Best Winter Analogue Thus Far; 1981-82...a Closer Look at January Then and Now

As reported in my last blog there in my original analogue set for the Metro Detroit area there were an overwhelming number of analogues that projected a cold winter this go-around for the Winter of 2013-14. As seen below in Fig -1; there were 13 of the original 16 that projected temperatures more than a degree below normal. An extra-ordinary amount when you consider 82% of the selected analogue winters warned of a cold winter. Such a strong signal that I stated; "I can't go against a cold signal this strong and dominant nor from what I'm seeing this fall, therefore below normal it is". 
                                                                                         Fig -1

Then; studying the best performers, I narrowed it down to 5 - 8 analogues that had did a good to great job in projecting December's temperatures for all three cities.

                                                                                            Fig - 2

Finally; up through mid January for the first half of the meteorological winter using Detroit's analogues (largest data set), I narrowed it to six of the eight analogues above (in Fig 3) that projected the first half of the winter best (granted the second half of January is yet to play out - and more on that shortly).


                                                                                          Fig - 3

As the winter plays out, I suspect more cold analogues will step aside revealing the analogues that best performed for the entire winter as far as cold and snow. Remember; these analogues are used only as guidance as NO two winters are ever exactly alike. Think of these majority of players (in the first case; cold and second case; cold & normal to above snow) pointing the direction the upcoming winter is liable to unfold. And in that task, they have done exceedingly well so far into mid winter, one that has performed very well in regard to cold and above normal snow especially in January thus far; 1982...

National View

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Note the blocking pattern in the polar arena over Alaska extending south over the far eastern Pacific and east across the Pole to Greenland in January 1982. In addition, ridging along the West Coast helped deliver the cold across mainly two-thirds of the country. This has been the same similar blocking in the high latitudes that delivered this January's brutal cold wave recently. Back in 1982, the cold came in mainly two brutal waves with dangerous cold and wind chills. Many might remember the weekend of the Super Bowl here in Metro Detroit. From Wikipedia;

The game was played on January 24, 1982, at the Pontiac Silverdome in Pontiac, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit. It marked the first time that a Super Bowl was held at a cold-weather city. The domed stadium saved the crowd at the game from the very cold and snowy weather, but the weather did affect traffic and other logistical issues related to the game. 

Also note the preceding weekend in January and even much later in April;

      A brutal cold snap sends temperatures to all-time record lows in dozens of cities throughout             the Midwestern United States.

• Cold Sunday was a meteorological event which took place on January 17 when unprecedentedly cold air swept down from Canada and plunged temperatures across much of the United States far below existing all-time record lows.
• On April 6 - A blizzard unprecedented in size for April dumps 1-2 feet of snow on the northeastern U.S., closing schools and businesses, snarling traffic, and canceling several major league baseball games.

Finallly; check out Detroit's Local Climatic Data from January 1982 and compare it to this January thus far. I remember January of '82 well; the cold combined with the bitter wind chills are in the blue shaded areas, much like we just experienced earlier this January. An important note about January 1982, the cold waves came down in two mammoth plunges with a third "weaker" plunge on Superbowl weekend. In addition; just like this January, the month wasn't always cold. The mildest week actually occurred the first week (pink shades) of the month, not mid-month like this January - which is more typical of a January Thaw. Another difference; snowfalls during January 1982 were mainly light and scattered before the big dump at the close, which brought the snow total up to 20 inches even. This January, several snow events have already brought more snow /26"/ than in 1982.

Again, remember what I stated earlier - no two months are exactly alike but when you look a little closer, you might see mom nature may be re-running an old show with different players and timing.

Oh, and what about that second bitter cold plunge that occurred January 1982, is that going to be "re-run" too?

I'm glad you asked because it is looking more and more a certainly as the giant Arctic refrigerator has been recharging for yet another bitter cold onslaught. Also at this mid-winter time; I'll update any part of the Outlook if need be; so come back to my blog soon.

 

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000
CXUS53 KDTX 160800
CF6DTW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   DETROIT MI
                                          MONTH:     JANUARY
                                          YEAR:      2014
                                          LATITUDE:   42 13 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  83 20 W

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  17  11  14 -12  51   0 0.30  6.4    3  8.5 16  20   M    M  10 1      28  80
 2  15   4  10 -16  55   0 0.16  4.4   10 15.7 25 360   M    M  10 19     32 360
 3  12  -5   4 -22  61   0    T    T    8  8.7 17 170   M    M   4        23 160
 4  31  10  21  -5  44   0    T    T    8 14.2 29 200   M    M   7        36 200
 5  32  20  26   0  39   0 0.90 10.2    8  7.2 23 320   M    M  10 12     30 320
 6  20 -14   3 -23  62   0 0.06  0.8   16 21.2 32 230   M    M   8 189    38 230
 7  -1 -14  -7 -33  72   0 0.00  0.0   16 18.9 26 210   M    M   4        32 220
 8  16  -7   5 -21  60   0    T    T   15  7.3 16 210   M    M   8 18     17 210
 9  22  -4   9 -17  56   0 0.03  0.6   14  2.3  8 120   M    M   8 18     14 350
10  38  22  30   4  35   0 0.35  0.1   13  6.0 13 170   M    M  10 12     16 110
11  42  34  38  12  27   0 0.23  0.0   10 12.8 28 230   M    M  10 12     33 250
12  37  33  35  10  30   0 0.00  0.0    7 13.2 21 200   M    M   8        29 260
13  45  34  40  15  25   0 0.00  0.0    5 12.3 22 200   M    M   7        29 200
14  39  25  32   7  33   0    T    T    4  9.6 29 210   M    M   7 8      37 220
15  31  21  26   1  39   0    T    T    4 15.7 29 200   M    M  10        38 200
================================================================================
SM  396  170       689   0  2.03    22.5 173.6          M      121
================================================================================
AV 26.4 11.3                              11.6 FASTST   M    M   8    MAX(MPH)
                                 MISC ---->  # 32 230               # 38  230
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:  DETROIT MI
                                          MONTH:    JANUARY
                                          YEAR:     2014
                                          LATITUDE:   42 13 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  83 20 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 18.9   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   2.03    1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL:  -6.9   DPTR FM NORMAL:    1.02    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
HIGHEST:    45 ON 13    GRTST 24HR  0.90 ON  5- 5      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
LOWEST:    -14 ON  7, 6                            3 = THUNDER
                        SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL    4 = ICE PELLETS
                        TOTAL MONTH:  22.5 INCHES  5 = HAIL
                        GRTST 24HR  10.2 ON   M    6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
                        GRTST DEPTH:  16 ON  7, 6  7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
                                                       VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
                                                   8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
[NO. OF DAYS WITH]      [WEATHER - DAYS WITH]      9 = BLOWING SNOW
                                                   X = TORNADO
MAX 32 OR BELOW:  10    0.01 INCH OR MORE:   7
MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    0.10 INCH OR MORE:   5
MIN 32 OR BELOW:  12    0.50 INCH OR MORE:   1
MIN  0 OR BELOW:   5    1.00 INCH OR MORE:   0

[HDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO.   689    CLEAR  (SCALE 0-3)   0
DPTR FM NORMAL    99    PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7)   9
TOTAL FM JUL 1  3168    CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10)  6
DPTR FM NORMAL   281

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian