/1981 69/2012 32/1981 1.07/2000 24
25 58 41 49.0 82/1963 38/1887 63/1991 24/1981 72/1963 32/1887 1.09/1991 25
26 58 40 49.0 83/1963 40/1980 61/1991 22/1887 71/1963 32/1887 1.29/1920 26
27 57 40 49.0 78/1927 38/1997 58/1947 22/1976 67/1984 31/1976 1.48/1981 27
28 57 40 48.0 78/1927 35/1925 55/1964 21/1976 64/1927 31/1925 1.13/2015 28
29 57 40 48.0 77/1999 32/1925 64/1946 22/1980 70/1946 28/1925 0.74/1875 29
30 56 39 48.0 76/1999 35/1925 63/1946 20/1980 69/1946 31/1925 1.29/1900 30
31 56 39 48.0 79/1950 34/1917 60/1974 21/1988 70/1950 29/1917 1.59/2013 31

Normal High: 61.6
Normal HDD: Month: 397
Normal Monthly Precip: 2.52
Normal Low : 43.3 Normal HDD Season: 501 Normal Yearly Precip: 28.22
Normal Mean: 52.4 Normal CDD: Month: 8 Ave Snow this Month : 0.1
Normal CDD Season: 803 Ave Snow for the Season: 0.1

Precip: Greatest Monthly Total: 7.80/1954
Snow: Greatest Monthly Total: 2.9/1980
Precip: Least Monthly Total: 0.30/1892 Snow: Least Monthly Total: 0.0/na


Looking at our top 20 warmest (and coldest Octobers) listing for Detroit below, you can see there have been several nice Octobers when looking at its attained temperature averages for the month. Many in the top five were able to hold near the average we have at this time but for the entire month. Looking back at October's spring counter-part April, April is generally a "lousier" month over October (average of 49.2 vs October's 52.4 for a start) across the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan. Therefore, if you are planning a spring or fall vacation across the region, October wins hands-down for this and many more reasons. Again, it's generally warmer, nature's full color display peaks and there is especially no comparison between the first half of April to the first half of October. October is also generally a drier month when compared to April and has been again, this year thus far with only six tenths /.61"/ recorded thus far. Also, 1.3" of snow fell during the first half of April 2016 versus none this first half of October. In addition; many times measurable snow is the norm during the first half of April (especially across the northern half of the Lakes) versus the rare or infrequent event during the first half of October most regions.

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Octobers in Southeast Lower Michigan

Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
1 44.5 1925 62.7 1963 42.5 1925 59.4 1947 40.6 1925 58.5 1963
2 44.9 1917 60.3 1947 44.3 1980 58.2 1963 42.1 1917 58.2 1947
3 45.3 1895 60.0 1900 44.5 1952 57.6 1971 43.7 1972 58.1 1971
4 45.8 1876 59.5 1920 44.7 1981 57.3 2007 43.9 1988 57.5 1920
5 46.0 1988 59.5 1879 44.8 1988 55.9 1924 44.1 1952 56.8 2007
6 46.3 1980 59.1 2007 45.2 1987 55.7 1946 44.6 1980 55.7 1931
7 46.4 1875 58.5 1971 46.0 2006 55.7 1938 44.7 1981 55.2 1956
8 46.5 1987 58.2 1946 46.1 1964 55.6 1949 45.6 1987 55.0 1973
9 47.0 1889 57.6 1882 46.2 1972 55.3 1973 46.1 2006 54.6 1914
10 47.0 1888 57.5 1956 46.8 1976 55.1 1956 46.1 2002 54.3 1946
11 47.3 1972 57.5 1931 47.3 1993 55.1 1931 46.4 1976 54.2 1938
12 47.3 1909 57.4 1949 47.3 1957 54.4 1950 46.5 1977 54.1 1927
13 47.3 1976 57.4 1924 47.4 2009 54.0 1984 46.9 1926 54.1 1924
14 47.3 1907 57.0 1881 47.6 2002 53.8 2015 47.1 1992 53.8 1949
15 47.5 1981 56.8 1953 47.6 1966 53.7 1953 47.2 1964 53.5 1975
16 47.6 1896 56.7 1927 47.7 2008 53.6 1975 47.5 1945 53.5 1970
17 47.9 1977 56.6 1914 47.9 1945 53.6 1928 47.5 1943 53.5 1928
18 48.0 1887 56.5 1919 48.0 1997 53.5 2000 47.7 2009 53.4 1961
19 48.1 1952 56.4 1950 48.0 1937 53.5 1927 47.8 1993 53.3 1953
20 48.6 1880 56.3 1961 48.1 1992 53.1 1934 47.8 1978 53.1 1955
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to January 1874.

** Flint Bishop temperature records date back to January 1921.

*** Saginaw Area temperature records date back to January 1912.


Scanning the five driest October's on record at Detroit, one sees the driest occurred back relatively recently - back 2005. The average temperature of 55.2 was still close to 3 degrees above normal and another relatively nice October.

 Top 20 Wettest/Driest Octobers in Southeast Lower Michigan

 
Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Wettest Driest Wettest Driest Wettest Driest
Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year
1 7.80 1954 0.13 2005 6.59 2001 0.13 1923 7.78 1954 0.18 1952
2 6.76 2001 0.30 1892 5.52 1941 0.33 2005 5.57 1990 0.28 1956
3 6.52 1881 0.47 1924 4.72 1921 0.33 1944 5.33 1962 0.38 1924
4 5.67 1890 0.50 1964 4.21 1954 0.38 1956 5.29 1951 0.46 1975
5 5.50 1949 0.51 1963 4.20 1929 0.57 1982 5.29 1941 0.48 1982

Some of this data bares out my title of this piece but nothing like the warmest October month (1963) along with it being the 5th driest - now that was a beautiful October and we were beginning El Nino that fall, not La Nina (that occurred the following fall /1964/. Take a look at the DET LCD (Detroit City Arpt) for the month, where the official record was taken at the time. Take note of the short but hot spell that took place the 7th-8th with temps in the lower 90s! Then again, during a much longer 12-day stretch of much above normal temperatures that commenced during our present time-period /16th/ and ran through the 27th. Many days reached temperatures into the lower to mid 80s! In comparison, this October thus far we've had one.

In all; during the glorious month of October of '63, Detroit recorded two 90+ degree days and ten 80 degree or better days. And of those high temperatures /12 days/; seven still remain records! Not to be be outdone, on the rainfall side, just a half inch /.51"/ fell the entire month, over two inches /-2.12/ below the normal at the time.













http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-7B772218-BB4A-4A2B-8EDC-21926BB3DFD6.pdf

And looking out ahead for the remainder of October, while the month should average above normal I see nothing like what happened in 1963 - what an October month, for sure!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian


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