12/20/16

The Whitest of Christmases and Other Christmases Past - Christmas 2016

The Whitest of Christmases and Other Christmases Past 
 
By: William R Deedler; Southeast Michigan Weather Historian
Date: 2PM Tuesday Dec 20th, 2016
 

Frequently during the Christmas Season, meteorologists are asked; Are we going to have white Christmas?  Generally, it is agreed among meteorologists that in order to "officially" have a white Christmas, an average of an inch of snow must cover the ground, but not necessarily have to fall on Christmas. 

At this time /20th/, though warmer temperatures, some melting and rain are possible; it is still likely a white Christmas will be enjoyed. This is likely given the existing heavy snow cover and just an inch of snow is necessary to meet the requirement Christmas morning. Still, at this time the weather looks suitable for holiday travel across Southeast Lower Michigan with the milder weather and possibly just some light rain.

Over the years, extreme Southeast Lower Michigan has averaged about a 50 percent chance for a white Christmas.  Some years it's already on the ground, some years not, some years it melts while other years it falls on the day. However, theoretically, you could actually have nothing on the ground Christmas morning and have a snowstorm dump a foot on the region during the day and still have NO official white Christmas under the standing morning rule. It works the other way too; you could have a several inches on the ground at 7am 12/25 but warmer air and/or rain melts it away by afternoon or evening and still officially have a white Christmas.

Last year's December /2015/ was a mild and snowless Christmas with a high temperatures near 50. Of course, last December was our record breaking warm El Nino December, therefore the hopes for a white Christmas were low anyway. Back on Christmas 2014, the chances for a white Christmas were very similar to 2015 with record setting low amounts of snow for the month (in the top 5 snowless). Officially on 12/25/14 at 7am; no snow was on the ground with a trace of light rain on the date. Only a TRACE of snow had fallen up to that day in December /0.1 for the entire month/.  Most areas over the remainder of Southeast Lower Michigan had a few tenths of snow Christmas eve or Christmas but with less than the amount needed and mild temperatures rising into the upper 30s to around 40...none of the area saw a white Christmas. 

Previous recent Christmases:

In 2013even with all the snowfall throughout last winter, officially on 12/25/13 at 7am Detroit Metro Airport had only a TRACE of snow on the ground. Most areas into the remainder of Southeast Lower Michigan had some residual snow and ice on the ground for a white Christmas. Back in 2012, enough snow did fall at Detroit Metro Arpt (an inch of fresh snow Christmas Eve) to make it an official white Christmas was on the ground as of 7AM. The necessary inch or more was also on the ground at both Flint and Saginaw. Ironically the day after Christmas, the best snowstorm of the winter season hit the region...a day late and several inches short for Christmas. A year earlier in 2011, it was a relatively mild Christmas with temperatures in the 40s and no snow on the ground; so no white Christmas. However back in 2010; residents across Southeast Lower Michigan did enjoy a white Christmas with generally 1” to 6” of snow across as temperatures hovered in the 20s. Then further back in 2009, much of the Detroit area south did not have a white Christmas but points north across Flint, Saginaw and the thumb region generally had a 1” to 3” snow cover. Back in 2008, we saw a “sloppy, melting white” Christmas. That white Christmas involved the melting of a heavy snow cover from past snows that accumulated throughout December. The best of the snowstorms came before Christmas on the 19th (with another, lesser intense snow falling on the doorstep of Christmas, 23rd -24th). After, however, the heavy snow cover melted in earnest as milder air overspread the region Christmas Eve right through the 26th. Christmas of 2007, saw temperatures rise into the mid 40s to mid 50s a couple of days prior to Christmas and that, combined with light rain, pretty much took care of any hopes for a white Christmas as then, like the later Christmas of 2008, the  previous heavy snow cover melted (but this time in its entirety before Christmas). Some scattered light snow did return, skirting the landscape on Christmas Eve but most areas around Southeast Lower Michigan still only had a trace of snow for Christmas. At White Lake and Saginaw, however, the official inch of snow to make it a white Christmas was barely attained in 2007.

Going back further to the Christmas of 2006; it was also mild and therefore, there was no white Christmas. In 2005, we just barely squeaked out a white Christmas (at Detroit Metro Airport, anyway) as a mild spell moved in just before Christmas along with rain, melting the snow down from 4” to 1” by Christmas morning. Originally, there had been 8” of snow on the ground on the 15th. The last really scenic (no slop)  with fresh white snow for Christmas occurred in 2004. A snowstorm brought heavy snow (ranging from 8”at Detroit to around 4” in Saginaw and Flint) on the 23rd, which left the region with a nice white cover for Christmas. It was also a cold Christmas also with highs only in the teens and overnight lows below zero. 




Looking over historical weather records of Christmases past since 1900, a wide range of weather conditions were found. While most people would like to believe that Christmas in the Detroit area should be snowy-white and picturesque, more often than not, they're not. Over the past 116 (including 1900) Christmases in Detroit, 54 (47%) have been what would be called "white" with an inch or better of snow on the ground. Keep in mind however, these records are for Detroit; farther north in Flint, the chance of a white Christmas jumps to 56 percent, while in Saginaw and the Thumb region it rises to 61 percent.

Based on the Detroit records, the Santa award for the "whitest" (most snow on the ground) and also the second snowiest Christmas (snow falling on Christmas) goes to the Christmas of 1951! Just over a foot /13 inches/ of snow was recorded on ground late Christmas day with 6.2 inches of the snow falling on Christmas. Temperatures held well below freezing (HI-26/LOW-18), so what snow did fall, remained. A close second to the "whitest" Christmas, occurred the Christmas after the big stock market crash in 1929. Eleven and a half inches of snow was measured December 25th, 1929 at Detroit but only three tenths /.3/ fell on Christmas. Recently, the Christmas of 2000 was very white indeed, but as to how much of a white Christmas (snow depths) is where the confusion came in. Let me elaborate, officially at Detroit Metro Airport, just six inches of snow was recorded on the ground at 7AM Christmas Day. However, just about anywhere west/north and in the city of Detroit itself, amounts were considerably higher with generally 8 to at least 15 inches. At the National Weather Service in White Lake, 15 inches was observed on the ground Christmas 2000 morning. No additional snow fell on Christmas Day (nor was anymore really wanted with the surplus already at hand). In any event, for Detroit and surrounding communities, the six inches at Detroit Metro Airport is the official snow depth used for the area.

The snowiest Christmas (most snow falling on Christmas), occurred in 1915 when 6.4 inches fell with a snow depth of seven inches on the ground. The timing of this snowfall was impeccable for Christmas with it actually starting Christmas Eve around sunset. Then, it continued to snow through the night into Christmas day. Actually, even more than the 6.4 inches fell from the entire storm with an additional 1.6 inches falling on Christmas Eve. This gave a snowstorm total of eight inches.  A little light rain did mix with the snow during the forenoon hours of Christmas but with a high temperature of only 33, it did little to mar the "Christmas card" scene. Speaking of "Christmas card" scenes, another heavy wet snowfall blanketed the area just after the turn of the century early on Christmas in 1901. The scene is described in the historical weather books as follows:


    "Night of the 24 - 25 cloudy; moist snow continued,
     heaviest between hours of 1:30 and 4:30 am, ended
     at 6 am. amount of precipitation .62 inches. The
     street cars ran all night to keep the tracks open.
     the snow adhered to trees etc, and made a very
     beautiful scene. Depth of snow on ground at 8 am,
     5.5 inches".


 This "Norman Rockwell Christmas scene" was further enhanced by a heavy coating of frost deposited on the buildings and windows Christmas Eve due to the moisture-laden air. But just like memories of some Christmases past, this majestic Christmas scene quickly faded (melted) during the day as temperatures climbed to 41 degrees, leaving just slush , slop and water. During the Christmases of 2002 and 2003, the weather was similar to both of the white Christmases mentioned above /1901 & 1915/. Here again in 2003, snow started falling Christmas Eve and lasted into at least part of, if not all of Christmas Day. On Christmas Day 2003, snowfalls ranged from at least an inch in the far southeast corner of Lower Michigan to as much as six inches across Detroit's northern suburbs, extending northward across Flint and Saginaw. On Christmas Day of 2002, total snowfall at Detroit Metro Airport was measured at 6.4” inches for both days (Christmas Eve and Christmas) with 3.4” of it falling on Christmas Day, itself. Across all of Southeast Lower Michigan snowfalls generally ranged from four to seven inches. A picture perfect Christmas was created both years with the freshly fallen snow. Like the Christmas snowstorms of 1901 and 1915, the snow Christmas 2002 was also somewhat heavy and wet with high temperatures in the lower 30s and lows only in the mid 20s.

Probably one of the slushiest and sloppiest Christmas Days happened in 1973. What started out as a white Christmas with a heavy 7 inch snow cover, quickly melted to a meager 2” slush mess by nightfall. To add insult to injury, it rained nearly a half an inch during the day.The wettest Christmas on record occurred in 1945 when 1.16 inches of rain fell. The rain actually began Christmas Eve as a light freezing rain and continued freezing until nearly dawn on Christmas, when the temperature pushed above freezing. Until the ice melted, a few tenths of an inch of ice coated everything by Christmas dawn. Needless to say, walking and driving early the Christmas of 1945 was treacherous but Santa was in and out of town in a flash!

Without a doubt, and still in the memories of long term inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan, is the warmest Christmas on record, the Christmas of 1982. It was as though the whole area was shipped to Florida for the holiday! The official record high at Detroit was 64 degrees, while Flint did one degree better at 65! These readings are about normal for Tallahassee, Florida! Scenes of shirt sleeved people with shorts running or riding bikes, instead of visions of sugar plums, made the Christmas of 1982 to some Michigan Christmas traditionalist, very hard to take.  This spring-like day was complete with scattered showers and, of all things, thunderstorms! Ironically, the bitterest cold Christmas came just a year later in 1983! Maybe a payback from Mother Nature for the warm weather we were treated to, the Christmas past? The temperature plummeted Christmas eve to a record low of -9 at Detroit and was accompanied by a stiff west wind averaging 25 to 30 mph, creating life threatening wind chills at times of near 40 below zero! Santa certainly brought the North Pole with him the Christmas of 1983, when he made his rounds very early that morning. In addition to the record low Christmas eve, another record low /-10/ was established during the very early morning hours of Christmas.

These Christmases past discussed are more the extreme than the norm across extreme Southeast Lower Michigan. But they do show the variable weather that can occur at Christmas (or any other time for that matter). The "normal" (or average) highs in extreme Southeast Lower Michigan Christmas Day are in the lower 30s, while lows average in the upper teens.

And now, I'd like to wish all who read this a very Merry Christmas and/or Holiday Season and the best in 2017! I plan on continuing my blog for the new year if the fates allow and look forward in reaching out to more people (and hear their comments and ideas) across the globe.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian

12/16/16

...Another Storm Takes Aim on Southeast Lower Michigan For Friday Night Into Saturday...

...Another Storm Takes Aim on Southeast Lower Michigan For Friday Night Into Saturday...Includes Epilogue...

/Issued 12/15/16 - 3PM/ for any updates see:
https://www.facebook.com/weatherhistorianSEMI7415chats/ /

(Now includes write-up on storm and snow totals)
 -12/17/16

As mentioned in my last post; we have another storm to contend with for this upcoming weekend /16th-18th/. This time the best snows will focus more north while mixed precipitation falls south.

Low pressure will approach Southeast Lower Michigan late Friday into Saturday morning, crossing the area around sunset.. As the storm approaches, snow will overspread the area from west to east overnight Friday-Saturday as warm air with moisture is pushed into the cold, Arctic air in place. As warmer pushes north Saturday; look for the snow to become mixed with then change to light freezing rain then rain/drizzle far south. Snow will continue north, see particulars below...


South Portion /Generally south of a line from Lansing - Flint - Port Huron or south of I-69/...
Snowfalls at this time look to be in the 3 - 5" range in the south of I-69 before changing over to a period of sleet and freezing rain then light rain and drizzle as temperatures rise into the lower to mid 30s. Light amounts of freezing rain are expected ( less than 1/10") before the changeover.


North Portion /Lansing - Flint - Port Huron and points north through the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region or I-69 and north/...
This area will see mainly snow with generally 4 - 6" expected. A period of mixed precipitation is possible along the southern areas of the snowfield. Light amounts of freezing rain are expected (at or below 1/10") in the southern areas. Temperature will rise then hold steady around 30 to the lower 30s.
_________________________________________________

At this time, the GFS looks most reasonable and maps below...
1ST Map for Saturday /12-18/ sunrise...
Shows the low approaching from the St Louis area on it's way into Northern Indiana.

2ND Map for Saturday midday /12-18/...
Shows the storm moving from Northern Indiana into Southeast Lower Michigan. At This time; the track should take her right across the Southeast corner of Lower Michigan near Detroit.

Much colder air will flood into the area once again overnight Saturday into Sunday.










...Another Storm Takes Aim on Southeast Lower Michigan For Friday Night Into Saturday...

Sat 12/17...Epilogue

Storm was well behaved and actually was an inch or so light on the totals, but who's complaining? Actually, a general 2-4" prediction would have sufficed. Models were off on the track which affected the end result forecast of warmer temperatures and freezing drizzle/rain going to rain south. The last runs or two did start a southward shift a bit, with last nights GFS more notable.

Snowfall Map - courtesy of the NWS DTX....

 Making weather fun while we all learn, 

Merry Christmas, Happy Holiday's & Happy New Year

Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian


12/12/16

Snowstorm Dec 11-12th , 2016 Over Southeast Lower Michigan

For shorter term forecasts see:  https://www.facebook.com/weatherhistorianSEMI7415chats/
along with write-ups here

Snowstorm Dec 11-12th, 2016

Epilogue;

While models diverged some early mid-stream they came together for the heavier scenario of snowfall which I forecasted early on the 10th. I updated by just an inch on amounts on the plus side 12/11 and very happy with the results. This storm was odd in the sense that generally these type of long duration, weak low situations may deposit 4-6" of light snow. It definitely was an over-achiever for it's dynamics and surface features but shows you what you can get with moisture rich atmosphere, good forcing (old school, overrunning) and multiple pva's. The system actually had two warm advection pva's; one early in the game along the waa and one later with low and warm front...which gave her the added boost to achieve.

- Bill Deedler

NWS Storm Report Dec 11-12th, 2016
http://www.weather.gov/dtx/WinterStormDecember11-12


Reported Snowfalls over Southeast Lower Michigan


NWS Storm Report Dec 11-12th, 2016
http://www.weather.gov/dtx/WinterStormDecember11-12
Reported Snowfalls over Southeast Lower Michigan


 


Making weather fun while we all learn, 

Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian

12/2/16

Another Beautiful, Long Lasting Autumn Makes it Two for Two! Colder Blast Set for Next Week!


Temperatures Autumn 2016

No, it wasn't your imagination - the recent fall was again very nice and one of the warmest across Southeast Lower Michigan. On the whole, Temperatures averaged in the mid 50s this past fall when taking the highs and lows into account across all of Southeast Lower Michigan. Normally, autumns do tend to lean toward the nicer side for weather in these parts - but not this nice nor long lasting! On average; temperatures average around the 50 degree mark in a normal fall but this fall was anything but normal. Temperatures averaged close to 4 1/2 degrees above normal departure /55.4 +4.6/ for all of Southeast Lower Michigan this past fall. This was warm enough to put the region in the top five warmest falls on record at all three cities; Detroit, Flint and Saginaw! That's pretty impressive when you consider this is looking back around a century or more.

And what's more; note I said "again" in the first line. What's even more extraordinary is that this is the second fall in a row that was this nice and warm. Last fall in 2015; temperatures across Southeast Lower Michigan averaged even a bit warmer at 55.9 as opposed to this fall's 55.4! Both Flint and Saginaw averaged slightly warmer last fall while Detroit had its warmer autumn this fall.

Bringing it home; the last time a fall was this warm or warmer was just last fall; a rare feat in itself as there have never been two falls in a row that were this warm over the region. In fact, it's very rare to find any two falls in a row that made even the top 20 warmest listing, let alone top five. There were only two other "back-back" falls at Flint; 1946 /9th/ & 1947 /11th/ and Saginaw with 1930 /19th/ and 1931 /1st/. Detroit had no other back-back warmest falls in the top 20.

Looking at the particular temperature ranking statistics from the last two falls and top 20 warmest


Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
 1   46.8 1880   58.4 193146.8 1993  56.5 1931  45.5 1917  57.3 1931
2 46.9 1875 57.6 1881 46.9 1976 55.9 2015 46.2 1972 55.3 2015
3 47.6 1976 57.3 1963 47.0 1981 54.7 1934 46.4 1925 55.0 2016
4 48.0 1876 56.9 2016 47.0 1980 54.2 2016 46.5 1943 54.0 1971
5 48.1 1917 56.6 2015 47.4 1967 53.71971 46.8 1981  53.8 1927
6 48.8 1967  55.8   1946  47.6   1995 53.5  1938 46.8 1976 53.7 1963
7 48.8 1887 55.8 1927 47.8 1997 53.5 1963 46.8 1951 53.2 1998
8 49.1 1980 55.6 2005 47.8 1925 53.5 1927 47.2 1993 52.8 2005
9 49.2 1972 55.5 1961 47.9 1966 53.1 1946 47.2 1980 52.6 2007
10 49.2 1896 55.3 2007 47.9 1943 52.9 2007 47.3 1926 52.6 1920
11 49.4 1907 55.3 1953 48.0 1972 52.9 1947 47.7 1977 52.5 1961
12 49.5 1925 55.3 1941 48.0 1951 52.8 2005 47.8 1992 52.3 1994
13 49.5 1888 55.2 1900 48.1 1996 52.8 1998 48.0 1995 52.2 1975
14 49.7 1974 55.1 1998 48.2 1937 52.7 1975 48.0 1988 52.2 2011
15 49.7 1937 55.1 2011 48.3 1957 52.7 1973 48.1 1952 52.2 1973
16 49.8 1981 55.1 1994 48.5 2006 52.4 1983 48.2 1989 52.2 1946
17 49.9 1895 54.8 1922 48.5 1959 52.4 1961 48.2 1986 52.1 1941
18 50.0 1889 54.8 1920 48.7 1952 52.4 2011 48.2 1959 52.1 1970
19 50.1 1996 54.6 2004 48.8 1992 52.4 1941 48.3 1991 52.1 1930
20 50.1 1943 54.6 1882 48.8 1962 52.3 1953 48.4 1967 52.0 1934
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to November 1874.
** Flint Bishop temperature records date back to January 1921.
*** Saginaw Area temperature records date back to January 1912.

Rainfall Autumn 2016

Rainfall averaged above normal /11.36", +2.78"/ around the Detroit area but that was exclusively due to a wet September with over six inches of rain. Near normal rain was registered at Flint /9.68", +0.71"/ and below average in the Saginaw Valley /7.45",-1.71'/. This coming after a rather dry summer with a pick up in rainfall later in the summer into the early fall.

Looking ahead for the first half of December 

The first several days of December look to be about average with a plunge into colder, below normal temperatures the middle of next week /6-7th/. This will be the coldest air of the season being quite abrupt and noticeable considering the past fall. Look for temperatures to average near to slightly above normal through Tuesday with the decidedly colder weather, thereafter. Average highs for the first week of December are in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows in the mid 20s across all Southeast Lower Michigan..

After the Polar front moves through by Wednesday; highs will drop off in the upper 20s to lower 30s with lows into the teens to lower 20s much of the remainder of the week. Best chances for precipitation will be snow or rain/snow on Sunday-Sunday night and rain to snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday. Those traveling near and downwind of the Great Lakes should keep abreast for  Lake effect snow forecasts mid-week on, next week.

 

 Making weather fun while we all learn, 

Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian