11/9/14

Polar Surge Heading for the Region Impressive for November Standards!

I will say; it's been awhile since I've seen the likes of the upcoming cold projected by our models for November (both in intensity and extent) for several days now. First of all, "some 3 - 4 standard deviations below normal" when speaking of the depth of the trough - from WPC. Then today again from WPC - "Well-advertized cold snap will lead the medium range period next week (week coming up) as strong ridging /500MB standard anomaly nearing +4 - which is VERY rare/. Here, the "Italian" gent (I assume) Mr. Fracasso is referring to the giant "ridge or hill" developing off and over the west coasts of the US and Canada and well into Alaska. This, ridge in turn, will grab and help plunge the polar air that two polar vortex's (one, over Siberia/Russian and the other over eastern Canada) have pinwheeling between them in a very cold conveyor-belt more reminiscent of January! Take a look>>>




And the map above is a week from now (11/9) which brings up the third notable item about this cold wave - it's endurance! The polar plunge is slated to push into Southeast Lower Michigan by Tuesday night (below) and then, hang around to get reinforcements into the following week (11/16-22)!



Two other things come to my mind this early on; One- I'll be damn surprised if we don't place in or near the top 10 coldest Novembers - barring any extreme warm-up the last week. The last time we placed in the top 20 record coldest November's list was back 1997, in the 20th position with 37.1 degrees. A colder and much better placement occurred just the year before in 1996 with a 34.2 - which placed 3rd! Ironically, the year before that /1995/ we again placed in coldest Novembers list, with 35.5 degrees - 9th spot.

Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
1 29.8 1880 47.8 1931 31.3 1951 47.3 1975 29.8 1951 47.2 1931
2 33.5 1976 47.6 2001 32.0 1995 46.6 2001 31.6 1995 45.9 1975
3 34.2 1996 46.9 1902 32.6 1996 46.2 1931 32.5 1959 45.5 1902
4 34.5 1875 46.8 1975 33.0 1959 44.4 1934 33.3 1976 45.3 2001
5 34.6 1951 46.6 2011 33.3 1976 43.8 1938 33.6 1933 43.5 1909
6 34.9 1894 46.0 1963 34.3 1936 43.7 2011 33.9 1996 43.2 2009
7 35.2 1967 45.7 1948 34.4 1933 43.3 1963 33.9 1955 43.1 2011
8 35.4 1936 45.5 1994 34.8 1967 43.2 1948 34.2 1989 43.0 1963
9 35.5 1995 45.3 2009 34.8 1955 42.8 1999 34.2 1967 42.4 1999
10 35.5 1911 45.2 1999 35.0 1947 42.5 2003 34.2 1950 42.4 1948


Two - It will be interesting to see if we can challenge the resilient stretch of record low temperatures for mid November that I wrote about here, previously as SE_Mich Weather Historian (and earlier with the NWS). This record cold stretch occurred /1880/ way back near the dawn /1874/ of official records at Detroit and still hold up till this day! Both the intensity of the cold that we experience and timing may be an issue, we'll see. Something to keep in mind, especially if we have snow on the ground at the time. By the way, the last time we had a record low temperature in November is back in 1991 - and we had four during that cold snap.


DETROIT - NOVEMBER RECORD LOW MAXS AND LOWS IN BLUE
18 48 34 41.0 69/1941 18/1880 55/1954 11/1880 60/1954 14/1880 0.97/1929 18
19 47 33 40.0 68/1985 22/1880 58/1985 9/1880 63/1985 16/1880 1.07/1948 19
20 47 33 40.0 70/1942 23/1895 57/1913 12/1880 60/1931 19/1880 1.02/1988 20
21 46 33 39.0 67/1913 12/1880 56/1931 3/1880 61/1931 8/1880 1.16/2007 21
22 46 32 39.0 69/1913 16/1880 57/2010 0/1880 62/1913 8/1880 2.59/1909 22
23 45 32 38.0 69/1931 21/1880 57/1931 8/1880 63/1931 14/1880 1.24/1891 23

Again, if you'd like to read about the November 1880 stretch of record cold, click here.

And if you missed the upcoming winter's outlook, click here.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian