12/2/16

Another Beautiful, Long Lasting Autumn Makes it Two for Two! Colder Blast Set for Next Week!


Temperatures Autumn 2016

No, it wasn't your imagination - the recent fall was again very nice and one of the warmest across Southeast Lower Michigan. On the whole, Temperatures averaged in the mid 50s this past fall when taking the highs and lows into account across all of Southeast Lower Michigan. Normally, autumns do tend to lean toward the nicer side for weather in these parts - but not this nice nor long lasting! On average; temperatures average around the 50 degree mark in a normal fall but this fall was anything but normal. Temperatures averaged close to 4 1/2 degrees above normal departure /55.4 +4.6/ for all of Southeast Lower Michigan this past fall. This was warm enough to put the region in the top five warmest falls on record at all three cities; Detroit, Flint and Saginaw! That's pretty impressive when you consider this is looking back around a century or more.

And what's more; note I said "again" in the first line. What's even more extraordinary is that this is the second fall in a row that was this nice and warm. Last fall in 2015; temperatures across Southeast Lower Michigan averaged even a bit warmer at 55.9 as opposed to this fall's 55.4! Both Flint and Saginaw averaged slightly warmer last fall while Detroit had its warmer autumn this fall.

Bringing it home; the last time a fall was this warm or warmer was just last fall; a rare feat in itself as there have never been two falls in a row that were this warm over the region. In fact, it's very rare to find any two falls in a row that made even the top 20 warmest listing, let alone top five. There were only two other "back-back" falls at Flint; 1946 /9th/ & 1947 /11th/ and Saginaw with 1930 /19th/ and 1931 /1st/. Detroit had no other back-back warmest falls in the top 20.

Looking at the particular temperature ranking statistics from the last two falls and top 20 warmest


Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
 1   46.8 1880   58.4 193146.8 1993  56.5 1931  45.5 1917  57.3 1931
2 46.9 1875 57.6 1881 46.9 1976 55.9 2015 46.2 1972 55.3 2015
3 47.6 1976 57.3 1963 47.0 1981 54.7 1934 46.4 1925 55.0 2016
4 48.0 1876 56.9 2016 47.0 1980 54.2 2016 46.5 1943 54.0 1971
5 48.1 1917 56.6 2015 47.4 1967 53.71971 46.8 1981  53.8 1927
6 48.8 1967  55.8   1946  47.6   1995 53.5  1938 46.8 1976 53.7 1963
7 48.8 1887 55.8 1927 47.8 1997 53.5 1963 46.8 1951 53.2 1998
8 49.1 1980 55.6 2005 47.8 1925 53.5 1927 47.2 1993 52.8 2005
9 49.2 1972 55.5 1961 47.9 1966 53.1 1946 47.2 1980 52.6 2007
10 49.2 1896 55.3 2007 47.9 1943 52.9 2007 47.3 1926 52.6 1920
11 49.4 1907 55.3 1953 48.0 1972 52.9 1947 47.7 1977 52.5 1961
12 49.5 1925 55.3 1941 48.0 1951 52.8 2005 47.8 1992 52.3 1994
13 49.5 1888 55.2 1900 48.1 1996 52.8 1998 48.0 1995 52.2 1975
14 49.7 1974 55.1 1998 48.2 1937 52.7 1975 48.0 1988 52.2 2011
15 49.7 1937 55.1 2011 48.3 1957 52.7 1973 48.1 1952 52.2 1973
16 49.8 1981 55.1 1994 48.5 2006 52.4 1983 48.2 1989 52.2 1946
17 49.9 1895 54.8 1922 48.5 1959 52.4 1961 48.2 1986 52.1 1941
18 50.0 1889 54.8 1920 48.7 1952 52.4 2011 48.2 1959 52.1 1970
19 50.1 1996 54.6 2004 48.8 1992 52.4 1941 48.3 1991 52.1 1930
20 50.1 1943 54.6 1882 48.8 1962 52.3 1953 48.4 1967 52.0 1934
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to November 1874.
** Flint Bishop temperature records date back to January 1921.
*** Saginaw Area temperature records date back to January 1912.

Rainfall Autumn 2016

Rainfall averaged above normal /11.36", +2.78"/ around the Detroit area but that was exclusively due to a wet September with over six inches of rain. Near normal rain was registered at Flint /9.68", +0.71"/ and below average in the Saginaw Valley /7.45",-1.71'/. This coming after a rather dry summer with a pick up in rainfall later in the summer into the early fall.

Looking ahead for the first half of December 

The first several days of December look to be about average with a plunge into colder, below normal temperatures the middle of next week /6-7th/. This will be the coldest air of the season being quite abrupt and noticeable considering the past fall. Look for temperatures to average near to slightly above normal through Tuesday with the decidedly colder weather, thereafter. Average highs for the first week of December are in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows in the mid 20s across all Southeast Lower Michigan..

After the Polar front moves through by Wednesday; highs will drop off in the upper 20s to lower 30s with lows into the teens to lower 20s much of the remainder of the week. Best chances for precipitation will be snow or rain/snow on Sunday-Sunday night and rain to snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday. Those traveling near and downwind of the Great Lakes should keep abreast for  Lake effect snow forecasts mid-week on, next week.

 

 Making weather fun while we all learn, 

Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian