March of 1976 - 40TH Anniversary of the West Bloomfield Tornado and a Crippling Ice Storm

Museum marking West Bloomfield tornado 40th anniversary with exhibition March 13th 2016! 

March of 1976 opened as a vicious lion and never really lost that image. A crippling ice and snowstorm hit much of Southeast Lower Michigan; especially from Detroit's northern suburbs up into the Saginaw Valley the first several days of the month (see DTW LCD - further below). Then later in the month, the infamous West Bloomfield Tornado an EF4 tornado was spawned that same stormy month. March of 1976 became known for the most tornadoes recorded in the month of March across the country, more on that at the conclusion of this write-up.

While I was employed with the NWS DTX at this time, earlier data collection, long term memory and later further investigation of numerous notable weather events over the decades, brought the specifics on these storms into the forefront as written below.

Ice Storm of March 1976

This has been noted as one of the greatest natural disasters to ever hit the state of Michigan. A large area of the Midwest was impacted by this storm, hardest hit was Wisconsin and southern Michigan. Several inches of ice accumulated onto trees and power lines. Over 500,000 people were left without power, some for several days. Many communities also lost such services as water and sewer. Sixteen people in the Midwest were killed by this storm and damages were estimated well into the millions. Several counties in Michigan and Wisconsin were declared disaster areas.

It is easy to see why snow, sleet and extended periods of freezing rain focused on the lower to mid Great Lakes as a quasi-stationary front extended for days from the far Southwest into the Great lakes as impulses rippled east northeast along the front. Check out these maps from March 1st-5th as basically, the stalled front caused havoc for the region as moisture was flung northward into the colder air to the north creating the damaging ice storm. The upper wind pattern held parallel along the front with only minor variances for several days. Finally by the 5th; a stronger upper energy vorticity max pushed into the region, dragging a more defined low pressure north of the region, allowing warmer air to surge into the area with temperatures ring into the lower 60s over extreme Southeast Lower Michigan.

Other articles are available from the Ice Storm of March 1976; such as the national guard being called up to help with the widespread damage; also see the devastation on M-live.

WEST BLOOMFIELD TORNADO /EF4/ MARCH 20TH, 1976

Museum marking West Bloomfield tornado 40th anniversary with exhibition!   

The Orchard Lake Museum will mark the West Bloomfield Tornado 40th Anniversary with a special exhibition from 1-4 p.m. Sunday, March 13. The Orchard Lake Museum is located at 3951 Orchard Lake Road in Orchard Lake. 

It was 40 years ago; Saturday March 20th 1976 that the last EF4 tornado was observed in Southeast Lower Michigan and it became to be known as the West Bloomfield Tornado. It was the strongest Oakland County tornado since 1950, touching down in West Bloomfield, according to the National Weather Service at DTW /Detroit Metro Airport/ at that time. This tornado resulted in one death and 55 injuries. It was categorized as an EF4 on the enhanced Fujita scale. A mobile home, 91 homes, 23 businesses, and around 25 automobiles were either destroyed or damaged from the tornado. With total damage of more than $5 million, this tornado also ranks as the costliest tornado in Oakland County. A super-cell thunderstorm developed over Oakland county with the EF4 tornado forming near Halsted Rd between 13 and 14 Mile Rd at 715 pm EST. The peak of the damage was centered around the Orchard Lake/Maple Road intersection; and then dissipating just east of Middlebelt Road. Then at

7:40pm EST; an EF3 formed and touched down further northeast in Macomb County near 26 Mile Rd and Romeo Plank in Ray Township. This storm killed 1 and injured 3 while doing $250,000 dollars in damage.  Those were just two of 68 tornadoes that were ignited by super-cell thunderstorms by the clashing of the air masses, March 20-21, 1976.

Though I'd been in the NWS a couple of years; I can't recall whether I worked that day or not like some of the other notable weather events that have hit the region. I do recall that March of 1976 had averaged unseasonably mild (Fig -1) and was intermittently stormy with wild fluctuations in temperatures (as discussed above in the Ice Storm section) resulting in more weather extremes, at times. Note, the ongoing extreme  high and low temperature volatility around the day of the tornado as spring air masses clashed with the late winter air masses (Fig -2). It's also interesting to note that the atmosphere was on the tail end of a double, moderate to strong La Nina during that particular early spring period. La Nina's tend to encourage severe weather and tornadic outbreaks.

1973	1.7	1.2	0.6	0	-0.4	-0.8	-1.0	-1.2	-1.4	-1.7	-1.9	-1.9
1974	-1.7	-1.5	-1.2	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.4	-0.6	-0.7	-0.6
1975	-0.5	-0.5	-0.6	-0.6	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0	-1.1	-1.3	-1.4	-1.5	-1.6
1976	-1.5	-1.1	-0.7	-0.4	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.8

FIG - 1

 FIG - 2 

March 17th-22nd, 1976

Temperatures for the month average over five degrees /5.1/ above normal with temperatures rising into the 70s that day. Another sideline interesting fact was the official rainfall for that date /20th/ was just a trace a DTW - Detroit Metro Airport. Note the temperature fluctuations in and around that date below in the monthly LCD (enlarged below) in which the conflicting air masses affecting the region at that time were recorded on the F6 LCD. A low of 14 degrees on St. Patty's Day /17th/ only to rebound to 70 two days later on the 19th! Then after that horrible tornado event; temperatures plummeted again with a tenth of snow the next day on the 21st with a low of 21 and then, back to the teens /16/ on the 22nd.

500 MB Saturday Morning 3/20/76

Strong upper level dynamics /vorticity maximums/ over the western Plains were approaching the Great Lakes while a 50 knot wind jet was already in place over the region that morning.

 

Early Afternoon Surface Map Saturday 3/20/76

By early afternoon; temperatures were already some 20 degrees above the normal highs /upper 40s/ with the upper 60s over Southeast Lower Michigan, while dew points rose into the lower to mid 50s. More importantly; further south over the southern Indiana/Illinois region, dew points had surged into the lower 60s enhancing instability with temperatures pushing into the 70s. This was the air mass heading into Southeast Lower Michigan later that day and evening. A strong cold front was approaching the region and with the air mass in place and what was expected to flood into Southeast Lower Michigan later that day; a Tornado Watch was issued later that afternoon. There were no tornado sirens in place at that time and if memory serves; the West Bloomfield Tornado was instrumental in getting them placed across Oakland County!

Upper Air 12Z FNT 3/20/76

 Note the upper air radiosonde from the WSO NWS Flint (upper air site at the time) that morning.
The shear in the atmosphere (among other things, needed for tornadic outbreak to create the spin in the column of air) was well profiled with low level south winds veering and increasing with height to the southwest and then west southwest to 50 Knots @ 500 MB /18,000 Ft/.

 The upper wind data as of evening of March 20th at 500 MB /18kft/

Under the UCAR COMET program, we can see the modified sounding around Pontiac at 00Z /7 PM EST/ below that evening around the times of the tornadoes. Cooling aloft increased the instability while the upper winds continue to show shear with a helecity of 458m2/s2 which is very favorable for strong super-cell tornadic development! As we know, an EF 4 /West Bloomfield/ and an EF 3 /Ray Township/ were spawned that day among numerous others across the

Studies looked at the use of helicity for forecasting the risk of tornadoes.

Helicity 150-299 ... weak tornadoes (possible super-cell)
Helicity 300-499 ... strong tornadoes (favorable for super-cell development)
Helicity > 450 ... violent tornadoes

More:
Numerous pictures of the tornado damage are available at the West Bloomfield Library online; here .

See personal video accounts of this unusual balmy, stormy day here

March 1976: The most tornadoes on record in March

Severe weather climatology and stats for DTX since 1980

List of North American tornadoes and tornado outbreaks

 


Next up later this month; looking at the Winter of 2015-16, the second warmest on record at both Flint and Saginaw; the fifth warmest at Detroit. Did Mom Nature behave herself and follow the pattern expected from the Winter Outlook study for strong El Ninos?

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Winters in Southeast Lower Michigan
Rank	Detroit Area*				Flint Bishop**				Saginaw Area***
	Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest
	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year
1	18.8	1903-1904	36.9	1881-1882	16.7	1976-1977	33.4	1931-1932	15.7	1962-1963	33.3	1931-1932
2	19.3	1874-1875	35.7	1931-1932	17.0	1962-1963	33.0	2015-2016	16.5	1917-1918	31.7	2015-2016
3	19.7	1976-1977	35.2	1889-1890	17.8	1958-1959	32.2	1982-1983	16.6	1919-1920	30.9	1997-1998
4	19.7	1917-1918	33.8	2001-2002	18.6	1978-1979	31.7	2001-2002	17.5	1978-1979	30.6	2011-2012
5	20.4	1962-1963	33.8	1997-1998	19.0	2013-2014	31.3	1997-1998	18.0	1977-1978	30.5	2001-2002
6	20.6	1977-1978	33.5	2015-2016	19.3	1977-1978	31.2	2011-2012	18.2	1976-1977	30.0	1936-1937
7	20.8	1919-1920	33.0	2011-2012	19.8	1993-1994	30.3	1932-1933	18.2	2013-2014	29.6	1982-1983
8	20.9	2013-2014	32.5	1982-1983	19.9	1944-1945	29.1	1952-1953	18.2	1958-1959	29.5	1920-1921
9	21.0	1935-1936	32.5	1879-1880	20.9	1981-1982	28.8	1936-1937	18.7	1935-1936	29.0	1918-1919
10	21.1	1892-1893	32.3	1918-1919	21.2	1935-1936	28.6	1948-1949	19.0	1993-1994	28.8	1932-1933

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

* Storm Snowfall Totals - 1 PM 3/2/16 - New Week, New Storm - March Comes in With the Bite of the Lion!

STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS-

http://www.weather.gov/dtx/march12016winterstorm



-Update 1 PM
Latest suite of this morning's models continue to advertize with more vigor the ongoing band of snow across portions of Southeast and East-Central Lower Michigan. A deepening low over Ohio this afternoon and evening; along with strong convergence will dump moderate to heavy snow over the aforementioned area below. Maximum snowfalls of 8 - 12" are now likely over the area along and north of a line from around Lansing to just north of Pontiac and Port Huron north into Saginaw and the Thumb Region. Traveling in this region will become extremely difficult as the afternoon unfolds.

The remainder of the region remains unchanged.

-Update Midnight

Latest upper air and model runs are intimating a band of slightly heavier snow across portions of Southeast Lower Michigan's central and northern areas. A band of 4 - 7" with isolated spots of around 8" are possible through Tuesday in the area along and north of a line from Lansing to Pontiac to Mt Clemens. The central portion of this region seems to be the best primed for the heavier band.

Otherwise; no change in the current forecast with generally 3 - 6" of snow likely over the remainder of Southeast Lower Michigan.

The aforementioned low pressure system will gain strength as she moves across the extreme northern Ohio Valley during the day and into Ohio by this evening. A snow band will streak out north and ahead of the low during the early morning hours as the low flings moisture up across the above region. Look for this area to fill in across all of Southeast Lower Michigan as the day progresses.

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Original blog 2/29/16


The projected busy end of the winter continues to unfold across Southeast Lower Michigan as another low pressure and storm center takes aim on the Lower Great Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley.

Our latest storm will take a similar path as last weeks (but with a bit more of an east trajectory) and will contain less snow than the maximum amounts measured last week of 8-12". Still, the low pressure is expected to deepen somewhat as the center moves across the Northern Ohio Valley. As with last weeks system; there is a risk of mixed precipitation across the far southeast corner of Lower Michigan but more snow should accumulate over last week's in the far southeast corner.

Generally across the entire region; 3 - 6" of snow is likely with this system with areas a little less or more depending on the exact track and ground temperatures. Look for the snow to advance across Southeast Lower Michigan mainly during forenoon hours (around sunrise and noon) of Tuesday with the best of the snowfall occurring during the late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures should hover in the mid to upper 20s north to lower 30s extreme south as the system moves across the region. Therefore; temperatures on average will be colder by a few degrees than last weeks system.

Because of the warm temperatures over the weekend; snowfall over the area should be somewhat sloppy and slippery on roadways during the daylight; especially those heavily traveled and or treated. However; on the flip side; snowfall over secondary/side-streets and rural areas will be slippery and greasy because of the mild roadways causing a melting/freezing process. The evening rush hour will be the most affected by the system and with a little luck; the morning rush hour should be least affected, especially further east areas.

The rest of the week should be on the cold side so the snow should stick around awhile; at least as much as can be expected with the early March sunshine.

Any notable changes as the system gets bettered sampled by this evening's radiosonde data, look for updates.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

2/24/16 - Update - Winter Storm Affecting the Lower Great Lakes Heavy Snow and Rain; Critical Temperatures Creating Dividing Line For Snow Accumulations

2/25/16
Storm Smmary and Snowfall totals:

http://www.weather.gov/dtx/February24-25SnowfallSummay


Update 2/24/16 Noon
Little change in overall forecast area delineations for snow but with a few inch adjustments in overall final snowfalls as storm appears to be tracking a bit further east. Latest noon surface observations/trough position due to pressure falls indicate a track more toward central (rather than west central Ohio) and then subsequently northeast Ohio.

Updated Forecast Through Thursday

Snowfalls of 2 - 4" are likely across the mildest areas of Southeast Michigan over the Southeast corner Lower Michigan with mixed rain and snow including the east and Southeast portions of Metro Detroit; most of which will fall overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The least amounts of snow being near the Ohio border. 

Areas away from the Southeast corner;  including much of the western suburban Metro Detroit areas, west into Ann Arbor and north into Pontiac and Port Huron are likely to see 4" - 8" of the snow (generally highest amounts over western and northwest areas).  Snowfalls further west, northwest and north toward South - Central Michigan and up into Flint, Saginaw and Michigan's Thumb can expect general snowfalls of 7"- 11" (local areas of higher snow amounts are possible especially downwind of Lake Huron) with all precipitation, snow. 

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Previous blog 2/23/16

Latest morning guidance continues to advance major storm toward Lower Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan. The biggest problem of forecasting precipitation type continues to be where the rain/snow line will set up across Southeast Lower Michigan during the heaviest precipitation from the storm. All areas will still see snow on the backside of the system later Wednesday night and Thursday. The dilemma comes in during the first half of the period when the heaviest precipitation should moves into the region during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening. This itself (daytime arrival in late February) suggests the more likelihood of rain or rain mixed with snow over extreme Southeast Lower Michigan as precipitation advances into the region during the daylight, when the air mass will be naturally be a bit warmer. Another problem that comes is how close the low pressure gets to Southeast Lower Michigan. The closer it gets, the more likely slightly warmer air is pushed northward into the region. Models continue to vary somewhat on the air column /profile/ above the ground over Southeast Lower Michigan and its temperature distribution.

However; a nudge to the northwest has been noted in general which will affect snowfall amounts over the region during Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Note the model maps..

GFS

 Top map above is Wednesday early afternoon, the second is Wednesday evening.

NAM

The above map is Wednesday Evening

EURO

The above map, the European also has the R/S line (light blue) advancing slowly northward into Southeast Lower Michigan as the low tracks northeast across northern Ohio (see track above).

Add to this; it must be remembered that the column of air will be cooling aloft later toward the evening as colder air in the higher levels of the atmosphere advances across the same region;while the ground temperatures are steady to slowly falling

All this in mind; I'm pushing the better snow amounts away to the northwest from the Southeast corner and Detroit Metro area.

Previous Forecast

At this early juncture; snowfalls of 3 - 5" are likely across the mildest areas of Southeast Michigan over the Southeast corner Lower Michigan. Areas away from the Southeast corner; which includes much of the Metro Detroit Area west into Ann Arbor, Brighton, Howell, Flint and areas west and north where general snowfalls of 5"- 9" (highest amounts will be further away from the Southeast Lower Michigan corner where isolated higher snow amounts are possible). Besides of snow of course, will be the very strong northeast winds of 20 - 30 mph with gusts near 40 will cause problems with power and tree limbs along with the heavy snow.

 

Updated Forecast

Snowfalls of 1 - 3" are likely across the mildest areas of Southeast Michigan over the Southeast corner Lower Michigan including the east and Southeast portions of Metro Detroit; most of which will fall overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The least amounts of snow being near the Ohio border. Areas away from the Southeast corner;  including much of the western suburban Metro Detroit areas, west into Ann Arbor and north into Pontiac and Port Huron are likely to see 3" - 7" with most of the snow falling later Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.  Snowfalls further west, northwest and north toward South - Central Michigan and up into Flint, Saginaw and Michigan's Thumb region remains unchanged where general snowfalls of 6"- 9" (where areas of higher snow amounts are possible) with most if not all precipitation, snow. 

 

Besides of rain and snow of course, will be the very strong northeast winds of 20 - 30 mph with gusts near 35 will cause problems with power and tree limbs along with the heavy snow in areas indicated.

Keep in mind that all guidance and logic points to a rather sharp line of accumulation snow to rainy wet areas.  This continues to be a changing situation and therefore updates will be sent; whether or not the snowfall amounts change. 

_______________________________________________________________________________

 Previous blog

As mentioned yesterday, tomorrow we'll update the current expected major storm with the latest 12z guidance (Feb 23rd, 2016 -7AM EST) and adjust expected storm affects on the region by mid afternoon.

Below; we'll compare our present day storm with the storm that started it all for me as far as a fascination with snowstorms and thus, increased my desire to study weather. It ironically, occurred on the same date as our expected storm this week - The anniversary of Snowstorm of February 24-25th 1965! Just passing it's 50th anniversary last year, I remember the day well.

The best part, besides obviously the snowstorm ,was being off two days from school. In fact; those two days, February 25-26th 1965 were the only two days back in the old days (well before kids started to get off of school for anything weather related) that I ever was let off of school in grade or high school. I went to a Catholic grade school in northwest Detroit /St. Monica/ and high school /Bishop Borgess/ therefore; getting let out of school because of a snowstorm was rarely heard of anyway.

Anyway; on the morning of the 25th, which my memory recollected was a Thursday (and checking back on my computer verifies this) we were awaken to a heavy snow cover along with drifts I had never seen in the Detroit metro area growing up my 10 years previously. Snowfalls varied across the metro Detroit area but most were with a few inches of a foot. Officially in the far northwest part of Detroit, I measured a foot in several places around the house. Besides the heavy snow cover were the moderately strong, gusty winds which built drifts in the city lots/yards to up to 2 1/2-3 feet in places from my memory.

Let's take a look at new items from that memorable day for many...

SNOWSTORM Feb 24-25TH 1965

There are close similarities in the expected modeled storm this week, 51 years later and the actual Snowstorm of February 24-25, 1965.  Besides the obvious dates; ironically the Storm of '65 in its infancy was also a Gulf Low that developed in the same region as the models are predicting this weeks storm development on Wednesday, the 24th. The  storm development is expected down over the Louisiana/Gulf Region. The upper air appears very similar as does the surface low development and movement. One major difference with this week's weather is the milder temperatures expected ahead of/and during the storm which could obviously cut down on snowfall amounts. This especially will be noted where rain or rain mixed with snow falls

From the Toledo Blade, which gives a fairly thorough synopsis of the Feb 24-25th, 1965 storm...

"This could be called the "Midwest/Ohio Valley Snowstorm of 1965" 7.8" at Toledo, 11" at Detroit, 12.9" at Flint, 9" at Jackson MI, 10.3 " at Lansing, 17.9" at Saginaw, 7.5" at Grand Rapids, 12.7" at South Bend, 7.5" at Fort Wayne, 12.5" at Indianapolis, 10" at Chicago, 7.6" at Peru IN, 9.8" at Lafayette, 8.4" at Evansville, 6" Bowling Green KY, 3" Cincinnati, 7" Paducah."

"The surface low tracked from Louisiana to Cincinnati to north of Pittsburgh to north of Montreal. The rain-snow line was near a Toledo to Indianapolis line. It was a strongly deepening low from around 1002mb to 983mb in 24 hours, to 976mb in 30 hours.

It was 12 degrees and windy at Toledo after the storm ended. It is interesting to note this situation was along with a strong Greenland block but the upper level flow off the East Coast did not allow a coastal low to develop. This was a definite problem for transportation in Toledo, according to the Toledo Blade. It was also the largest single-storm total snowstorm at Toledo in the previous 14 years, according to the Toledo Blade."

500 MB Heights 

Surface

Detroit after the '65 Storm

 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian


_____________________________________________________________________________
Previous blog 2/22/16

Major Late Winter Storm Likely to Impact Southeast Lower Michigan With Strong Winds and Heavy Snow!

After several days on various tracks of the possible impending storm, better sampling of the atmosphere is indicating very strong dynamic system with copious moisture will affect the region. A more definitive track is beginning to emerge even though this system is still a good few days away, it appears all models have a better handle on the outcome now.

Still; the exact track of the storm/low will have a major impact of snowfalls across Southeast Lower Michigan and Lower Michigan, as a whole. Along with the crucial track of the low determining snowfalls will be the existing relatively mild temperatures ahead and during the early stages of the storm on Wednesday when rain, mixed rain and snow is expected. All precipitation is expected to change over to all snow by Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

At this early juncture; snowfalls of 3 - 5" are likely across the mildest areas of Southeast Michigan over the Southeast corner Lower Michigan. Areas away from the Southeast corner; which includes much of the Metro Detroit Area west into Ann Arbor, Brighton, Howell, Flint and areas west and north where general snowfalls of 5"- 9" (highest amounts will be further away from the Southeast Lower Michigan corner where isolated higher snow amounts are possible). Besides of snow of course, will be the very strong northeast winds of 20 - 30 mph with gusts near 40 will cause problems with power and tree limbs along with the heavy snow.

This storm has more of a Gulf Low characteristic which generally contain the best moisture access along with a very strong southern jet streak in the upper atmosphere; classic of the deeper, more intense low pressure. It has been awhile since a true Gulf Low has affected the Lower Great Lakes and in fact, much of the country as most storms on the East Coast this winter have been Coastal Storm development with impulses originating from the West or Northwest. We saw numerous cousins of the Gulf Low over the Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas region during the severe winter of 2013-14 and late last winter.

All indication are the storm will take shape over Southeast Texas/Louisianan/Gulf of Mexico as an intense subtropical jet streak containing impressive winds of 120-130 knots at the higher levels of the atmosphere /250-300 MB, or 33Kft-35Kft/ and strong horizontal and vertical velocities. It's certainly without question; the most impressive low pressure/storm center projected to affect the region in this benign winter season, anyway!

Next will take a look at specific upper winds and storm tracks of the 12Z/022316 models along with and a little Weather Historian history.  Look for updates during the next few days on this impending storm!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

This Week's Projected Snowstorm Lands on the Anniversary of the Snowstorm of '65 - February 25th, 1965 - A Storm That Started My Facination With Snowstorms

As mentioned yesterday, tomorrow we'll update the current expected major storm with the latest 12z guidance (Feb 23rd, 2016 -7AM EST) and adjust expected storm affects on the region by mid afternoon.

Below; we'll compare our present day storm with the storm that started it all for me as far as a fascination with snowstorms and thus, increased my desire to study weather. It ironically, occurred on the same date as our expected storm this week - The anniversary of Snowstorm of February 24-25th 1965! Just passing it's 50th anniversary last year, I remember the day well.

The best part, besides obviously the snowstorm ,was being off two days from school. In fact; those two days, February 25-26th 1965 were the only two days back in the old days (well before kids started to get off of school for anything weather related) that I ever was let off of school in grade or high school. I went to a Catholic grade school in northwest Detroit /St. Monica/ and high school /Bishop Borgess/ therefore; getting let out of school because of a snowstorm was rarely heard of anyway.

Anyway; on the morning of the 25th, which my memory recollected was a Thursday (and checking back on my computer verifies this) we were awaken to a heavy snow cover along with drifts I had never seen in the Detroit metro area growing up my 10 years previously. Snowfalls varied across the metro Detroit area but most were with a few inches of a foot. Officially in the far northwest part of Detroit, I measured a foot in several places around the house. Besides the heavy snow cover were the moderately strong, gusty winds which built drifts in the city lots/yards to up to 2 1/2-3 feet in places from my memory.

Let's take a look at new items from that memorable day for many...

SNOWSTORM Feb 24-25TH 1965

There are close similarities in the expected modeled storm this week, 51 years later and the actual Snowstorm of February 24-25, 1965.  Besides the obvious dates; ironically the Storm of '65 in its infancy was also a Gulf Low that developed in the same region as the models are predicting this weeks storm development on Wednesday, the 24th. The  storm development is expected down over the Louisiana/Gulf Region. The upper air appears very similar as does the surface low development and movement. One major difference with this week's weather is the milder temperatures expected ahead of/and during the storm which could obviously cut down on snowfall amounts. This especially will be noted where rain or rain mixed with snow falls

From the Toledo Blade, which gives a fairly thorough synopsis of the Feb 24-25th, 1965 storm...

"This could be called the "Midwest/Ohio Valley Snowstorm of 1965" 7.8" at Toledo, 11" at Detroit, 12.9" at Flint, 9" at Jackson MI, 10.3 " at Lansing, 17.9" at Saginaw, 7.5" at Grand Rapids, 12.7" at South Bend, 7.5" at Fort Wayne, 12.5" at Indianapolis, 10" at Chicago, 7.6" at Peru IN, 9.8" at Lafayette, 8.4" at Evansville, 6" Bowling Green KY, 3" Cincinnati, 7" Paducah."

"The surface low tracked from Louisiana to Cincinnati to north of Pittsburgh to north of Montreal. The rain-snow line was near a Toledo to Indianapolis line. It was a strongly deepening low from around 1002mb to 983mb in 24 hours, to 976mb in 30 hours.

It was 12 degrees and windy at Toledo after the storm ended. It is interesting to note this situation was along with a strong Greenland block but the upper level flow off the East Coast did not allow a coastal low to develop. This was a definite problem for transportation in Toledo, according to the Toledo Blade. It was also the largest single-storm total snowstorm at Toledo in the previous 14 years, according to the Toledo Blade."

500 MB Heights 

Surface

Detroit after the '65 Storm

 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian


_____________________________________________________________________________
Previous blog 2/22/16

Major Late Winter Storm Likely to Impact Southeast Lower Michigan With Strong Winds and Heavy Snow!

After several days on various tracks of the possible impending storm, better sampling of the atmosphere is indicating very strong dynamic system with copious moisture will affect the region. A more definitive track is beginning to emerge even though this system is still a good few days away, it appears all models have a better handle on the outcome now.

Still; the exact track of the storm/low will have a major impact of snowfalls across Southeast Lower Michigan and Lower Michigan, as a whole. Along with the crucial track of the low determining snowfalls will be the existing relatively mild temperatures ahead and during the early stages of the storm on Wednesday when rain, mixed rain and snow is expected. All precipitation is expected to change over to all snow by Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

At this early juncture; snowfalls of 3 - 5" are likely across the mildest areas of Southeast Michigan over the Southeast corner Lower Michigan. Areas away from the Southeast corner; which includes much of the Metro Detroit Area west into Ann Arbor, Brighton, Howell, Flint and areas west and north where general snowfalls of 5"- 9" (highest amounts will be further away from the Southeast Lower Michigan corner where isolated higher snow amounts are possible). Besides of snow of course, will be the very strong northeast winds of 20 - 30 mph with gusts near 40 will cause problems with power and tree limbs along with the heavy snow.

This storm has more of a Gulf Low characteristic which generally contain the best moisture access along with a very strong southern jet streak in the upper atmosphere; classic of the deeper, more intense low pressure. It has been awhile since a true Gulf Low has affected the Lower Great Lakes and in fact, much of the country as most storms on the East Coast this winter have been Coastal Storm development with impulses originating from the West or Northwest. We saw numerous cousins of the Gulf Low over the Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas region during the severe winter of 2013-14 and late last winter.

All indication are the storm will take shape over Southeast Texas/Louisianan/Gulf of Mexico as an intense subtropical jet streak containing impressive winds of 120-130 knots at the higher levels of the atmosphere /250-300 MB, or 33Kft-35Kft/ and strong horizontal and vertical velocities. It's certainly without question; the most impressive low pressure/storm center projected to affect the region in this benign winter season, anyway!

Next will take a look at specific upper winds and storm tracks of the 12Z/022316 models along with and a little Weather Historian history.  Look for updates during the next few days on this impending storm!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Major Late Winter Storm Likely to Impact Southeast Lower Michigan With Strong Winds and Heavy Snow!

After several days on various tracks of the possible impending storm, better sampling of the atmosphere is indicating very strong dynamic system with copious moisture will affect the region. A more definitive track is beginning to emerge even though this system is still a good few days away, it appears all models have a better handle on the outcome now.

Still; the exact track of the storm/low will have a major impact of snowfalls across Southeast Lower Michigan and Lower Michigan, as a whole. Along with the crucial track of the low determining snowfalls will be the existing relatively mild temperatures ahead and during the early stages of the storm on Wednesday when rain, mixed rain and snow is expected. All precipitation is expected to change over to all snow by Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

At this early juncture; snowfalls of 3 - 5" are likely across the mildest areas of Southeast Michigan over the Southeast corner Lower Michigan. Areas away from the Southeast corner; which includes much of the Metro Detroit Area west into Ann Arbor, Brighton, Howell, Flint and areas west and north where general snowfalls of 5"- 9" (highest amounts will be further away from the Southeast Lower Michigan corner where isolated higher snow amounts are possible). Besides of snow of course, will be the very strong northeast winds of 20 - 30 mph with gusts near 40 will cause problems with power and tree limbs along with the heavy snow.

This storm has more of a Gulf Low characteristic which generally contain the best moisture access along with a very strong southern jet streak in the upper atmosphere; classic of the deeper, more intense low pressure. It has been awhile since a true Gulf Low has affected the Lower Great Lakes and in fact, much of the country as most storms on the East Coast this winter have been Coastal Storm development with impulses originating from the West or Northwest. We saw numerous cousins of the Gulf Low over the Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas region during the severe winter of 2013-14 and late last winter.

All indication are the storm will take shape over Southeast Texas/Louisianan/Gulf of Mexico as an intense subtropical jet streak containing impressive winds of 120-130 knots at the higher levels of the atmosphere /250-300 MB, or 33Kft-35Kft/ and strong horizontal and vertical velocities. It's certainly without question; the most impressive low pressure/storm center projected to affect the region in this benign winter season, anyway!

Next will take a look at specific upper winds and storm tracks of the 12Z/022316 models along with and a little Weather Historian history.  Look for updates during the next few days on this impending storm!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Cuddle Alert! Coldest Air of the Season Likely This Valentine's Weekend! And, What About Longer Term into March?

The more mixed pattern forecast and discussed recently has come to fruition the past month or so with a "sometimes mild, sometimes cold" pattern pattern taking hold. The biased however, continues to be on the mild side as El Nino continues to greatly influence our winter. However; the second player discussed for the winter, the Polar Vortex has been intermittently sticking its cold beak into our weather regime since January and thus, has been tempering somewhat our as an extraordinary mild winter! This resulted in January actually averaging just slightly above normal (as compared to December's double digit above normal departures) with colder air masses making an appearance. Actually; this month's pattern looks to be very similar to January's through mid month with a very mild week opening the month; only to be replaced by a cold one by mid month - and this is about to commence again.

A deepening low pressure system in formation over the Eastern Great Lakes into mid week will begin to draw down colder, Arctic air into the region by mid week with the coldest of the air arriving this Valentine's Weekend. Temperatures this weekend are anticipated to plummet from around the 50 degrees we felt this past weekend /Sunday/ to morning lows of single digits; above and below zero by Valentine's morning, this upcoming Sunday. Indeed, this would be the coldest air of this mild winter's run thus far. The colder air will be accompanied by light snow and snowshowers as moisture is fed into the system from the east and Great Lakes. The cold, cyclonic flow will aid in pulling down the much colder air that is in place over eastern Canada. The best snowfall amounts will naturally be downwind of Lakes Superior, Michigan and Huron where several inches could accumulate. In and around Southeast Lower Michigan away from Lake Huron and the Thumb Region; I'd look for generally one to three inches depending location through mid week. This expected snow cover will have more of an impact on overnight lows come this weekend, with the coldest mornings occurring in conjunction with snow cover, clearing skies and lighter winds.

Note the low temperatures projected for the coming weekend; granted these could change some but our past cold weather in mid January could see some competition this weekend. After; look for milder weather to again return to the region.

Rest of February into March 

Of interest to meteorological buffs; a very strong stratospheric warming has taken place over the Arctic as unseasonably warm air surged north into the highest of altitudes of the stratosphere. This pattern is generally associated with a dislodgement of the Polar Vortex normally over or close to that region. Latest indications are the Polar Vortex in in the process of splitting (as the GFS has picked up on) with one heading toward southeast Canada while the other heads over to Europe or further east.

"Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming"

These occurs when the westerly winds at 60N and 10hPa (geopotential height) reverse, i.e. become easterly. A complete disruption of the polar vortex is observed and the vortex will either be split into daughter vortices, or displaced from its normal location over the pole.

Longer Term
 
For a longer term through the rest of February and into March; note the following discussion by Atmosphere and Environmental Research /AER/.

AER scientists provide researchers and enthusiasts real-time insights on one of North America’s and Europe’s leading drivers for extreme and persistent temperature patterns. Author Judah Cohen, Ph.D., works at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), a division of Verisk Analytics.

"Longer term we continue to expect that variability in the polar vortex (PV) to strongly influence Northern Hemisphere (NH) weather patterns.  Our confidence continues that a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling event (T-S-T) is underway (Cohen et al. J. Clim., 20, 5335, 2007), which is resulting in a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and is reversing the AO from positive to negative in the stratosphere.   The T-S-T should culminate with the negative phase of the AO favored in the troposphere from after the SSW peak through the end of winter.

General temperature trends across the NH should mirror trends in the AO.  As we have discussed many times previously, while the vertical energy transfer is active, the positive phase of the AO is favored in the troposphere.  The atmospheric energy transfer is now predicted by the weather models to be active through mid-February and even to achieve record values next week.  The record strong energy transfer is also predicted to bring record warm temperatures to the polar stratosphere next week making for an impressive SSW.  This SSW has been evolving for an unusually long time but is likely to peak with the record warm polar stratospheric temperatures next week.  The strengthening SSW should force a negative AO in the stratosphere. 

Our research and that of other scientists shows that the negative phase of the AO in the troposphere is favored, with a ten to fourteen-day delay, for the following four to six weeks after a SSW and a negative stratospheric AO. The evolution of the SSW or polar vortex weakening is likely to modulate which regions are favored for colder temperatures across the NH continents for the remainder of winter. The models are predicting for the PV to slide from its current position over northern Eurasia into the North Atlantic and then stretch out towards eastern North America. As the PV pinballs towards the North Atlantic, the models also predict geopotential heights to strongly build across the North Pacific side of the Arctic in the stratosphere.  This should result in a tropospheric reflection of strong positive geopotential heights across the North Pacific of the Arctic.  Strong geopotential height rises across part or all of the Arctic basin favors lower geopotential heights across Eastern Siberia, eastern North America and Northern Europe.  Lowering geopotential heights in eastern North America and East Asia coupled with ridging to the west will promote a northerly flow of cold air for those regions".


This forecasted pattern fits very well with the Winter Outlook where analogues indicated colder, but still variable temperature conditions likely to dominate the remainder of the cold season through March. The key here is how El Nino plays into this Polar pattern. Will it continue to be strong enough to influence the Pacific jet and allow mild, Pacific air to surge well east across the country; at least at intervals? While I believe the Polar Vortex has now become a viable contender to the El Nino influenced Pacific jet; both should remain in contention as spring approaches. That being said; this battle (as first mentioned back last fall in the Outlook) could very well intensify into a more stormy pattern not seen this winter in our neck of the woods. Again; WHERE these atmospheric battles take off is largely dependent on these two dominant patterns and if, when and where phasing takes place. It has been our observance this winter that notable winter storms have been basically all around the Lower Great Lakes - west, south and east - therefore it will be extremely interesting to see if that established pattern hangs tough the rest of the cold season or breaks down.


Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian