1/3/14

Update 1/6/14 - Snowfall Totals from Major Winter Snowstorm; January 4th-5th, 2014

Update 1/6/2014 - 5PM
 

Snowfall Totals from January 4th-5th, 2014

Snowfall Totals from  January 4th-5th, 2014
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...STORM TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1056 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014


STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTS

LOCATION                  SNOWFALL     DURATION
                          (INCHES)      (HOURS)        LAT       LON

...BAY COUNTY...
   PINCONNING              M   5.0           30     43.86N    83.96W
   NE BAY CITY             M   7.0           30     43.59N    83.89W

...GENESEE COUNTY...
   GOODRICH                M  11.8           30     42.92N    83.51W
   4 N BURTON              M  13.2           30     43.05N    83.62W
   1 SE GRAND BLANC        M  13.9           30     42.92N    83.60W
   FLUSHING                M  14.5           30     43.06N    83.84W
   LINDEN                  M  16.0           30     42.82N    83.78W
   FLINT                   M  17.1           30     43.02N    83.69W
   2 W SWARTZ CREEK        M  18.0           30     42.96N    83.87W

...HURON COUNTY...
   PORT AUSTIN             M   5.0           30     44.04N    83.00W
   BAD AXE                 M   5.2           30     43.80N    83.00W
   GRINDSTONE CITY         M   7.5           30     44.05N    82.90W
   PORT HOPE               M  13.4           30     43.94N    82.72W

...LAPEER COUNTY...
   4 W LAPEER              M  16.5           30     43.05N    83.40W
   NORTH BRANCH            M  17.0           30     43.23N    83.19W

...LENAWEE COUNTY...
   6 ENE ADRIAN            M   8.0           30     41.93N    83.94W
   ADRIAN                  M   8.0           12     41.90N    84.04W
   2 WNW TIPTON            M   8.9           30     42.03N    84.10W
   MORENCI                 M  12.0           30     41.72N    84.22W

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
   3 NW PINCKNEY           M  11.7           30     42.49N    83.99W
   WHITMORE LAKE           M  13.0           30     42.43N    83.75W
   HOWELL                  M  14.0           30     42.61N    83.94W
   HOWELL                  M  15.9           30     42.61N    83.94W
   2 W FOWLERVILLE         M  17.5           30     42.66N    84.11W

...MACOMB COUNTY...
   MOUNT CLEMENS           M   6.5           24     42.60N    82.88W
   CENTER LINE             M   7.5           30     42.48N    83.03W
   4 NNW RICHMOND          M   8.5           30     42.86N    82.78W
   SSE NEW BALTIMORE       M   9.8           30     42.68N    82.74W
   UTICA                   M  10.0           30     42.63N    83.02W
   1 NNW UTICA             M  10.5           30     42.64N    83.03W
   SHELBY TOWNSHIP         M  11.0           30     42.67N    83.03W

...MIDLAND COUNTY...
   2 ENE MIDLAND           M   5.2           30     43.63N    84.19W
   MIDLAND                 M   6.0           30     43.62N    84.23W

...MONROE COUNTY...
   3 SE NEWPORT            M   8.6           30     41.97N    83.27W
   MONROE                  M   8.9           30     41.92N    83.39W
   4 SSE NEWPORT           M   9.6           30     41.95N    83.28W
   MONROE                  M   9.8           30     41.92N    83.39W
   DUNDEE                  M  10.0           30     41.96N    83.66W
   TEMPERANCE              M  11.0            M     41.77N    83.57W
   CARLETON                M  13.0           30     42.06N    83.39W

...OAKLAND COUNTY...
   FARMINGTON              M   6.7           30     42.46N    83.38W
   2 N FERNDALE            M   7.1           30     42.49N    83.13W
   FARMINGTON HILLS        M   8.1           30     42.49N    83.38W
   3 SW BLOOMFIELD HILLS   M   8.5           30     42.55N    83.29W
   PONTIAC                 M   9.1           30     42.65N    83.29W
   E WHITE LAKE            M   9.9           30     42.65N    83.50W
   5 N ROCHESTER           M  11.1           30     42.76N    83.12W
   CLARKSTON               M  12.0           30     42.74N    83.42W
   4 SSE LAKE ORION        M  12.9           30     42.73N    83.21W
   FARMINGTON HILLS        M  13.2           30     42.49N    83.38W
   WATERFORD               M  14.5           30     42.66N    83.39W
   4 E WHITE LAKE          M  14.6           30     42.65N    83.43W
   CLARKSTON               M  15.3           30     42.74N    83.42W

...SAGINAW COUNTY...
   5 S MERRILL             M   6.8           30     43.34N    84.34W
   FREELAND                M   8.3           30     43.52N    84.12W
   3 NW SAGINAW            M   8.4           30     43.45N    83.99W
   2 E FREELAND            M   8.8           30     43.52N    84.08W
   BRIDGEPORT              M   9.3           30     43.38N    83.88W
   HEMLOCK                 M  10.5           30     43.42N    84.23W
   3 ESE BIRCH RUN         M  11.0           24     43.23N    83.74W

...SANILAC COUNTY...
   LEXINGTON               M   9.7           30     43.27N    82.53W
   SANDUSKY                M  13.0           30     43.42N    82.83W
   2 W PECK                M  16.0           30     43.26N    82.86W

...SHIAWASSEE COUNTY...
   CORUNNA                 M  16.4           30     42.98N    84.12W
   OWOSSO                  M  18.7           30     43.00N    84.18W

...ST. CLAIR COUNTY...
   2 W PORT HURON          M  10.6           30     42.99N    82.47W
   ALGONAC                 M  10.6           30     42.62N    82.53W
   GOODELLS                M  11.0           30     42.98N    82.68W
   FORT GRATIOT            M  13.0            M     43.01N    82.43W

...TUSCOLA COUNTY...
   CARO                    M   9.9           30     43.49N    83.40W
   3 E DEFORD              M  14.0           30     43.52N    83.13W
   MILLINGTON              M  16.0           30     43.28N    83.53W

...WASHTENAW COUNTY...
   MILAN                   M   8.0           30     42.09N    83.68W
   CHELSEA                 M   9.5           30     42.31N    84.02W
   2 WNW ANN ARBOR         M  10.0           30     42.29N    83.77W
   SALINE                  M  10.2           30     42.18N    83.78W
   SE ANN ARBOR            M  10.3           30     42.28N    83.73W
   ANN ARBOR               M  10.4           30     42.28N    83.73W
   DEXTER                  M  11.7           30     42.33N    83.88W
   ENE DEXTER              M  12.0           30     42.33N    83.88W
   CHELSEA                 M  14.0           30     42.31N    84.02W

...WAYNE COUNTY...
   GROSSE POINTE           M   7.6           30     42.39N    82.91W
   4 NE DEARBORN           M   7.8           30     42.35N    83.16W
   LIVONIA                 M   8.0           30     42.40N    83.37W
   2 NNW LIVONIA           M   8.4           30     42.42N    83.39W
   N LIVONIA               M   8.4           30     42.40N    83.37W
   GARDEN CITY             M   9.4            M     42.33N    83.33W
   BROWNSTOWN TOWNSHIP     M   9.5           30     42.15N    83.26W
   WYANDOTTE               M   9.9           30     42.21N    83.16W
   RIVERVIEW               M  10.5           30     42.17N    83.19W
   ROMULUS                 M  10.6           30     42.22N    83.37W


M = MEASURED
E = ESTIMATED
_____________________________________________________________________________________________

Update 1/5/2014 - 1230 PM

Major Winter Storm and Associated Arctic Blast on Schedule!

Little change in previous thoughts on this major winter storm (see previous blogs). One earlier statement remains especially valid "I expect the storm to be one of the more memorable ones (if not most) this winter because of the combination of snow and bitter cold strong winds on the backside."

No change in basic snowfall amounts"(8"- 12" and locally higher)" with the locally higher part not locally but more areas of 12" - 16" due to the heavier snow band that fell overnight due to overrunning moisture that generated the snow. Totals of  3" to as much as 7"snow fell mainly over central and portions of northern Southeast Lower Michigan; mainly from the 696/I-96 corridor northward across the Saginaw Valley and portions of the Thumb.

Strong Arctic winds feeding the system will commence overnight Sunday and be in full force Monday. Considerable blowing and drifting snow will cause near blizzard or blizzard conditions at times on Monday. Temperatures will plunge down to between -10 to + 5 by Monday afternoon with wind chills of -20 to as low as near -40!

________________________________________________________________________________________
Update 1/4/2014 - 1230PM; Latest model reviews and Storm Outlook

Dangerous Bitter Cold Storm to Impact Southeast Lower Michigan Sunday Into Monday!

Models continue to vary a bit but general consensus is for a major storm across the areas mentioned in last blog below.

Set up continues to be quite interesting as far as how much phasing will come together over the eastern Great Lakes. This mornings US guidance now shows the NAM deepening her a bit more as she naturally veers the track to the northwest to compensate for the intensification. This is roughly between yesterday afternoon's UK /British model fig 2/ and this morning's GFS. It's interesting to note the latest British model /00z-UK/ veered her track back east toward Eastern Ohio/West Pennsylvania - got to love these models! Overnight's /00z/ European  is pretty much siding with her sister /UK/ and moving the low center over Eastern Ohio/West Penn.

I like a track closer to NAM given the strong dynamics that will feed the storm BUT the question is (and like mentioned yesterday), when?  Looking at data now available, I prefer a track/pressure between the NAM (fig -1) and 00z Euro/UK until she rides just northeast of Southeast Lower Michigan in Ontario where she'll rev-up quicker. This would take the center between Sandusky Ohio and Cleveland over Lake Erie to west of Toronto (or the ending of track 3 on my Winter Outlook, over the Eastern Great lakes fig -2).

FIG - 1


 FIG - 2

Snowfalls from cold front that slides down Southeast Lower Michigan and storm moving up the Ohio Valley generally will range from 8" - 12" (locally higher) by Monday afternoon. Strong Arctic winds feeding the system will commence overnight Sunday and be in full force Monday. Considerable blowing and drifting snow will cause near blizzard or blizzard conditions at times on Monday. Temperatures will plunge down to between -10 to + 5 by Monday afternoon with wind chills of -20 to as low as near -40!

-Latest Canadian just in sides closer to NAM with center over northwest Ohio Sunday night.

Stay Tuned for further updates 'cause it's gonna be a bumpy ride the beginning to the first week of the new year!


Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

__________________________________________________________________________________________
1/3/14
As mentioned in my last blog; it's been a while since Southeast Lower Michigan has seen such bitter cold temperatures that we actually felt initially this morning (when widespread below zero readings were attained) and are slated to arrive again on strong blustery winds behind an intensifying snowstorm on overnight Sunday into Monday.

All latest meteorological guidance continues to slam the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley Into Canada with a dangerous storm center as far as snow and especially bitter cold air in it's wake. At this early juncture; I expect the storm to be one of the more memorable ones (if not most) this winter because of the combination of snow and bitter cold strong winds on the backside. Worst of the winter weather should be Sunday night into Monday. More at question now is not the bitter cold but as usual; the snow amounts. On the lower side; generally 3 - 7" is possible across all of Southeast Lower Michigan with the heavier amounts over the far southeast corner. On the higher side; generally 6 - 12" could fall (again highest Southeast corner) with a classic heavy snow track (like intimated by some of the models).

This storm is actually the product of two systems; a low pressure system deepening as it moves from the Texas/Arkansas area - a Texas Hooker - and a Arctic blast of some of the coldest air and wind chills of several winter seasons, out over south-central Canada. The Texas Hooker is projected to track northeast through the Ohio Valley and intensify as it advances into Southern Ontario on Monday as the coldest of Arctic air surges into the system.

If this storm continues to phase more like is projected then near blizzard or blizzard conditions are a risk on Monday over the region. If phasing develops further northeast into Ontario Canada; then the very worst of the storm will be northeast. Even if this does happen (a lower probability as of this writing Friday afternoon) dangerously bitter cold wind chills will certainly blast the region on Monday along with considerable blowing and drifting snow! Lowest wind chill values of -20 to even down to near -40 are possible behind this storm!

Updates to follow....

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian