2/18/15

Winter Outlook and Recent Model Trends Converge and Intimate a Cold Ending to the Winter; Part II - Long Term



On my previous blog; I discussed the short term ramifications of the current "Siberian Express" over the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan. Now lets look ahead a bit into early spring and what my best analogues and current model data suggest for rest of February into March and April. Taking the analogues that have performed good (over all; 5) and the ones that have performed best (2). So, let's see if past meets up with future (models) for this early outlook. The winter of 1884-85 and 1977-78 seem to have the inside track thus far in overall temperatures and snow pattern.

PAST AND PRESENT 

Out of the original ten analogues winter temperatures below /Detroit/; six were below normal, three were normal and just one above. Remember this is guidance based on the past /analogues/ with similar hemispheric conditions in place along with other variables considered such as local previous seasons weather to even similar solar activity. They only suggest or "intimate" how the weather will unfold for the next three months and a not to be used as much for exact temperature departures nor timing. The overall analogue temperature forecast from the original ten has worked out very well thus far this winter in predicting a colder than average winter. In fact; only one of the ten suggested a warmer winter. More on temperatures; looking at the monthly average departures, timing or the temperature trend also worked well. December was most likely to be normal or above with January and February, most likely to be below normal. And, depending on exact timing; February had the best chance to be the most below normal /-3.4/. It's been an rewarding winter in this regard since timing /monthly/ trends are not always the best predictors of "exactly when". The same can be said of magnitude or "exactly how much" in regard to both temperature and snowfall. It is up to me as the forecaster to use the data/guidance chosen and interpret and interpolate from there for a season projection.

Original Ten Analogues for Detroit: Winter of 2014-15


Between temperature and snowfall, snowfall is usually the more vague or chaotic analogue guidance and this winter has been no exception with a split vote on how the winter would play out for amount. Note, there were five above normal snow seasons, four below normal and one near normal. The snow amount consensus averaged on the high side of normal in the original ten /47.2"- Detroit/ for the southern half of lower Michigan. This area basically extends from Flint to Port Huron (or I-69) south to the Ohio border. Further north; normal to below normal amounts were projected. This snow guidance of past analogue winters was also chosen for this winter.

Out of the original ten analogues chosen for the winter; half of them were singled out to be the better to best performing analogues through mid February. These five analogues thus far, have bested either in temperature and/or snowfall amounts, departures or trends when combined. Note that the February departure alone drops to -6.0 from the -3.4 earlier. Out of the five, only one season contained normal temperatures or below normal snow. While 1924-25 is a weaker analogue, it's snowfall trend was still helpful. Most of these five had similar overall weather patterns across the country and East Coast. Monthly snowfall amounts were quite variable in Southeast Lower Michigan, especially when looking at December and January where it seemed it was feast or famine. This of course, is not unlike this winter (December versus February for example). Out of those five; two are the best performing analogues thus far; 1884-85 and 1977-78 for both temperature and snowfall (first and last analogue).

                                     Best Performing Analogues Thus Far




As of mid February /17th/; Detroit's average temperature is 17.2, or within range of both  February's in 1885 /17.2/ and 1978 /16.3/. Latest indications for the remainder of February is bleak if you are looking for milder weather. It really doesn't look like any major warming trend is in sight this month. As stated in the first section; I looked for this past week to be the worst of the winter weather and now February, to be the worst month of the winter when combining both cold and snow. So much so, it may even give January 2014 competition for its frigid mean temperature /16.4/! That would be something but we'll have to wait and see on that one. In addition; up through 2/17; 42.5" of snow has fallen at Detroit Metro Arpt and I expect snowfall to be normal or better from here on out which would add at least another foot and half of snow. This would bring the winter's total near the 1884-85 /60.8"/ and 1977-78 /61.7"/snowfall totals.

Interestingly; some analogue years with less snow /1923-24 &1939-40/ did the best up until February with a mild December, cold January and below normal snow. In fact by late January; 1939-40 looked to be the best - 'ah but winter was not over yet! The truer, facsimile of this winter would be reveled later as time rolled on. Trends in the analogues were for the worst of the winter, cold and snow combined, to be "back-end loaded" and stated as such in my original Outlook. I feel these five analogue winters are similar to the present day meteorological models in a sense; where all can have similar trends but generally, only one or two is the champ. Overall, when taking both temperatures and snowfall into account, the worst of the winter was expected mid-late season - and this has certainly been the case in February. However; it would be remiss of me not to mention that early indications are for bit a moderating trend after the turn of the month in early March


Future

So that's past and present; what about further in the future? Keeping one eye on the analogues and the other on current long term models into spring does not hold much promise for an warm spring. Keep in mind, this early-mid spring outlook is based on the best performing analogues thus far this winter and model preferences. We'll revisit this again when more data is available early in the spring if views change. While I feel the worst of the spring analogues may be a bit too cold /42.4-3rd Coldest/, I still look for temperatures to average below normal. Only one spring in the five analogues in the chart below ended up normal but even that still contained a cold March. Overall; the data is not pretty with many of the Marches in the top 20 coldest along with three of the springs in the top 20 coldest. In fact; there was no warm Marches in the five analogues with a compounded average temperature at 29.5 or 7.7 below normal. April improves some but still averages 3.1 degrees below normal; finally later spring /May/ shows some promise closer to normal. This overall pattern is very similar to last year's spring. As with any temperature predictions; the timing issue could play havoc on the spring temperature trend which would negate somewhat the dominant trends seen here.

Ironically, this local spring analogue data also reflects what the latest CFSv2 model data paints for the region. Precipitation trends also are agreed upon by the model with drier conditions painted for the Lakes Region with precipitation on the analogues averages about an inch below normal.
 
Temperatures:  Below normal into mid Spring (March-April)

Snowfall:          Snowfall should end up around normal to above over the  
                        southern sections of Southeast Lower Michigan and normal to
                        locally below northern sections.

Precipitation:   Normal to below.













                                                    
                                                                                                                              Precipitation Outlook






























































 
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian





















































































































































































































































































































































































































2/9/15

Update 2/16/15 - Winter Outlook and Recent Model Trends Converge and Intimate a Cold Ending to the Winter; Part I - Near Term

Update 2/16/15 - Record cold over the weekend left Southeast Lower Michigan in the deep freeze. The following tables from the NWS-DTX gives the low down on how cold!


MORNING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1139 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

Values represent yesterday`s highs/lows over the last 12 hours
and precipitation over the last 24 hours ending at 7 am EST.


.BR DTX  0216  ES DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ


:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:....................................................................
:       STATION              MAX / MIN  / 7 AM  / 24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW
:        NAME                TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP  / PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH
:....................................................................
WHKM4: NWS White Lake      :    1 / -23  / -18  / 0.00  /  0.0 / 15
ADG  : Adrian Airport      :    5 / -13  / -11  / 0.00
123M4: Ann Arbor           :    7 / -11  / -11  / 0.00  /  0.0 / 11
BAX  :*Bad Axe Airport     :    1 / -21  / -12  /
CFS  :*Caro Airport-Tuscola:    0 / -24  / -16  /
DET  : Detroit City Airport:    8 /  -9  /  -6  / 0.00
DTW  : Detroit Metro Airprt:    7 /  -9  /  -9  / 0.00  /  0.0 / 13
FNT  : Flint Bishop Airport:    2 / -21  / -10  / 0.00  /  0.0 / 9
ONZ  :*Grosse Ile Airport  :    7 /  -9  /  -6  /
OZW  :*Howell Airport      :    0 / -16  / -11  /
DUH  :*Lambertvilee Airport:    5 /  -8  /  -6  /
D95  :*Lapeer Dupont Airprt:    1 / -25  / -18  /
IKW  :*Midland Airport     :    4 / -16  /  -5  /
TTF  :*Monroe Airport      :    3 / -13  / -11  /
RNP  :*Owosso Airport      :    0 / -17  /  -7  /
PTK  : Pontiac Airport     :    2 / -17  / -13  / 0.00
P58  : Port Hope           :    4 / -12  /  -7  / 0.02
PHN  :*Port Huron Airport  :    3 / -26  / -24  /
MBS  : Saginaw - Tri-Cities:    2 / -11  /  -3  / 0.00  /  0.0 / 11
HYX  :*Saginaw-Harry Browne:    3 / -11  /  -6  /
VLL  :*Oakland/Troy Airport:    7 /  -5  /  -5  /
.END


*The temperature data for these sites above represent the highest and
 lowest temperatures that were reported on the METAR observations
 that transmit three times an hour and may not represent the actual
 high or low for that site. These sites do not measure precipitation.
.....................................................................

The following Cooperative Observer sites report from midnight to
midnight EDT.

.BR DTX  0216  ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ

:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:....................................................................
:       STATION               MAX / MIN  / MIDNITE/24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW
:        NAME                 TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP  /PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH
:....................................................................
MDLM4: Midland             :    5 / -15  /  -6  / 0.00 /  0.0 / 4
PRHM4: Port Huron          :    4 /  -9  /  -8  / 0.01 /  0.5 / 8
SGNM4: Saginaw 5W          :    2 / -14  / -13  / 0.00 /    M / 11
.....................................................................

Cooperative Observation values are for approximately 24 hours from
previous OB time to current OB time.

.BR DTX  0216  ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ

..................................................................
:       STATION           OB   /MAX / MIN  /OB  /24-HR /SNOW/SNOW
:        NAME             TIME /TEMP/ TEMP /TEMP/PRECIP/FALL/DEPTH
:..................................................................
: ***BAY COUNTY***
AUBM4:  Auburn            :0800/  5 / -16 /  -2 / 0.00/   M/6

  ***MIDLAND COUNTY***
OILM4:  Oil City          :M   /  M / -18 /  -7 / 0.00/   M/10

: ***HURON COUNTY***
BDAM4:  Bad Axe           :0635/  1 / -15 / -10 /    T/   T/9
FLNM4:  Filion 5NNW       :0630/  1 / -19 /  -9 / 0.01/ 0.1/9
POAM4:  Port Austin       :0715/  1 / -15 /  -8 /    T/   T/6

: ***SAGINAW COUNTY***
MERM4:  Merril 2E         :0800/  5 / -12 /  -4 / 0.00/   M/7
SAGM4:  Saginaw           :0800/  4 / -14 /  -7 / 0.00/ 0.0/6

: ***TUSCOLA COUNTY***
CARM4:  Caro              :M   /  M / -24 / -15 / 0.00/   M/6
CSSM4:  Cass City         :M   /  M / -26 / -17 / 0.00/ 0.0/M

: ***SANILAC COUNTY***
LEXM4:  Lexington         :0745/  4 / -14 / -12 /    T/   T/10
SANM4:  Sandusky          :0707/  1 / -16 / -14 / 0.00/   M/12 
 
: ***SHIAWASSEE COUNTY***
CORM4:  Corunna 2NE       :0600/  0 / -16 / -14 / 0.00/   M/8
DRNM4:  Durand            :0800/  1 / -19 /  -7 /    T/   T/7
OWSM4:  Owosso            :0700/  2 / -14 /  -5 / 0.00/   M/9

: ***GENESEE COUNTY***
BUNM4:  Burton 4N         :0700/ -2 / -12 / -11 / 0.00/   M/9
LIDM4:  Linden            :0713/  0 / -18 / -12 /    T/   T/7
GODM4:  Goodrich          :0730/  5 / -20 / -10 / 0.00/   M/10

: ***LAPEER COUNTY***
LPEM4:  Lapeer 2W         :0900/  4 / -25 /  -7 / 0.00/ 0.0/8
LPRM4:  Lapeer            :0730/  2 / -23 / -16 / 0.00/ 0.0/11

: ***ST. CLAIR COUNTY***
YALM4:  Yale              :0700/  2 / -25 / -21 / 0.00/ 0.0/17

: ***LIVINGSTON COUNTY***
WHLM4:Whitmore LK 1N      :0900/  4 / -21 /  -8 / 0.00/   M/8

: ***OAKLAND COUNTY***
FARM4:  Farmington        :0730/  6 / -14 / -13 / 0.00/   M/6

: ***MACOMB COUNTY***
RICM4:  Richmond 4NNW     :0800/ -1 / -24 / -19 / 0.00/ 0.0/0

: ***WASHTENAW COUNTY***
AASM4: Ann-Arbor SE       :0730/  7 / -15 / -13 / 0.00/   M/11
CHLM4:  Chelsea           :0930/  3 / -21 /  -8 / 0.00/   M/10
MCHM4:  Manchester        :0654/  5 / -17 / -17 / 0.00/ 0.0/10
SLNM4:  Saline 4SW        :0900/  7 / -14 /  -4 / 0.00/   M/6
SALM4:  Saline            :0810/  7 / -17 / -14 / 0.00/   M/10

: ***WAYNE COUNTY***
DBNM4:  Dearborn  #2      :M   /  M /  -9 /  -4 / 0.00/   M/7
DRBM4:  U of M Dearborn   :0900/  7 / -14 /  -2 / 0.00/   M/10
GPFM4:  Grosse Pte Farms  :0800/  5 / -10 /  -6 / 0.00/   M/13
WYTM4:  Wyandotte         :0800/    /     /     / 0.00/ 0.0/13

: ***LENAWEE COUNTY***
BLIM4:  Blissfield 1SW    :M   /  M /   M /   M / 0.00/   M/M
MRIM4:  Morenci           :0730/  8 / -11 /  -9 / 0.00/ 0.0/5
TECM4:  Tecumseh          :0630/  8 / -13 / -11 / 0.00/   M/7
TIPM4:  Tipton 2WNW       :0800/  8 / -13 /  -7 / 0.00/   M/9

: ***MONROE COUNTY***
DNDM4:  Dundee            :0730/  4 / -12 / -12 / 0.00/   M/5
MLIM4:  Milan             :0800/  5 / -13 / -11 / 0.00/   M/M
MNRM4:  Monroe            :0645/  6 / -12 / -12 / 0.00/ 0.0/8
.END

*All data above is preliminary and has not undergone final quality
control by the National Climatic Data Center /NCDC/. Therefore...this
data is subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be
accessed at www.ncdc.noaa.gov.

_____________________________________________________________________
Original post - 2/9/15
Earlier guidance in my Winter Outlook back in November suggested the worst of the winter would unfold the latter part. Statistically, this is roughly mid Jan-Feb for the Dec - Feb meteorological winter ave and also; the latter half of the Nov - Mar cold season. This call was even in spite of a predicted cold and resultant cold Nov. In addition; the snowfall for the season was suggested it would be back-end loaded with best chance for above normal snowfall mid - late season. After a long mild December; I discussed the changes evolving in the teleconnections and oscillations /EPO, NAO, AO/ and the resultant upper air projections for January.

As we move into mid February; the colder pattern has now held since January and the snowier pattern arrived, albeit gradually over the region with the apex coming in our big snowstorm early last week, Feb 1st & 2nd. So therefore; what does the latter part of the February and March (for the cold season) suggesting? As the name implies; COLD. Both the Winter Outlook projections and near and long term models suggest below normal temperatures for Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan, especially the eastern Great Lakes! First off in this particular blog; let's look at the Near Term; the next week to 10 days -  or until later February.

Near Term Weather Outlook; Below to well below normal temperatures (normal
highs/lows/means for mid February; mid 30s/lower 20s/upper 20s)

Model consensus with EPO trend support continues to advertize very cold, Arctic air surging across the Polar regions from Siberia into the eastern half of Canada and the U.S. Cold wave after cold wave of air is projected into the Lakes Region beginning mid week, then over the week end and again, mid next week with some slight moderation between the frigid cold surges! There is also the chance of some significant measurable snow over the weekend and again early - mid next week. If notable snows look likely; I'll update the blog on that account.

In an event; each one of these Arctic outbreak fronts will be followed by massive arctic high pressure "icebergs" which will float down on the "Siberian Express". Besides the snow and lake effect snow showers; blustery, strong gusty northerly winds will announce the arrival of the bitter cold air masses. At this time, the worst of the weather /cold & possible snow/ is expected over the Valentines weekend and possibly again, early - mid next week. Be prepared for what I believe will be the coldest and subsequent, roughest part of the winter with low wind chills! Depending on cloud cover and wind; several days of single figure and teen highs with below zero morning lows are quite possible from mid week until mid week. Of course; as with any weather projection; particulars can change somewhat (warmer, colder, more snow, less snow) but I'm fairly confident with this projected pattern; so be prepared for at least some of the coldest weather this winter.

Of course this means more strain on heating appliances, cars and other machinery and more rapid ice development on the Great Lakes...all that is not needed.

        




                                                    Try to keep warm!
                         Stay tuned for updates and Part II; Longer Term - March's Outlook!
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian


2/1/15

Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday...Touchdown! (*Updated with snowfall reports through 2/2/15)

SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SUPER BOWL SUNDAY'S SNOWSTORM

DETROIT'S SNOW TOTAL OF 16.7" FOR 2/1 - 2/2/15, PUT IT IN 3RD PLACE FOR
BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD GOING BACK TO 1880.

Snowfall Totals from the February 1-2, 2015 Winter Storm /NWS - DTX/

A  strong low pressure system developed across the Great Plains and drifted across lower Michigan on Sunday and Sunday night. Snow began in the southern counties around 1am Sunday and snowed continuously throughout the day on Sunday. Better moisture arrived by mid-afternoon resulting in heavier snowfall rates (up to an inch per hour in some locations). The system finally pushed east of the region round 7am Monday morning. This long duration winter storm resulted in snowfall totals between 9 and 15 inches across the Metro Detroit area, with slightly lower amounts across the Thumb and Saginaw Valley regions (3-6 inches).


 
000
NOUS43 KDTX 022044 CCA
PNSDTX
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-021730-
 
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...STORM TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1048 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015
 
 
STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTS
 
LOCATION                  SNOWFALL     DURATION
                          (INCHES)      (HOURS)        LAT       LON
 
...BAY COUNTY...
   AUBURN                  M   7.2           24     43.60N    84.08W
 
...GENESEE COUNTY...
   GOODRICH                M   8.5           27     42.92N    83.51W
   4 N BURTON              M   8.9           27     43.05N    83.62W
   7 W FLINT               M   8.9           26     43.02N    83.83W
   FLINT                   M   9.2           28     43.02N    83.69W
   LINDEN                  M  10.2           28     42.82N    83.78W
 
...HURON COUNTY...
   5 NNW FILION            M   4.2           24     43.96N    83.04W
   BAD AXE                 M   6.0           25     43.80N    83.00W
 
...LAPEER COUNTY...
   4 E DAVISON             M  11.0           24     43.03N    83.44W
   LAPEER                  M  11.9           28     43.05N    83.32W
   2 W LAPEER              M  12.3           28     43.05N    83.36W
 
...LENAWEE COUNTY...
   2 WSW TIPTON            M   9.5           30     42.01N    84.10W
   MORENCI                 M  11.7           30     41.72N    84.22W
 
...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
   HOWELL                  M  10.2           28     42.61N    83.94W
   1 N WHITMORE LAKE       M  11.0           29     42.44N    83.75W
   BRIGHTON                E  12.5            M     42.53N    83.78W
 
...MACOMB COUNTY...
   1 NW ROSEVILLE          M  10.0           26     42.52N    82.95W
   4 NNW RICHMOND          M  11.7           28     42.86N    82.78W
   SHELBY TOWNSHIP         M  15.5           25     42.67N    83.03W
 
...MIDLAND COUNTY...
   MIDLAND                 M   4.0           24     43.62N    84.23W
   OIL CITY                M   6.0           24     43.61N    84.59W
 
...MONROE COUNTY...
   DUNDEE                  M  12.0           30     41.96N    83.66W
   CARLETON                M  13.1           29     42.06N    83.39W
   MONROE                  M  14.0           28     41.92N    83.39W
   3 SW MONROE             M  15.0           30     41.89N    83.43W
   4 SSE NEWPORT           M  15.0           30     41.95N    83.28W
 
...OAKLAND COUNTY...
   1 N FARMINGTON HILLS    M   9.0           28     42.50N    83.38W
   HOLLY                   M   9.0           28     42.80N    83.62W
   FARMINGTON HILLS        M   9.2           28     42.49N    83.38W
   CLARKSTON               M   9.5           28     42.74N    83.42W
   FARMINGTON              M  10.6           28     42.46N    83.38W
   2 S ORTONVILLE          M  11.0           28     42.82N    83.44W
   WHITE LAKE              M  11.2           28     42.65N    83.50W
   4 N NOVI                M  11.5           26     42.53N    83.49W
   4 N LIVONIA             M  12.3           28     42.46N    83.37W
   1 ENE ROCHESTER         M  13.1           26     42.69N    83.10W
   NW SOUTH LYON           M  13.7           28     42.46N    83.65W
   2 NW WATERFORD          M  14.0           28     42.68N    83.42W
   LAKEVILLE               M  14.0           28     42.82N    83.15W
   2 SE LEONARD            M  15.0           30     42.85N    83.12W
 
...SAGINAW COUNTY...
   5 S MERRILL             M   5.0           24     43.34N    84.34W
   2 E MERRILL             M   6.0           26     43.41N    84.30W
   FRANKENMUTH             M   7.4           27     43.33N    83.74W
   HEMLOCK                 M   7.5           24     43.42N    84.23W
   SAGINAW                 M   7.5           27     43.42N    83.95W
   CHESANING               M   7.7           27     43.18N    84.12W
 
...SANILAC COUNTY...
   LEXINGTON               M  10.0           24     43.27N    82.53W
   SANDUSKY                M  10.0           24     43.42N    82.83W
 
...SHIAWASSEE COUNTY...
   2 NE CORUNNA            M   7.0           24     43.00N    84.09W
  6 WNW DURAND             M  10.5           28     42.95N    84.10W
   OWOSSO                  M  10.5           28     43.00N    84.18W
   SHAFTSBURG              M  13.2           28     42.80N    84.29W
 
...ST. CLAIR COUNTY...
   1 NNW YALE              M  12.2           28     43.14N    82.80W
   COLUMBUS                M  12.3           25     42.89N    82.67W
   ALGONAC                 M  14.0           27     42.62N    82.53W
 
...TUSCOLA COUNTY...
   CARO                    M   5.5           26     43.49N    83.40W
   1 SSW CASS CITY         M   6.5           28     43.59N    83.18W
   VASSAR                  M   7.0           26     43.37N    83.58W
 
...WASHTENAW COUNTY...
   SALINE                  M   9.5           29     42.18N    83.78W
   2 WNW ANN ARBOR         M  12.0           29     42.29N    83.77W
   SALEM                   M  12.0           28     42.41N    83.58W
   CHELSEA                 M  12.2           29     42.31N    84.02W
   3 SW YPSILANTI          M  12.8           29     42.21N    83.66W
   MANCHESTER              M  13.0           29     42.15N    84.04W
   SE ANN ARBOR            M  13.5           29     42.28N    83.73W
   ANN ARBOR               M  14.1           29     42.28N    83.73W
   3 NNW MILAN             M  15.0           29     42.13N    83.72W
 
...WAYNE COUNTY...
   GROSSE POINTE FARMS     M   9.5           29     42.40N    82.89W
   DEARBORN                M   9.6           29     42.31N    83.21W
   3 NE DEARBORN           M  10.0           29     42.34N    83.17W
   1 NW DEARBORN HEIGHTS   M  12.8            M     42.34N    83.29W
   2 NNW LIVONIA           M  13.5           29     42.42N    83.39W
   GARDEN CITY             M  13.5           29     42.33N    83.33W
   ALLEN PARK              M  14.0           28     42.26N    83.21W
   NORTHVILLE              M  14.2           30     42.44N    83.49W
   1 WSW DEARBORN          M  14.5           29     42.31N    83.23W
   WYANDOTTE               M  16.5           28     42.21N    83.16W
   ROMULUS                 M  16.7           28     42.22N    83.37W
   BROWNSTOWN TOWNSHIP     M  17.0           28     42.15N    83.26W
 
 
M = MEASURED
E = ESTIMATED
 
_______________________________________________________________

 
Update 2/1/15 - Posted 240PM 2/1/15
 
As discussed the past few days; our ongoing snowstorm has shown increasing classic 
atmospheric phasing; resulting in an outstanding moisture supply and good dynamics for
a major snowstorm across much of Southeast Lower Michigan  (see blog updates below
this update)! Yesterday and this morning; the Weather Prediction Center of the NWS in Maryland  
agreed with my analysis yesterday (update 1/31/15) on why we had/have the makings of a major, 
notable snowstorm across the Southern Great Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley (see below): 
 
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
420 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 00Z SUN FEB 01 2015 - 00Z WED FEB 04 2015
 
...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHEAST...

QUITE POSSIBLY THE MOST EXTENSIVE WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUN AND MON.  AN
AGGRESSIVE AND SHARP NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS IT INCORPORATES
SOUTHERN STREAM DYNAMICS AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT EMANATING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
SUN MORNING OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
DEEPEN AND TRACK EASTWARD...REACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY SUN
EVENING AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MON
MORNING.  ANOMALOUS PWS FROM MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC/SUBTROPICAL JET AND LOW-LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL
SURGE OVER AN EXPANDING COLD SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A POLAR/ARCTIC
SURFACE RIDGE. THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THE WEST TO EAST AXIS OF FROZEN
PRECIP. FOR DAY 1...SUN MORNING INTO EARLY MON...THE GUIDANCE HAS
SETTLED ON A HEAVY SNOWFALL AXIS ALONG THE MICH/IND/OH BORDERS
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...WHERE A SLIGHT TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF A FOOT OR MORE HAS BEEN INDICATED.

The latest prognostication, surface, radar and satellite data all continue this trend with 
just a slight upward tweaking of both amounts and area coverage. I do believe we will 
most likely place in the top 25 biggest snowstorms at Detroit with a good chance in the 
foot or better category.

 
SNOWSTORM TOTALS AND WEATHER FORECAST:

Snow, heavy at times with considerable blowing and drifting later afternoon into the night. Winds will pick up from northeast at 15 to 25 mph and gusty, becoming north on Monday. Snowfall, with considerable blowing and drifting snow will create near blizzard conditions at times (the winds must at least frequently gust to 35 MPH for a blizzard). Temperatures will drop to around 8 far north to teens south by Monday morning. Ironically, Monday morning is Groundhog Day and I suspect he might be buried and downright crabby if he is pulled out of his hutch; both here and in Punxsutawney Pennsylvania!

Snow Amount Estimates:
Again; I feel the general model trend and intensification are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event: There will be a somewhat sharp line of demarcation from north to south with this system with highest amounts generally to the south of the delineated area. Look for 4" - 7" north/south in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region;  7" -  around 12" from the Flint area east across to Port Huron (I-69) and then; south into the Ann Arbor area to Metro Detroit. Further south across the 1-94 corridor to the Ohio border; 12 - 14+" of snow is possible.
 
____________________________________________________________________________ 
 
Update -1/31/15 - Posted 343 PM 1/31/15
 
First of all up front; let's define Super Snow; when I first sent that out in the title I was thinking of one of our bigger snowstorms in Southeast Lower Michigan; particularly in Detroit where the heaviest snow of the three cities was expected (and still is). I had envisioned of snowstorms of a foot or more when looking at the chart below. As one can see by the chart in which I developed years ago at the NWS for the net (and is kept up to date by the NWS), it's not that easy to officially get a foot or more with just 12 times since 1880 it happening (good way to remember; 12 for 12). Therefore; I thought that would be a good place to start when using the play on words and title "Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday" At that time, the chances looked fairly low for a foot or more when first issued. Now I'm not so sure they are that low...


Detroit's Heaviest Snow Storms

RankDateAmount
1 April 6, 1886 24.5
2 December 1-2, 1974 19.3
3 March 4-5, 1900 16.1
4 February 28-March 1, 1900 14.0
5 December 18-19,1929 13.8
6 February 12-13 1894 12.8
7 February 19, 1908 12.6
8 January 31-February 1,1881 12.5
9 February 9,1911 12.3
10 March 3-4,1895 12.3
11 January 22-23,2005 12.2
12 January 13-14,1927 12.1
13 January 30-31,1982 11.8
14 January 13-14,1910 11.4
15 March 4-5,1899 11.4
16 January 2-3, 1999 11.3
17 December 19-20, 1973 11.2
18 February 3-4,1901 11.2
19 March 7-8, 1931 11.1
20 January 13-14, 1992 11.1
21 December 31, 2013-January 2, 2014 11.1
22 February 25-26, 1965 11.0
23 December 4-5, 1898 10.6
24 January 4-5, 2014 10.6
25 January 6, 1994 10.3

*NOTE: DETROIT'S 16.7" SNOW TOTAL FOR 2/1-2/2/15 PUT IT 3RD PLACE FOR BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD GOING BACK TO 1880.

Latest guidance has ramped up a major (or worst - best if you are snowstorm nut) snowstorm for extreme Southeast Lower Michigan; while still somewhat lesser amounts north of the Flint into Port Huron. As mentioned in previous blog last night; the moisture and dynamics with this system were coming together for this to be a better, more developed Ohio Valley storm that actually slows down some as it approaches western Pennsylvania on Monday.

It's been my observation over the years, usually these St Louie lows are good achievers (but still not as good as the Gulf Low) in their own right as they "paddle-boat" moisture in from the Gulf while they form and develop while moving across the Ohio Valley. What was originally missing like many times (or at least was questionable) was the phasing or interaction of the dynamics in the upper levels to affect the lower levels of the atmosphere. These dynamics are in the form of short wave energy from the northern Pacific, southern Canada and the Central Pacific - which is observed as a "Cut-off Low" (cut off from the main jet stream). Therefore; the amount of energy that was needed to come together to lift and support the increasing moisture pulled north from the SW and Gulf was questionable to produce a major storm.

This distant player in this system is indeed, the large upper low system of the Baja area of California into the Southwest. Even while remaining nearly stationary, it still has been able to pinwheel spokes of energy and moisture from the Pacific over the southwest part of the country. This moisture has been pushed broadly upward into the south and even central part of the country. While the main system stays put, still enough energy and moisture is forecast to be tapped to aid in development of this major Ohio Valley system. See maps and explanations below:

Snowfall and weather forecast:

Snow will commence during the early morning hours of Sunday. Look for the snow to become heavy at times as the day wears on along with a stiffening northeast wind at 10 to 20 mph. Snow, heavy at times with considerable blowing and drifting later afternoon into the night. Winds will pick up from northeast at 15 to 25 mph and gusty, becoming north on Monday. Considerable blowing and drifting snow with temperatures dropping into the teens to lower 20s by Monday morning. Ironically, Monday morning is Groundhog Day and I suspect he might be buried and downright crabby if he is pulled out of his hutch; both here and in Punxsutawney Pennsylvania!

Snow Amount Estimates:
I feel the general model trend and intensification are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event: There will be a rather sharp line of demarcation from north to south with this system with highest amounts generally to the south of the delineated area. Look for 2" - 4" north/south in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region; 5" -  10" from the Flint area east across to Port Huron and then; south into the Ann Arbor area to Metro Detroit. Further south across the Southeast corner of Lower Michigan 8" - 12" of snow is possible. If the storm deepens further and slows down more - some isolated 12"+ amounts are possible in those areas.









Latest European Model Monday Morn 2/2/15:

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian