11/16/14

Is It Cold Enough Yet?? Eh, Mom Nature's Just Gettin' Started; Now For Round 2 & 3...

Last week, I warned of the unseasonably cold air projected in our extended guidance to slam the region. "The polar plunge is slated to push into Southeast Lower Michigan by Tuesday night and then, hang around to get reinforcements into the following week (11/16-22)"!

Well hang on because those cold reinforcements are yet to come for Southeast Lower Michigan. They, basically will come down in two cold waves; the first (and the worst) will arrive during Monday, while the second comes down later Wednesday, just to "seal the deal". Gusty winds with bone chilling wind chills down as low as zero or below will accompany snow showers and squalls to complete the 5 week before winter scenario. Looks for temperatures to range from mainly the 20s for highs and teens and even some single figures for lows, during the coldest time in the up coming week. Normals this week; mid to upper 40s for highs and lower 30s for lows. So several days we won't crack the normal lows! In fact, some days this week won't match the normals for the coldest winter days in later January!

Ironically (as mentioned in my last blog, below), we should be engulfed in the throws of the Arctic regime around the same time as the incredible cold wave of 1880!  A welcome moderation, finally should commence this next weekend /22nd-23rd/ and beyond (at least for awhile) so those records for next weekend /22, 23/ look more than safe.

"It will be interesting to see if we can challenge the resilient stretch of record low temperatures for mid November that I wrote about here, previously as SE_Mich Weather Historian (and earlier with the NWS). This record cold stretch occurred /1880/ way back near the dawn /1874/ of official records at Detroit and still hold up till this day! Both the intensity of the cold that we experience and timing may be an issue, we'll see. Something to keep in mind, especially if we have snow on the ground at the time".

DETROIT - NOVEMBER RECORD LOW MAXS AND LOWS IN BLUE
18 48 34 41.0 69/1941 18/1880 55/1954 11/1880 60/1954 14/1880 0.97/1929 18
19 47 33 40.0 68/1985 22/1880 58/1985 9/1880 63/1985 16/1880 1.07/1948 19
20 47 33 40.0 70/1942 23/1895 57/1913 12/1880 60/1931 19/1880 1.02/1988 20
21 46 33 39.0 67/1913 12/1880 56/1931 3/1880 61/1931 8/1880 1.16/2007 21
22 46 32 39.0 69/1913 16/1880 57/2010 0/1880 62/1913 8/1880 2.59/1909 22
23 45 32 38.0 69/1931 21/1880 57/1931 8/1880 63/1931 14/1880 1.24/1891 23

Now while it remains to be seen if we can break any of those archaic records at Detroit from 1880. Flint and Saginaw may be another story, as their records don't include the brutal cold of 1880 for November and little, if any heat island affects those sites. Still, they both have some decent standings in the cold record department this week and several may be a tough "ice-cube" to crack....

FLINT - NOVEMBER RECORD LOW MAXS AND LOWS IN BLUE
18 46 30 38.0 68/1975 25/1989 52/1971 11/1959 59/1971 19/1989 1.03/2003 18
19 45 30 38.0 70/1953 28/1927 58/1985 13/1986 63/1985 22/1927 1.20/1921 19
20 45 30 37.0 68/1953 25/1969 56/1942 14/1969 61/1934 20/1969 1.40/1942 20
21 44 29 37.0 66/1931 24/1964 55/1934 7/1969 60/1934 17/1969 0.65/2007 21
22 44 29 36.0 65/1934 23/1929 57/2010 9/1929 61/1934 16/1929 1.02/1992 22
23 43 29 36.0 68/1931 25/1956 54/2003 10/1956 60/2003 18/1956 0.61/1983 23

SAGINAW - NOVEMBER RECORD LOW MAXS AND LOWS IN BLUE
18 45 31 38.0 68/1975 24/1989 52/1971 11/1989 60/1971 0/1998 1.30/2003 18
19 44 30 37.0 72/1953 29/1951 56/1985 11/1914 61/1991 0/1998 1.16/1913 19
20 44 30 37.0 69/1931 25/1914 52/1982 11/1914 58/1931 0/1998 0.85/1942 20
21 43 30 36.0 69/1913 25/1964 55/1934 10/1969 62/1913 0/1998 0.60/1979 21
22 43 29 36.0 66/1913 23/1929 55/2010 11/1929 58/2010 0/1998 1.70/2010 22
23 42 29 36.0 72/1931 25/1917 56/1931 7/1950 64/1931 0/1998 1.06/1983 2

It will largely depend on the cloud cover and snow cover. While this air certainly has the potential for record cold, I would be remiss if I didn't mention the importance of cloud cover, snow cover AND perhaps the most important; the overall moderating affects on the Arctic air mass - the Great Lakes. Still with the right conditions...

Here are the villains in the piece this week....



* Latest Euro's Polar Vortex prog below; 11/18/12z
That's incredible to have such a low height/cold Polar Vortex over the northern Lakes in   MID NOVEMBER! Got to be a record in upper air data if she verifies...

  
Keep you and the pets warm.


Next Up - What's the big travel day Wednesday along with Thanksgiving/Thanksgiving weekend look like?


Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian