Cool & Dry May Reflective of the Upcoming Summer's Pattern? ~ Summer 2026 Outlook For Southeast Lower Michigan

In a nutshell: All main guidance, El Nino Analogues and past El Nino sequencing with timing strongly suggest a normal to cooler summer accompanied by normal to drier rainfall summer. 

Temperatures:  

Look for temperatures to average from two degrees below normal (cooler summer) to one and a half degrees above (basically a normal summer). Analogues are tilted too much toward below normal temperatures with each month coming in at about two degrees below normal. Interesting noted was how each of the monthly average in the Summer Analogues came in at just over two degrees below normal (suggesting no preference between the months). That would intimate each summer month would average below normal -roughly by a degree or two.

Late Spring of 2026 appeared to be slyly suggesting cooler summer possibilities by recent weather patterns across the Great Lakes in May /Detroit -1.5F/ with average to cool weather dominating at the surface and aloft. Developing El Nino Summer Analogues are reflective of mainly normal to below normal temperatures  Add to that,  some of recent Summer Climate Model Guidance are also suggesting a cooler than average summer.

Rainfall:

Past analogues suggest normal to below normal rain similar to model guidance. Unfortunately; summer season by nature is spotty with its feast or famine regiment by location.  

Past Winter 

Briefly looking back at our previous winter, the Winter of 2025-26 analogues & guidance also painted a colder than normal winter but with below normal snowfall. Certainly not a severe winter with above normal snow but prevailing below normal temperatures winter. Overall the forecast called for temperatures to average 1-3 degrees below normal and variable snowfall with a decided preference for below normal - unlike the northern Great Lakes which were clobbered with snow and rain. See; Winter 2025-26 in Southeast Michigan; Will it be as Rough as Many Say it Will? 

As mentioned; looking ahead most guidance along with analogues suggests a normal to cool summer and in keeping with the observed general weather patterns in the past two seasons. In addition; normal to below normal precipitation showed a dominance.   

Researching back to similar strongly building El Nino's places 1982 & 2015 very close to the SOI's thus far in 2026.  Other closely aligning SOI's occurred in 1991. The well remembered El Nino of 1997 was ahead of this years SOI and actually started in early 1997.  

 

 

Current SOI chart ending May 20th 2026 is just above. As can be seen by similar SOI traces above, the closest pattern for SOI anyway is for the Spring periods with other strong El Nino's above and compared. 

Years that were selected with a quickly building El Nino, summer into fall/winter are a good set of strongly developing El Nino's. 

1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, 2009, 2015 = 8 Analogues with red highlighted years the closest to the SOI timing (1982, 1991 & 2015) and 2009 has a similar pattern weather-wise spring into summer. The El Nino of 2009 came later in the year and was a moderate El Nino.

BUILDING EL NINO'S ~ SUMMER 2026 ANALOGUES 

DETROIT	JUN	JUL	AUG	SUM AVE
1957	68.7	72.8	70.2	70.6
1965	67.8	70.4	70.0	69.4
1972	64.2	71.2	69.1	68.2
1982	64.2	72.4	67.7	68.1
1991	72.4	74.9	73.4	73.6
1997	69.5	72.2	68.1	69.9
2009	67.8	68.9	71.2	69.3
2015	68.8	72.9	71.8	71.2
Ave	67.9	72.0	70.2	70.0
Norm	70.0	74.1	72.3	72.1
Depart	-2.1	-2.1	-2.1	-0.8
DETROIT	JUN	JUL	AUG	SUM AVE
1957	3.23	5.98	1.99	11.20
1965	2.11	2.99	3.24	8.34
1972	3.30	2.21	3.07	8.58
1982	4.11	4.78	0.72	9.61
1991	1.89	1.23	4.31	7.43
1997	3.17	2.62	3.22	9.01
2009	5.27	2.56	2.76	10.59
2015	5.32	1.76	3.16	10.24
Ave	3.55	3.02	2.81	9.38
Norm	3.26	3.51	3.26	10.03
Depart	-0.29	-0.49	-0.45	-0.65

 

 

The varying upper flow already evident in the last several weeks has been developing the summer ridge over the central part of of the US. A projected upper air pattern was last seen in 2009, 2015 and the latest weaker El Nino but developed later in 2023. That summer too resulted cooler than normal -but was  a wet summer. A notable blocking high pressure is establishing itself over the middle part of the country and is expected to oscillate from the Mountain West to the Eastern US. The last but not least is the upper air pattern system is the semi-permanent Upper Low over Southeast Canada - certainly capable of occasionally delivering cool Canadian air in the region. These main upper wind players will be the main drivers this summer. 

 

A relatively glaring map of the upper air CanSIPS 850 mb summer pattern is suggesting cooler than average 850 temps over a large part of the the US - basically over two-thirds of the US. Coolest projections are over the central and southern Midwest/Plains into the Ohio Valley relative to average. The newer guidance will come in early June. Besides the latest 850 MB temperature projected on CanSIPS below; the Euro height projections below the 850 map; reflects the strong Polar lower heights reflecting the cooler player over Southeast Canada. 

 

 Recent Developments;

The recent dry spell that developed this May into June comes at a time which periods of rain for the growing season is needed. With just 2.20" of rain in May /-1.18"/ we are starting out drier in the surface moisture at 2"-4". Luckily; the heaviest rains fell in mid May but with drying above ground since, we need rain. That being said; the majority of latest models bring the increasing chances of rain later Friday into the weekend as temperatures and moisture increase.

Finally: 

Therefore; the combination of upper ridging over the west into central US oscillating occasionally east  through the summer. This; in conjunction with the semi-permanent  Polar upper low positioning in southeastern Canada should temper long standing heatwaves leading to a more comfortable summer. 

Try to enjoy the summer whatever the weather.

December 2025 Track Record & Model Projections for the Rest of the Cold Period ~January - March 2026

The first month of my Winter Outlook for December 2025 verified very well overall with the well below normal temperatures and normal snowfall /within 5.0"/. By far the strongest signal for the beginning of winter on the analogues was a cold December. Actually; the below normal temperatures carried into December from a colder ending to November also a dominant feature in the forecast. December 2025 temperature average of 27.7 degrees averaged -3.6 below normal. Even though a colder than average December did occur; the temperature roller coaster ride didn't disappoint either with quite a variability in temperatures.  Temperatures ranged from 61 /record 64/ just occurred a few days back on the 28th late at night and 59 degrees just after midnight on the 29th (also two 53's on the 18th/23rd). On the cold side; a 5 degree low on the 5th & 6 degrees on the 14th and 7 on the 8th. All the analogue temperatures averaged 28.5 compared to the 27.7 degrees for this Decembers with 1981-82 the closest temperature-wise with only one tenth different from this December's 27.7 degrees. Snowfall was shy /11.6"/ however of the snowfall back then with 17.3".  

While on snowfall; December's analogue snowfall average wasn't bad either with 9.5" projected compared to the 11.6" that fell. Season 2025-26 snowfall total is running above normal this far /+6.0"/ thru December with 16.8" of the 10.8" average falling.

 

 

 

Model Performance

First off the best model for 500 MB troughing and Surface temperatures thus far; CANSIPS. The model actually closely pegged for temperatures for December and matched Analogues for Southeast Mich. Precipitation projection wasn't bad either with normal to slightly below. Precipitation for December was 2.12" just a bit below the norm of 2.25".

December 500 MB 2025 /Made Dec 1 2025/

December Surface Temps Departure /Made Dec 1 2025/

 

 

December Surface Pcpn Departure /Made Dec 1 2025/

For the rest of the cold season; January Analogues and CANSIPS Model go with another below normal month for temperatures and normal month for snowfall for analogues and above precipitation for CANSIPS.  I'd be surprised if temperature departures are as cold for January as the analogues averaged (colder than December) and CANSIPS.  Model projection is also colder or below normal temperatures. Again, stated many times - timing of the analogue data is important.  Analogues and CANSIPS agreed the first half of the winter would be most affected by more or less - sustained cold. Since late November; even with far ranging temperatures (stated above) - temperatures still averaged several degrees below normal.  Even though I surmise we've seen the most sustained cold in monthly departures and still have notable cold- the bigger question is what about snow? 

 

That was not so clear-cut in analogues nor models. It seems every time we do see a wet, strong system - it's mainly been rain. The storm track into the western Lakes (also drawn on Winter Outlook prevailing storm tracks map) has been dominant, second only to Clippers. Looking at the heavy snows and wind with these storms up north clearly shows this. The Ohio Valley storms and East Coaster have only intermittently showed face. This has a strong correlation to the dominant upper wind jets over the country from the Arctic and Pacific. A shift to the west/south for the jets and slightly further east with phasing would help bring those tracks more active (though East Coast storms have picked up a bit). We'll see....

  

January 500 MB Forecast /Made Dec 1 2025/

January Surface Temps Departure /Made Dec 1 2025/ 

 

January Surface Pcpn Departure /Made Dec 1 2025/  

 

February 500 MB Forecast /Made Dec 1 2025/

February Surface Pcpn Forecast /Made Dec 1 2025  

March 500 MB Forecast /Made Dec 1 2025/

 

  March Surface Pcpn Forecast /Made Dec 1 2025  
 

More updates when deemed applicable!

Making weather fun while we all learn,

Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistoria

The Whitest of Christmases and Other Christmases Past and Chances for a White Christmas - 2025

Frequently during the Christmas Season, meteorologists are asked; Are we going to have white Christmas?  Generally, it is agreed among meteorologists that in order to "officially" have a white Christmas, an average of an inch of snow must cover the ground Christmas morning /7AM/, but not necessarily have to fall on Christmas. 

Of course when we have a cold December with snow on the ground for weeks as in this year; the mildest weather arrives in time for Christmas week and thus; melts much of the snow when it's generally more appreciated. In addition; December 2025 contained frequent patchy light snows followed by partial or total melting. Thus; having a inch of snow on Christmas morning becomes even more of a crap-shoot. 

At this time /Wednesday 12 Noon/ December 24th 2025; chances of a white Christmas across all of Southeast Lower Michigan, is pretty much a bust; especially with the recent unseasonably mild weather.

Last Christmas of 2024; most areas across extreme Southeast Lower Michigan (across much of Metro Detroit south to the Ohio Border) did not have a white Christmas per se' with a trace or nothing. Further west and northwest across Ann Arbor, Milford, Howell maybe around an inch or so - therefore it was definitely location. Further north over Flint into the Saginaw Valley across into the Thumb Region Mainly around I-69 and north-northeast a white Christmas was seen. 

Christmas of 2023 was a total waste as far as white Christmas with unseasonably mild weather with temperatures in the 50s!

 

Christmas 2022; a cold blast accompanied by several inches of snow fell a few days before and on Christmas across Southeast Lower Michigan making for a white Christmas but with brutally cold wind chills well below zero.

  

On Christmas /2021/ we ended up with no white Christmas. Christmas 2020; we lucked out with generally an inch or two of snow falling over the region on Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. A nice picture-perfect light snow cover.

 

Christmas /2019/ no white Christmas was to be had - and also back in 2018; around Metro Detroit there was no white Christmas. In fact; temperatures pushed up into the 40s and 50s in the few days following Christmas. Further north from the Flint area into the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region however; a inch or two remained on the ground for a white Christmas across that region.

Over the years, extreme Southeast Lower Michigan has averaged just under a 50 percent chance for a white Christmas.  Some years it's already on the ground, some years not, some years it melts while other years it falls on the day. However, theoretically, you could actually have nothing on the ground Christmas morning and have a snowstorm dump a foot on the region during the day and still have NO official white Christmas under the standing morning rule. It works the other way too; you could have a several inches on the ground at 7am 12/25 but warmer air and/or rain melts it away by afternoon or evening and still officially have a white Christmas.

Several years ago /2017/; an unexpected white Christmas was had in spades as low pressure system overachieved; developing robustly over the southern Great Lake/northern Ohio Valley. The system developed into a notable little snowstorm falling mainly on Christmas Eve over the southeast area as seen in this map, bringing snow for a picturesque, classic Christmas scene. The only negative - and a notable one - was the lousy driving conditions Christmas Eve into early Christmas Day but with improving conditions later for Christmas dinnertime.

For more on the system from the NWS; see here.

In 2016; even with mild weather with temperatures in the 30s; Southeast Lower Michigan was able to hold on to a white Christmas as the snow (generally 2-5") slowly melted. In fact; the day after Christmas, warm air surged into the region and pushed temperatures into mainly the 50s and took care of any remaining snow! Back in December /2015/; it was a mild and snowless Christmas with a high temperatures near 50. Of course, the year before, /2014/ contained our record breaking warm El Nino December, therefore the hopes for a white Christmas were low anyway. Back on Christmas 2014, the chances for a white Christmas were very similar to 2015 with record setting low amounts of snow for the month (in the top 5 snowless). Officially on 12/25/14 at 7am; no snow was on the ground with a trace of light rain on the date. Only a TRACE of snow had fallen up to that day in December /0.1 for the entire month/.  Most areas over the remainder of Southeast Lower Michigan had a few tenths of snow Christmas eve or Christmas but with less than the amount needed and mild temperatures rising into the upper 30s to around 40...none of the area saw a white Christmas.

More Previous Christmases back to 2004:

In 2013;  even with all the snowfall throughout last winter, officially on 12/25/13 at 7am Detroit Metro Airport had only a TRACE of snow on the ground. Most areas into the remainder of Southeast Lower Michigan had some residual snow and ice on the ground for a white Christmas. Back in 2012, enough snow did fall at Detroit Metro Arpt (an inch of fresh snow Christmas Eve) to make it an official white Christmas was on the ground as of 7AM. The necessary inch or more was also on the ground at both Flint and Saginaw. Ironically the day after Christmas, the best snowstorm of the winter season hit the region...a day late and several inches short for Christmas. A year earlier in 2011, it was a relatively mild Christmas with temperatures in the 40s and no snow on the ground; so no white Christmas. However back in 2010; residents across Southeast Lower Michigan did enjoy a white Christmas with generally 1” to 6” of snow across as temperatures hovered in the 20s. Then further back in 2009, much of the Detroit area south did not have a white Christmas but points north across Flint, Saginaw and the thumb region generally had a 1” to 3” snow cover. Back in 2008, we saw a “sloppy, melting white” Christmas. That white Christmas involved the melting of a heavy snow cover from past snows that accumulated throughout December. The best of the snowstorms came before Christmas on the 19^th (with another, lesser intense snow falling on the doorstep of Christmas, 23^rd -24^th). After, however, the heavy snow cover melted in earnest as milder air overspread the region Christmas Eve right through the 26th. Christmas of 2007, saw temperatures rise into the mid 40s to mid 50s a couple of days prior to Christmas and that, combined with light rain, pretty much took care of any hopes for a white Christmas as then, like the later Christmas of 2008, the  previous heavy snow cover melted (but this time in its entirety before Christmas). Some scattered light snow did return, skirting the landscape on Christmas Eve but most areas around Southeast Lower Michigan still only had a trace of snow for Christmas. At White Lake and Saginaw, however, the official inch of snow to make it a white Christmas was barely attained in 2007.

Going back further to the Christmas of 2006; it was also mild and therefore, there was no white Christmas. In 2005, we just barely squeaked out a white Christmas (at Detroit Metro Airport, anyway) as a mild spell moved in just before Christmas along with rain, melting the snow down from 4” to 1” by Christmas morning. Originally, there had been 8” of snow on the ground on the 15^th. The last really scenic (no slop)  with fresh white snow for Christmas occurred in 2004. A snowstorm brought heavy snow (ranging from 8”at Detroit to around 4” in Saginaw and Flint) on the 23^rd, which left the region with a nice white cover for Christmas. It was also a cold Christmas also with highs only in the teens and overnight lows below zero. 

Looking over historical weather records of Christmases past since 1900, a wide range of weather conditions were found. While most people would like to believe that Christmas in the Detroit area should be snowy-white and picturesque, more often than not, they're not. Over the past 124 (including 1900) Christmases in Detroit, 58 (or 47%) have been what would be called "white" with an inch or better of snow on the ground. Keep in mind however, these records are for Detroit; farther north in Flint, the chance of a white Christmas jumps to 56 percent, while in Saginaw and the Thumb region it rises to 61 percent. However; the past 30 year normals /1991-2020/ the shorter time-frame indicates the chance of a white Christmas at Detroit has dropped to just 35%; whereas around Flint the past 30 year norm puts it at basically a 50/50 chance (or exactly 51%). In the Saginaw region; the probability of a white Christmas has dropped to 46%.

Way back on the Christmas of 2000 was very white indeed, but as to how much of a white Christmas (snow depths) is where the confusion came in. Let me elaborate, officially at Detroit Metro Airport, just six inches of snow was recorded on the ground at 7AM Christmas Day. However, just about anywhere west/north and in the city of Detroit itself, amounts were considerably higher with generally 8 to at least 15 inches. At the National Weather Service in White Lake, 15 inches was observed on the ground Christmas 2000 morning. No additional snow fell on Christmas Day (nor was anymore really wanted with the surplus already at hand). In any event, for Detroit and surrounding communities, the six inches at Detroit Metro Airport is the official snow depth used for the area.

The snowiest Christmas (most snow falling on Christmas), occurred in 1915 when 6.4 inches fell with a snow depth of seven inches on the ground. The timing of this snowfall was impeccable for Christmas with it actually starting Christmas Eve around sunset. Then, it continued to snow through the night into Christmas day. Actually, even more than the 6.4 inches fell from the entire storm with an additional 1.6 inches falling on Christmas Eve. This gave a snowstorm total of eight inches.  A little light rain did mix with the snow during the forenoon hours of Christmas but with a high temperature of only 33, it did little to mar the "Christmas card" scene. Speaking of "Christmas card" scenes, another heavy wet snowfall blanketed the area just after the turn of the century early on Christmas in 1901. The scene is described in the historical weather books as follows:

    "Night of the 24 - 25 cloudy; moist snow continued,

     heaviest between hours of 1:30 and 4:30 am, ended

     at 6 am. amount of precipitation .62 inches. The

     street cars ran all night to keep the tracks open.

     the snow adhered to trees etc, and made a very

     beautiful scene. Depth of snow on ground at 8 am,

     5.5 inches".

 This "Norman Rockwell Christmas scene" was further enhanced by a heavy coating of frost deposited on the buildings and windows Christmas Eve due to the moisture-laden air. But just like memories of some Christmases past, this majestic Christmas scene quickly faded (melted) during the day as temperatures climbed to 41 degrees, leaving just slush , slop and water. During the Christmases of 2002 and 2003, the weather was similar to both of the white Christmases mentioned above /1901 & 1915/. Here again in 2003, snow started falling Christmas Eve and lasted into at least part of, if not all of Christmas Day. On Christmas Day 2003, snowfalls ranged from at least an inch in the far southeast corner of Lower Michigan to as much as six inches across Detroit's northern suburbs, extending northward across Flint and Saginaw. On Christmas Day of 2002, total snowfall at Detroit Metro Airport was measured at 6.4” inches for both days (Christmas Eve and Christmas) with 3.4” of it falling on Christmas Day, itself. Across all of Southeast Lower Michigan snowfalls generally ranged from four to seven inches. A picture perfect Christmas was created both years with the freshly fallen snow. Like the Christmas snowstorms of 1901 and 1915, the snow Christmas 2002 was also somewhat heavy and wet with high temperatures in the lower 30s and lows only in the mid 20s.

Probably one of the slushiest and sloppiest Christmas Days happened in 1973. What started out as a white Christmas with a heavy 7 inch snow cover, quickly melted to a meager 2” slush mess by nightfall. To add insult to injury, it rained nearly a half an inch during the day.The wettest Christmas on record occurred in 1945 when 1.16 inches of rain fell. The rain actually began Christmas Eve as a light freezing rain and continued freezing until nearly dawn on Christmas, when the temperature pushed above freezing. Until the ice melted, a few tenths of an inch of ice coated everything by Christmas dawn. Needless to say, walking and driving early the Christmas of 1945 was treacherous but Santa was in and out of town in a flash!

Without a doubt, and still in the memories of long term inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan, is the warmest Christmas on record, the Christmas of 1982. It was as though the whole area was shipped to Florida for the holiday! The official record high at Detroit was 64 degrees, while Flint did one degree better at 65! These readings are about normal for Tallahassee, Florida! Scenes of shirt sleeved people with shorts running or riding bikes, instead of visions of sugar plums, made the Christmas of 1982 to some Michigan Christmas traditionalist, very hard to take.  This spring-like day was complete with scattered showers and, of all things, thunderstorms! Ironically, the bitterest cold Christmas came just a year later in 1983! Maybe a payback from Mother Nature for the warm weather we were treated to, the Christmas past? The temperature plummeted Christmas eve to a record low of -9 at Detroit and was accompanied by a stiff west wind averaging 25 to 30 mph, creating life threatening wind chills at times of near 40 below zero! Santa certainly brought the North Pole with him the Christmas of 1983, when he made his rounds very early that morning. In addition to the record low Christmas eve, another record low /-10/ was established during the very early morning hours of Christmas.

These Christmases past discussed are more the extreme than the norm across extreme Southeast Lower Michigan. But they do show the variable weather that can occur at Christmas (or any other time for that matter). The "normal" (or average) highs in extreme Southeast Lower Michigan Christmas Day are in the lower 30s, while lows average in the upper teens.

And now, I'd like to wish all who read this a very Merry Christmas and/or Holiday Season and the best in 2026!  I plan on continuing my blog occasionally for the new year if the fates allow and look forward in reaching out to more people (and hear their comments and ideas) across the globe.

Making weather fun while we all learn,

Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian