5/5/14

Winter of 2013-14: Worst Winter Ever Recorded In Much of Southeast Lower Michigan Also Contains Worst Winter Month - The Stats


 
This will not come as a surprise to most people who have had to endure the Winter of 2013-14, but when combining snowfall and cold temperatures for the three meteorological winter months /Dec-Feb/; the recent Winter of 2013-14 was the worst winter (or best depending on your view) experienced across metro Detroit, Flint and much of the southern two thirds of Southeast Lower Michigan (Saginaw is not included due to lower snowfall).

Winter 2013-14 Temperature Statistics

Location Winter 2013-14 Coldest Winter Since
2013-14 Ranking All-time Coldest
Detroit 20.9 1977-78
8th 18.8 (1903-04)
Flint 19.0 1978-79 5th 16.7 (1976-77)
Saginaw 18.2 1978-79
T-7th 15.7 (1962-63)

                                              2013-14 Seasonal Snowfall Stats 

Seasonal Normal Winter 2013-14
(through May 5th)
Record (Year) Seasonal Ranking
Detroit Area 42.5" 94.9"
93.6" (1880-81) 1st
Flint Area 47.4" 83.9"
82.9" (1974-75) 1st
Saginaw 45.5" 59.4"
87.2" (1966-67) 15th

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Winters in Southeast Lower Michigan
 
Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest Coldest Warmest
Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year Temp Year
1 18.8 1903-1904 36.9 1881-1882 16.7 1976-1977 33.4 1931-1932 15.7 1962-1963 33.3 1931-1932
2 19.3 1874-1875 35.7 1931-1932 17.0 1962-1963 32.2 1982-1983 16.5 1917-1918 30.9 1997-1998
3 19.7 1976-1977 35.2 1889-1890 17.8 1958-1959 31.7 2001-2002 16.6 1919-1920 30.6 2011-2012
4 19.7 1917-1918 33.8 2001-2002 18.6 1978-1979 31.3 1997-1998 17.5 1978-1979 30.5 2001-2002
5 20.4 1962-1963 33.8 1997-1998 19.0 2013-2014 31.2 2011-2012 18.0 1977-1978 30.0 1936-1937
6 20.6 1977-1978 33.0 2011-2012 19.3 1977-1978 30.3 1932-1933 18.2 1976-1977 29.6 1982-1983
7 20.8 1919-1920 32.5 1982-1983 19.8 1993-1994 29.1 1952-1953 18.2 2013-2014 29.5 1920-1921
8 20.9 2013-2014 32.5 1879-1880 19.9 1944-1945 28.8 1936-1937 18.2 1958-1959 29.0 1918-1919
9 21.0 1935-1936 32.3 1918-1919 20.9 1981-1982 28.6 1948-1949 18.7 1935-1936 28.8 1932-1933
10 21.1 1892-1893 32.2 1952-1953 21.2 1935-1936 28.5 2012-2013 19.0 1993-1994 28.5 2012-2013

Top 20 Snowiest/Snowless Seasons in Southeast Lower Michigan
 
Rank Detroit Area* Flint Bishop** Saginaw Area***
Snowiest Snowless Snowiest Snowless Snowiest Snowless
Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year Total Year
1 94.9 2013-2014 13.4 1936-1937 83.9 2013-2014 10.9 1921-1922 87.2 1966-1967 7.7 1941-1942
2 93.6 1880-1881 13.7 1948-1949 82.9 1974-1975 16.0 1944-1945 83.5 1951-1952 18.5 1976-1977
3 78.9 1925-1926 15.1 1881-1882 82.8 2007-2008 16.5 1948-1949 80.0 2007-2008 20.0 1952-1953
4 74.0 1981-1982 15.2 1918-1919 78.6 1966-1967 18.5 1932-1933 79.4 2008-2009 21.0 1920-1921
5 71.7 2007-2008 15.4 1965-1966 76.6 1975-1976 20.7 1936-1937 76.2 2010-2011 21.9 1963-1964
6 69.1 1899-1900 15.8 1889-1890 75.3 1951-1952 21.5 1943-1944 75.4 2004-2005 22.7 1948-1949
7 69.1 2010-2011 16.6 1952-1953 73.0 2004-2005 21.6 1933-1934 75.0 1996-1997 23.6 1918-1919
8 67.2 1907-1908 17.1 1968-1969 72.9 1964-1965 23.4 1952-1953 68.4 1995-1996 23.8 1982-1983
9 67.2 1929-1930 18.0 1957-1958 72.8 2008-2009 24.2 1957-1958 67.2 2000-2001 23.9 1916-1917
10 65.7 2008-2009 18.0 1960-1961 72.1 2010-2011 24.4 1937-1938 65.8 1972-1973 24.3 1943-1944

No doubt about it; with an average temperature of  just 20.9 /8th coldest/ and snowfall amount of 94.9" /1st snowiest/ the Winter of  '13-14 definitely places in at the worst winter ever experienced in metro Detroit since records began in 1870 (first three years 1870-73, DAILY records are unavailable). At Flint, with a winter average temperature of 19 degrees even and snowfall of 83.9" that area too saw it's worst winter on record.

Besides having the WORST WINTER on record (snow/cold combined), during this past January, inhabitants of metro Detroit also experienced its WORST WINTER MONTH on record. The last time one of the highest snowfalls and coldest average temperature made both the coldest and snowiest MONTHS list was actually not too long ago, and it also was a January; January 2009. That January, temperatures averaged 17.3 /19th coldest month/ with 25.2" of snow...placing it at the 14th snowiest month. Even so; that pales in comparison to this past January of 2014 when temperatures averaged colder at 16.4 /11th coldest month & tied with Feb 1979/ and much more extraordinary,  the snowfall amounting to 39.1" for the month. This is the MOST snow ever recorded for Detroit in ANY month back to the 1880-81 season (which just so happened to be the snowiest winter...until this winter with 94.9" - through 5/5).

It's kinda tough to rank near the top in any winter month for both cold and snow since generally when it's very cold, normal to below normal snow falls. That's what makes January of 2014 unique!  To rank at the TOP of the highest snowfall of any January and any MONTH along with being 11th coldest since 1873; that's a lot of Januaries! Another fairly recent worst winter month for snowiest and coldest was back in December 2000 (see a trend here, more on that in Part 2) which came in the worst DECEMBER on record for combination of snow and cold. With a bitter cold average temperature of 19.3 /-9.0/ and snowfall of 25.1 in Detroit (38.8" @  DTX White Lake), that December was the 4th coldest and 3rd snowiest December...making IT the worst December winter month.

JANUARY 2014 COLD

January 2014 placed into the top 10 coldest Januarys of all time and the top 20 coldest months of all time at Detroit and Flint.

January Temperature Stats

Location January Normal January 2014 Coldest January Since (Year) January 2014 Ranking Coldest Month Since (Year) All-Time Coldest Month Ranking
Detroit 25.6 16.4 12.8 (1977) 6th 16.3 (Feb. 1978) T-11th
Flint 22.4 15.6 14.5 (2009) T-7th 14.5 (Jan. 2009) T-10th
Saginaw 22.2 16.0 14.9 (2009) 14th 14.9 (Jan. 2009) 24th


January Snowfall Stats
Location January Normal January 2014 Record (Year) Needed to reach January record All-Time Monthly Record
Detroit 12.5" 39.1" 29.6" (1978 - Old Record) *New Record *New Record
Old record: 38.4" (Feb. 1908)
Flint 13.1" 32.9" 28.5" (1976 - Old Record) *New Record 35.3" (Dec. 2000)
 Saginaw 11.9" 15.6" 30.9" (1973) 15.3" 40.2 (Dec. 2000)


JANUARY 2014 - Detroit Record Summation
Snowiest January on record with 39.1"
Snowiest Month on record with 39.1"
6th coldest January on record at 16.4F
11th coldest (tie) month on record at 16.4F

Daily records
January 5- Record snowfall 10.2”
January 6- Record low –14F
January 6- Record snow depth 16”
January 7- Record low –14F
January 7- Record low maximum –1F
January 7- Record low mean temp –8F
January 7- Record snow depth 16”
January 8- Record snow depth 15"
January 28- Record low –10F
January 28- Record low maximum 6F
January 28- Record low mean temp –2F

Up through January of 2014; Detroit had its snowiest start to a winter on record through the end of January /31st/ while Flint sat at its 5th snowiest beginning. Much less snowfall at Saginaw left it out of this list.

Snowiest Starts to a Snow Season Through January

Detroit Flint
1 55.8" (2013-14) 60.1" (1975-76)
2 53.6" (1977-78) 55.4" (2008-09)
3 48.8" (2008-09) 52.6" (1951-52)
4 47.5" (1974-75) 51.5" (1966-67)
5 45.3" (1929-30) 51.4" (2013-14)


FEBRUARY - Detroit Record Summation
9th Snowiest February on record with 23.4"
15th Coldest February on record (tie) at 19.4F
First month on record to have double-digit snow depth every day


Daily records
February 2- record snow depth of 12"
February 5- record snowfall of 7.6"
February 5- record snow depth of 19"
February 6- record snow depth of 19"
February 8- record snow depth of 17"
February 9- record snow depth of 18"
February 10- record snow depth of 18"

February 11- record snow depth of 17"
February 12- record snow depth of 16"
February 13- record snow depth of 16"
February 14- record snow depth of 16"

February 15- record snow depth of 15"
February 16- record snow depth of 15"

February 17- record snowfall of 3.5"
February 17- record snow depth of 16"
February 18- record snow depth of 20"
February 19- record snow depth of 18"
February 20- record snow depth of 16"
February 21- record snow depth of 14"

February 23-28 record snow depth of 12"

MARCH - Detroit Record Summation
Daily records-
March 1- record snow depth of 12"
March 2- record snow depth of 16"

March 3- record snow depth of 15"
March 4- record snow depth of 15"

March 5- record snow depth of 15"
March 6- record snow depth of 15"
March 7- record snow depth of 14"

March 8- record snow depth of 12"
March 9- record snow depth of 12"

March 10- record snow depth of 11"
March 11- record snow depth of 8"
March 12- record snowfall of 6.6"
March 13- record low of 3F
March 13- record snow depth of 11"
March 14- record snow depth of 10"
March 26- record low of 11F


APRIL - Detroit Record Summation
Daily records
April 15- record low maximum of 33F
April 15- record snowfall of 2.6"
April 15- record snow depth of 3"

Final 2013-14 Seasonal Snowfall Stats For Southeast Lower Michigan

Seasonal Normal Winter 2013-14
(through May 5)
Record (Year) Seasonal Ranking
Detroit Area 42.5" 94.9"
93.6" (1880-81) 1st
Flint Area 47.4" 83.9"
82.9" (1974-75) 1st
Saginaw 45.5" 59.4"
87.2" (1966-67) 15th


Not only were the standard winter months /Dec - Feb/ brutal so too were the cold season months of November through March


Detroit
1870-2014
Cold Season (November to March)
Ranking
*Ave    Temperature
Season
Remarks

1st
24.62
1874-75



2nd
24.92
1872-73
Daily Data N/A

3rd
25.16
1903-04



4th
25.46
1911-12



5th
25.75
2013-14
Just +1.13 above coldest ever!


*Ave temperature fine tuned down to the hundredths for a finer comparison to the actual temperature for the period. Daily records of 1870-1873 are not available only monthly.

More Snowfall Stats:

Yes this past winter was the snowiest ever in Detroit and Flint. It only took 133 years to beat the original Snowiest Detroit Winter title holder, the Winter of 1880-81, ironically (or maybe not) it was Detroit's first winter that official snowfall was tallied. Maybe the weather observers realized there was a hell of a lot of snow falling that winter and decided to keep closer tabs on it ;-). The Winter of 1880-81 was also my first analogue in my issued Winter Outlook for 2013-14 back in November 2013. Flint's snow record this winter of 83.9" beat the old snowiest winter record occurring back in those "70s winters"; 1974-75 with 82.9". At the White Lake NWS Office /DTX/; a total of 87.7" of snow fell for the Winter 2013-14..not a record.

Yes this past winter was the snowiest ever in Detroit but did you also know there were;


110 consecutive days of a Trace or more of snow on the ground /Dec 9, 2013 - Mar 28, 2014/.

It was the second longest stretch recorded with the longest stretch occurring way back in our coldest winter on record; 1903-04 with 119 days /Nov 25, 1903 - Mar 22, 1904/. The former second longest stretch for a trace of snow on the ground was just a day less, 109 days back in "those 70s" winters, with 109 days /Dec 6, 1977 - Mar 24, '78/

77 consecutive days of 1" or more of snow on the ground /Dec 31, 2013 - Mar 17, 2014/.

Also the second longest stretch recorded with the longest stretch also occurred back in the Winter of 1903-04 with 81 days /Dec 12, 1903 - Mar 1, 1904/. In more recent times and the former second longest stretch with an inch or more was back again, in 1978 with 73 days in 1978 /Jan 1st - Mar 14, '78/. 


Frost/Freeze Depth in record territory


Take a look at soil temperatures for the Thumb /Cass City/...White Lake /NWS/ and Tipton /Lenawee County/. All freezing or below at the surface to 60" below late March. White Lake updates daily while Tipton & Cass City update every Monday.

                     Date      2 inch 4 inch 8 inch 20 inch 40 inch 60 inch
Tipton          Mar 31     31         32         32        32        28         28
White Lake  Apr 5       30         29         36        29        32         33
Cass City    Mar 31     25         28         28        28         M         31


Though not at Detroit, the wide range of locations both north and south of Detroit suggests record territory frost/freeze depth recorded this winter. Previous record cold frost/freeze depth was established during the cold Winter of 1962-63 in March with a depth of 30-40". Since data is scant especially in the earlier winters, the actual record depth of the frost/freeze depth is not determinable. It is reasonable to assume, however, that at least during our coldest Winter's of 1903-04 and 1874-75 (also the coldest Nov-Mar period) that the frost/freeze depth could have reached lower than this past winter's.

(All Data supplied by my own personal records, the NWS in White Lake, Mi. and Josh
 Halasy, official snowfall observer for Detroit /DTW/)

Next; 2013-2014 Worst Winter Ever Recorded In Metro Detroit Also Contains Worst Winter Month - Part II Pattern Recognition, Causes and Effects and Winter Outlook Performance 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

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