Update 5/16/14; Temperatures Flirting Near Record Cold Into the Weekend

Update 5/16

Well below normal temperatures are firmly entrenched over Southeast Lower Michigan, some overnight lows were as much as 20 degrees below normal. Unfortunately; I don't have any better news into the weekend with temperatures still expected to fall into the lower 30s to lower 40s Saturday and possibly now, even Sunday. Scattered frost is also likely in open areas and away from the lakes and major cities. See the records I posted below under 5/14 update below as a reference. While I still feel most records will stay intact, there is the risk of falling in or near record territory at some locations over the weekend.

Take a look at the cold overnight lows Friday morning....

000
ASUS63 KDTX 161521
RTPDTX
MORNING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1121 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

VALUES REPRESENT YESTERDAY`S HIGHS....LOW OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 8 AM EDT


.BR DTX  0516  ES DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/TA/PPDRZZ


:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:.......................................................
:       STATION              MAX / MIN  / 8 AM  / 24-HR
:        NAME                TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP  / PRECIP
:.......................................................
WHKM4: NWS WHITE LAKE      :   54 /  31  /  36  / 0.37
123M4: ANN ARBOR           :   57 /  35  /  35  / 0.36
ADG  : ADRIAN AIRPORT      :   60 /  35  /  38  / 0.19
BAX  :*BAD AXE AIRPORT     :   48 /  37  /  40  /
CFS  :*CARO AIRPORT-TUSCOLA:   50 /  38  /  40  /
DET  : DETROIT CITY AIRPORT:   67 /  38  /  41  / 0.43
DTW  : DETROIT METRO ARPT  :   64 /  36  /  38  / 0.13
FNT  : FLINT BISHOP AIRPORT:   52 /  36  /  39  / 0.21
ONZ  :*GROSSE ILE AIRPORT  :   63 /  37  /  39  /
OZW  :*HOWELL AIRPORT      :   49 /  33  /  37  /
DUH  :*LAMBERTVILLE AIRPORT:   63 /  36  /  41  /
D95  :*LAPEER DUPONT AIRPRT:   51 /  35  /  37  /
IKW  :*MIDLAND AIRPORT     :   48 /  38  /  40  /
TTF  :*MONROE AIRPORT      :   63 /  36  /  39  /
RNP  :*OWOSSO AIRPORT      :    M /   M  /   M  /
PTK  : PONTIAC AIRPORT     :   56 /  34  /  37  / 0.34
P58  : PORT HOPE           :   49 /  37  /  38  / 0.33
PHN  :*PORT HURON AIRPORT  :   64 /  36  /  39  /
MBS  : SAGINAW - TRI-CITIES:   49 /  37  /  39  / 0.28
HYX  :*SAGINAW-HARRY BROWNE:   50 /  36  /  37  /
VLL  :*OAKLAND/TROY AIRPORT:   62 /  37  /  38  /
YIP  : YPSILANTI WILLOW RUN:   66 /  37  /  40  / 0.24
.END


*THE TEMPERATURE DATA FOR THESE SITES ABOVE REPRESENT THE HIGHEST AND
 LOWEST TEMPERATURES THAT WERE REPORTED ON THE METAR OBSERVATIONS
 THAT TRANSMIT THREE TIMES AN HOUR AND MAY NOT REPRESENT THE ACTUAL
 HIGH OR LOW FOR THAT SITE. THESE SITES DO NOT MEASURE
 PRECIPITATION.
.....................................................................


THE FOLLOWING COOPERATIVE OBSERVER SITES REPORT FROM MIDNIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT THE PREVIOUS DAY.


.BR DTX  0516  ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ


:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:.......................................................
:       STATION               MAX / MIN  / 12 AM /24-HR
:        NAME                 TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP  /PRECIP
:.......................................................
ARNM4: ADRIAN              :   59 /  41  /  42  / 0.54
MILM4: MILFORD - GM GROUNDS:   54 /  41  /  41  / 0.63
MDLM4: MIDLAND             :   58 /  37  /  37  / 1.39
MTCM4: MT CLEMENS SELFRIDGE:   65 /  45  /  45  / 0.88
PRHM4: PORT HURON          :   64 /  43  /  46  / 0.94
SGNM4: SAGINAW 5W          :   48 /  37  /  37  / 1.58
.....................................................................


COOPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS VALUES ARE FOR APPROXIMATELY THE PREVIOUS 24
HOURS FROM YESTERDAYS OBSERVATION TIME TO TODAY`S OBSERVATION TIME.


.BR DTX  0516  ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ


:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:.........................................................
:       STATION            OB   /MAX / MIN  / OB   /24-HR
:        NAME              TIME /TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP /PRECIP
:.........................................................
: ***MIDLAND COUNTY***


: ***BAY COUNTY***


: ***HURON COUNTY***
BDAM4:  BAD AXE           :0725/   48 /  37  /  38  / 0.33
FLNM4:  FILION 5NNW       :M   /    M /   M  /   M  / 0.26
POAM4:  PORT AUSTIN       :0747/   48 /  36  /  37  / 0.30
PHPM4:  PORT HOPE         :0800/   50 /  36  /  38  / 0.40


: ***SAGINAW COUNTY***
CHSM4:  CHESANING         :0730/      /      /      / 0.43
FKMM4:  FRANKENMUTH 1SE   :0740/   49 /  35  /  36  / 0.20
MERM4:  MERRIL 2E         :0800/   49 /  35  /  38  /    M
SAGM4:  SAGINAW           :0800/   48 /  35  /  37  / 0.38


: ***TUSCOLA COUNTY***
CARM4:  CARO              :0710/   56 /  35  /  36  / 0.25
VSSM4:  VASSAR            :0700/   50 /  36  /  37  / 0.34


: ***SANILAC COUNTY***
LEXM4:  LEXINGTON         :0725/   55 /  36  /  39  / 0.60
SANM4:  SANDUSKY          :0639/   53 /  36  /  37  / 0.40


: ***SHIAWASSEE COUNTY***
CORM4:  CORUNNA 2NE       :0600/   54 /  36  /  36  / 0.79
DRNM4:  DURAND            :0800/   49 /  34  /  37  / 0.21


: ***GENESEE COUNTY***
BUNM4:  BURTON 4N         :0700/   54 /  33  /  37  / 0.30
FLTM4:  FLINT  7W         :0800/   51 /  35  /  38  / 0.22
LIDM4:  LINDEN            :0720/   49 /  34  /  37  /    M
GODM4:  GOODRICH          :0730/   51 /  33  /  37  / 0.16


: ***LAPEER COUNTY***
LPEM4:  LAPEER 2W         :0900/   52 /  34  /  38  / 0.04
LPRM4:  LAPEER            :0730/   52 /  35  /  37  / 0.30


: ***ST. CLAIR COUNTY***
YALM4:  YALE              :0630/   59 /  35  /  37  / 0.47


: ***LIVINGSTON COUNTY***
HOWM4:  HOWELL            :0800/   52 /  34  /  39  / 0.31
WHLM4:WHITMORE LK 1N      :0700/   54 /  35  /  35  / 0.40


: ***OAKLAND COUNTY***
FARM4:  FARMINGTON        :0730/   59 /  34  /  36  / 0.25
PONM4:  PONTIAC           :1052/   57 /  35  /  43  / 0.02
WSBM4:  WEST BLOOMFIELD   :0615/      /       /     / 0.30


: ***MACOMB COUNTY***
RICM4:  RICHMOND 4NNW     :0800/   62 /  36  /  39  / 0.62


: ***WASHTENAW COUNTY***
AASM4: ANN ARBOR-SOUTHEAST:0730/   59 /  35  /  37  / 0.28
CHLM4:  CHELSEA           :0943/   52 /  34  /  42  / 0.02
MCHM4:  MANCHESTER        :0705/   56 /  33  /  34  / 0.36
SLNM4:  SALINE 4SW        :0900/   57 /  26  /  37  / 0.09
SALM4:  SALINE            :0815/   60 /  35  /  41  / 0.24


: ***WAYNE COUNTY***
DBNM4:  DEARBORN          :0600/   64 /  37  /  37  / 0.20
DRBM4:U OF M DEARBORN     :0900/   63 /  34  /  41  / 0.04
GPFM4:  GROSSE PTE FARMS  :0800/   64 /  36  /  39  / 0.59
WYTM4:  WYANDOTTE         :0800/      /       /     / 0.15


: ***LENAWEE COUNTY***
BLIM4:  BLISSFIELD        :0630/      /       /     / 0.18
MRIM4:  MORENCI           :0730/   60 /  32  /  35  / 0.27
TECM4:  TECUMSEH          :0630/   60 /  33  /  35  / 0.42
TIPM4:  TIPTON 2WNW       :0800/   58 /  33  /  38  / 0.26


: ***MONROE COUNTY***
DNDM4:  DUNDEE            :0700/   62 /  35  /  36  / 0.22
MLIM4:  MILAN             :0605/   62 /  35  /  35  / 0.26
MNRM4:  MONROE            :0900/   62 /  35  /  43  / 0.08
NWPM4:  NEWPORT 4SSE      :0700/   61 /  37  /  37  / 0.19
.END

 

Update 5/14

First things first; stormy weather over the past few days brought scattered damaging thunderstorm winds and flooding rains across Southeast Lower Michigan. Here is the Severe Weather Report for Tuesday, 5/13 from the NWS in White Lake /DTX/. None of the three "tornadoes" reported during Monday's (5/12) storms were ever confirmed.

Below this summary, is the rest of the week's outlook.

Severe Thunderstorm Summary for May 13, 2014

Severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front on the afternoon of May 13, 2013. Storms raced east across most of Southeast Lower Michigan, causing a broad area of damage. Several trees and power lines were downed, along with reports of wind gust measurements ranging from 50 to 60 mph.


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW BRIGHTON           42.56N 83.83W
05/13/2014                   LIVINGSTON         MI   AMATEUR RADIO 

            THE TOP OF A 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE WAS BLOWN OFF.

0252 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE PINCKNEY          42.44N 83.90W
05/13/2014                   LIVINGSTON         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN

0254 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW ANN ARBOR         42.28N 83.77W
05/13/2014                   WASHTENAW          MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HURON - DEXTER AND MAPLE STREETS...6 HOMES WITH
            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW ANN ARBOR         42.23N 83.76W
05/13/2014                   WASHTENAW          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWNS ELLSWORTH AND LOHR

0258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW ANN ARBOR         42.27N 83.75W
05/13/2014                   WASHTENAW          MI   PUBLIC        

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND FELL ON TOP OF DETATTACHED GARAGE
            AT MAIN AND KOCH ROADS

0302 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N YPSILANTI           42.32N 83.63W
05/13/2014                   WASHTENAW          MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN ON WIRES.

0302 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UBLY                    43.71N 82.93W
05/13/2014                   HURON              MI   911 CALL CENTER

            DOWNED POWER LINES

0311 PM     FLOOD            FLINT                   43.02N 83.69W
05/13/2014                   GENESEE            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE STREETS FLOODED- VEHICLES STRANDED NEAR ATHERTON
            AND HEMPHILL ROADS WEST OF SAGINAW STREET.

0311 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE ANN ARBOR         42.26N 83.66W
05/13/2014  E65.00 MPH       WASHTENAW          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NO REPORT OF DAMAGE AT THIS TIME.

0314 PM     TSTM WND GST     OXFORD                  42.82N 83.25W
05/13/2014  E60.00 MPH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FENCE BLOWN OVER

0316 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROMULUS                 42.22N 83.37W
05/13/2014  M58.00 MPH       WAYNE              MI   ASOS          

0318 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FARMINGTON HILLS        42.49N 83.38W
05/13/2014                   OAKLAND            MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED OFF RADAR.

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S PETERSBURG          41.85N 83.71W
05/13/2014                   MONROE             MI   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN

0332 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S DUNDEE              41.88N 83.67W
05/13/2014                   MONROE             MI   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE AND WIRES DOWN.

0336 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW IDA               41.88N 83.59W
05/13/2014                   MONROE             MI   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN

0337 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLINTON TOWNSHIP        42.59N 82.92W
05/13/2014  M61.00 MPH       MACOMB             MI   PUBLIC        

            VIA FACEBOOK

0338 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ESE WARREN            42.49N 83.01W
05/13/2014  E60.00 MPH       MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JUST NORTH OF 11 MILE RD ON HOOVER IN WARREN.

0338 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W MACOMB TOWNSHIP     42.67N 83.01W
05/13/2014                   MACOMB             MI   PUBLIC        

            TWO LARGE TREES DOWN AT 23 MILE AND SHELBY. REPORT VIA
            FACEBOOK.

0338 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MELVIN                  43.18N 82.86W
05/13/2014                   SANILAC            MI   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER POLE AND WIRES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0355 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND MOUNT CLEMENS           42.60N 82.88W
05/13/2014  M39.00 MPH       MACOMB             MI   ASOS          

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBUS                42.89N 82.67W
05/13/2014                   ST. CLAIR          MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON TRUCK.

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE RICHMOND          42.83N 82.67W
05/13/2014                   ST. CLAIR          MI   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN/POWER OUT GRATIOT AND ELLSWORTH.

0417 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND PORT HURON              42.99N 82.43W
05/13/2014  M40.00 MPH       ST. CLAIR          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0421 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SSE ST. CLAIR           42.82N 82.49W
05/13/2014                   ST. CLAIR          MI   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

0440 PM     FLOOD            6 NNW GROSSE POINTE     42.47N 82.94W
05/13/2014                   MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER ROADS BETWEEN GRATOIT AND KELLY STREETS.

0453 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E RICHMOND            42.81N 82.68W
05/13/2014                   ST. CLAIR          MI   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN/POWER OUT. BARTEL RD.

0453 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SSE ST. CLAIR           42.82N 82.49W
05/13/2014                   ST. CLAIR          MI   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN/POWER OUT HATHAWAY/OAKLAND RD.
___________________________________________________________________
Rest of the week's Outlook...

Update 5/14/14; First More Rain Then the Cold as Previously Noted

Low pressure system along the cold front that pushed the cold front and severe weather through here Tuesday; has moved northeast well into Canada. However with a strong nearly parallel jet aloft along with upper level energy and copious amount of moisture, look for rain and a few embedded thunderstorms to make an appearance overnight into Thursday. Rainfall amounts of  around .50" to 1.50" will be widespread with locally higher amounts.

After our mid week rain; the much cooler air mentioned days ago in this current blog will mover into the area Thursday night through the weekend. While temperatures will drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s on the coldest early mornings (most likely Friday and Saturday morning); the highest risk of frost will be in open areas where the ground has dried out some. With the strong warm up recently and heavy rains; those factors will tend to negate frost development due to surface and below ground temperature moderation. In addition as always, cloud cover and wind will also help dictate outcome.

Still one can not rule it (patchy frost) out as the air coming across the region is notably cold for mid May. Perusing records for mid May is a help at determining what have been the worst cold snaps so late in spring. As you can see record cold lows around 30 degrees have been the lowest, while very cool afternoon highs have been in the mid to upper 40s for record low max's. I feel most of these will remain intact.

Detroit Rec       Hi's     Low Max's        Rec Low's

16	70	49	60.0	92/1962	47/1945	70/1962	32/1984	81/1962	44/1957	1.09/1945	16
17	70	50	60.0	93/1962	48/1916	67/1962	31/1973	80/1962	43/1973	1.22/1980	17
18	71	50	60.0	93/1962	48/1915	70/1962	32/1973

Flint Rec           Hi's     Low Max's         Rec Low's

16	69	45	57.0	90/1962	46/1945	65/1962	30/1921	78/1962	41/1956	2.16/1974	16
17	69	46	57.0	89/1962	47/2002	62/1999	29/1973	75/1999	41/2002	1.85/1923	17
18	69	46	58.0	90/1998	48/2002	64/1962	29/1973

Saginaw Rec    Hi's     Low Max's         Rec Low's

16	68	47	57.0	90/1962	46/1923	67/1962	32/1952	79/1962	42/1983	1.40/1923	16
17	68	47	58.0	89/1936	45/1916	63/1977	32/1983	75/1977	41/2002	1.98/1986	17
18	69	47	58.0	92/1998	49/1969	64/1971	31/1925

_______________________________________________________________



Update...5/11/14

Sunday afternoon's Severe Weather Update for Monday
 

May 11, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Updated: Sun May 11 17:30:53 UTC 2014 (Print Version |  | )

Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Probabilistic  Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions Categorical Day2 1730Z Outlook

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area SLIGHT 228,089 32,443,953 Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 111729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND CNTRL TX... ...SUMMARY... CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID MO VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM IA SWD ACROSS MO. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR NEWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/TUE FROM CHICAGO IL SWWD INTO CNTRL MO SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A POCKET OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY ACROSS LOWER MI BENEATH AN EWD MOVING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. IN RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ON THE NRN END OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DETROIT AT 21Z/MON SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND THERE IS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

Mid Week Notes Update:
NAM/Euro agree on bringing second low Pressure storm mid week on tail end of polar front; see if GFS comes arnd to this scenario with time. It would be very WET & psbly stormy again if that happened...depends how far north she pushes back up.

5/10/14__________________________________________________________
Model Guidance for the past few days has been coming together for the definite risk of severe weather early in the week; then a return to below to well below normal temperatures with another shot of polar air later in the week.

A developing low pressure system will surge warm, humid air back into the region on Monday and then; push a cold front through Southeast Lower Michigan later Tuesday.  Severe weather will likely form along and behind the warm front as the air becomes very unstable, especially if intensified by surface heating during the day. Another round of severe weather is possible Tuesday along and ahead of the cold front.

Latest trajectories of both the NAM and GFS models reflect strong instability building during the day Monday across Southern Lower Michigan, especially just west of the region. With CAPES projected of 2800j/k + and LI's in excess of -8 the dynamite will be set. Even assuming these parameters are a bit overdone, this situation needs to be watched.  Triggers for convection will be the warm and cold fronts with the system both Monday and Tuesday. While bulk shear will not be terribly strong Monday, the projected
instability may dominate decent storm development Monday; while Tuesday the jet core and bulk shear will be on our doorstep to add to the threat but it's too early for certainties.

As of now, SPC has much of Southern Lower Michigan outlooked for a slight chance of severe weather Monday into Tuesday. I wouldn't be surprised if they increased the slight risk over parts of the outlooked area to moderate,especially if the atmosphere continues to be modeled and projected this way. Keep abreast of potential severe weather information into early next week.

Monday AM - Tue AM Outlook

Updated: Sat May 10 07:22:52 UTC 2014 (Print Version |  | )

Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Probabilistic  Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions Categorical Day3 0730Z Outlook

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area SLIGHT 268,098 38,197,072 Chicago, IL...Dallas, TX...Ft. Worth, TX...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 100720 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ...SYNOPSIS... A SRN-STREAM SPEED MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LATE D2 SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG A MERIDIONAL COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH E/SEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...WITH DIFFERENCES IN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO SRN PLAINS... SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z/MON ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM WAA REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH A RESIDUAL EML PLUME LIKELY ACROSS UNDISTURBED PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO S TX. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES WITH SRN EXTENT WILL BE WEAKER AND PROBABLY CHARACTERIZED BY VEER-BACK SIGNATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS...GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. ALTHOUGH STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...SMALL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST CONVECTION WOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE AND GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE MARGINS FOR BOUTS OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL. FARTHER N FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO CNTRL GREAT LAKES...WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY HAVE DELETERIOUS EFFECTS ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. FOR NOW...WILL BROAD-BRUSH WITH LOW-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES. ..GRAMS.. 05/10/2014     After the severe weather threat leaves; another "bowling ball" mega cold vortex is  projected by most models to move over the region late in the week. This is expected  to bring below to well below normal temperatures late in the week. Look for more on the particulars of that event, in a few days. Timing of the colder weather along with  actual temperatures will become more apparent by early-mid week. Gardeners and Nurserys; stay tuned. Making weather fun while we all learn,  Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Winter of 2013-14: Worst Winter Ever Recorded In Much of Southeast Lower Michigan Also Contains Worst Winter Month - The Stats

 
This will not come as a surprise to most people who have had to endure the Winter of 2013-14, but when combining snowfall and cold temperatures for the three meteorological winter months /Dec-Feb/; the recent Winter of 2013-14 was the worst winter (or best depending on your view) experienced across metro Detroit, Flint and much of the southern two thirds of Southeast Lower Michigan (Saginaw is not included due to lower snowfall).

Winter 2013-14 Temperature Statistics

Location	Winter 2013-14	Coldest Winter Since	2013-14 Ranking	All-time Coldest
Detroit	20.9	1977-78	8th	18.8 (1903-04)
Flint	19.0	1978-79	5th	16.7 (1976-77)
Saginaw	18.2	1978-79	T-7th	15.7 (1962-63)

                                              2013-14 Seasonal Snowfall Stats 

Seasonal Normal	Winter 2013-14 (through May 5th)	Record (Year)	Seasonal Ranking
Detroit Area	42.5"	94.9"	93.6" (1880-81)	1st
Flint Area	47.4"	83.9"	82.9" (1974-75)	1st
Saginaw	45.5"	59.4"	87.2" (1966-67)	15th

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Winters in Southeast Lower Michigan
Rank	Detroit Area*				Flint Bishop**				Saginaw Area***
	Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest
	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year
1	18.8	1903-1904	36.9	1881-1882	16.7	1976-1977	33.4	1931-1932	15.7	1962-1963	33.3	1931-1932
2	19.3	1874-1875	35.7	1931-1932	17.0	1962-1963	32.2	1982-1983	16.5	1917-1918	30.9	1997-1998
3	19.7	1976-1977	35.2	1889-1890	17.8	1958-1959	31.7	2001-2002	16.6	1919-1920	30.6	2011-2012
4	19.7	1917-1918	33.8	2001-2002	18.6	1978-1979	31.3	1997-1998	17.5	1978-1979	30.5	2001-2002
5	20.4	1962-1963	33.8	1997-1998	19.0	2013-2014	31.2	2011-2012	18.0	1977-1978	30.0	1936-1937
6	20.6	1977-1978	33.0	2011-2012	19.3	1977-1978	30.3	1932-1933	18.2	1976-1977	29.6	1982-1983
7	20.8	1919-1920	32.5	1982-1983	19.8	1993-1994	29.1	1952-1953	18.2	2013-2014	29.5	1920-1921
8	20.9	2013-2014	32.5	1879-1880	19.9	1944-1945	28.8	1936-1937	18.2	1958-1959	29.0	1918-1919
9	21.0	1935-1936	32.3	1918-1919	20.9	1981-1982	28.6	1948-1949	18.7	1935-1936	28.8	1932-1933
10	21.1	1892-1893	32.2	1952-1953	21.2	1935-1936	28.5	2012-2013	19.0	1993-1994	28.5	2012-2013

Top 20 Snowiest/Snowless Seasons in Southeast Lower Michigan
Rank	Detroit Area*				Flint Bishop**				Saginaw Area***
	Snowiest		Snowless		Snowiest		Snowless		Snowiest		Snowless
	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year
1	94.9	2013-2014	13.4	1936-1937	83.9	2013-2014	10.9	1921-1922	87.2	1966-1967	7.7	1941-1942
2	93.6	1880-1881	13.7	1948-1949	82.9	1974-1975	16.0	1944-1945	83.5	1951-1952	18.5	1976-1977
3	78.9	1925-1926	15.1	1881-1882	82.8	2007-2008	16.5	1948-1949	80.0	2007-2008	20.0	1952-1953
4	74.0	1981-1982	15.2	1918-1919	78.6	1966-1967	18.5	1932-1933	79.4	2008-2009	21.0	1920-1921
5	71.7	2007-2008	15.4	1965-1966	76.6	1975-1976	20.7	1936-1937	76.2	2010-2011	21.9	1963-1964
6	69.1	1899-1900	15.8	1889-1890	75.3	1951-1952	21.5	1943-1944	75.4	2004-2005	22.7	1948-1949
7	69.1	2010-2011	16.6	1952-1953	73.0	2004-2005	21.6	1933-1934	75.0	1996-1997	23.6	1918-1919
8	67.2	1907-1908	17.1	1968-1969	72.9	1964-1965	23.4	1952-1953	68.4	1995-1996	23.8	1982-1983
9	67.2	1929-1930	18.0	1957-1958	72.8	2008-2009	24.2	1957-1958	67.2	2000-2001	23.9	1916-1917
10	65.7	2008-2009	18.0	1960-1961	72.1	2010-2011	24.4	1937-1938	65.8	1972-1973	24.3	1943-1944

No doubt about it; with an average temperature of  just 20.9 /8th coldest/ and snowfall amount of 94.9" /1st snowiest/ the Winter of  '13-14 definitely places in at the worst winter ever experienced in metro Detroit since records began in 1870 (first three years 1870-73, DAILY records are unavailable). At Flint, with a winter average temperature of 19 degrees even and snowfall of 83.9" that area too saw it's worst winter on record.

Besides having the WORST WINTER on record (snow/cold combined), during this past January, inhabitants of metro Detroit also experienced its WORST WINTER MONTH on record. The last time one of the highest snowfalls and coldest average temperature made both the coldest and snowiest MONTHS list was actually not too long ago, and it also was a January; January 2009. That January, temperatures averaged 17.3 /19th coldest month/ with 25.2" of snow...placing it at the 14th snowiest month. Even so; that pales in comparison to this past January of 2014 when temperatures averaged colder at 16.4 /11th coldest month & tied with Feb 1979/ and much more extraordinary,  the snowfall amounting to 39.1" for the month. This is the MOST snow ever recorded for Detroit in ANY month back to the 1880-81 season (which just so happened to be the snowiest winter...until this winter with 94.9" - through 5/5).

It's kinda tough to rank near the top in any winter month for both cold and snow since generally when it's very cold, normal to below normal snow falls. That's what makes January of 2014 unique!  To rank at the TOP of the highest snowfall of any January and any MONTH along with being 11th coldest since 1873; that's a lot of Januaries! Another fairly recent worst winter month for snowiest and coldest was back in December 2000 (see a trend here, more on that in Part 2) which came in the worst DECEMBER on record for combination of snow and cold. With a bitter cold average temperature of 19.3 /-9.0/ and snowfall of 25.1 in Detroit (38.8" @  DTX White Lake), that December was the 4th coldest and 3rd snowiest December...making IT the worst December winter month.

JANUARY 2014 COLD

January 2014 placed into the top 10 coldest Januarys of all time and the top 20 coldest months of all time at Detroit and Flint.

January Temperature Stats

Location	January Normal	January 2014	Coldest January Since (Year)	January 2014 Ranking	Coldest Month Since (Year)	All-Time Coldest Month Ranking
Detroit	25.6	16.4	12.8 (1977)	6th	16.3 (Feb. 1978)	T-11th
Flint	22.4	15.6	14.5 (2009)	T-7th	14.5 (Jan. 2009)	T-10th
Saginaw	22.2	16.0	14.9 (2009)	14th	14.9 (Jan. 2009)	24th

January Snowfall Stats

Location	January Normal	January 2014	Record (Year)	Needed to reach January record	All-Time Monthly Record
Detroit	12.5"	39.1"	29.6" (1978 - Old Record)	*New Record	*New Record Old record: 38.4" (Feb. 1908)
Flint	13.1"	32.9"	28.5" (1976 - Old Record)	*New Record	35.3" (Dec. 2000)
Saginaw	11.9"	15.6"	30.9" (1973)	15.3"	40.2 (Dec. 2000)

JANUARY 2014 - Detroit Record Summation
Snowiest January on record with 39.1"
Snowiest Month on record with 39.1"
6th coldest January on record at 16.4F
11th coldest (tie) month on record at 16.4F

Daily records
January 5- Record snowfall 10.2”
January 6- Record low –14F
January 6- Record snow depth 16”
January 7- Record low –14F
January 7- Record low maximum –1F
January 7- Record low mean temp –8F
January 7- Record snow depth 16”
January 8- Record snow depth 15"
January 28- Record low –10F
January 28- Record low maximum 6F
January 28- Record low mean temp –2F

Up through January of 2014; Detroit had its snowiest start to a winter on record through the end of January /31st/ while Flint sat at its 5th snowiest beginning. Much less snowfall at Saginaw left it out of this list.

Snowiest Starts to a Snow Season Through January

	Detroit	Flint
1	55.8" (2013-14)	60.1" (1975-76)
2	53.6" (1977-78)	55.4" (2008-09)
3	48.8" (2008-09)	52.6" (1951-52)
4	47.5" (1974-75)	51.5" (1966-67)
5	45.3" (1929-30)	51.4" (2013-14)

FEBRUARY - Detroit Record Summation
9th Snowiest February on record with 23.4"
15th Coldest February on record (tie) at 19.4F
First month on record to have double-digit snow depth every day

Daily records
February 2- record snow depth of 12"
February 5- record snowfall of 7.6"
February 5- record snow depth of 19"
February 6- record snow depth of 19"
February 8- record snow depth of 17"
February 9- record snow depth of 18"
February 10- record snow depth of 18"
February 11- record snow depth of 17"
February 12- record snow depth of 16"
February 13- record snow depth of 16"
February 14- record snow depth of 16"
February 15- record snow depth of 15"
February 16- record snow depth of 15"
February 17- record snowfall of 3.5"
February 17- record snow depth of 16"
February 18- record snow depth of 20"
February 19- record snow depth of 18"
February 20- record snow depth of 16"
February 21- record snow depth of 14"
February 23-28 record snow depth of 12"

MARCH - Detroit Record Summation
Daily records-
March 1- record snow depth of 12"
March 2- record snow depth of 16"
March 3- record snow depth of 15"
March 4- record snow depth of 15"
March 5- record snow depth of 15"
March 6- record snow depth of 15"
March 7- record snow depth of 14"
March 8- record snow depth of 12"
March 9- record snow depth of 12"
March 10- record snow depth of 11"
March 11- record snow depth of 8"
March 12- record snowfall of 6.6"
March 13- record low of 3F
March 13- record snow depth of 11"
March 14- record snow depth of 10"
March 26- record low of 11F

APRIL - Detroit Record Summation
Daily records
April 15- record low maximum of 33F
April 15- record snowfall of 2.6"
April 15- record snow depth of 3"

Final 2013-14 Seasonal Snowfall Stats For Southeast Lower Michigan

Seasonal Normal	Winter 2013-14 (through May 5)	Record (Year)	Seasonal Ranking
Detroit Area	42.5"	94.9"	93.6" (1880-81)	1st
Flint Area	47.4"	83.9"	82.9" (1974-75)	1st
Saginaw	45.5"	59.4"	87.2" (1966-67)	15th

Not only were the standard winter months /Dec - Feb/ brutal so too were the cold season months of November through March

Detroit 1870-2014	Cold Season (November to March) Ranking	*Ave    Temperature	Season	Remarks
	1st	24.62	1874-75
	2nd	24.92	1872-73	Daily Data N/A
	3rd	25.16	1903-04
	4th	25.46	1911-12
	5th	25.75	2013-14	Just +1.13 above coldest ever!

*Ave temperature fine tuned down to the hundredths for a finer comparison to the actual temperature for the period. Daily records of 1870-1873 are not available only monthly.

More Snowfall Stats:

Yes this past winter was the snowiest ever in Detroit and Flint. It only took 133 years to beat the original Snowiest Detroit Winter title holder, the Winter of 1880-81, ironically (or maybe not) it was Detroit's first winter that official snowfall was tallied. Maybe the weather observers realized there was a hell of a lot of snow falling that winter and decided to keep closer tabs on it ;-). The Winter of 1880-81 was also my first analogue in my issued Winter Outlook for 2013-14 back in November 2013. Flint's snow record this winter of 83.9" beat the old snowiest winter record occurring back in those "70s winters"; 1974-75 with 82.9". At the White Lake NWS Office /DTX/; a total of 87.7" of snow fell for the Winter 2013-14..not a record.

Yes this past winter was the snowiest ever in Detroit but did you also know there were;


110 consecutive days of a Trace or more of snow on the ground /Dec 9, 2013 - Mar 28, 2014/.

It was the second longest stretch recorded with the longest stretch occurring way back in our coldest winter on record; 1903-04 with 119 days /Nov 25, 1903 - Mar 22, 1904/. The former second longest stretch for a trace of snow on the ground was just a day less, 109 days back in "those 70s" winters, with 109 days /Dec 6, 1977 - Mar 24, '78/

77 consecutive days of 1" or more of snow on the ground /Dec 31, 2013 - Mar 17, 2014/.

Also the second longest stretch recorded with the longest stretch also occurred back in the Winter of 1903-04 with 81 days /Dec 12, 1903 - Mar 1, 1904/. In more recent times and the former second longest stretch with an inch or more was back again, in 1978 with 73 days in 1978 /Jan 1st - Mar 14, '78/. 

Frost/Freeze Depth in record territory

Take a look at soil temperatures for the Thumb /Cass City/...White Lake /NWS/ and Tipton /Lenawee County/. All freezing or below at the surface to 60" below late March. White Lake updates daily while Tipton & Cass City update every Monday.

                     Date      2 inch 4 inch 8 inch 20 inch 40 inch 60 inch
Tipton          Mar 31     31         32         32        32        28         28
White Lake  Apr 5       30         29         36        29        32         33
Cass City    Mar 31     25         28         28        28         M         31

Though not at Detroit, the wide range of locations both north and south of Detroit suggests record territory frost/freeze depth recorded this winter. Previous record cold frost/freeze depth was established during the cold Winter of 1962-63 in March with a depth of 30-40". Since data is scant especially in the earlier winters, the actual record depth of the frost/freeze depth is not determinable. It is reasonable to assume, however, that at least during our coldest Winter's of 1903-04 and 1874-75 (also the coldest Nov-Mar period) that the frost/freeze depth could have reached lower than this past winter's.

(All Data supplied by my own personal records, the NWS in White Lake, Mi. and Josh
 Halasy, official snowfall observer for Detroit /DTW/)

Next; 2013-2014 Worst Winter Ever Recorded In Metro Detroit Also Contains Worst Winter Month - Part II Pattern Recognition, Causes and Effects and Winter Outlook Performance 

Making weather fun while we all learn,

Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

We saw Polar Vortex In The Winter...Now we Have Mega-Vortex To Bring an Unseasonably Cool Beginning To May

Whether Polar or Mega; one word comes to peoples mind; "cool to cold weather" for the time specified and that's no different this time as an extra-ordinary large, cool upper low pressure system organizes over the Midwest and Great Lakes this week.

This is the same system that has produced the violent severe weather over the deep south over the weekend. The unseasonably deep and cool upper low pressure is in stark contrast to the warmer surface air in the south as the higher, later spring sun angle bubbles up the heat at the surface. This heat, rudely surges upward into the cool to colder upper level atmosphere, creating extreme instability along with tornadic producing wind shear. The deep upper low pressure, "mega-vortex" due to it's size, also contains a powerful jet stream aloft..more typical of late winter or early spring. A wind jet with a core of wind close to 120 miles an hour at 30, 000 ft projected by Tuesday morning, 4/29/14.

It is the combination of instability, strong jet and cold air aloft we run the risk of some strong to possibly severe weather on Tuesday. While the main action will be south of Southeast Lower Michigan, it would be wise to keep abreast to the potential for a brief  period of severe weather, mainly Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

From Severe Prediction Center...

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
   THE AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY
   CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...PRIMARILY WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE
   NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND THE SURFACE LOW
   OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY MOIST /50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOST AREAS/...COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AS
   MUCH AS 750-1000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...SOME OF THE STRONGEST LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THAT
   DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO
   /STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY/ TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

By Wednesday, the huge low pressure system stacked throughout the atmosphere will
have spun up into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Bringing cooler, wet conditions
across the region through the rest of the week. I'm keeping my eye on that colder shot of air that is projected to round the North Pole and head due south. How far south it gets will determined the frost/freeze risk into early next week. In any event, the first week of May will average cool over the region with most days, with the exception of Tuesday, temperatures climbing only into the 50s. On average the first week of May sees temperatures climb into the mid 60s with record highs flirting with 90. A bit closer to our expected weather; record lows drops into the mid 20s to around 30, while record low max's are in the upper 30s to mid 40s...lets hope we don't visit them.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Why It's a Big Deal That Half of the Great Lakes Are Still Covered in Ice & Recent April Snow

I decided to relay a very interesting article on the the effects on the cold and snowy winter of 2013-14 had (and should have) on the Great Lakes...much of it positive. What is probably the most notable is the possibility of dramatic jumps in water levels - which already are expected to rise around a foot. Note the following from the article;

"Though *Kompoltowicz says the usual March and April rise in water levels is occurring later than usual this year, already the lakes are seeing water levels that they haven't had for several years. This past March marked the first time since April of 1998 that Lake Superior had reached its long-term average. And over the next few months, melting snow will feed the lakes and colder water could lower the rates of summer and fall evaporation. The amount of rain could either add to or subtract from this total. The Army Corps of Engineers and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration generally forecast water levels six months out, and predicted levels for this September, Kompoltowicz says, range from 10 to 13 inches higher than lake levels were a year ago".

*Keith Kompoltowicz, the chief of watershed hydrology for the Army Corps of Engineers' Detroit District. The entire article can be found here.


And finally, on the subject of our recent April snow;

I think the following picture of the snow on 4/15 and the fatigued crocuses smothered in it - reflects most of the feelings of the inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan. Get Lost Winter & Bring On Spring!! LOL

Hopefully (and most likely) it was our last measurable snow on 4/15...Next Up; The Incredible Winter of 2013-14  

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

40TH Anniversary of the Tornado Super-Outbreak - April 3-4, 1974

I remember the night well, it was a Wednesday evening - April 3, 1974. Just 19 years old and going to college, I had worked the previous summer at the National Weather Service Detroit /DTW/ and was on the doorstep of my career. I had arrived home, anxious to put on my NOAA NWR (of course at time, there was no internet, no TWC - just local news which paled in comparison to today's local news stations). Our "new" NOAA Weather Radio /NWR/ was blasting the risk of severe weather along with radar summaries that were updated just once an hour. As the northern end of the severe storm complex approached; severe weather warnings were read over the NWR - KEC-63 Detroit - for the southeast corner of Lower Michigan. While extreme south-central and southeast lower Michigan was clipped by severe weather and tornadoes, by far the main show was to our south (see map) as all hell broke lose.

 

An excellent account of the Super-Outbreak can be found on Nashville's NWS site. Also, check out the re-analysis of the monstrous synoptic storm and severe weather event; Revisiting the 3–4 April 1974 Super Outbreak of Tornadoes - STEPHEN CORFIDI AND STEVEN WEISS at the NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma. I had the pleasure of working with Steve Weiss at the WSFO-DTW in 1974 during our early days in the NWS.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian