June follows expected overall trend well...warm...dry and wet (depending on location)

All of Southeast Lower Michigan averaged above normal for June and like many other months, it's mainly due to a handful of days. The month on the whole was actually normal to below with a third of the month containing below normal departures. The really uncomfortable heat came from the 4th - 8th with temperatures popping into the 90s three of the five days. The record day of the mini-heatwave came on the 7th when a high of 95 /record/ was attained (Saginaw matched an old record that day with 93). The temperature at Detroit hit 96 on the 8th but this was not a record.

The other thing notable for the month was drier weather surfaced and became much more predominant around metro Detroit south to the border (a big change from the spring). In fact, with just under an inch /.94"/ falling at Detroit Metro, that made it the second driest June on record (and actually a bit drier that the hot and dry June of 1988)!  Severe weather across the region was limited to just a few noteworthy events considering it was June.

Areas from Flint east to the Port Huron and north into Saginaw and Thumb, however, saw normal to above rains. Flooding rains were the big headlines for portions of northern St. Clair county (N-NW of Port Huron).

My call for June was an above normal temperature departure. The average for the selected above normal analogue Junes came in at 70.6 for Detroit. The actual for June 2011 was right on the money...70.6 degrees. 

DPTR FM NORMAL:   1.6   DPTR FM NORMAL:   -2.61    
HIGHEST:    96 ON  8    GRTST 24HR  0.38 ON 10-10  
LOWEST:     54 ON 15,14
From the Outlook,..
Most striking of the analogue trends is the likelihood of a warmer June (or warm first half of the summer).
Taking the average temperature for the above normal Junes in the study (and this was my forecast preference) left an average of 70.6 (see below) In fact, that 70.6 occurred three other times in the five warm Junes! It was the mean, the mode and median...outstanding (and it will never happen again ;-)!
1925 70.6
1939 70.2
1971 70.8
1976 70.6
2008 70.6

Rainfall at Detroit was well below normal but that did not tell the whole story across Southeast Lower Michigan. As mentioned above, well above normal rainfalls were seen at isolated locations across the northern half of Southeast Michigan. Notable drier trends were noted over the southern third of the region.

From the Outlook...

The drier part of the summer showed up at different times and not necessarily mid-late which is more common. Overall, I look for near normal  rainfall (locally above in heaviest storms) as the storm track remains active but with a trend toward rainfall events being less often.
One trend that does show up is a somewhat drier pattern materializes  from the wetter springs. I feel we will see both patterns (dry/wet) this summer and thus, around normal in the general call. 

July's analogues were decided normal to below in temperatures while precipitation amounts were variable (keeping the June rainfall trend).


  1. Hmm...70.6 in 1925, 1976, and 2008...those years are nice company for June 2011! Looking ahead, winter of 1925-26 (78" snow), 1976-77 (44" snow but record cold), and 2008-09 (66" snow), 2011-12??? ;-)

  2. Wow..looking ahead to winter already
    (must be because of this miserable hot day). The pattern this summer continues to oscillate favorably between the trof in Eastern Cananda and strong hot ridge over South-central US (as mentioned in Outlook). While weak troffing wins out for dominance (as evidenced by the dominance of cool and/or comfortable June days), theridge definitely wins out for intermittent extremes (it's the HEAT). The combination of the two, duration and intensity, is keeping the trend near norm to slightly above. Both July of 1976 (one good analogue) and 2008 reflect a comfortably warm July (aka "normal" and look good). Note drier spells showed up at DTW mid late season, not earlier.