/Issued 12/15/16 - 3PM/ for any updates see:
https://www.facebook.com/weatherhistorianSEMI7415chats/ /
(Now includes write-up on storm and snow totals)
-12/17/16
As mentioned in my last post; we have another storm to contend with for this upcoming weekend /16th-18th/. This time the best snows will focus more north while mixed precipitation falls south.
Low pressure will approach Southeast Lower Michigan late Friday into Saturday morning, crossing the area around sunset.. As the storm approaches, snow will overspread the area from west to east overnight Friday-Saturday as warm air with moisture is pushed into the cold, Arctic air in place. As warmer pushes north Saturday; look for the snow to become mixed with then change to light freezing rain then rain/drizzle far south. Snow will continue north, see particulars below...
South Portion /Generally south of a line from Lansing - Flint - Port Huron or south of I-69/...
Snowfalls at this time look to be in the 3 - 5" range in the south of I-69 before changing over to a period of sleet and freezing rain then light rain and drizzle as temperatures rise into the lower to mid 30s. Light amounts of freezing rain are expected ( less than 1/10") before the changeover.
North Portion /Lansing - Flint - Port Huron and points north through the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region or I-69 and north/...
This area will see mainly snow with generally 4 - 6" expected. A period of mixed precipitation is possible along the southern areas of the snowfield. Light amounts of freezing rain are expected (at or below 1/10") in the southern areas. Temperature will rise then hold steady around 30 to the lower 30s.
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At this time, the GFS looks most reasonable and maps below...
1ST Map for Saturday /12-18/ sunrise...
Shows the low approaching from the St Louis area on it's way into Northern Indiana.
2ND Map for Saturday midday /12-18/...
Shows the storm moving from Northern Indiana into Southeast Lower Michigan. At This time; the track should take her right across the Southeast corner of Lower Michigan near Detroit.
Much colder air will flood into the area once again overnight Saturday into Sunday.
...Another Storm Takes Aim on Southeast Lower Michigan For Friday Night Into Saturday...
Sat 12/17...Epilogue
Storm was well behaved and actually was an inch or so light on the totals, but who's complaining? Actually, a general 2-4" prediction would have sufficed. Models were off on the track which affected the end result forecast of warmer temperatures and freezing drizzle/rain going to rain south. The last runs or two did start a southward shift a bit, with last nights GFS more notable.
Snowfall Map - courtesy of the NWS DTX....
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