"Near Term Outlook
As you can tell by some of the prognostic data presented here there is a change afoot this week anyway; and when there is a change in the overall pattern that usually involves a storm and colder air. Well again the models are dancing around with possibilities of a New Years weekend storm /3rd-4th/ and again it's everything from a major snowstorm to rain or freezing rain to nothing for us. Stay Tuned!"
While mentioning a variety of outcomes possible with this system, many of us - me included- where hoping for the season's first major snowstorm as the models showed an array of possible scenarios. Some snow lovers who were stung just a week earlier with the snowstorm-no-show for a white Christmas, were leery of the model's promise of a storm New Year's weekend! I was not hopeful for the Christmas storm and was a little more juiced up for the second; but still was not at all satisfied with the prospects.
Here we are again with a storm taking aim on the Great Lakes - and here we are again - likely to miss a significant snowfall. Why? The decided storm track will likely again be anti-climatic for Southeast Lower Michigan to experience a big storm. Latest indications are the low pressure will begin developing over eastern Texas, slide north northeast thru Western Arkansas, Missouri, southern Illinois and on northward across northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan. From there, best track at this time appears to be over or near Battle Creek, Lansing and Saginaw then out over Lake Huron while she deepens.
Does this mean all chances snow or even mixed precipitation have gone by the wayside? No. As the low approches and pushes the warmer, moisture laden air over the cold air and landscape I look for a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to overspread Southeast Lower Michigan during the day Saturday; changing over the rain across the region by Saturday night then back to snow and snowshowers overnight. The best chance for any accumulations of snow will be again, like the last storm, over the Saginaw Valley at the onset and behind the system.
Have a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year for 2015!
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian