145 pm -Thu 1/11/24- Latest on the winter storm Friday into the weekend with selected guidance and thoughts on it.
Actually the majority of models/guidance continue to be in recent agreement at this stage (a day to two day before the storm) and continue to focus the storm track /a quickly moving but deep, intense deep low (970's mb)/ across southern lower Michigan with south-central emphasized.
Snowstorm totals /least with most rain and warmth/ at 1"- 3" over the southeast corner of Lower Michigan and 3" - 5" with less rain/warmth further out west - north toward Ann Arbor - far NW/N burbs of Detroit to Pontiac to Port Huron for an estimate. Then; highest 5" - 8" possible west and north of a line from Howell - Flint - Thumb Region.
Snow is expected to move in from the west and south on Fri afternoon-Fri eve as easterly increase winds 15 - 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph shift southeast to south winds Fri night. Behind the storm; snow showers with winds shifting -after a lull in snow and wind- and increasing to southwest to west 20 to 30 mph occasional gusts into the 40s. Some power outage will be possible with the heavy wet snow and/or strong winds. Temps will quickly drop from the lower 30s to lower 40s Fri night...falling into the 20s and then teens as the storm pulls away Sat-Sun creating dangerous wind chills.
Differences/similarities in the guidance compared to the last storm; a similar track but a more impactful storm, slightly colder air mass column before the warmer air pushes in east of the low over Southeast Michigan Fri eve and much colder air blasting in behind the storm Sat-Sun.
January 12-13, 2024 Winter Storm Results
https://www.weather.gov/dtx/2024-01-12-Winter-Storm
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
