SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SUPER BOWL SUNDAY'S SNOWSTORM 2015
DETROIT'S SNOW TOTAL OF 16.7" FOR 2/1 - 2/2/15, PUT IT IN 3RD PLACE FOR
BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD GOING BACK TO 1880.
Snowfall Totals from the February 1-2, 2015 Winter Storm /NWS - DTX/
February started off quite active, as a long duration snow event unfolded across the region bringing the first significant snowfall to Southeast Michigan this winter season. Over the past few months, the area had managed to avoid a lot of the snow while other states have not had such luck. Up through the end of January, areas were below normal for snowfall compared to the record breaking winter season of '13-'14. Then came the storm that ended up dropping over a foot of snow at Detroit Metro Airport!A strong low pressure system developed across the Great Plains and drifted across lower Michigan on Sunday and Sunday night. Snow began in the southern counties around 1am Sunday and snowed continuously throughout the day on Sunday. Better moisture arrived by mid-afternoon resulting in heavier snowfall rates (up to an inch per hour in some locations). The system finally pushed east of the region round 7am Monday morning. This long duration winter storm resulted in snowfall totals between 9 and 15 inches across the Metro Detroit area, with slightly lower amounts across the Thumb and Saginaw Valley regions (3-6 inches).
PNSDTX
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-021730-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...STORM TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1048 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTS
LOCATION SNOWFALL DURATION
(INCHES) (HOURS) LAT LON
...BAY COUNTY...
AUBURN M 7.2 24 43.60N 84.08W
...GENESEE COUNTY...
GOODRICH M 8.5 27 42.92N 83.51W
4 N BURTON M 8.9 27 43.05N 83.62W
7 W FLINT M 8.9 26 43.02N 83.83W
FLINT M 9.2 28 43.02N 83.69W
LINDEN M 10.2 28 42.82N 83.78W
...HURON COUNTY...
5 NNW FILION M 4.2 24 43.96N 83.04W
BAD AXE M 6.0 25 43.80N 83.00W
...LAPEER COUNTY...
4 E DAVISON M 11.0 24 43.03N 83.44W
LAPEER M 11.9 28 43.05N 83.32W
2 W LAPEER M 12.3 28 43.05N 83.36W
...LENAWEE COUNTY...
2 WSW TIPTON M 9.5 30 42.01N 84.10W
MORENCI M 11.7 30 41.72N 84.22W
...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
HOWELL M 10.2 28 42.61N 83.94W
1 N WHITMORE LAKE M 11.0 29 42.44N 83.75W
BRIGHTON E 12.5 M 42.53N 83.78W
...MACOMB COUNTY...
1 NW ROSEVILLE M 10.0 26 42.52N 82.95W
4 NNW RICHMOND M 11.7 28 42.86N 82.78W
SHELBY TOWNSHIP M 15.5 25 42.67N 83.03W
...MIDLAND COUNTY...
MIDLAND M 4.0 24 43.62N 84.23W
OIL CITY M 6.0 24 43.61N 84.59W
...MONROE COUNTY...
DUNDEE M 12.0 30 41.96N 83.66W
CARLETON M 13.1 29 42.06N 83.39W
MONROE M 14.0 28 41.92N 83.39W
3 SW MONROE M 15.0 30 41.89N 83.43W
4 SSE NEWPORT M 15.0 30 41.95N 83.28W
...OAKLAND COUNTY...
1 N FARMINGTON HILLS M 9.0 28 42.50N 83.38W
HOLLY M 9.0 28 42.80N 83.62W
FARMINGTON HILLS M 9.2 28 42.49N 83.38W
CLARKSTON M 9.5 28 42.74N 83.42W
FARMINGTON M 10.6 28 42.46N 83.38W
2 S ORTONVILLE M 11.0 28 42.82N 83.44W
WHITE LAKE M 11.2 28 42.65N 83.50W
4 N NOVI M 11.5 26 42.53N 83.49W
4 N LIVONIA M 12.3 28 42.46N 83.37W
1 ENE ROCHESTER M 13.1 26 42.69N 83.10W
NW SOUTH LYON M 13.7 28 42.46N 83.65W
2 NW WATERFORD M 14.0 28 42.68N 83.42W
LAKEVILLE M 14.0 28 42.82N 83.15W
2 SE LEONARD M 15.0 30 42.85N 83.12W
...SAGINAW COUNTY...
5 S MERRILL M 5.0 24 43.34N 84.34W
2 E MERRILL M 6.0 26 43.41N 84.30W
FRANKENMUTH M 7.4 27 43.33N 83.74W
HEMLOCK M 7.5 24 43.42N 84.23W
SAGINAW M 7.5 27 43.42N 83.95W
CHESANING M 7.7 27 43.18N 84.12W
...SANILAC COUNTY...
LEXINGTON M 10.0 24 43.27N 82.53W
SANDUSKY M 10.0 24 43.42N 82.83W
...SHIAWASSEE COUNTY...
2 NE CORUNNA M 7.0 24 43.00N 84.09W
6 WNW DURAND M 10.5 28 42.95N 84.10W
OWOSSO M 10.5 28 43.00N 84.18W
SHAFTSBURG M 13.2 28 42.80N 84.29W
...ST. CLAIR COUNTY...
1 NNW YALE M 12.2 28 43.14N 82.80W
COLUMBUS M 12.3 25 42.89N 82.67W
ALGONAC M 14.0 27 42.62N 82.53W
...TUSCOLA COUNTY...
CARO M 5.5 26 43.49N 83.40W
1 SSW CASS CITY M 6.5 28 43.59N 83.18W
VASSAR M 7.0 26 43.37N 83.58W
...WASHTENAW COUNTY...
SALINE M 9.5 29 42.18N 83.78W
2 WNW ANN ARBOR M 12.0 29 42.29N 83.77W
SALEM M 12.0 28 42.41N 83.58W
CHELSEA M 12.2 29 42.31N 84.02W
3 SW YPSILANTI M 12.8 29 42.21N 83.66W
MANCHESTER M 13.0 29 42.15N 84.04W
SE ANN ARBOR M 13.5 29 42.28N 83.73W
ANN ARBOR M 14.1 29 42.28N 83.73W
3 NNW MILAN M 15.0 29 42.13N 83.72W
...WAYNE COUNTY...
GROSSE POINTE FARMS M 9.5 29 42.40N 82.89W
DEARBORN M 9.6 29 42.31N 83.21W
3 NE DEARBORN M 10.0 29 42.34N 83.17W
1 NW DEARBORN HEIGHTS M 12.8 M 42.34N 83.29W
2 NNW LIVONIA M 13.5 29 42.42N 83.39W
GARDEN CITY M 13.5 29 42.33N 83.33W
ALLEN PARK M 14.0 28 42.26N 83.21W
NORTHVILLE M 14.2 30 42.44N 83.49W
1 WSW DEARBORN M 14.5 29 42.31N 83.23W
WYANDOTTE M 16.5 28 42.21N 83.16W
ROMULUS M 16.7 28 42.22N 83.37W
BROWNSTOWN TOWNSHIP M 17.0 28 42.15N 83.26W
M = MEASURED
E = ESTIMATED
_______________________________________________________________
Update 2/1/15 - Posted 240PM 2/1/15
As discussed the past few days; our ongoing snowstorm has shown increasing classic
atmospheric phasing; resulting in an outstanding moisture supply and good dynamics for
a major snowstorm across much of Southeast Lower Michigan (see blog updates below
this update)! Yesterday and this morning; the Weather Prediction Center of the NWS in Maryland
agreed with my analysis yesterday (update 1/31/15) on why we had/have the makings of a major,
notable snowstorm across the Southern Great Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley (see below):
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
420 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015
VALID 00Z SUN FEB 01 2015 - 00Z WED FEB 04 2015
...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHEAST... QUITE POSSIBLY THE MOST EXTENSIVE WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUN AND MON. AN AGGRESSIVE AND SHARP NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS IT INCORPORATES SOUTHERN STREAM DYNAMICS AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING SUN MORNING OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED DEEPEN AND TRACK EASTWARD...REACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY SUN EVENING AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MON MORNING. ANOMALOUS PWS FROM MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC/SUBTROPICAL JET AND LOW-LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL SURGE OVER AN EXPANDING COLD SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A POLAR/ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE. THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THE WEST TO EAST AXIS OF FROZEN PRECIP. FOR DAY 1...SUN MORNING INTO EARLY MON...THE GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED ON A HEAVY SNOWFALL AXIS ALONG THE MICH/IND/OH BORDERS INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...WHERE A SLIGHT TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A FOOT OR MORE HAS BEEN INDICATED.
The latest prognostication, surface, radar and satellite data all continue this trend with
just a slight upward tweaking of both amounts and area coverage. I do believe we will
most likely place in the top 25 biggest snowstorms at Detroit with a good chance in the
foot or better category.
SNOWSTORM TOTALS AND WEATHER FORECAST:Snow, heavy at times with considerable blowing and drifting later afternoon into the night. Winds will pick up from northeast at 15 to 25 mph and gusty, becoming north on Monday. Snowfall, with considerable blowing and drifting snow will create near blizzard conditions at times (the winds must at least frequently gust to 35 MPH for a blizzard). Temperatures will drop to around 8 far north to teens south by Monday morning. Ironically, Monday morning is Groundhog Day and I suspect he might be buried and downright crabby if he is pulled out of his hutch; both here and in Punxsutawney Pennsylvania!
Snow Amount Estimates:
Again; I feel the general model trend and intensification are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event: There will be a somewhat sharp line of demarcation from north to south with this system with highest amounts generally to the south of the delineated area. Look for 4" - 7" north/south in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region; 7" - around 12" from the Flint area east across to Port Huron (I-69) and then; south into the Ann Arbor area to Metro Detroit. Further south across the 1-94 corridor to the Ohio border; 12 - 14+" of snow is possible.
____________________________________________________________________________
Update -1/31/15 - Posted 343 PM 1/31/15
First of all up front; let's define Super Snow; when I first sent
that out in the title I was thinking of one of our bigger snowstorms in
Southeast Lower Michigan; particularly in Detroit where the heaviest
snow of the three cities was expected (and still is). I had envisioned
of snowstorms of a foot or more when looking at the chart below. As one
can see by the chart in which I developed years ago at the NWS for the
net (and is kept up to date by the NWS), it's not that easy to officially get a foot or more with just 12 times since 1880 it happening
(good way to remember; 12 for 12). Therefore; I thought that would be a
good place to start when using the play on words and title "Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday"
At that time, the chances looked fairly low for a foot or more when
first issued. Now I'm not so sure they are that low...Detroit's Heaviest Snow Storms | ||
| Rank | Date | Amount |
| 1 | April 6, 1886 | 24.5 |
| 2 | December 1-2, 1974 | 19.3 |
| 3 | March 4-5, 1900 | 16.1 |
| 4 | February 28-March 1, 1900 | 14.0 |
| 5 | December 18-19,1929 | 13.8 |
| 6 | February 12-13 1894 | 12.8 |
| 7 | February 19, 1908 | 12.6 |
| 8 | January 31-February 1,1881 | 12.5 |
| 9 | February 9,1911 | 12.3 |
| 10 | March 3-4,1895 | 12.3 |
| 11 | January 22-23,2005 | 12.2 |
| 12 | January 13-14,1927 | 12.1 |
| 13 | January 30-31,1982 | 11.8 |
| 14 | January 13-14,1910 | 11.4 |
| 15 | March 4-5,1899 | 11.4 |
| 16 | January 2-3, 1999 | 11.3 |
| 17 | December 19-20, 1973 | 11.2 |
| 18 | February 3-4,1901 | 11.2 |
| 19 | March 7-8, 1931 | 11.1 |
| 20 | January 13-14, 1992 | 11.1 |
| 21 | December 31, 2013-January 2, 2014 | 11.1 |
| 22 | February 25-26, 1965 | 11.0 |
| 23 | December 4-5, 1898 | 10.6 |
| 24 | January 4-5, 2014 | 10.6 |
| 25 | January 6, 1994 | 10.3 |
*NOTE: DETROIT'S 16.7" SNOW TOTAL FOR 2/1-2/2/15 PUT IT 3RD PLACE FOR BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD GOING BACK TO 1880.
*Updated 01302020*
Detroit's Heaviest Snow Storms
|
||
Rank
|
Date
|
Amount
|
1
|
April
6, 1886
|
24.5
|
2
|
December
1-2, 1974
|
19.3
|
3
|
February 1-2, 2015
|
16.7
|
4
|
March
4-5, 1900
|
16.1
|
5
|
February
28-March 1, 1900
|
14.0
|
6
|
December
18-19,1929
|
13.8
|
7
|
February
12-13 1894
|
12.8
|
8
|
February
19, 1908
|
12.6
|
9
|
January
31-February 1,1881
|
12.5
|
10
|
February
9,1911
|
12.3
|
11
|
March
3-4,1895
|
12.3
|
12
|
January
22-23,2005
|
12.2
|
13
|
January
13-14,1927
|
12.1
|
14
|
January
30-31,1982
|
11.8
|
15
|
January
13-14,1910
|
11.4
|
16
|
March
4-5,1899
|
11.4
|
17
|
January
2-3, 1999
|
11.3
|
18
|
December
19-20, 1973
|
11.2
|
19
|
February
3-4,1901
|
11.2
|
20
|
March
7-8, 1931
|
11.1
|
21
|
January
13-14, 1992
|
11.1
|
22
|
December
31, 2013-January 2, 2014
|
11.1
|
23
|
February
25-26, 1965
|
11.0
|
24
|
December
11, 2016
|
10.7
|
25
|
January
4-5, 2014
|
10.6
|
Latest guidance has ramped up a major (or worst - best if you are snowstorm nut) snowstorm for extreme Southeast Lower Michigan; while still somewhat lesser amounts north of the Flint into Port Huron. As mentioned in previous blog last night; the moisture and dynamics with this system were coming together for this to be a better, more developed Ohio Valley storm that actually slows down some as it approaches western Pennsylvania on Monday.
It's been my observation over the years, usually these St Louie lows are good achievers (but still not as good as the Gulf Low) in their own right as they "paddle-boat" moisture in from the Gulf while they form and develop while moving across the Ohio Valley. What was originally missing like many times (or at least was questionable) was the phasing or interaction of the dynamics in the upper levels to affect the lower levels of the atmosphere. These dynamics are in the form of short wave energy from the northern Pacific, southern Canada and the Central Pacific - which is observed as a "Cut-off Low" (cut off from the main jet stream). Therefore; the amount of energy that was needed to come together to lift and support the increasing moisture pulled north from the SW and Gulf was questionable to produce a major storm.
This distant player in this system is indeed, the large upper low system of the Baja area of California into the Southwest. Even while remaining nearly stationary, it still has been able to pinwheel spokes of energy and moisture from the Pacific over the southwest part of the country. This moisture has been pushed broadly upward into the south and even central part of the country. While the main system stays put, still enough energy and moisture is forecast to be tapped to aid in development of this major Ohio Valley system. See maps and explanations below:
Snowfall and weather forecast:
Snow will commence during the early morning hours of Sunday. Look for the snow to become heavy at times as the day wears on along with a stiffening northeast wind at 10 to 20 mph. Snow, heavy at times with considerable blowing and drifting later afternoon into the night. Winds will pick up from northeast at 15 to 25 mph and gusty, becoming north on Monday. Considerable blowing and drifting snow with temperatures dropping into the teens to lower 20s by Monday morning. Ironically, Monday morning is Groundhog Day and I suspect he might be buried and downright crabby if he is pulled out of his hutch; both here and in Punxsutawney Pennsylvania!
Snow Amount Estimates:
I feel the general model trend and intensification are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event: There will be a rather sharp line of demarcation from north to south with this system with highest amounts generally to the south of the delineated area. Look for 2" - 4" north/south in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region; 5" - 10" from the Flint area east across to Port Huron and then; south into the Ann Arbor area to Metro Detroit. Further south across the Southeast corner of Lower Michigan 8" - 12" of snow is possible. If the storm deepens further and slows down more - some isolated 12"+ amounts are possible in those areas.
Latest European Model Monday Morn 2/2/15:
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
