The analogue sample projected an ave of /68.6, -0.8/ with five below normal Junes (a degree or more). There were also five above normal Junes which complicated the call but the average and also trend for June was still below normal averaging about a degree /-0.8/ with warming later in the month prevalent.
From my Summer Outlook:
Let's start with June; a cool or below normal June? That's what all my data is pretty well showing; from analogues, to current and projected upper air patterns, CFS Climate model which looks out over most of June and CFSv2 model, for all of June. Can't argue much with that; though anything can happen we all could be wrong ;-). Let's hope we can slide by with a "closer to normal" June. Also, many times changes occur mid or late month and this June could very well be one of those and warm up with time.
Even though they were just as many cool Junes as warm Junes in the analogues (5/5); the difference here was the cool June departures were more notable than the warm departures for June. The five cool Junes averaged in at 64.7; well below the June norm of 69.4. These cool Junes averaged just under five degrees below normal and were precisely why the average for all of the June sample came in below normal also, at 68.6 /-0.8/. On the flip-side; the warm June's averaged in at 71.9 or 2 1/2 degrees above the June normal (or just about half of the cool departure). There was just a couple of normal Junes in the 12 numbered sample.
__________________________________________________________________
PRELIMINARY
LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)
STATION: DETROIT MI
MONTH: JUNE
YEAR: 2019
LATITUDE: 42 13 N
LONGITUDE: 83 20 W
TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN:
SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND
================================================================================
1 2
3 4 5
6A 6B 7
8 9 10
11 12 13
14 15 16
17 18
12Z AVG MX 2MIN
DY
MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================
1
78 61 70
5 0 5 0.64
0.0 0 6.5 30 270
M M 9 138
38 280
2
72 53 63 -2
2 0 T
0.0 0 10.3 18 300 M
M 6 18 24 290
3
67 45 56 -10 9 0
0.00 0.0 0
7.4 16 170 M M
3 20 170
4
75 51 63 -3
2 0 0.04 0.0
0 7.1 21 230 M
M 9 18 26 240
5
83 62 73
7 0 8 0.17
0.0 0 9.2 24 340
M M 9 138
35 310
6
73 58 66
-1 0 1 0.00
0.0 0 4.7 12 360
M M 9 18
14 350
7
79 57 68
1 0 3 0.00
0.0 0 7.9 16
60 M M 6
18 22
50
8
81 57 69
2 0 4 0.00
0.0 0 10.4 18 70 M M
7 26 100
9
77 67 72
4 0 7 0.04
0.0 0 7.4 14 240
M M 10 18
18 70
10 73
55 64 -4
1 0 0.17 0.0
0 11.0 25 290 M M 9
18 32 300
11 78
49 64 -4
1 0 0.00 0.0
0 6.4 16 300 M M 2
23 250
12 77
58 68 -1
0 3 0.05 0.0
0 8.3 18 330 M M 8 1
23 170
13 64
52 58 -11 7 0 0.15
0.0 0 8.3 21 320
M M 10 18
28 320
14 75
48 62 -7
3 0 0.00 0.0
0 12.1 23 220 M M
7 32 240
15 71
61 66 -4
0 1 0.04 0.0
0 12.2 22 210 M M 10
18 29 210
16 64
56 60 -10 5 0 0.44
0.0 0 7.3 14
40 M M 10
18 18
40
17 73
58 66 -4
0 1 T
0.0 0 3.9 12
10 M M 10
8 15 360
18 78
58 68 -2
0 3 0.00 0.0
0 3.0 12 160 M M 8 8
15 150
19 81
61 71 0
0 6 T
0.0 0 4.3 12 170
M M 9 18
15 180
20 68
57 63 -8 2 0
0.51 0.0 0 8.9
17 360 M M 9
1 23 350
21 78
55 67 -4
0 2 0.00 0.0
0 7.4 15 330 M M 5
18 320
22 77
54 66 -5 0 1
0.00 0.0 0
5.8 12 90 M
M 5 8 17 120
23 79
54 67 -5 0
2 T 0.0
0 5.9 14 170 M
M 6 19 120
24 81 67
74 2 0 9
0.06 0.0 0 10.2 29 250 M
M 8 1 35 250
25 85 63
74 2 0 9
0.00 0.0 0 13.4 25 280 M
M 4 31 260
26 87 67
77 5 0 12
0.00 0.0 0
8.4 17 240 M M
6 24 260
27 88 68
78 6 0 13 T
0.0 0 4.1 22 250
M M 6 38
31 250
28 91 68
80 7 0 15
0.53 0.0 0
5.2 29 300 M M 7
38 38 290
29 89 72
81 8 0 16
0.02 0.0 0
7.6 16 310 M M 6
138 21 290
30 86 69
78 5 0 13 T
0.0 0 6.4 15
10 M M 6
8 21
20
================================================================================
SM
2328 1761 32 134 2.86
0.0 231.0 M 219
================================================================================
AV
77.6 58.7
7.7 FASTST M M
7 MAX(MPH)
MISC
----> # 30 270 # 38 280
================================================================================
NOTES:
#
LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES
COLUMN
17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.
PRELIMINARY
LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2
STATION: DETROIT MI
MONTH: JUNE
YEAR: 2019
LATITUDE: 42 13 N
LONGITUDE: 83 20 W
[TEMPERATURE
DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16
AVERAGE MONTHLY: 68.2 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 2.86
1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.2 DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.66
2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
While rainfall at Detroit Metro was 2/3 of an inch below normal it was more of an outlier as much of the region saw normal to well above as evidenced by the map below. Severe weather was limited for June and in fact; much of the summer. One event that the NWS DTX has recorded occurred on the first calendar day of the summer June 1st.
.
While rainfall at Detroit Metro was 2/3 of an inch below normal it was more of an outlier as much of the region saw normal to well above as evidenced by the map below. Severe weather was limited for June and in fact; much of the summer. One event that the NWS DTX has recorded occurred on the first calendar day of the summer June 1st.
The month of July did an about face with above normal temperatures prevailing. The following map clearly shows the extent of the warmth with temperatures over Southeast Lower Michigan averaging 1 - 3 degrees degrees above normal. This was also the call in the analogues and Outlook
Things started to heat-up in July as well they should with six Julys above normal, averaging better than two degrees. The normal Julys placed a close second with five in number with only one cool July - a far cry from June's stats. Overall, the twelve Julys averaged +0.6 above normal but again not enough to declare the month - by average - a categorized above normal month (>+1.0). Still, there were quite a few notably warm Julys with the above normal six averaging 75.8 or better than two /+2.2/ above normal. (mention 76 degree summers).
The prevalent warm July's in the analogues averaged nearly
3 degrees above normal.
Rainfall during July was quite variable with some areas getting dumped on by heavy storms while the majority of Southeast Lower Michigan beginning to dry out after month's of wetter conditions. While much of the region averaged below normal rain. A band of thunderstorms with wind damage and very heavy rain the region on the 2nd and 20th of July. Severe weather reports can be found here at the NWS DTX for July 2nd & July 20th.
As was found in the 12 previous summer months, August also followed the temperature pattern researched in the analogues. Hot spells backed off some and thus; the average temperature for August was just a degree /1.1/ above normal with an average of 73.1. All of Southeast Michigan shared in the near normal regime. From the Outlook...
By August; a bit closer to a normal temperatures were found but with the above normal Augusts just winning out at five; there were four normal Augusts and three cool Augusts. Average temperatures dropped slightly to 72.3 for all 12 August months. However; again like the Julys, the warmer, above normal Augusts averaged at 74.7; nicely above /+2.7/ over the 72.0 norm.
Rainfall continued sporadic in August with normal to above central and south; below in the Saginaw Valley. While no severe weather has been documented at DTX in event summaries; a narrow band of regenerating storms with torrential rains hit the North-Northeast on August 12th (see map of Metro Detroit) created flooding in the targeted areas near and north of the Walter Reuther Freeway.
August 12th
___________________________________
SUMMER 2019
Much
of Michigan (including Southeast Lower Michigan) had a relatively normal summer
as far as temperatures with reading averaging around a degree of normal.
Rainfall
was somewhat sporadic but on the whole averaged around normal to slightly above
for the Lower Peninsula; below normal west and around normal was seen east in
the U.P. In Southeast Michigan; pockets of below average were also observed
within the normal to slightly above, especially in the Thumb.
SUMMER 2019 - FACTS AND FIGURES
Summer Analogue Verification
As far as actual temperatures in the Summer Outlook the following was forecast:
Temperatures:
Overall; I look for temperatures to average around normal or within -1 1/2 to +1 1/2 degrees of the normals for Southeast Lower Michigan. As far as the patterns researched and analogue projections; see my Temperature trends discussion under analogues.As shown by the state and Southeast Michigan temperature departure map and Detroit departure of +1.0; verified. Temperature actual pattern; verified.
Rainfall:
Look for the general pattern of above normal rainfall to continue into the summer across Southeast Lower Michigan. Analogue summers showed many wet summers with rainfall a couple of inches above normal on average. As far as the pattern researched and analogue projections, see my Rainfall trends discussion under analogues.As shown by Southeast Lower Michigan's precipitation departure map; most areas saw normal to above rainfall but with notable exceptions; therefore a mixed verification. Given the perplexity of rainfall forecasts for a summer this isn't surprising.
I'll end the summer discussion
on an quirky rainfall statistic result at Detroit. Metro Detroit Arpt /DTW/.The
summer total rainfall indeed ended below normal with 8.63 /-1.26/. If you'll note the three other drier summers; they
all averaged in a unusually tight range of only a few hundredths in the mid
8.60's. Here's the fourth now this summer; at 8.63. Remarkable
Many Great Lake Levels Highest in Recorded Modern History
Great Lakes, Lake St. Clair break 100-year-old water level recordsExcellent articles on scattered places around the Lakes in the NY Times...
Great Lake Levels and Projected Levels into October
US Army Corps of Engineers - Detroit District
The majority of the Great Lakes have entered their seasonal declines at this time but levels are still relatively high compared to long term averages. Lake Superior and Lake St. Clair are both forecasted to be an inch above their highest monthly average for September on the 13th, with Lake Erie forecasted to be 2 inches above. Lakes Michigan-Huron and Ontario are predicted to be only 5 inches below their highest monthly average for September on the 13th. Lake levels are forecasted to continue their seasonal decline headed into October with predicted net decreases of 1 inch on Lake Superior, 3 inches on Lake Michigan-Huron, 5 inches on both Lake St. Clair and Erie, and 8 inches on Lake Ontario. See our Daily Levels web page for more water level information.
BRIEF AUTUMN OUTLOOK
TEMPERATURES
At five cooler than average analogue falls, four normal and three above; the autumn temperature projection is pretty well split with a balance at normal at 52.9 /+0.1/. Though below normal falls topped the count at five; the actual average statistic came in a hair above normal but well within the normal range of a degree (+/- 1.0).
Therefore; generally a typical but nice overall autumn is expected but we'll follow the trend of the analogues with a warmer beginning; then normal to below as we advance through mid to late fall. Look for temperatures to average -1.0 to +1.5 of the statistical norm.
PRECIPITATION
Clearly, our analogues project a drier than normal fall with an average departure of -2.00". The drier falls were accompanied by three normal or average rainfall autumns and just one above normal /2003/ at 9.98". Though this September has started out on the wetter side; this wet then dry pattern started mid summer and is typical into the fall. Analogues suggested even with wetter Septembers; still normal to below rainfall dominated in the fall with the exception of 2003.
Therefore; a two-tier range seems suitable with normal to below but with the emphasis on below.
Notable Dates Autumn into Winter:
Autumn Begins: Later this year; Mon - Sep 23rd at 3:50 AM EDT
Halloween: Thu - Oct 31st
Thanksgiving: Late this year; Thu - Nov 28th
Winter Begins: Sat - Dec 21st 11:19 PM EDT
Christmas: Wed - Dec 25th
New Years Day - Wed Jan 1st 2021
Look for the important Winter 2019-20 Outlook early - mid November
