11/22/12

Though a Record or Near Record Warm Thanksgiving Today; Take a Look at a Record Cold Wave That Engulfed The Region at This Time and Refuses to Budge From The Record Books Back in 1880!

Record November Cold Wave Holds Steadfast For Well Over a Century
                      
Nothing in Southeast Michigan ’s record books has anything close to the record cold wave that occurred so early in the cold season than way back in the late 19th century in November 1880, or 132 years ago! The bitter cold surges blasted Southeast Lower Michigan from the 18th to the 23rd from the Arctic region and engulfed much of the country. The Arctic chill came down in the form of two impressively strong Arctic high pressure systems (see maps below) for mid winter, let alone mid November. 
 
Below is the record chart for that period that contains both the record low maximums and record lows that occurred during the November cold wave which left six days of records that have not been touched since! The three degree reading on the 21st and zero on the 22nd have yet to be superseded by colder temperatures in the entire month of November. A zero (or below) record low does not appear in Detroit ’s record lows for another 10 days when a -2 was recorded on December 2nd, 1976!    

  

Again, not only is the cold impressive but that both the record low maximums and the record lows have not been breached since this cold wave. The six days of record breaking cold remains intact since 1880!  So what caused this bone-chilling cold so early in the season, what did the weather maps (or best representation of) look like so far back? Let’s take a look at copies of the archaic weather map records from Nov 18-23, 1880 which shows the couple of mammoth Arctic high pressure systems that affected much of the during the period.  





As of 7AM - Thu  Nov 18th  Note the first big chunk of cold dense air is well reflected by the exceptionally high pressure for November (not to mention over the southern states) in eastern Oklahoma of 30.78" /1042.MB/  (just at the bottom edge of our map).  This massive Arctic high made its way south out of the Northern Plains and as a result, temperatures across much of the region were in the single digits and teens.



As of 11PM - Nov 19th   By late Friday night, a new surge of Arctic air is beginning to show its face here as a new low pressure trough enters the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Note, temperatures haven’t had a chance to recover much from the first bitter cold blast!

 

As of 11PM - Nov 20th   The second surge of fresh Arctic air continues advancing across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as general high pressure holds over the southern states.



As of 11PM - Nov 21st   A second, duplicate strong high pressure appears on our map, once again by way of the Northern Plains and expands south and east into into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Low pressure troughing holds sway over the relatively warmer waters of the Great Lakes (estimates of water temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s). Temperatures have plummeted below zero already in the Upper Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night.



 As of 11PM - Nov 22nd   A huge bitter cold high pressure lies spralled across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes with a central pressure of 30.85" /1045 MB/! The public continues to be greated by record cold as the Thanksgiving work week commenced across the nation. The 30.85" was a record high pressure at the time (and may be yet) for Cincinnati, Ohio. Besides our own,  numerous other record lows were attained with the passage of these Arctic highs.



As of 11PM - Nov 23rd  The large high pressure moves ever so slowly east with the central high pressure now over the mid Atlantic States.

Evidently this was not the first notable November cold snap that engulfed the region so early in the weather record days. The following was taken from the 1880 Monthly Weather Review:  
"The passage of of this area was marked by minimum temperatures for the Lakes region, the Atlantic States,  the Ohio, Upper Mississippi and Lower Missouri valleys. They occurred from seven to eight days earlier in the month than the remarkably low temperatures of 1875. The most notable temperatures observed at the Signal Service Stations were Washington, 12.5;  Philadelphia, 10;  St. Louis and Louisville, 8;  Pittsburgh, 4;  Buffalo, 3;  Chicago, 1;  Erie, Detroit, Sandusky, Grand Haven and Des Moines, 0;  Champaign, -3;  Alpena, -4;  Columbus, Indianapolis, Keokuk and Milwaukee, -5;  Port Huron, -6;  Marquette, -9."
 
As mentioned, all the Detroit records remain intact 132 years later in 2012 and I wonder how many others are still around at other offices? 

 Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

11/25/2012 Update - First Measurable Snow Of The Season Possible Tuesday After Flirting With Record Territory For Warm Thanksgivings!

11/25/2012-Quick Update on snow potential Tuesday;

Snow lovers; I'm sorry to say the system that had the potential to bring us snow will stay well south and east of Southeast Michigan. The main reason is energy from the northern stream is now unanimously projected to be flatter and weaker with the better sampling of the atmosphere over the Pacific and northern Canada the past couple days. What phasing of the jet streams that does occur will be weaker and occur further south and east of our region. In fact; all projections the next week or so are rather benign and somewhat boring with no notable storms expected to affect the region.
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Original 11/22/2012

On this beautiful, sun filled warm Thanksgiving Day...the last thing "some" people want to hear about is snow. ;-)  As temperatures make a run into the lower to possibly mid 60s; keep in mind the record high for the 22nd at Detroit is 69 way back in 1913! However...if you just look at all previous Thanksgiving Days (and granted the date moves around because of the nature of the Turkey beast); the record high for Detroit for all Thanksgivings is 65 set back on 11/26/1986. At Flint the record warmest Thanksgiving is 61 on 11/30/1933; while in Saginaw, the warmest Thanksgiving was back on 11/26/1908 and again on the same date; 11/26 but in 1914 when both Thanksgivings the mercury rose to 64. There is the chance that one or all will challenge their respective warmest Turkey Day temperature this afternoon; particularly Flint. Again; this would NOT be the record for the date (Detroit-69, Flint-65, Saginaw 66); though Flint and Saginaw may come close to those records too. For other fun filled facts for Thanksgiving Days; visit the NWS in White Lake.

Ok back to next week;
As mentioned at the end of my Winter Outlook; something may be brewing for the last week of November. Well that depends on what extended model you believe. Our GFS model has been intimating that a low pressure system will form over the Midwest Monday night and track northeast through the northern Ohio Valley Tuesday. This puts Southeast Lower Michigan on the north side of the system in the colder air and the likelihood for out first general snow. Albeit; scatted locations may have seen a couple tenths due to snow showers this cold season, most have not. Since the models have been all over the board with the system's track and depth; I'm leery of calling for any "certainty" on this system at this time. Besides that; it's still relatively early in the season and with temperatures in the 30s, even under the best scenario (for snow) with this system; an inch or two on grassy surfaces would suffice. I say "best" because there is the risk she'll miss us all together and track far enough south and we get nothing or just a little melting snow or rain/snow. Here's the latest projection for the system from the GFS that far out:



In any event; I'll update on the "possible" system as the time approaches. Have a fun and safe Thanksgiving on this beautiful warm day!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian