"The very latest indications are enough moisture will be transported into Southeast Michigan as a weak wave of low pressure transverses the front (see second map) to bring 1 to possibly 3 inches of snow across the region. Gusty north winds and falling temperatures later on Friday will exacerbate driving problems. Motorists driving Friday up through Michigan should be prepared for this winter weather and any subsequent lake effect snows with higher amounts."
Epilogue: System was a bit of a overachiever as she wound up in the eastern lakes feeding on the better moisture as the Arctic cold wrung out the moisture. Generally; a one notch higher 2-4" category would have been the most accurate call (some isld 5"s ). Overall, my Friday AM forecast did indicate the stronger trends, along with the timing and driving conditions being spot on. Enjoy the winter wonderland this weekend; now on to the next challenge.....
recent snow amounts /per NWS/
Snow map
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Previous blog:
In a winter where true Arctic air infiltrations (a.k.a. pests this winter ;-)) have been as rare as its snowstorms, an impressive plunge of Arctic air will again be our weekend guest, arriving this Friday. Ironically, it was exactly a month ago in January on Friday the 13th, when the first in a series of Arctic waves surged south into the Great Lakes. In any other winter, these plunges of Arctic air and resulting temperatures would not be very noteworthy but given the extraordinary mild winter thus far, they are and it will be noticed! High temperatures will actually drop to below normal levels for a couple of days in the teens and 20s. Normally as we move into the second week of February, our highs across Southeast Lower Michigan average in the 30 to 35 degree range while lows place between 15 to 20.
250 MB Upper Jet
Surface Map
Likewise as in that first mid January visit, this new Arctic air pest will take its harshness out on the inhabitants of Southeast Michigan late Friday into Saturday but then; quickly begin to slide off to the northeast as the weekend comes to a close on Sunday. Snow showers and squalls we also accompany this latest blast (as it did back in January). The very latest indications are enough moisture will be transported into Southeast Michigan as a weak wave of low pressure transverses the front (see second map) to bring 1 to possibly 3 inches of snow across the region. Gusty north winds and falling temperatures later on Friday will exacerbate driving problems. Motorists driving Friday up through Michigan should be prepared for this winter weather and any subsequent lake effect snows with higher amounts.
Surface Map
After this weekend, indications are the action will focus back to our southwest early in the week as the Jet Stream begins to re-group out over the Plains. At this time it looks as though some light snow or mixed precipitation may move back into the region toward Valentine's Day.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
