Frontal Boundary to Lurk in the Southern Great Lakes Memorial Weekend? /Update/

Update 5/24/12:

Really see no need to update previous blog thus far. I was asked (comment section); "What is the most likely time period for showers and thunderstorms on the weekend? I answered this would not be an all the time thing with most likely time period from mid Saturday to mid Sunday. Hopefully; any activity will be of the nocturnal variety and be over Saturday night. The risk of storms pops up again late Memorial Day itself; with a little luck much of that activity will again, hold of till night.  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just a quick heads-up about the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend: 5/22/12

Model Projections to varying degrees are intimating a rather strong push of energy behind a cold front slated to be draped across the Upper Midwest, Thursday into Friday. This front is expected to be pushed southeast across the Lakes Region on Friday into Saturday. How far south the front is able to penetrate a strong upper ridge building with time over the Ohio Valley; will determine the fate of our Memorial  Day weekend weather.

As of early this week; I'm seeing the likelihood of the front drifting at least as far south as the Southern Lakes Region sometime Saturday before slowing; and then stalling in the Southern Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley Region. We are still early in this warm season and thus; the Great Lakes are not the warmest. Generally with the relatively cool Lake waters late in the spring; they aid in the progression south with these type of somewhat shallow cold fronts. This is; in spite of the building upper level heights and subsequent high pressure ridge development aloft. In this early time frame; current thinking is the best chance for showers and thunderstorms would be Saturday into early Sunday. The timing and location will be highly dependent on positioning of the front and possible storm development on decaying storm outflow boundaries.  Also; later on Memorial Day itself there may be a risk of storms as a cold front approaches but this too far out to even speculate at this time.

So in one sentence: This front is looking more like it will goof-up part of the Memorial Day weekend over Michigan before retreating back north.

As we get closer to Memorial Day weekend; I will update the most likely scenario. 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian