Is It Cold Enough Yet?? Eh, Mom Nature's Just Gettin' Started; Now For Round 2 & 3...

Last week, I warned of the unseasonably cold air projected in our extended guidance to slam the region. "The polar plunge is slated to push into Southeast Lower Michigan by Tuesday night and then, hang around to get reinforcements into the following week (11/16-22)"!

Well hang on because those cold reinforcements are yet to come for Southeast Lower Michigan. They, basically will come down in two cold waves; the first (and the worst) will arrive during Monday, while the second comes down later Wednesday, just to "seal the deal". Gusty winds with bone chilling wind chills down as low as zero or below will accompany snow showers and squalls to complete the 5 week before winter scenario. Looks for temperatures to range from mainly the 20s for highs and teens and even some single figures for lows, during the coldest time in the up coming week. Normals this week; mid to upper 40s for highs and lower 30s for lows. So several days we won't crack the normal lows! In fact, some days this week won't match the normals for the coldest winter days in later January!

Ironically (as mentioned in my last blog, below), we should be engulfed in the throws of the Arctic regime around the same time as the incredible cold wave of 1880!  A welcome moderation, finally should commence this next weekend /22nd-23rd/ and beyond (at least for awhile) so those records for next weekend /22, 23/ look more than safe.

"It will be interesting to see if we can challenge the resilient stretch of record low temperatures for mid November that I wrote about here, previously as SE_Mich Weather Historian (and earlier with the NWS). This record cold stretch occurred /1880/ way back near the dawn /1874/ of official records at Detroit and still hold up till this day! Both the intensity of the cold that we experience and timing may be an issue, we'll see. Something to keep in mind, especially if we have snow on the ground at the time".

DETROIT - NOVEMBER RECORD LOW MAXS AND LOWS IN BLUE

18	48	34	41.0	69/1941	18/1880	55/1954	11/1880	60/1954	14/1880	0.97/1929	18
19	47	33	40.0	68/1985	22/1880	58/1985	9/1880	63/1985	16/1880	1.07/1948	19
20	47	33	40.0	70/1942	23/1895	57/1913	12/1880	60/1931	19/1880	1.02/1988	20
21	46	33	39.0	67/1913	12/1880	56/1931	3/1880	61/1931	8/1880	1.16/2007	21
22	46	32	39.0	69/1913	16/1880	57/2010	0/1880	62/1913	8/1880	2.59/1909	22
23	45	32	38.0	69/1931	21/1880	57/1931	8/1880	63/1931	14/1880	1.24/1891	23

Now while it remains to be seen if we can break any of those archaic records at Detroit from 1880. Flint and Saginaw may be another story, as their records don't include the brutal cold of 1880 for November and little, if any heat island affects those sites. Still, they both have some decent standings in the cold record department this week and several may be a tough "ice-cube" to crack....

FLINT - NOVEMBER RECORD LOW MAXS AND LOWS IN BLUE

18	46	30	38.0	68/1975	25/1989	52/1971	11/1959	59/1971	19/1989	1.03/2003	18
19	45	30	38.0	70/1953	28/1927	58/1985	13/1986	63/1985	22/1927	1.20/1921	19
20	45	30	37.0	68/1953	25/1969	56/1942	14/1969	61/1934	20/1969	1.40/1942	20
21	44	29	37.0	66/1931	24/1964	55/1934	7/1969	60/1934	17/1969	0.65/2007	21
22	44	29	36.0	65/1934	23/1929	57/2010	9/1929	61/1934	16/1929	1.02/1992	22
23	43	29	36.0	68/1931	25/1956	54/2003	10/1956	60/2003	18/1956	0.61/1983	23

SAGINAW - NOVEMBER RECORD LOW MAXS AND LOWS IN BLUE

18	45	31	38.0	68/1975	24/1989	52/1971	11/1989	60/1971	0/1998	1.30/2003	18
19	44	30	37.0	72/1953	29/1951	56/1985	11/1914	61/1991	0/1998	1.16/1913	19
20	44	30	37.0	69/1931	25/1914	52/1982	11/1914	58/1931	0/1998	0.85/1942	20
21	43	30	36.0	69/1913	25/1964	55/1934	10/1969	62/1913	0/1998	0.60/1979	21
22	43	29	36.0	66/1913	23/1929	55/2010	11/1929	58/2010	0/1998	1.70/2010	22
23	42	29	36.0	72/1931	25/1917	56/1931	7/1950	64/1931	0/1998	1.06/1983	2

It will largely depend on the cloud cover and snow cover. While this air certainly has the potential for record cold, I would be remiss if I didn't mention the importance of cloud cover, snow cover AND perhaps the most important; the overall moderating affects on the Arctic air mass - the Great Lakes. Still with the right conditions...

Here are the villains in the piece this week....

* Latest Euro's Polar Vortex prog below; 11/18/12z
That's incredible to have such a low height/cold Polar Vortex over the northern Lakes in   MID NOVEMBER! Got to be a record in upper air data if she verifies...

  
Keep you and the pets warm.


Next Up - What's the big travel day Wednesday along with Thanksgiving/Thanksgiving weekend look like?

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian