1/31/15

Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday...Looking Better!

First of all up front; let's define Super Snow; when I first sent that out in the title I was thinking of one of our bigger snowstorms in Southeast Lower Michigan; particularly in Detroit where the heaviest snow of the three cities was expected (and still is). I had envisioned of snowstorms of a foot or more when looking at the chart below. As one can see by the chart in which I developed years ago at the NWS for the net (and is kept up to date by the NWS), it's not that easy to officially get a foot or more with just 12 times since 1880 it happening (good way to remember; 12 for 12). Therefore; I thought that would be a good place to start when using the play on words and title "Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday" At that time, the chances looked fairly low for a foot or more when first issued. Now I'm not so sure they are that low...



Detroit's Heaviest Snow Storms

RankDateAmount
1 April 6, 1886 24.5
2 December 1-2, 1974 19.3
3 March 4-5, 1900 16.1
4 February 28-March 1, 1900 14.0
5 December 18-19,1929 13.8
6 February 12-13 1894 12.8
7 February 19, 1908 12.6
8 January 31-February 1,1881 12.5
9 February 9,1911 12.3
10 March 3-4,1895 12.3
11 January 22-23,2005 12.2
12 January 13-14,1927 12.1
13 January 30-31,1982 11.8
14 January 13-14,1910 11.4
15 March 4-5,1899 11.4
16 January 2-3, 1999 11.3
17 December 19-20, 1973 11.2
18 February 3-4,1901 11.2
19 March 7-8, 1931 11.1
20 January 13-14, 1992 11.1
21 December 31, 2013-January 2, 2014 11.1
22 February 25-26, 1965 11.0
23 December 4-5, 1898 10.6
24 January 4-5, 2014 10.6
25 January 6, 1994 10.3


Latest guidance has ramped up a major (or worst - best if you are snowstorm nut) snowstorm for extreme Southeast Lower Michigan; while still somewhat lesser amounts north of the Flint into Port Huron. As mentioned in previous blog last night; the moisture and dynamics with this system were coming together for this to be a better, more developed Ohio Valley storm that actually slows down some as it approaches western Pennsylvania on Monday.

It's been my observation over the years, usually these St Louie lows are good achievers (but still not as good as the Gulf Low) in their own right as they "paddle-boat" moisture in from the Gulf while they form and develop while moving across the Ohio Valley. What was originally missing like many times (or at least was questionable) was the phasing or interaction of the dynamics in the upper levels to affect the lower levels of the atmosphere. These dynamics are in the form of short wave energy from the northern Pacific, southern Canada and the Central Pacific - which is observed as a "Cut-off Low" (cut off from the main jet stream). Therefore; the amount of energy that was needed to come together to lift and support the increasing moisture pulled north from the SW and Gulf was questionable to produce a major storm.

This distant player in this system is indeed, the large upper low system of the Baja area of California into the Southwest. Even while remaining nearly stationary, it still has been able to pinwheel spokes of energy and moisture from the Pacific over the southwest part of the country. This moisture has been pushed broadly upward into the south and even central part of the country. While the main system stays put, still enough energy and moisture is forecast to be tapped to aid in development of this major Ohio Valley system. See maps and explanations below:

Snowfall and weather forecast:

Snow will commence during the early morning hours of Sunday. Look for the snow to become heavy at times as the day wears on along with a stiffening northeast wind at 10 to 20 mph. Snow, heavy at times with considerable blowing and drifting later afternoon into the night. Winds will pick up from northeast at 15 to 25 mph and gusty, becoming north on Monday. Considerable blowing and drifting snow with temperatures dropping into the teens to lower 20s by Monday morning. Ironically, Monday morning is Groundhog Day and I suspect he might be buried and downright crabby if he is pulled out of his hutch; both here and in Punxsutawney Pennsylvania!

Snow Amount Estimates:
I feel the general model trend and intensification are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event: There will be a rather sharp line of demarcation from north to south with this system with highest amounts generally to the south of the delineated area. Look for 2" - 4" north/south in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region; 5" -  10" from the Flint area east across to Port Huron and then; south into the Ann Arbor area to Metro Detroit. Further south across the Southeast corner of Lower Michigan 8" - 12" of snow is possible. If the storm deepens further and slows down more - some isolated 12"+ amounts are possible in those areas.









Latest European Model Monday Morn 2/2/15:

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian


1/30/15

Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday? Well, Maybe Some Snow...

Late Night Update - 1/30/15

As data becomes bettered sampled, I believe the track of the low may bit a further north then the Ohio River Valley, closer to the NAM guidance at 12z and now 00z. This track would take the low from the St Louis area...slightly east northeast to between Indianapolis and Evansville...across Dayton to south of Columbus. This system will have an ample supply of moisture coming in from both the southwest and later; the gulf. That's one of its big pluses for snow amounts, a broad area of moisture. The big negative will be the cold, Arctic high in the northern lakes funneling dry air into the Saginaw Valley and Thumb leading to a distinct cut off of the heavier snow. I've upped the snow totals based on the strong consensus of the model precipitation; albeit still allowing for a bit of a cut back of the NAM snowfall totals. See general snow amounts forecast below:

I feel the NAM's storm track and GFS snowfall are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event: There will be a rather sharp line of demarcation from north to south with this system. Look for 1" - 4" north/south in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region; 4" -  8" from the Flint area east across to Port Huron and then south into the Ann Arbor area to Metro Detroit. Further south across the Southeast corner of Lower Michigan 7" - 10" of snow is possible.

As the system continues to be better sampled, look for updates on this evolving storm.

_________________________________________________________________________
Original -1/30/15 - 
Our meteorological guidance is converging on a likelihood of a snowy Super Bowl Sunday across Southeast Lower Michigan; particularity in the south. All the latest model information tracks a low pressure center across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Depending on the exact path of the storm will determine snowfall amounts across the region.

At this time; given the guidance and meteorological background; I think the NAM is too wet and predicts too much snowfall over Southeast Lower Michigan (5" - 12"+ - highest south). Whereas the GFS's track and snowfall are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event (1" - 3" north &  3" - 7" south). Not surprising (as compared to the GFS), the European and Canadian Models are painting a similar picture for extreme Southeast Lower Michigan as far as snowfall but with just an inch or two over the far north (Saginaw Valley/Thumb region). Of course; as better data is sampled tonight and tomorrow these amounts could change but that's the way it looks to me at this time.

Our NAM Model:
Has the track of the storm center the furthest north (and thus the most moisture 
and snowfall) with the center moving across central Indiana and Ohio.


Our GFS Model:
Has the track of the storm center a bit further south across the Ohio River Valley (and somewhat less snowfall) with the center moving on a line pretty much from St Louis thru Louisville to Cincinnati.


The European /ECMWF/ Model:  Note in two time panels 12z Sun and 12z Mon with the 60Hr N/A; moves is further south across mainly southern Missouri and central Kentucky to southern W Virginia.




The Canadian /GEM/ Model:
It is pretty much in an agreement with the Euro and moving it across the Ohio River Valley.



I'll update with later guidance on Saturday, or if need be... late tonight.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

1/26/15

As the Northeast Braces for Their Blizzard; We Have One of Our Own to Celebrate on the Same Date 1/26; Back in '78!

"A GREAT STORM IS UPON MICHIGAN" THE GREAT BLIZZARD OF 1978!

"A GREAT STORM IS UPON MICHIGAN"
THE GREAT BLIZZARD OF 1978!

Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian - Southeast Lower MI

As with the huge snowstorm of December 1974 another even more powerful (in terms of intensity/extent) storm is of strong interest to all meteorologists who have studied winter storms in the Great Lakes. This storm is also of interest and remembrance to many longtime residents of the Great Lakes, the Upper Ohio Valley and Ontario, Canada who had to deal with winter's full fury late in January of 1978. In addition, the storm certainly casts many memories for those of us who were on duty and worked during the storm...while being in awe of the development and subsequent immense strength of this great monster. With the 36th anniversary of this Great Blizzard at hand, it is worth taking a step back in time to re-live this monumental example of nature's fury.

While there are several contenders for the worst blizzard ever to hit the Great Lakes in relatively modern times (since 1870 when records began in Detroit), the immense and intense Blizzard of January 26-27th 1978 must rank at or near the top along with the Great White Hurricane of 1913 with its similar track and powerfulness.

The incredible Blizzard of January 26-27th, 1978 evolved out of a winter that was infamous for cold and storms. The Winter of 1977-78 thus far had been one the coldest, since records began, in many areas from the Rockies eastward to the Appalachians. Mammoth blizzards occurred late in January and early February from the Midwest to the East Coast as strong Arctic plunges dove south into the country and met up with the warmer winds from the deep south. The winter of 1977-78 was similar to its predecessor (1976-77) in terms of cold. The main difference between the two winters, however, came in February. In 1977, temperatures moderated rapidly during February, while in 1978, the cold actually worsened - with several locations reporting their coldest recorded February to date. The Winter of 1977-78 is written down in the record books as Detroit's seventh coldest winter, Flint's fifth coldest and Saginaw's sixth. West of the Rockies, it was a different story as a dominant upper ridge of high pressure provided a relatively mild winter, with some stations even reporting one of their warmest winters on record.

The Great Storm

Since there were some forecasted variances of the intensity and track of the storm, and considering the primitive model of the day (LFM - Limited Fine Mesh), forecasters did an admirable job in forecasting one of the most severe winter storms ever to hit the Great Lakes Region.

A Winter Storm Watch was posted as early as Tuesday night, the 24th, for the southern half of the Lower Peninsula for Wednesday Night into Thursday. Gale Warnings for the Great Lakes were hoisted the following Wednesday morning, along with the Watch. A weaker system had moved through the region earlier during the day on Tuesday and already dropped some snow on the region (a Winter Storm Watch had been issued for this system as well, earlier on Monday, the 23rd). After Tuesday's snow, the headline on the Special Weather Statement that was issued by the NWS Tuesday evening read as follows: "Another Winter Storm Threatens Lower Michigan" and thus, a second Winter Storm Watch was officially posted.

Meanwhile, the ingredients of what would later prove to be a truly fascinating yet vicious winter storm were coming together from different parts of the country. As with the "White Hurricane of 1913," the massive storm actually began as two smaller but distinct storms. A strong low pressure with an attending arctic air mass was entering the Northern Plains by way of Northern Minnesota on Tuesday evening (24th). At the same time, another developing low pressure system was taking shape over the eastern Texas/Louisiana area.

The phasing of two distinct jet streams aloft proved to be the key as to the subsequent strength and massive extent of the storm. A very strong and energetic Arctic impulse surged almost due south and plowed the Arctic front through the Northern Plains late on the 24th. At the same time, another very strong upper wind impulse surged south through southern Arizona. These two jet streaks made up the larger North American jet stream as a huge upper ridge of high pressure along the West Coast of the U.S. diverted the powerful Pacific Jet north into Northern Canada. This northern jet (containing a wind max of 110 knots) then dove due south, like on a giant roller coaster, across the western U.S. as the second, subtropical jet (with an even stronger wind max of 130 knots) surged across southwestern states. On Wednesday (25th), a deepening area of low pressure made its way east across the Gulf States into Georgia by evening (surface | 500mb). Meanwhile, across the north, the Arctic front barreled east across the Upper Midwest into the Western Lakes by Wednesday evening.

Earlier that Wednesday morning, the Winter Storm Watch for Southeast Lower Michigan was changed to a Heavy Snow Warning, while a Travelers Advisory was issued for Western and Northern Lower Peninsula. Later, at the issuance of the evening forecast, the entire Lower Peninsula was upgraded to a Heavy Snow Warning. Meanwhile, a rapid deepening of the surface low over the southeast portion of the country also commenced on Wednesday evening. As the low intensified over Alabama and Georgia, Atlanta registered its lowest barometric pressure ever late on the 25th. At the same time, further north in Michigan, snow was falling over much of the Lower Peninsula. In and around the Ann Arbor and Metro Detroit, the snow mixed with or changed to light rain Wednesday night as slightly warmer air surged northwest 500mb chart, 00z January 26th, 1978; click to enlarge into that area ahead of the deepening storm. While the storm was organizing in the lower levels of the atmosphere over Georgia, the Subtropical and Arctic jet aloft began to merge and phase over the Southeast part of the country. This merging of jet streaks contained a wind max of 150 knots which helped induce a rapid intensification of the Georgia Low as it surged northward into West Virginia early on the 26th. Record low barometric pressures were set all along its path as an ominous track (trough) began to materialize toward the Eastern Great Lakes.

Bands of heavier snow spread north into much of Southern Lower Michigan during the very early morning hours of the 26th. Rain continued to fall, however, over the extreme southeast corner of Lower Michigan. At 1 AM EST, rain was observed at Detroit Metro Airport with the temperature comfortably above freezing at 36 degrees. Further north at Flint, however, sleet and freezing rain were falling as the temperature hovered around freezing. Air pressure tendencies were noted as falling rapidly /PRESFR/ and continued that way for several hours (in fact, several stations in this storms path had to re-adjust their barographs for station pressures traces that were BELOW initial chart scale).
The aforementioned Arctic cold front that was across the Western Great Lakes advanced steadily east into Lower Michigan as the main southern low underwent explosive deepening (this low's central pressure fell 40 millibars in 24 hours)! The central pressure was recorded at 28.28 inches as it tracked north across eastern Ohio, just west of Cleveland, at 7AM EST. As the low moved out over Lake Erie, the Arctic cold front over Southeast Lower Michigan was pulled sharply east into it's mammoth cyclonic circulation. Any residual rain over Southeast Lower Michigan quickly changed to heavy snow and blowing snow during the pre- dawn hours of the 26th. As the Arctic front plowed through the Cleveland area, the wind gusted to an incredible 82 mph! As the Arctic air flooded the Cleveland area, the temperature dropped from a relatively balmy 44 degrees at 4AM EST to a bitterly cold 7 degrees by 1000 AM EST.

Blizzard Warnings were hoisted across much of the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley Region by daybreak Thursday. The center of the huge storm (surface | 500mb) continued to trek north northwest across Southwest Ontario (roughly between Chatham and London) while Detroit measured its lowest pressure reading at 28.34 inches at 650 AM EST. The incredibly deep center made its way north along the St. Clair River with Sarnia ON reporting the lowest pressure on land at 28.21 inches. Not only was the depth of this mammoth storm's center very impressive, so too was the extent of low pressure from its center. Even locations that were far removed from the storm's center also reported record low pressures. Stations such as Cincinnati OH, Rochester NY and Toronto ON and even as far east as Wilmington N.C., all recorded record low pressure readings from this monster. In fact, at Toronto, where records go back as far back as 1840, the lowest pressure reading of 28.40 inches broke the old record of 28.57 inches by 0.17 inches. In addition, dozens of other cities, with records going back a century, also recorded their lowest pressure reading of all time or, for at least the month of January. This massively intense storm was responsible for strong wind gusts as far away from the center as Boston /72 MPH/ and Chesapeake Bay Bridge /90 MPH/ with even damaging winds reported as far south as Tallahassee FL.

As the Arctic air circulated throughout the storm while it made its way over Lake Huron, the lowest pressure was reached around 950 millibars or a hurricane-like 28.05 inches! "A Great Storm is Upon Michigan" read the headline of the 800 AM EST Special Weather Statement issued by the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Ann Arbor that Thursday /26th/ morning. Heavy snow and blizzard conditions were extensive as wind gusts in excess of 35 mph whipped the snow into huge drifts across much of Southeast Lower Michigan. Other areas of Eastern Michigan, Indiana and Ohio reported near hurricane-force winds, heavy snow and temperatures hovering between zero and 10 above, resulting in extreme blizzard conditions. These conditions later expanded further east into Pennsylvania and West Virginia and prevailed into the night (26-27th) across much of the Eastern Great Lakes, Southern Ontario and the Upper Ohio Valley. With the storm generating copious amounts of snow and very strong winds, whiteout conditions were widespread. All land and air traffic came to a stand still in the affected regions. Several major roads were closed for at least two to three days, if not longer, while clean up got underway. Numerous NWS employees were stranded at work, home, or on the road somewhere between the two. Several employees worked double shifts into at least Friday (some longer) because of the impassable roads with others simply unable to get to work.

The Blizzard Warnings were allowed to die across Michigan during the forenoon hours of Friday, the 27th. Record 24 hour snowfall totals from the storm included, 16.1 inches at Grand Rapids, 15.4 inches at Houghton Lake and 12.2 at Dayton, OH. Snowfalls for the entire storm (25-27th) included a whopping 30.0 inches at Muskegon (some of which was Lake Michigan enhanced), 19.3 inches at Lansing and 19.2 at Grand Rapids. Snowfalls were less over Southeast Lower Michigan (mainly because of the rain that fell for a period) and included 9.9 inches at Flint and 8.2 inches at Detroit.

The following is a quote from the summary written about the storm by Meteorologist in Charge, C.R. Snider on January 30th, 1978 at the National Weather Service Ann Arbor:

"The most extensive and very nearly the most severe blizzard in Michigan history raged throughout Thursday January 26, 1978 and into part of Friday January 27. About 20 people died as a direct or indirect result of the storm, most due to heart attacks or traffic accidents. At least one person died of exposure in a stranded automobile. Many were hospitalized for exposure, mostly from homes that lost power and heat. About 100,000 cars were abandoned on Michigan highways, most of them in the southeast part of the state."
The employees of the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Ann Arbor had just set up shop at the new quarters at the Ann Arbor Federal Building a WEEK before the storm hit. The forecast staff had transferred from the Detroit Metropolitan Airport Office while the observing and radar staff remained at the airport. The majority of employees still lived in and around the metro Detroit area and all major roads between Detroit and Ann Arbor were blocked for approximately 18 hours due to the storm. Several employees put forth efforts beyond the call of duty, stated Mr. Snider in his storm report.

Yet, as mentioned earlier, the Winter was not yet over by any means as the month of February (after the storm) was brutally cold across much of country. The below normal temperature departures of February 1978 were strikingly similar to that of January 1978 (and in some places, February was actually colder). The average temperature for Detroit that winter came in at just 20.5 degrees /normal 27.1/ which again, made it the seventh coldest winter on record. Snowfall totaled a hefty 61.7 inches which made the winter of 1977-78 the eighth snowiest winter on record at Detroit. Flint's average temperature of 19.1 degrees made it the fifth coldest winter on record, but Flint received less snow than Detroit with 50.6 inches /19th snowiest/. Saginaw's winter average temperature of 17.9 degrees made it the sixth coldest winter on record and was accompanied by 55.6 inches of snow, making it the just the 20th snowiest winter.

Here is the classification of the Blizzard of '78 !


Here are the top 25 snowstorms for Detroit and note, Jan 26-28 is NOT in the list, since only 8.2" fell officially at Detroit Metro Airport. Much higher amounts fell further west over South-central and Southwest Lower Michigan.

RankDateAmount
1 April 6, 1886 24.5
2 December 1-2, 1974 19.3
3 March 4-5, 1900 16.1
4 February 28-March 1, 1900 14.0
5 December 18-19,1929 13.8
6 February 12-13 1894 12.8
7 February 19, 1908 12.6
8 January 31-February 1,1881 12.5
9 February 9,1911 12.3
10 March 3-4,1895 12.3
11 January 22-23,2005 12.2
12 January 13-14,1927 12.1
13 January 30-31,1982 11.8
14 January 13-14,1910 11.4
15 March 4-5,1899 11.4
16 January 2-3, 1999 11.3
17 December 19-20, 1973 11.2
18 February 3-4,1901 11.2
19 March 7-8, 1931 11.1
20 January 13-14, 1992 11.1
21 December 31, 2013-January 2, 2014 11.1
22 February 25-26, 1965 11.0
23 December 4-5, 1898 10.6
24 January 4-5, 2014 10.6
25 January 6, 1994 10.3

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian



1/22/15

Update 1/23/15 - Parade of Clippers Only Systems Bringing Snow This Slow Season

-Update 1/23/15

Latest model information has been weakening the low pressure to move through the Ohio Valley on Sunday or drifting it further south. Therefore; only the southern third of Southeast Lower Michigan will see snow on Sunday and generally just an inch or two.

_____________________________________________________________________


Virtually all the snow received this paltry winter storm season over Southeast Lower Michigan has been the result of some Alberta Clipper type low pressure system. True; some impressive lake effect snows have resulted with the cold Arctic air sweeping over the Great Lakes but that's been local effects downwind of the Great Lakes, leaving only light amounts here.

Recent light snows this past few weeks have "nickled and dimed" the region enough to bring normal to even above normal snows to Southeast Lower Michigan for January...and we aren't done yet. The entire region is below normal for the winter but probably surprisingly, not that much. The prolific snow making month of November (and now January) helped out there with above normal snows. On average; the region has averaged just 2" - 6" below the normal snowfall expected thru this midwinter season. The main reason it seems like we've had less snow is that we haven't had any big snows (big meaning 6" or more) AND it was so snowy last winter. This winter's snow accumulation thus far is a far, far cry from last winter's when record snows were measured in most areas from the I-69 region (Flint to Port Huron) south across the Ann Arbor and Metro Detroit areas to the Ohio border!

As of the 22nd; 17 1/2 inches of snow /17.4"/ has been recorded at Detroit Metro Airport this snow season; 2.8" below normal  Flint has received more with 22 1/2 inches /22.5"/ but is still below its normal by 1.6". Further north around the Saginaw Valley, less snow has fallen this season with just 14.3", about 6" below normal.

Stronger Clipper This Weekend May Bring Better Snows Southeast Lower Michigan

Early but consecutive guidance on another upcoming Clipper Low Pressure system is that it will affect the area later this weekend. The low and storm center advances quickly southeast across the Upper Midwest and into the northern Ohio Valley, Sunday and Sunday night. Most guidance has been stronger with this system than the past several that affected the area - along with a bit better moisture supply. The devil is in the details as far as exact track and pressure differences with ensemble GFS members quite variable with both. Though, I would not be surprised if this system, like the last, tracks further north than the map below depicts and thus, it is used for a median track.


As this early time frame /Thursday evening/; look for the storm to bring a swath of light to moderate snowfall across Southeast Lower Michigan on Sunday. How much snowfall will depend on the exact track of the system. Clippers as a rule contain sharp lines of demarcation between snow and no snow on the southern extent of their track. Meaning; if the low tracks further north than the maps suggest below, less snow will fall particularly over extreme Southeast Lower Michigan...closest to the track. On the other side of this envisioned storm track; if she were to track further south then the Saginaw valley and other areas north would receive less snow. I'll fine tune the track into the weekend in updates but as it stands now; 2"-4" of snow is likely with even a higher core amount of 3"-5" possible. Again this is preliminary from what I'm seeing at this time but plan accordingly as this system has the potential to be weaker...or stronger at this early date.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

1/17/15

Let's Take a Break from the Hibernating Cold to Look at Mom Nature at Her Grandest!

These pictures are just too beautiful and grand not to share! Try too look at them without doing the "ink-blot test"; you can't...each one reminds you of some beautiful spiritual, heavenly or earthly image. Mother Nature the Grand Dame Artist! Imagine this after a big blizzard, sort of a "winter rainbow" though nothing to do with the meteorological storm per se'.

Amazing aurora! An unexpected CME impact on Jan. 7 created a strong geomagnetic storm (G3 out of 5.) And beautiful aurora ensued! These images come from Ruslan Akhmetsafin in Russia, Aykhal; Greg Syverson in Prudhoe Bay Alaska; Arctic Fishing Adventures in Tromsö, Norway and more from Ruslan Akhmetsafin in Russia, Aykhal. All these were shared at spaceweather.com

For more on aurora's!









Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

1/2/15

Update 1/8/15 - Another Strong Arctic Impulse To Make Being Outside & Travel Hazardous Into Tonight!

1/8/15 - Update

As mentioned in last post 

"Other impulses surging southeast in the cold cyclonic flow aloft will bring the risk of light snow or snow showers to the region thru the rest of the week but nothing extraordinary or heavy is expected at this time."

Latest data on another quickly moving Arctic impulse along with strong surface convergence zone over Wisconsin, indicates a band of mainly 1-3" with local amounts near 4" of snow are likely for the region. The snow will begin late this afternoon over western counties and be over much of  Southeast Lower Michigan by sunset. This band of snow will continue into the first half of the night as it plows thru the region rapidly from west to east. Considerable blowing and drifting will accompany the system as a reinforcement of Arctic air moves across the region.

As a result, hazardous travel will be in full force dark along with bitter cold wind chills as low as -15 to -25 with temperatures in the single digits above and below zero! It will be a wicked night outside as dangerously very cold wind chills accompanying the blustery, snowy conditions. Take care if you must go out and/or travel. Because of the relatively uneventful season thus far; this system should be our best (or worst, depending point of view) this season thus far.

1/5/15 - Update

Latest indications have clipper moving faster than discussed back on the 2nd along with a more southern track. While dynamics are adequate for a band of moderate to heavy snow, it will be well south of Southeast Lower Michigan across central and southern Indiana and Ohio tonight into early Tuesday. 

Up here in Southeast Lower Michigan, I would look for little if any snowfall across the Saginaw Valley into the Thumb from the clipper. An inch or less is likely from the Flint to Port Huron areas south into Howell and east across Detroit's northern suburbs. The southern third of the region - roughly from Ann Arbor thru Detroit and points south - will generally see around an inch; possibly two near the Ohio border. Other impulses surging southeast in the cold cyclonic flow aloft will bring the risk of light snow or snow showers to the region thru the rest of the week but nothing extraordinary or heavy is expected at this time.

The big news this week will continue to be the Arctic cold along with a record or near record (for January & depending on locality in the Plains and Midwest) high pressure as it pushes into the Plains and Midwest. After, the high pressure core will weaken with time.  Detroit's barometric high pressure record for January sits at 31.03" /1050.8Mb/ occurring way back in January of 1927. The record of all time is just one hundredth more - 31.04" /1051.1 Mb/ which actually occurred twice; Feb 1934 and March of 1948. All three of these record high pressure readings are safe as the high pressure core will circumnavigate the Great Lakes and weaken.



Temperatures during the week will average well below normal with coldest readings in the single digits to near 10 for highs; while lowest fall into the single digits below zero to possibly as low as -10 to -13 under any intermittent clear skies in the south. Along with the coldest readings expected, another big factor at times will be the dangerously cold wind chills particularly ahead of the Arctic mound of high pressure Wednesday into Thursday.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian


_________________________________________________________________________

Original 1/2/15 -


In my last blog, I spoke of the weekend potential snowstorm's demise and issued the likely unfolding scenario of the system yesterday, New Year's Day.

" Here we are again with a storm taking aim on the Great Lakes - and here we are again -  likely to miss a significant snowfall. Why? The decided storm track will likely again be anti-climatic for Southeast Lower Michigan to experience a big storm. Latest indications are the low pressure will begin developing over eastern Texas, slide north northeast thru Western Arkansas, Missouri, southern Illinois and on northward across northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan. From there, best track at this time appears to be over or near Battle Creek, Lansing and Saginaw then out over Lake Huron while she deepens. 

Does this mean all chances snow or even mixed precipitation have gone by the wayside? No. As the low approaches and pushes the warmer, moisture laden air over the cold air and landscape I look for a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to overspread Southeast Lower Michigan during the day Saturday; changing over the rain across the region by Saturday night then back to snow and snowshowers overnight. The best chance for any accumulations of snow will be again, like the last storm, over the Saginaw Valley at the onset and behind the system."

This system still looks too warm to bring any large amounts of snow to the region. That being said; the latest storm track is a bit further southeast and closer to my original thinking; east northeast across the Tri-state area of Indiana/Ohio/Michigan then onward over the southeast corner of Lower Michigan and into southwest Ontario. This southeast shift of track almost guarantees a period of mixed precipitation across Southeast Lower Michigan along with some snow accumulations at the onset and behind the system (as mentioned yesterday). 

While precipitation will begin as snow, sleet and/or freezing rain; any snow accumulations will be minor in the southern areas (Ann Arbor - Metro Detroit - Adrian - Monroe areas) mainly amounting to an inch or less. The bigger headache will be traveling during the morning and early afternoon hours everywhere where the combination of mixed precipitation and cold ground makes driving hazardous until temperatures climb above freezing. Further north into the Howell - Pontiac - Flint - Port Huron areas a couple inches of snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain may get a chance to accumulate an inch or two before the change to rain. Again the furthest north-northwest areas, into the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region could see 2-3" of snow, sleet and freezing rain before mixing and changing 

to rain.

Impressive Strong Cold Air Advection Will Bring Coldest Air of the Season and Dangerous Wind Chills into Early Next Week !

Strong Arctic high pressures surging out of Canada this next week will bring impressive cold air advection and pressure gradients due to the high pressure cores. Central estimate pressure readings at this time of 1045 - 1057 MB /30.85 - 31.20 IN/ are expected to flood into the country. These strong high pressure readings and the tight gradients of cold air advection will bring dangerous low wind chills in the upcoming week; at times well below zero! Air temperatures of teens and single figures are likely much of the time, however coldest lows could fall below zero on some morning.

Take a look at this neat animation of the Polar Vortex split and Arctic conveyor belt from the North Pole vantage affecting the upcoming system for this week.

Potent Clipper to Bring a Round of Snow and Wind Tuesday into Tuesday Night

A fast moving Alberta Clipper should push an area of snow across the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, Tuesday into Tuesday night. While this system will be quickly moving and somewhat limited in moisture, it will deposit a swath of measurable snow across all or parts of the region.  I say somewhat limited on moisture because as a rule, these storm systems tend to be on the drier side. Early indications however, do show encouraging moisture amounts and snowfalls of possibly generally 1-3"or even 2-4". This is EARLY, so you know the scoop; don't count on those amounts until you see the definite track, moisture and whites of the flakes! ;-) You know how Mom Nature's been cheap with the snow this season as opposed to last! In any event; it WILL BE COLD this week!



While winter's been stubborn to take residence over the country and Great Lakes this cold season; this week should let everyone know what season it is!

Updates likely this upcoming week!


Have a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year for 2015!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian



1/1/15

Another Potential Snowstorm Bites The Flurries

At the end of my last blog on December 27th, I stated the following...
 
"Near Term Outlook

As you can tell by some of the prognostic data presented here there is a change afoot this week anyway; and when there is a change in the overall pattern that usually involves a storm and colder air. Well again the models are dancing around with possibilities of a New Years weekend storm /3rd-4th/ and again it's everything from a major snowstorm to rain or freezing rain to nothing for us. Stay Tuned!" 

While mentioning a variety of outcomes possible with this system, many of us - me included- where hoping for the season's first major snowstorm as the models showed an array of possible scenarios. Some snow lovers who were stung just a week earlier with the snowstorm-no-show for a white Christmas, were leery of the model's promise of a storm New Year's weekend! I was not hopeful for the Christmas storm and was a little more juiced up for the second; but still was not at all satisfied with the prospects.

Here we are again with a storm taking aim on the Great Lakes - and here we are again -  likely to miss a significant snowfall. Why? The decided storm track will likely again be anti-climatic for Southeast Lower Michigan to experience a big storm. Latest indications are the low pressure will begin developing over eastern Texas, slide north northeast thru Western Arkansas, Missouri, southern Illinois and on northward across northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan. From there, best track at this time appears to be over or near Battle Creek, Lansing and Saginaw then out over Lake Huron while she deepens.   



 



Does this mean all chances snow or even mixed precipitation have gone by the wayside? No. As the low approches and pushes the warmer, moisture laden air over the cold air and landscape I look for a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to overspread Southeast Lower Michigan during the day Saturday; changing over the rain across the region by Saturday night then back to snow and snowshowers overnight. The best chance for any accumulations of snow will be again, like the last storm, over the Saginaw Valley at the onset and behind the system.


Have a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year for 2015!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian