3/10/15

Second Cold Winter is in the Books! So Let's Look at Those Cold Temperature Statistics

Our second cold winter is in the books across Southeast Lower Michigan; so let's look at those cold statistics and compare them to last winter's. In addition, I'll compare the actual temperature statistics of this winter to my Winter Outlook's forecast issued last fall. Some of the things worth noting is that even though this past Winter of 2014-15 did average higher than the Winter of 2013-14; it was still a cold enough winter to land in the top 20 coldest winters list of Southeast Lower Michigan. The bowels of the cold occurred in February which was an incredibly cold month by any winter month standards, placing in the top five spots for coldest Februaries and all time months. It was the second very notable cold February in a row for Southeast Lower Michigan. In addition, by far February was most notable winter month for snowfall. Ironically, last winter it was January that was the most notable for cold and snow. I'll discuss more about the snowfall and storms in an update on the winter after the snow season ends.

Winter 2014-15 Temperature Statistics

Location Winter 2014-15 Coldest Winter Since
2014-15 Ranking All-time Coldest
Detroit
23.0/-4.9		 1977-78
 18th-T 18.8 (1903-04)
Flint
21.7/-3.3		 1978-79 17th 16.7 (1976-77)
Saginaw
21.5/-3.2		 1978-79
 20th 15.7 (1962-63)

T denotes Winter 2014-15 tied with 1958-59

                                   Winter 2013-14 Temperature Statistics
Location Winter 2013-14 Coldest Winter Since
2013-14 Ranking All-time Coldest
Detroit 20.9 1977-78
 8th 18.8 (1903-04)
Flint 19.0 1978-79 5th 16.7 (1976-77)
Saginaw 18.2 1978-79
 7th 15.7 (1962-63)

  

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Februaries in Southeast Lower Michigan
 
Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
1 12.2 1875 39.5 1882 11.3 2015 34.5 1998 11.5 2015 33.4 1998
2 14.1 2015 36.7 1998 12.8 1979 31.8 1983 12.1 1979 31.5 1984
3 14.8 1934 33.8 1930 13.4 1978 31.2 1984 13.0 1914 30.7 1932
4 16.0 1936 33.6 1877 14.9 1963 31.1 1930 13.2 1963 30.7 1930
5 16.1 1904 33.5 1954 16.0 2014 31.1 1932 13.4 1934 30.6 1931
6 16.3 1978 33.3 1984 16.4 1936 31.1 1927 13.6 1978 30.5 1999
7 16.4 1979 33.3 1976 17.1 1934 31.0 2012 13.6 1936 30.3 2012
8 16.5 1901 33.0 1932 17.3 2007 31.0 1976 14.3 1917 29.9 1954
9 17.2 1885 32.9 2002 18.3 1967 31.0 1931 15.5 2014 29.1 1983
10 17.6 1914 32.8 1931 18.4 1994 30.9 1999 16.8 2007 29.0 1938
11 17.9 1905 32.7 1999 18.5 1923 30.8 1954 16.9 1962 28.9 1976
12 17.9 1895 32.6 2012 18.7 1958 30.1 1938 16.9 1994 28.8 2002
13 18.3 1912 32.6 1890 19.9 1942 30.0 2002 16.9 1912 28.3 2000
14 18.8 1963 32.1 1953 20.0 1962 29.4 1992 17.1 1923 28.2 1921
15 19.3 2007 32.1 1880 20.0 1959 29.3 2000 17.4 1916 28.1 1927
16 19.4 2014 31.8 2000 20.1 1988 29.2 1991 17.8 1920 28.1 1915
17 19.5 1917 31.8 1927 20.2 1982 28.8 1953 18.5 2003 28.0 1991
18 19.8 1899 31.6 1983 20.3 1980 28.7 1987 18.6 1967 28.0 1987
19 19.8 1889 31.2 1991 20.3 1929 28.2 1981 18.9 1958 27.7 1992
20 20.7 1982 31.2 1938 20.5 2003 27.9 1925 18.9 1913 27.7 1937
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to January 1874.
** Flint Bishop temperature records date back to January 1921.
*** Saginaw Area temperature records date back to January 1912.


While the listing of the coldest months has yet to be updated at the NWS to include February 2015, it is easy to see where each site would place with the February temperatures available. Detroit's average of 14.1 would place this past February in fifth place. Flint's average of 11.3 secures a second coldest month placement while Saginaw's reading of 11.5 degrees just jumps ahead of 11.6/Jan 1963 for third place.



Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Months in Southeast Lower Michigan
 
Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
1 12.2 Feb-1875 79.0 Jul-1955 10.9 Jan-1977 78.0 Jul-1921 9.4 Jan-1912 77.5 Jul-1921
2 12.8 Jan-1977 79.0 Jul-1921 12.8 Feb-1979 77.7 Jul-1935 10.4 Jan-1918 76.8 Jul-1916
3 13.1 Jan-1912 77.9 Jul-1916 13.1 Jan-1963 76.7 Jul-1934 11.6 Jan-1963 76.2 Jul-1935
4 13.2 Jan-1918 77.7 Jul-1931 13.4 Feb-1978 76.5 Jul-1955 11.7 Feb-1904 76.0 Jul-1931

14.8 Feb-1934 77.1 Aug-1995 13.8 Jan-1994 76.1 Jul-1931 12.1 Jan-1994 75.9 Jul-1955
    5  -  14.1 Feb-2015                     2 - 11.3                              3 - 11.5


Even with considerably less snow than our all out snowy winter of 2013-14; all cities managed to place in the snowiest list for February. Again, more on the snow side of the winter in successive blogs.

Top 20 Snowiest/Snowless Februaries in Southeast Lower Michigan
 
Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Snowiest Snowless Snowiest Snowless Snowiest Snowless
Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year
1 38.4 1908 0.0 1998 31.7 2011 0.4 1998 34.2 2008 0.0 1987
2 31.7 2011 0.7 1953 29.4 2008 1.4 1992 29.4 2011 0.1 1984
3 28.4 1881 0.9 2004 21.8 2014 2.2 1987 23.4 1935 0.5 1998
4 28.0 1900 1.5 1895 21.2 2010 2.4 1953 22.2 2013 1.4 1983
5 27.6 1926 1.6 1906 20.8 1990 2.4 1937 20.3 1965 1.9 1977
6 27.0 2010 2.0 1987 20.6 1986 2.9 1969 20.0 1912 2.0 1932
7 26.4 2015 2.1 1882 20.1 1994 2.9 1943 19.8 1985 2.1 1980
8 24.2 2008 2.2 1915 19.7 1965 3.0 1979 18.6 1926 2.2 1947
9 23.5 2013 2.3 1969 19.6 1988 3.0 1934 18.4 1990 2.4 1942
10 23.4 2014 2.4 1992 18.3 1946 3.5 1945 18.3 2010 2.5 1969
11 20.8 1986 2.4 1937 17.4 2015 3.6 1984 18.0 2005 2.6 1928
12 19.6 1898 2.5 1966 17.2 1960 3.6 1938 17.7 1924 3.1 1995
13 19.2 2003 2.6 1891 17.0 1924 3.8 1977 17.5 1950 3.2 1919
14 19.2 1988 2.7 1943 16.7 1973 4.1 1928 17.1 1956 3.4 1958
15 18.0 1893 2.8 1968 16.6 2013 4.5 1957 17.0 2014 3.5 1963
16 17.1 1994 2.8 1925 16.5 1926 4.8 1983 17.0 2012 3.7 1957
17 16.9 1985 2.9 2001 16.3 1967 4.9 1932 16.2 2015 3.7 1917
18 16.5 1936 3.1 1949 16.1 1993 5.0 2001 16.2 1962 3.8 1913
19 16.4 1901 3.1 1919 16.1 1962 5.1 1921 16.2 1946 4.0 1964
20 15.8 1965 3.3 1886 15.7 2006 5.3 1958 16.0 1954 4.1 1938
* Detroit Area snowfall records date back to January 1880.
** Flint Bishop snowfall records date back to January 1921.
*** Saginaw Area snowfall records date back to January 1912.


             Best performing analogues with 1884-85 and 1977-78 star performers




My Winter Outlook Call back in November (from Winter Outlook for Southeast Lower Michigan)

Temperatures: Below Normal /-1.0 to -4.0 degrees of the norm/

Temperatures are more variable in this winter's analogues and guidance as opposed to last winter when nearly all headlined a cold winter. That being said, normal to below normal temperatures dominate this winter again in the analogues and is suggested in other meteorological data presented here and why the below normal temperature range of -1 to -4 degrees. The largest below normal departures this winter are projected to be south and southeast of the Great Lakes. In addition; recent past seasons along with very recent unfolding conditions and the subset of preferred analogues also predict  another colder than average winter. Analogue timing of the coldest parts of the winter varies but majority suggest temperatures most likely to be below normal mid and late winter.

Average winter temperature for Southeast Lower Michigan for the winter of 2014-15 using the three climate sites came in at 22.1 which is 3.8 below normal.

All Ten Analogue Composite Map Issued in November 2014



Five Good Call Analogue Composite Map Issued in Nov 2014 for Winter 14-15

(only three years avail for composite, 1884-85 & Dec1894 N/A)



While winter turned out cold in all five winters (looking at my analogues & three winter map), it's interesting how mild or warm the five Decembers were in all five winters (Dec 1884 & 1895 maps N/A) giving more credence to the strong likeness and accurate projections for temperature trends to this past winter.



While both January and February were colder than normal in the East, February definitely was the stand out this year and in the past. Remember, the map below doesn't include February 1885, one of our coldest Februaries in the analogues. The coldest blue anomaly approaches -10.0 normal on average for these four Februaries in the Ohio Valley, Southern Lakes and Northeast while warm weather with above to well above normal anomalies prevailed in the West.


Two Best Call Analogue Composite Maps Issued in November 2014

Unfortunately, only one of the two best analogue maps is available since the winter of 1884-85 is N/A but a great analogue none the less - as was 1977-78. Also as an added  bonus, while not nearly the strength or magnitude of Blizzard of January 26-27, 1978; this past winter also contained quite a notable snowstorm on Feb 1-2nd that brought the third biggest snowstorm amount to Metro Detroit ever (and even more than the aforementioned Blizzard of '78) with 16.7". This storm largely helped consummate the 7th snowiest February on record with 26.4" in Detroit.



More later on other noteworthy items about the Winter of 2014-15, including the final tally of snowfall for the winter.


Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian














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