http://www.weather.gov/dtx/march12016winterstorm
-Update 1 PM
Latest suite of this morning's models continue to advertize with more vigor the ongoing band of snow across portions of Southeast and East-Central Lower Michigan. A deepening low over Ohio this afternoon and evening; along with strong convergence will dump moderate to heavy snow over the aforementioned area below. Maximum snowfalls of 8 - 12" are now likely over the area along and north of a line from around Lansing to just north of Pontiac and Port Huron north into Saginaw and the Thumb Region. Traveling in this region will become extremely difficult as the afternoon unfolds.
The remainder of the region remains unchanged.
-Update Midnight
Latest upper air and model runs are intimating a band of slightly heavier snow across portions of Southeast Lower Michigan's central and northern areas. A band of 4 - 7" with isolated spots of around 8" are possible through Tuesday in the area along and north of a line from Lansing to Pontiac to Mt Clemens. The central portion of this region seems to be the best primed for the heavier band.
Otherwise; no change in the current forecast with generally 3 - 6" of snow likely over the remainder of Southeast Lower Michigan.
The aforementioned low pressure system will gain strength as she moves across the extreme northern Ohio Valley during the day and into Ohio by this evening. A snow band will streak out north and ahead of the low during the early morning hours as the low flings moisture up across the above region. Look for this area to fill in across all of Southeast Lower Michigan as the day progresses.
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Original blog 2/29/16
The projected busy end of the winter continues to unfold across Southeast Lower Michigan as another low pressure and storm center takes aim on the Lower Great Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley.
Our latest storm will take a similar path as last weeks (but with a bit more of an east trajectory) and will contain less snow than the maximum amounts measured last week of 8-12". Still, the low pressure is expected to deepen somewhat as the center moves across the Northern Ohio Valley. As with last weeks system; there is a risk of mixed precipitation across the far southeast corner of Lower Michigan but more snow should accumulate over last week's in the far southeast corner.
Generally across the entire region; 3 - 6" of snow is likely with this system with areas a little less or more depending on the exact track and ground temperatures. Look for the snow to advance across Southeast Lower Michigan mainly during forenoon hours (around sunrise and noon) of Tuesday with the best of the snowfall occurring during the late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures should hover in the mid to upper 20s north to lower 30s extreme south as the system moves across the region. Therefore; temperatures on average will be colder by a few degrees than last weeks system.
Because of the warm temperatures over the weekend; snowfall over the area should be somewhat sloppy and slippery on roadways during the daylight; especially those heavily traveled and or treated. However; on the flip side; snowfall over secondary/side-streets and rural areas will be slippery and greasy because of the mild roadways causing a melting/freezing process. The evening rush hour will be the most affected by the system and with a little luck; the morning rush hour should be least affected, especially further east areas.
The rest of the week should be on the cold side so the snow should stick around awhile; at least as much as can be expected with the early March sunshine.
Any notable changes as the system gets bettered sampled by this evening's radiosonde data, look for updates.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
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