The way things are going, pretty soon the Winter of 2011-12 will become to be known as the year without a winter. A bit exaggerated I know but the winter thus far has not only been exceptionally mild, it's been exceptionally BORING! In the first five weeks of "winter", temperatures across Southeast Michigan have averaged in the lower to mid 30s...not the highs...the averages or means. Our normal highs this time of year are generally in the lower 30s, so this is pretty much where our temperature averages have been. In the past five weeks, the high temperatures across the region have averaged around 40 degrees...give or take a degree. So, if you've thought the weather has been behaving and feeling like a "perpetual late fall", then you are right on the money. Average high temperatures across Southeast Lower Michigan late fall, say around Thanksgiving, are generally in the lower 40s.
So what gives? Did mother nature suddenly become senile lately and just forget what season we are supposed to be in? Did she fail to read the Winter Outlook and behave accordingly? You'd think so ;-). But seriously, the reasons I discussed on why we have been so mild into Christmas Day, have more or less persisted into early January. However, in that same discussion I also reasoned and explained why I expected a pattern change to commence in January. This explanation also jived well with the mild analogue Novembers I researched and posted along with the difficult winter to forecast ahead!
However, I'm not blind to the fact that the mild and lack of snow beginning of the winter will obviously affect the outcome of the winter 2011-12 statistics! Therefore, in that same vein, I will be updating my Winter Outlook within the next few weeks to account for the exceptionally mild and boring beginning. Oh, I'm not giving up on winter just yet and I believe the notable change I talked about at Christmas time is now happening, albeit slowly.
Summarizing...Mother Nature has become a pain in the Butt!
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
