Another Beautiful, Long Lasting Autumn Makes it Two for Two! Colder Blast Set for Next Week!

Temperatures Autumn 2016

No, it wasn't your imagination - the recent fall was again very nice and one of the warmest across Southeast Lower Michigan. On the whole, Temperatures averaged in the mid 50s this past fall when taking the highs and lows into account across all of Southeast Lower Michigan. Normally, autumns do tend to lean toward the nicer side for weather in these parts - but not this nice nor long lasting! On average; temperatures average around the 50 degree mark in a normal fall but this fall was anything but normal. Temperatures averaged close to 4 1/2 degrees above normal departure /55.4 +4.6/ for all of Southeast Lower Michigan this past fall. This was warm enough to put the region in the top five warmest falls on record at all three cities; Detroit, Flint and Saginaw! That's pretty impressive when you consider this is looking back around a century or more.

And what's more; note I said "again" in the first line. What's even more extraordinary is that this is the second fall in a row that was this nice and warm. Last fall in 2015; temperatures across Southeast Lower Michigan averaged even a bit warmer at 55.9 as opposed to this fall's 55.4! Both Flint and Saginaw averaged slightly warmer last fall while Detroit had its warmer autumn this fall.

Bringing it home; the last time a fall was this warm or warmer was just last fall; a rare feat in itself as there have never been two falls in a row that were this warm over the region. In fact, it's very rare to find any two falls in a row that made even the top 20 warmest listing, let alone top five. There were only two other "back-back" falls at Flint; 1946 /9th/ & 1947 /11th/ and Saginaw with 1930 /19th/ and 1931 /1st/. Detroit had no other back-back warmest falls in the top 20.

Looking at the particular temperature ranking statistics from the last two falls and top 20 warmest

	Detroit Area*				Flint Bishop**				Saginaw Area***
	Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest
	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year
1	46.8	1880	58.4	1931	46.8	1993	56.5	1931	45.5	1917	57.3	1931
2	46.9	1875	57.6	1881	46.9	1976	55.9	2015	46.2	1972	55.3	2015
3	47.6	1976	57.3	1963	47.0	1981	54.7	1934	46.4	1925	55.0	2016
4	48.0	1876	56.9	2016	47.0	1980	54.2	2016	46.5	1943	54.0	1971
5	48.1	1917	56.6	2015	47.4	1967	53.7	1971	46.8	1981	53.8	1927

6	48.8	1967	55.8	1946	47.6	1995	53.5	1938	46.8	1976	53.7	1963
7	48.8	1887	55.8	1927	47.8	1997	53.5	1963	46.8	1951	53.2	1998
8	49.1	1980	55.6	2005	47.8	1925	53.5	1927	47.2	1993	52.8	2005
9	49.2	1972	55.5	1961	47.9	1966	53.1	1946	47.2	1980	52.6	2007
10	49.2	1896	55.3	2007	47.9	1943	52.9	2007	47.3	1926	52.6	1920
11	49.4	1907	55.3	1953	48.0	1972	52.9	1947	47.7	1977	52.5	1961
12	49.5	1925	55.3	1941	48.0	1951	52.8	2005	47.8	1992	52.3	1994
13	49.5	1888	55.2	1900	48.1	1996	52.8	1998	48.0	1995	52.2	1975
14	49.7	1974	55.1	1998	48.2	1937	52.7	1975	48.0	1988	52.2	2011
15	49.7	1937	55.1	2011	48.3	1957	52.7	1973	48.1	1952	52.2	1973
16	49.8	1981	55.1	1994	48.5	2006	52.4	1983	48.2	1989	52.2	1946
17	49.9	1895	54.8	1922	48.5	1959	52.4	1961	48.2	1986	52.1	1941
18	50.0	1889	54.8	1920	48.7	1952	52.4	2011	48.2	1959	52.1	1970
19	50.1	1996	54.6	2004	48.8	1992	52.4	1941	48.3	1991	52.1	1930
20	50.1	1943	54.6	1882	48.8	1962	52.3	1953	48.4	1967	52.0	1934
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to November 1874. ** Flint Bishop temperature records date back to January 1921. *** Saginaw Area temperature records date back to January 1912.

Rainfall Autumn 2016

Rainfall averaged above normal /11.36", +2.78"/ around the Detroit area but that was exclusively due to a wet September with over six inches of rain. Near normal rain was registered at Flint /9.68", +0.71"/ and below average in the Saginaw Valley /7.45",-1.71'/. This coming after a rather dry summer with a pick up in rainfall later in the summer into the early fall.

Looking ahead for the first half of December 

The first several days of December look to be about average with a plunge into colder, below normal temperatures the middle of next week /6-7th/. This will be the coldest air of the season being quite abrupt and noticeable considering the past fall. Look for temperatures to average near to slightly above normal through Tuesday with the decidedly colder weather, thereafter. Average highs for the first week of December are in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows in the mid 20s across all Southeast Lower Michigan..

After the Polar front moves through by Wednesday; highs will drop off in the upper 20s to lower 30s with lows into the teens to lower 20s much of the remainder of the week. Best chances for precipitation will be snow or rain/snow on Sunday-Sunday night and rain to snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday. Those traveling near and downwind of the Great Lakes should keep abreast for  Lake effect snow forecasts mid-week on, next week.

 

 Making weather fun while we all learn, 

Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian