Also; check out these Aurora Borealis vidoes, courtesy of You Tube and The Inquisitor.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Jan 25, 2012
Strong Solar Storm Arrived Tuesday 1/24/2012...Auroral Forecast From NOAA
A strong solar storm arrived in the earth's atmosphere on Tuesday morning. An neat experimental web site from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center does an auroral forecast which displays where the Aurora Borealis (or northern lights) are expected based on solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field /IMF/.
Also; check out these Aurora Borealis vidoes, courtesy of You Tube and The Inquisitor.
Also; check out these Aurora Borealis vidoes, courtesy of You Tube and The Inquisitor.
Jan 22, 2012
Mid-Winter 2011-12 Update...What Has Been Going On and What to Expect The Remainer of The Winter
Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian Southeast Lower Michigan
1/22/2012
Well this has certainly been a difficult winter to initially forecast; then observe. Some of the main issues I stated in the Outlook and subsequent blog troublesome winter have unfortunately materialized.
From the Outlook:
The Ever Elusive NAO/AO
The other main ingredient in this winter’s weather (like any other) is of course,
the trend of the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation throughout the winter.
Of course, this is the biggest challenge to the forecast and potentially, has the
biggest bust potential. While trends with La Ninas and El Ninos are seen (and
these are not always consistent, either) the NAO is highly elusive and generally
trends are seen only a week or two out. The near term has been neutral to positive
reflecting the recent mild weather but what of the projected? Seems as though
the model ensembles are having a bit of trouble.
The first and utmost problem with this winter is one of the main issues every winter, the North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation phase. Most forecasts this winter were counting on a negative or at least neutral average of the NAO like the past several winters but this surely has not been the case. The NAO/AO has been in positive mode (sometimes strongly) since last fall. Of course when the NAO/AO is in a positive mode or phase, the real Arctic cold air remains bottled up around the polar regions and other far northern latitudes; one of the reasons why Alaska has been so cold and stormy this winter. In the strongly positive NAO/AO phase, basically the Arctic Jet stream retracts northward somewhat as it circumnavigates around the North Pole. It has been only recently where the NAO/AO has been transitioning toward a neutral or occasionally, a negative phase. It is interesting to note that the projected phase of NAO/AO is mainly neutral-negative early, then becomes quite variable again but with a subtle trend downward as of 1/21/2012. One positive note in this recent transition is the fact it does reflect the Winter Outlook's analogue's call that the second half of the winter would contain the worst of the weather: being the coldest part of the winter and back-end loaded with snowfall. Of course the obvious question that arises; will the NAO/AO trend continue?
The second reason why much of the lower 48 and Southeast Lower Michigan have been mild is also the reason Alaska has been so stormy: the strong northern Pacific Jet Stream discussed in the Outlook and later in the Troublesome Winter. This part of our Winter Outlook equation is there, in spades. The jet has been so strong, occasionally it established a strong zonal flow into the US, ironically not unlike the jet seen in moderate to strong El Ninos; just further north. The analogue projected Pacific Jet "did it's part" to verify our expected winter jet pattern but it's partner, the Arctic Jet in which phasing or pardon the expression, "mating" was routinely expected but has occurred, infrequently. Therefore, much of the country has actually experienced in my opinion a "pseudo El Nino" winter with the strong Pacific jet bringing modified air into the country. In addition, many times this strong jet off the Pacific dug into the West and actually creating ridging into the center and eastern part of the country in the absence of the Arctic Jet. This in turn; brought periods of above to well above normal temperatures. So much so, that up until recently Southeast Lower Michigan had experienced perpetually late fall-like temperatures with readings the first half of the winter averaging a good 5 degrees above normal!
Visualizing this further:
The Pacific Jet of the analogue's winter (Fig -1) upper wind pattern has been fairly accurate; while the Arctic Jet pattern has been focused further north across Alaska east into north and central Canada. It's interesting to note that between these patterns there was a notable absence of wind or "lighter wind path" west to east, across the center part of the country just north of sub-tropical jet. In the absence of the Arctic Jet, which has retreated north, one can visualize how the intense Pacific Jet would easily flood across the country in this basic analysis of the pattern (fig-2) (and remember to take into consideration the Arctic Jet being further north).
Fig -1
Fig - 2
Ok, this is the past and present; what about the future?
While we have definitely seen a pattern change of late, the NAO/AO is still in a transitioning or "unstable" pattern which has been even more erratic than usual, which makes forecasting the second half of the winter just as troublesome (or difficult) as the first. But, if you know me by my years with NWS and my Southeast Lower Michigan Outlooks (and now Weather Historian Blog), I'm not going to let a "little" adversity get in the way. If I fall on my face, so be it...it wouldn't be the first time nor the last. And, using the famous pep-talk line; "Get up and put one foot in front of the other and get on with it!" ;-)
Temperatures:
Well, obviously taking into consideration the first half of the winter, my original call of 1 to 3 degrees below normal was much too cold. Therefore, adjusting for the exceptional warmth first half of the winter (with an average departure through mid January of +5.0) , I now expect the entire winter average temperature to range 2 to 4 degrees above normal. With these departures, one would expect the second half of the winter to be colder than the first half but I still look for it to average around 1 to 3 degrees above normal.
Snowfall:
The snowfall issue was visualized and foreseen in the original Outlook:
"If the storms ride further north than expected, this could also botch up the temperature forecast too with the upper level ridge holding stronger in the Southeast."
The second quoted line here has happened and mainly due to the positive NAO/AO and subsequent retreat of the Arctic Jet. My original snowfall call here was normal to above snowfall and thus far, most areas have seen around 6-10" below normal (and one decent storm would take care of that); whereas the Saginaw Valley region has had about normal snowfall.
Taking all this into account; I look for the majority of the region to still see close to normal snowfall (within 6") but with a few areas above that mark and a few below.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Jan 18, 2012
Third Wave of Arctic Air Reinforcement to Arrive Thursday...Most Snow of the Season Thus Far Arrives Friday /Update on Actual Snowfall/
1/21/2012-
The system produced generally just 1 - 3" snowfalls across much of the region. The heavier band of snow ended up falling just south of the region across northern Indiana and Ohio where I saw heavier reports of 5 - 8" as the bulk of the moisture stayed south of our region. Another related problem here was snowflake size which was very small with the very cold air in place prior to the event. My forecast of generally 2 - 4" with areas of 3 - 5" was a bit too aggressive in this Saturday morning quarterbacking review with a 1 - 3" call better suiting the event.
Snowfall reports from NWS White Lake Mi
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Original Post
A quick third shot of Arctic air will plow through Southeast Lower Michigan Thursday. This reinforcing blast of Arctic air will be accompanied by gusty winds, snow showers and flurries. While accumulations of snow will be around an inch or less, falling temperatures and blustery winds will make for an uncomfortable January day for sure.
The better snow maker will move into Southeast Lower Michigan quickly on heels of the Thursday system during the day Friday. Our extended and now short term models have been fairly consistent with this system with its broad area of moisture, good forcing and lift which will squeeze out any available, layered moisture. While the center of the actual low pressure will be far south over the lower Ohio Valley, moisture will be flung far to the north over the Southern Great Lakes. Even though the moisture and precipitation amounts are not high with the system; they will be more than sufficient, given the dynamics of this system, to give much of the region its best snowfall of the season (considering the previous light amounts). I'm generally looking for at least 2 - 4" of snow but with higher areas of 3 - 5" possible in the heaver snow. Even scattered pockets of 6" amounts are not unreasonable given the cold air mass in place and resultant high snow to water ratios of the system. The snow to water equivalent ratios should generally fall in the 15-20 to 1. This means for every .10" of precipitation (or melted water equivalent), snowfall should range in the 1.5" to 2.0" (possibly even as high as 2.5"). There's even a slight risk of some freezing rain near the Ohio border if the warmer moist layer is flung far enough north to clip that region. This system will have to be watched for any type of path change as some of the models are beginning to hint a bit further north with the core moisture. Any updates will be issued if needed in my blog.
Needless to say driving beginning Friday afternoon into Saturday morning will become slippery and dangerous and all cautions should be exercised.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian
The system produced generally just 1 - 3" snowfalls across much of the region. The heavier band of snow ended up falling just south of the region across northern Indiana and Ohio where I saw heavier reports of 5 - 8" as the bulk of the moisture stayed south of our region. Another related problem here was snowflake size which was very small with the very cold air in place prior to the event. My forecast of generally 2 - 4" with areas of 3 - 5" was a bit too aggressive in this Saturday morning quarterbacking review with a 1 - 3" call better suiting the event.
Snowfall reports from NWS White Lake Mi
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Original Post
A quick third shot of Arctic air will plow through Southeast Lower Michigan Thursday. This reinforcing blast of Arctic air will be accompanied by gusty winds, snow showers and flurries. While accumulations of snow will be around an inch or less, falling temperatures and blustery winds will make for an uncomfortable January day for sure.
The better snow maker will move into Southeast Lower Michigan quickly on heels of the Thursday system during the day Friday. Our extended and now short term models have been fairly consistent with this system with its broad area of moisture, good forcing and lift which will squeeze out any available, layered moisture. While the center of the actual low pressure will be far south over the lower Ohio Valley, moisture will be flung far to the north over the Southern Great Lakes. Even though the moisture and precipitation amounts are not high with the system; they will be more than sufficient, given the dynamics of this system, to give much of the region its best snowfall of the season (considering the previous light amounts). I'm generally looking for at least 2 - 4" of snow but with higher areas of 3 - 5" possible in the heaver snow. Even scattered pockets of 6" amounts are not unreasonable given the cold air mass in place and resultant high snow to water ratios of the system. The snow to water equivalent ratios should generally fall in the 15-20 to 1. This means for every .10" of precipitation (or melted water equivalent), snowfall should range in the 1.5" to 2.0" (possibly even as high as 2.5"). There's even a slight risk of some freezing rain near the Ohio border if the warmer moist layer is flung far enough north to clip that region. This system will have to be watched for any type of path change as some of the models are beginning to hint a bit further north with the core moisture. Any updates will be issued if needed in my blog.
Needless to say driving beginning Friday afternoon into Saturday morning will become slippery and dangerous and all cautions should be exercised.
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Jan 12, 2012
And The Battle Is On! Round One...And Now Round Two /Update 1/15/2012/
Overall, the first wave of cold air behaved well in regards to expectations of snowfall and temperatures in my most recent blog. Generally, "one to three inches of snow" was forecast across the region Thursday night into Friday with some locally higher amounts possible. As one can see by this snow map through the 13th (courtesy of the NWS) actual snowfall pretty well fit the bill.
In addition, more snow fell behind the system on Saturday, converging in and around Wayne county with an inch or two of additional snow (and I must say; it was a beautiful scene as the nice size flakes of snow fell while walking in the local snow covered woods). So now it at least looks and feels like winter with temperatures falling off into the teens and some single figures (Sunday Jan 15th) as some breaks in the clouds allowed over the freshly snow covered landscape.
I ended the blog by writing: A second wave of Arctic air will already be charging south for round two of this winter onslaught early next week. Stay Tuned....
I also briefly stated in that blog, this next in the series of cold shots of air will be proceeded by a mild surge of air early this week with temperatures shooting back up above freezing. Latest indications are as this wave of cold air approaches late Monday night and Tuesday, some energy aloft sliding up along the cold front should enhance the rain and snow associated with it. This energy should help focus in the development of a low pressure system nearby as the front slides southeast down into our neck of the woods. In response to the upper level support, the low will deepen somewhat as it moves off to the east out over the eastern Great Lakes. Therefore, the timing of the colder air flooding into Southeast Lower Michigan behind the low on overnight Monday into Tuesday and its subsequent deepening and moisture supply will determine when the rain changes to snow scenario along with how much snow falls. At this time, it does look like some of the area will see some light measurable snow with this system with the preferred area over the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region. Temperatures under this next Arctic air mass should be at least as cold, if not a bit colder than over the weekend.
If things change appreciably with snow expectations or temperatures, I'll make note of it in my bog.
Now, reflecting back to the upper air plots I posted projected by the NCEP ensemble members last week I stated the following:
"As the two jets align and merge next week, a strong zonal flow is expected to evolve mid month over southern Canada and the northern US. Occasional ridging in the west is also projected to develop and thus, help divert and phase the Pacific air northeast into the Arctic jet over Canada. This would then create a strong west-northwest jet stream across the northern and eastern part of the country".
Another wider western view of the same time period shows this strong phasing nicely, initially over the Gulf of Alaska and additionally over North America!
Coming in the next week or so: The Mid-Winter Outlook Update
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian
____________________________________________________________
Initial Blog of January 12th
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian
In addition, more snow fell behind the system on Saturday, converging in and around Wayne county with an inch or two of additional snow (and I must say; it was a beautiful scene as the nice size flakes of snow fell while walking in the local snow covered woods). So now it at least looks and feels like winter with temperatures falling off into the teens and some single figures (Sunday Jan 15th) as some breaks in the clouds allowed over the freshly snow covered landscape.
I ended the blog by writing: A second wave of Arctic air will already be charging south for round two of this winter onslaught early next week. Stay Tuned....
I also briefly stated in that blog, this next in the series of cold shots of air will be proceeded by a mild surge of air early this week with temperatures shooting back up above freezing. Latest indications are as this wave of cold air approaches late Monday night and Tuesday, some energy aloft sliding up along the cold front should enhance the rain and snow associated with it. This energy should help focus in the development of a low pressure system nearby as the front slides southeast down into our neck of the woods. In response to the upper level support, the low will deepen somewhat as it moves off to the east out over the eastern Great Lakes. Therefore, the timing of the colder air flooding into Southeast Lower Michigan behind the low on overnight Monday into Tuesday and its subsequent deepening and moisture supply will determine when the rain changes to snow scenario along with how much snow falls. At this time, it does look like some of the area will see some light measurable snow with this system with the preferred area over the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region. Temperatures under this next Arctic air mass should be at least as cold, if not a bit colder than over the weekend.
If things change appreciably with snow expectations or temperatures, I'll make note of it in my bog.
Now, reflecting back to the upper air plots I posted projected by the NCEP ensemble members last week I stated the following:
"As the two jets align and merge next week, a strong zonal flow is expected to evolve mid month over southern Canada and the northern US. Occasional ridging in the west is also projected to develop and thus, help divert and phase the Pacific air northeast into the Arctic jet over Canada. This would then create a strong west-northwest jet stream across the northern and eastern part of the country".
It is said a picture (or two) is worth a thousand words: Take a look at the GFS projected upper wind pattern at about 39,000 FT /200 MB/ and at 18,000 Ft /500 MB/ for roughly mid week. It is easy to see the jet core here over the Northern Plains with a wind jet max of around 150 knots. The second map shows the strong Pacific and Arctic jet at the "jet stream" level of 18,000 feet /500 MB/.
Coming in the next week or so: The Mid-Winter Outlook Update
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian
____________________________________________________________
Initial Blog of January 12th
In my previous post, I displayed and discussed the NCEP model ensembles regarding the up and coming changes I expected by mid January. I gave details of these changes and the likelihood of the alignment of the jet cores in the swiftly moving Arctic and northern Pacific jet streams by next week. This, in turn would set up an ongoing battle into next week of the milder air we've become accustom to and the Arctic air hovering over Canada.
Well, the first onslaught in a series of Arctic blasts is slated to surge through the region by Friday /good 'ole Friday the 13th - so don't temp fate, watch you driving ;-)/. This "Arctic air" (and I use the word loosely since at this time of the year, it could be a lot worse) will settle in as a weekend guest. This abrupt change in air mass will be accompanied by snow showers and squalls, surely enough to leave untreated roads icy & dicey through Friday. This won't be a big system as far as snow amounts for Southeast Lower Michigan still; the system should deposit one to three inches of snow (but locally higher amounts are possible if she wraps up a bit better and is aided by Lake Huron). Much worse lake effect snow squalls are expected on the west side of the state downwind of Lake Michigan into Northern Indiana so motorists heading that-a-way should also be advised.
This "weekend guest" (or maybe it should be "pest") of snow and cold will bring the first interval of notably below normal temperatures this season, quite atypical by this time. Temperatures across Southeast Lower Michigan during the period will be mainly in the teens and 20s with some overnight lows possibly dipping into the single figures (especially with the snow cover and partial clearing). Therefore, it truly will be a shocking reminder to the inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan what season this truly is...winter. On the brighter side, it should give the winter weather enthusiast (of which I am one) something to talk about and the winter weather sport persons, something in which to be out and about.
However, as I mentioned above, she'll (after all, La Nina is running the show this winter ;-)) just be a weekend guest and will quickly scurry off to the east later Sunday and be replaced by a sharp moderating trend, in time for Martin Luther King Day.
A second wave of Arctic air will already be charging south for round two of this winter onslaught early next week. Stay Tuned....
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Jan 9, 2012
Bitter Arctic Air to Pool Over Canada Mid January
NCEP ensemble model members continue to advertise a change in the upper air pattern across the northern hemisphere in mid January. The some of the coldest air of the season is projected to relocate or "drain" from Siberia, Alaska and the Polar regions and settle east southeast over northern Canada over the weekend into next week (14th-21st). This in turn will "recharge the freezer" so to speak up in northern Canada. To check on the evolution of this projected ensemble model pattern, click here.
In addition, this air is expected to migrate south at times into the US. How far south this air is able to infiltrate the US is questionable since the northern Pacific La Nina jet stream has been strong and has acted as a door, shuting off much of the true Arctic air this season.
As the two jets align and merge next week, a strong zonal flow is expected to evolve mid month over southern Canada and the northern US. Occasional ridging in the west is also projected to develop and thus, help divert and phase the Pacific air northeast into the Arctic jet over Canada. This would then create a strong west-northwest jet stream across the northern and eastern part of the country. It is way too early to tell how much of this true Arctic air projected to pool over northern Canada will be caught up in this strong west-northwest flow and make it into Southeast Michigan. Stay Tuned...
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian
In addition, this air is expected to migrate south at times into the US. How far south this air is able to infiltrate the US is questionable since the northern Pacific La Nina jet stream has been strong and has acted as a door, shuting off much of the true Arctic air this season.
As the two jets align and merge next week, a strong zonal flow is expected to evolve mid month over southern Canada and the northern US. Occasional ridging in the west is also projected to develop and thus, help divert and phase the Pacific air northeast into the Arctic jet over Canada. This would then create a strong west-northwest jet stream across the northern and eastern part of the country. It is way too early to tell how much of this true Arctic air projected to pool over northern Canada will be caught up in this strong west-northwest flow and make it into Southeast Michigan. Stay Tuned...
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Jan 8, 2012
Oh Winter Where Art Thou??
The way things are going, pretty soon the Winter of 2011-12 will become to be known as the year without a winter. A bit exaggerated I know but the winter thus far has not only been exceptionally mild, it's been exceptionally BORING! In the first five weeks of "winter", temperatures across Southeast Michigan have averaged in the lower to mid 30s...not the highs...the averages or means. Our normal highs this time of year are generally in the lower 30s, so this is pretty much where our temperature averages have been. In the past five weeks, the high temperatures across the region have averaged around 40 degrees...give or take a degree. So, if you've thought the weather has been behaving and feeling like a "perpetual late fall", then you are right on the money. Average high temperatures across Southeast Lower Michigan late fall, say around Thanksgiving, are generally in the lower 40s.
So what gives? Did mother nature suddenly become senile lately and just forget what season we are supposed to be in? Did she fail to read the Winter Outlook and behave accordingly? You'd think so ;-). But seriously, the reasons I discussed on why we have been so mild into Christmas Day, have more or less persisted into early January. However, in that same discussion I also reasoned and explained why I expected a pattern change to commence in January. This explanation also jived well with the mild analogue Novembers I researched and posted along with the difficult winter to forecast ahead!
However, I'm not blind to the fact that the mild and lack of snow beginning of the winter will obviously affect the outcome of the winter 2011-12 statistics! Therefore, in that same vein, I will be updating my Winter Outlook within the next few weeks to account for the exceptionally mild and boring beginning. Oh, I'm not giving up on winter just yet and I believe the notable change I talked about at Christmas time is now happening, albeit slowly.
Summarizing...Mother Nature has become a pain in the Butt!
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
So what gives? Did mother nature suddenly become senile lately and just forget what season we are supposed to be in? Did she fail to read the Winter Outlook and behave accordingly? You'd think so ;-). But seriously, the reasons I discussed on why we have been so mild into Christmas Day, have more or less persisted into early January. However, in that same discussion I also reasoned and explained why I expected a pattern change to commence in January. This explanation also jived well with the mild analogue Novembers I researched and posted along with the difficult winter to forecast ahead!
However, I'm not blind to the fact that the mild and lack of snow beginning of the winter will obviously affect the outcome of the winter 2011-12 statistics! Therefore, in that same vein, I will be updating my Winter Outlook within the next few weeks to account for the exceptionally mild and boring beginning. Oh, I'm not giving up on winter just yet and I believe the notable change I talked about at Christmas time is now happening, albeit slowly.
Summarizing...Mother Nature has become a pain in the Butt!
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Dec 29, 2011
The Wild and Unprecedented Severe Weather Year of 2011 Across the US
Wettest Year on Record at Detroit and 4th Wettest at Flint (*updated 12/31-DTX)
Nearly every weather event I write about: whether past, present or future deals with its affects across Southeast Lower Michigan. While this past year was exceptional locally for: *record/near record rainfall and occasionally temperature including this past Summer of 2011 and last Winter of 2010-11, it is nothing compared to some of the the severe weather (winter and summer) that happened across the country.
The following video courtesy of PBS news gives an excellent account of the wild and wacky weather across the country in 2011. This video includes interviews with NOAA and private entity, Weather Underground. These weather extremes are sure to spark even more debate on the reasons for such weather and Global Warming, including the driving factors...man or nature or both.
Coming in January 2012:
Looking more in-depth into the "Wet Year of 2011"
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Dec 26, 2011
Developing Eastern Lakes Low Pressure to Bring Some Snow to the Area
A awkward phasing of the jet streams over the eastern Great Lakes should ramp up a storm center over that region Tuesday. For the past several runs, models have come into a general agreement on the storm. While the storm will be born over the Eastern Lakes, the worst of the system will be further east in the Northeast and New England, then later maturing over Eastern Quebec. This familiar pattern, seen with assertiveness the past several winters, has generally been shy to visit thus far this winter.
The southern jet will supply a dose of energy and most of the moisture, while the northern jet brings it's own energy kick and more important for snow, colder air. Look for the colder air to phase into the southern stream in time enough to bring some accumulating wet snow to Southeast Lower Michigan. However, with the main moisture just clipping our area along with temperatures hovering in the lower to mid 30s on Tuesday, don't look for more than a light snowfall over the region.
As temperatures fall later Tuesday and winds increase, driving could become dicier but snowfall should taper in the evening. As the storm deepens over the Northeast Tuesday night however, colder northerly winds streaming across Lake Huron will gin up snow shower activity to the lee of the lake, mainly across the Thumb.
With the absence of major snow systems this winter thus far, I look for this one to provide the most snow seen thus far, albeit light, in the 1" to possibly 3" category and the majority of that over the eastern counties. As out weather pattern picks up some steam in the fast zonal flow, a clipper or two should race across the Lakes later in the week and provide some more possible light snows.
The southern jet will supply a dose of energy and most of the moisture, while the northern jet brings it's own energy kick and more important for snow, colder air. Look for the colder air to phase into the southern stream in time enough to bring some accumulating wet snow to Southeast Lower Michigan. However, with the main moisture just clipping our area along with temperatures hovering in the lower to mid 30s on Tuesday, don't look for more than a light snowfall over the region.
As temperatures fall later Tuesday and winds increase, driving could become dicier but snowfall should taper in the evening. As the storm deepens over the Northeast Tuesday night however, colder northerly winds streaming across Lake Huron will gin up snow shower activity to the lee of the lake, mainly across the Thumb.
With the absence of major snow systems this winter thus far, I look for this one to provide the most snow seen thus far, albeit light, in the 1" to possibly 3" category and the majority of that over the eastern counties. As out weather pattern picks up some steam in the fast zonal flow, a clipper or two should race across the Lakes later in the week and provide some more possible light snows.
Dec 25, 2011
THE DR. JEKYLL / MR. HYDE WINTER OF 1899-1900
So the winter of 2011-12 thus far has been nothing to crow about, they thought the same thing back in the Winter of 1899-1900 through the end of January less snow fell /9.4"/ than thus far this winter with but then...
Take a look at the THE DR. JEKYLL / MR. HYDE WINTER OF 1899-1900 an article I wrote about during the millennium switch of 1999-2000
With all the noise and fuss about the new millennium, curiosity about the weather in Southeast Lower Michigan during the last millennial change (999-1000) and the last turn of the century (1899-1900), lead me to dust off the old weather record books for Detroit. Unfortunately (and not surprisingly), weather records are not available from the start of the current millennium, but what about the last century? What was the winter of 1899-1900, including the holiday period of Christmas into New Years Day, like? Let's journey back in time and see how the 1900's began . . .
THE DR. JEKYLL / MR. HYDE WINTER OF 1899-1900
The winter of 1899-1900 started off on a pleasant, mild and dry note with little snow. Temperatures averaged only slightly above normal in December but more so in January, despite a cold snap at the beginning and end of the month. January, in fact, averaged about five degrees above normal in Detroit. Furthermore, snowfall was only about half the average through January. By the end of January, fewer than 10 inches /9.4/ of snow fell in Detroit, which normally sees a couple of feet by this time. The majority of the storm tracks held north of Southeast Lower Michigan through midwinter, and thus, cold outbreaks and snowstorms were kept to a minimum. Yet, if the inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan thought they were going to get off easily the winter of 1899-1900, they were in for one rude awakening, as the latter half of the winter bore no resemblance to the first half.
Sharply colder weather blasted into the region late in January, pushing low temperatures down into the single digits and even below zero /-2/ by the 31st. All but the first few days of January did the temperatures averaged above or well above normal, that is, until the 26th through the 31st when they averaged better than 12 degrees below normal. Keep in mind, on the average, the second half of January is coldest period during the winter, with average temperatures in the lower 20s (highs around 30 and lows in the lower teens).
The snow-making machine shifted into high gear in February, when right off the bat a snowstorm dumped nearly a foot /10" in Detroit/ of snow across the region on the 4th. However, within a few days, the temperature soared to 62 degrees and was accompanied by nearly three quarters of an inch of rain. What had been 10 inches of snow on the ground the evening of the 4th, was a mere trace just four days later, the evening of the 8th. Colder weather returned the following day, freezing any standing water and creating numerous ice rinks. The colder weather, more or less, held for the balance of the month, along with periods of light snow. That is, until the last day (28th), when another major snowstorm hit the area. A fine, dry snow started early in the morning (2:20 AM) of the 28th and then fell heavily for most of the day. By 8 PM, thirteen inches of snow accumulated with temperatures ranging from the mid teens to mid 20s during the entire episode. At the close of February, twenty-eight inches of snow fell in Detroit for the month alone. This was nearly three times the amount measured in the winter through January and it was by no means over with yet!
The late February storm wound down on the morning of March 1st with a storm total of 14.6 inches. The busy storm track, however, held near Southeast Lower Michigan in March with still another snowstorm just three days later, on the 4th. This time, light snow moved back into the region around dawn and continued all day, again heavy at times, until ending at dusk. About six and a half /6.6/ inches fell during the day along with temperatures falling from 33 degrees at 2 PM, down to 12 degrees at midnight. By this time, a snow depth of nearly 17 inches was observed. And, while winter should have been ending, it was in reality, just beginning.
A little over 24 hours later (during the forenoon hours of the 5th), snow once again began in earnest and continued falling, moderate to heavy, all day. The temperature fell to a low of 7 degrees at 5 AM that morning just before the snow began, but never recovered during the day until the evening, when it rose through the teens. By 8 PM, another nine and a half inches of snow had inundated the area with 26 inches of snow measured on the ground. This 26-inch snow depth is the highest official snow depth ever recorded in Detroit. After the snow depth was measured (8 PM), the snow became mixed with, and then changed to sleet which continued falling until l2:30 AM on the 6th, when it changed to freezing rain. Still, another 3.5 inches of snow and sleet fell from 8 PM until the change over to freezing rain, giving a grand total of 19.6 inches for the three-day period. Also, with the additional 3.5 inches snow that fell, the snow depth probably ranged somewhere in the neighborhood of 28 inches (accounting for some settling and sleet), though no official maximum snow depth was mentioned. In fact, in that week period (Feb. 28th-Mar. 6th), more than 34 /34.2/ inches of snow fell on Downtown Detroit! This snowfall nearly equals the second most snow ever recorded for a MONTH in Detroit, which was during the snowy La Nina December of 1974 when 34.9 inches fell. Also, it is only about eight inches shy of the normal snowfall seen in an ENTIRE winter season /42 inches/.
Needless to say, travel by street car, railroad, horseback, river ferry or just plain walking was a monumental chore. In one note, it was mentioned that it took fours hours for a street car to travel from Downtown Detroit to Trenton (a nearby suburb of Detroit) and back, a trip that usually took an hour and a half with stops along the way. Several street cars burned out their motors trying to plow through incredible amounts of snow. The temperature continued to rise rapidly from the 18 degrees recorded at midnight on the 6th, to an almost springlike 42 degrees just six hours later at 6 AM. This 24 degree rise in temperature was a result of warmer air surging into the area from the south. With the temperatures holding in the lower to mid 40s into early afternoon, the heavy snow cover soon started to become an extremely slushy mess. By 8 PM on the 6th, the snow pack had melted down to 18 inches, dropping better than10 inches in less than 24 hours. Then, by midnight, the temperature fell below freezing to 23 degrees. This created more headaches for travelers with huge blocks of frozen slush and ice and thus, made navigation even more difficult and hazardous.
Temperatures continued to average well below normal into mid month and on St. Patrick's Day, the mercury plummeted to a record low of -2 ( Irish coffee was probably in high demand this St. Patrick's Day). If this weren't bad enough, the snow machine once again cranked daily from the 15th through the 18th, when nearly seven more inches of snow fell. The intra-month period of February 22nd-March 21st may very well have been Detroit's snowiest month /28-day/ time period. Exactly 44 inches of snow fell during that time, this handily beats out the CALENDAR month record for most snow, 38.4 inches, which occurred just eight years later in February 1908 and is also a few inches higher than the average snowfall /42 inches/ for an ENTIRE winter season.
A slow moderation in temperatures took hold during the latter half of the month. Even so, March of 1900 still ranks as the 3rd coldest March (tied with March 1885 and 1960) in Detroit since 1870. And not surprising, with the 30.2 inches of snow that fell during the month, March of 1900 is the snowiest March ever recorded (February of 1900 is the 4th snowiest February). Snow also made an appearance in April /1.5 inches/ and even in May with a trace on May 4th. So, despite the meager snowfall the first half of the winter, the snow that fell the second half more than made up for the deficiency. The total snowfall for the 1899-1900 season was 69.1 inches, which ranks as the fourth snowiest winter season in Detroit since 1880.
CHRISTMAS WEEK 1899 Christmas Eve 1899 began on a relatively benign weather note across Southeast Lower Michigan. A little light rain changed over to light snow during the evening with just three tenths /.3/ falling by midnight. Not quite enough to make it an official white Christmas (five tenths /.5/ or better of snow is needed on the ground) and only a trace fell on Christmas. By the looks of the temperatures, a cold front must have pushed through the area during the daytime hours of Christmas Eve. The temperature reached 34 degrees during the afternoon on Christmas Eve but then fell to 17 degrees by the midnight hour. In addition, that 17 degree reading at midnight was the HIGH temperature for Christmas Day with temperatures steady to slowly falling until bottoming out at 11 above. In spite of being chilly, Christmas Eve into Christmas Day in 1899 were, for the most part, cloudy non-eventful days, meteorologically speaking, with no big storms in sight.
The most obvious trend the last week of 1899 (see Chart-1) was the turn toward colder conditions, but with negligible precipitation (traces of snow). As the week drew to a close, lows were generally in the single digits with an actual "goose-egg" /0F/, reported on the morning of the 30th. Sky condition ranged from partly cloudy to cloudy, so there were periods of sunshine.
NEW YEARS EVE - DAY 1899-1900
Snow flurries fell virtually all of New Years Eve until shortly after the stroke of midnight (12:15 AM) but with only a trace accumulation. The sky remained cloudy New Years Eve into very early morning hours of New Years Day, until around 3 AM, when the sky cleared, allowing for a clear sunrise New Years Day. The morning low of 5 above was accompanied by only a trace of snow on the ground.
The first day of 1900 was cold, but relatively nice across Southeast Lower Michigan. Under partly sunny skies with a few flurries, the temperature crept up to only 19 degrees and the mean temperature of 14 degrees, averaged out to 17 degrees below normal.
Take a look at the THE DR. JEKYLL / MR. HYDE WINTER OF 1899-1900 an article I wrote about during the millennium switch of 1999-2000
" PARTY LIKE ITS . . . 1899"
Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian Southeast Michigan 12/99With all the noise and fuss about the new millennium, curiosity about the weather in Southeast Lower Michigan during the last millennial change (999-1000) and the last turn of the century (1899-1900), lead me to dust off the old weather record books for Detroit. Unfortunately (and not surprisingly), weather records are not available from the start of the current millennium, but what about the last century? What was the winter of 1899-1900, including the holiday period of Christmas into New Years Day, like? Let's journey back in time and see how the 1900's began . . .
THE DR. JEKYLL / MR. HYDE WINTER OF 1899-1900
The winter of 1899-1900 started off on a pleasant, mild and dry note with little snow. Temperatures averaged only slightly above normal in December but more so in January, despite a cold snap at the beginning and end of the month. January, in fact, averaged about five degrees above normal in Detroit. Furthermore, snowfall was only about half the average through January. By the end of January, fewer than 10 inches /9.4/ of snow fell in Detroit, which normally sees a couple of feet by this time. The majority of the storm tracks held north of Southeast Lower Michigan through midwinter, and thus, cold outbreaks and snowstorms were kept to a minimum. Yet, if the inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan thought they were going to get off easily the winter of 1899-1900, they were in for one rude awakening, as the latter half of the winter bore no resemblance to the first half.
Sharply colder weather blasted into the region late in January, pushing low temperatures down into the single digits and even below zero /-2/ by the 31st. All but the first few days of January did the temperatures averaged above or well above normal, that is, until the 26th through the 31st when they averaged better than 12 degrees below normal. Keep in mind, on the average, the second half of January is coldest period during the winter, with average temperatures in the lower 20s (highs around 30 and lows in the lower teens).
The snow-making machine shifted into high gear in February, when right off the bat a snowstorm dumped nearly a foot /10" in Detroit/ of snow across the region on the 4th. However, within a few days, the temperature soared to 62 degrees and was accompanied by nearly three quarters of an inch of rain. What had been 10 inches of snow on the ground the evening of the 4th, was a mere trace just four days later, the evening of the 8th. Colder weather returned the following day, freezing any standing water and creating numerous ice rinks. The colder weather, more or less, held for the balance of the month, along with periods of light snow. That is, until the last day (28th), when another major snowstorm hit the area. A fine, dry snow started early in the morning (2:20 AM) of the 28th and then fell heavily for most of the day. By 8 PM, thirteen inches of snow accumulated with temperatures ranging from the mid teens to mid 20s during the entire episode. At the close of February, twenty-eight inches of snow fell in Detroit for the month alone. This was nearly three times the amount measured in the winter through January and it was by no means over with yet!
The late February storm wound down on the morning of March 1st with a storm total of 14.6 inches. The busy storm track, however, held near Southeast Lower Michigan in March with still another snowstorm just three days later, on the 4th. This time, light snow moved back into the region around dawn and continued all day, again heavy at times, until ending at dusk. About six and a half /6.6/ inches fell during the day along with temperatures falling from 33 degrees at 2 PM, down to 12 degrees at midnight. By this time, a snow depth of nearly 17 inches was observed. And, while winter should have been ending, it was in reality, just beginning.
A little over 24 hours later (during the forenoon hours of the 5th), snow once again began in earnest and continued falling, moderate to heavy, all day. The temperature fell to a low of 7 degrees at 5 AM that morning just before the snow began, but never recovered during the day until the evening, when it rose through the teens. By 8 PM, another nine and a half inches of snow had inundated the area with 26 inches of snow measured on the ground. This 26-inch snow depth is the highest official snow depth ever recorded in Detroit. After the snow depth was measured (8 PM), the snow became mixed with, and then changed to sleet which continued falling until l2:30 AM on the 6th, when it changed to freezing rain. Still, another 3.5 inches of snow and sleet fell from 8 PM until the change over to freezing rain, giving a grand total of 19.6 inches for the three-day period. Also, with the additional 3.5 inches snow that fell, the snow depth probably ranged somewhere in the neighborhood of 28 inches (accounting for some settling and sleet), though no official maximum snow depth was mentioned. In fact, in that week period (Feb. 28th-Mar. 6th), more than 34 /34.2/ inches of snow fell on Downtown Detroit! This snowfall nearly equals the second most snow ever recorded for a MONTH in Detroit, which was during the snowy La Nina December of 1974 when 34.9 inches fell. Also, it is only about eight inches shy of the normal snowfall seen in an ENTIRE winter season /42 inches/.
Needless to say, travel by street car, railroad, horseback, river ferry or just plain walking was a monumental chore. In one note, it was mentioned that it took fours hours for a street car to travel from Downtown Detroit to Trenton (a nearby suburb of Detroit) and back, a trip that usually took an hour and a half with stops along the way. Several street cars burned out their motors trying to plow through incredible amounts of snow. The temperature continued to rise rapidly from the 18 degrees recorded at midnight on the 6th, to an almost springlike 42 degrees just six hours later at 6 AM. This 24 degree rise in temperature was a result of warmer air surging into the area from the south. With the temperatures holding in the lower to mid 40s into early afternoon, the heavy snow cover soon started to become an extremely slushy mess. By 8 PM on the 6th, the snow pack had melted down to 18 inches, dropping better than10 inches in less than 24 hours. Then, by midnight, the temperature fell below freezing to 23 degrees. This created more headaches for travelers with huge blocks of frozen slush and ice and thus, made navigation even more difficult and hazardous.
Temperatures continued to average well below normal into mid month and on St. Patrick's Day, the mercury plummeted to a record low of -2 ( Irish coffee was probably in high demand this St. Patrick's Day). If this weren't bad enough, the snow machine once again cranked daily from the 15th through the 18th, when nearly seven more inches of snow fell. The intra-month period of February 22nd-March 21st may very well have been Detroit's snowiest month /28-day/ time period. Exactly 44 inches of snow fell during that time, this handily beats out the CALENDAR month record for most snow, 38.4 inches, which occurred just eight years later in February 1908 and is also a few inches higher than the average snowfall /42 inches/ for an ENTIRE winter season.
A slow moderation in temperatures took hold during the latter half of the month. Even so, March of 1900 still ranks as the 3rd coldest March (tied with March 1885 and 1960) in Detroit since 1870. And not surprising, with the 30.2 inches of snow that fell during the month, March of 1900 is the snowiest March ever recorded (February of 1900 is the 4th snowiest February). Snow also made an appearance in April /1.5 inches/ and even in May with a trace on May 4th. So, despite the meager snowfall the first half of the winter, the snow that fell the second half more than made up for the deficiency. The total snowfall for the 1899-1900 season was 69.1 inches, which ranks as the fourth snowiest winter season in Detroit since 1880.
CHRISTMAS WEEK 1899 Christmas Eve 1899 began on a relatively benign weather note across Southeast Lower Michigan. A little light rain changed over to light snow during the evening with just three tenths /.3/ falling by midnight. Not quite enough to make it an official white Christmas (five tenths /.5/ or better of snow is needed on the ground) and only a trace fell on Christmas. By the looks of the temperatures, a cold front must have pushed through the area during the daytime hours of Christmas Eve. The temperature reached 34 degrees during the afternoon on Christmas Eve but then fell to 17 degrees by the midnight hour. In addition, that 17 degree reading at midnight was the HIGH temperature for Christmas Day with temperatures steady to slowly falling until bottoming out at 11 above. In spite of being chilly, Christmas Eve into Christmas Day in 1899 were, for the most part, cloudy non-eventful days, meteorologically speaking, with no big storms in sight.
The most obvious trend the last week of 1899 (see Chart-1) was the turn toward colder conditions, but with negligible precipitation (traces of snow). As the week drew to a close, lows were generally in the single digits with an actual "goose-egg" /0F/, reported on the morning of the 30th. Sky condition ranged from partly cloudy to cloudy, so there were periods of sunshine.
| CHRISTMAS WEEK 1899-1900 (DEC. 25TH - JAN. 1ST) | |||||
| Date | High | Low | Precip. | Snowfall | Sky Cover |
| 12/25/1899 | 17 | 11 | T | T | Cloudy |
| 12/26/1899 | 18 | 9 | T | T | Ptcldy |
| 12/27/1899 | 20 | 12 | T | T | Ptcldy |
| 12/28/1899 | 20 | 10 | 0.01 | 0.1 | Ptcldy |
| 12/29/1899 | 14 | 6 | T | T | Ptcldy |
| 12/30/1899 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Ptcldy |
| 12/31/1899 | 12 | 4 | T | T | Cloudy |
| 01/01/1900 | 19 | 5 | T | T | Ptcldy |
NEW YEARS EVE - DAY 1899-1900
Snow flurries fell virtually all of New Years Eve until shortly after the stroke of midnight (12:15 AM) but with only a trace accumulation. The sky remained cloudy New Years Eve into very early morning hours of New Years Day, until around 3 AM, when the sky cleared, allowing for a clear sunrise New Years Day. The morning low of 5 above was accompanied by only a trace of snow on the ground.
The first day of 1900 was cold, but relatively nice across Southeast Lower Michigan. Under partly sunny skies with a few flurries, the temperature crept up to only 19 degrees and the mean temperature of 14 degrees, averaged out to 17 degrees below normal.
In addition, Check out my post below on a possible change in the current weather pattern across the country into early-mid January
Benign Weather Pattern to Become More Active as 2011 Bids Adeiu?
Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian 12/25/2011
No one can deny the Winter of 2011-12 has been off to a very slow start with generally mild weather and just spurts of light snow, hardly worth mentioning. The main culprit has been the one thing mentioned in the Outlook that is elusive and problematic in forecasting. I also briefly mentioned it in a recent article and I would discuss the phenomena that can make or break a forecast, the NAO/AO. And, more to the point this culprit, the NAO/AO, has been almost exclusively positive for several weeks which has resulted in a very mild beginning to the Winter of 2011-12.
From the Outlook:
The other main ingredient in this winter’s weather (like any other) is of course, the trend of the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation throughout the winter. Of course, this is the biggest challenge to the forecast and potentially, has the biggest bust potential. While trends with La Ninas and El Ninos are seen (and these are not always consistent, either) the NAO is highly elusive and generally trends are seen only a week or two out. Generally, our colder winters in the study reflect a predominately negative NAO.
By the recent data, the positive trace of the AO and NAO is easy to see on this graph. The Arctic Oscillation has been pretty much exclusively positive the past three months, while the broader NAO has been mainly positive to occasional neutral during the same time period. Basically, the bitter cold Arctic air has been held further north than it's usual position as the jet stream has been contracted closer to the Pole. I like to use the analogy the freezer door has been basically slammed shut with just the occasional brief opening to let out a bit of frosty cold. This type of pattern results in a nicely charged bitter cold Arctic air mass up further north that only gets fully re-charged as the winter drags on.
It is also discernible by the ensemble model graph projections, that the oscillations are projected to slowly fall toward a weakly positive or even neutral stance in the next week or two. The problems interpreted here are two fold, one: are the projections correct and two: what will be the outcome? The first is the most important as far as a possible change in the offing. The ensemble members have been gradually intimating a gradual breakdown in the stubbornly positive stance of the NAO/AO for several days now, but is it believable? At this point, I feel a gradual weakening is likely, at least enough to bring a more active pattern across the country. I've noted many times in the past when the NAO/AO drifted toward a neutral stance after being in a substantially positive or negative mode, the storm track became active. Simply put, this change indicates the dominant air masses across the northern hemisphere are about to get more "mixed or stirred up". In the case of going from positive to a neutral or negative phase, the Arctic intrusions dig more substantially south and thus, create more storm development.
In our present case, the mild temperate weather has held sway for much of December with only weak intrusions of Polar air masses. With this type of change projected, albeit it may be somewhat subtle, it should stir up the atmosphere up enough to at least get more action. Where and what the main action will be will be followed closely to relate in my blog. Stay Tuned.
Coming in January 2012:
Looking more in-depth into the "Wet Year of 2011"
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
No one can deny the Winter of 2011-12 has been off to a very slow start with generally mild weather and just spurts of light snow, hardly worth mentioning. The main culprit has been the one thing mentioned in the Outlook that is elusive and problematic in forecasting. I also briefly mentioned it in a recent article and I would discuss the phenomena that can make or break a forecast, the NAO/AO. And, more to the point this culprit, the NAO/AO, has been almost exclusively positive for several weeks which has resulted in a very mild beginning to the Winter of 2011-12.
From the Outlook:
The Ever Elusive NAO/AO
By the recent data, the positive trace of the AO and NAO is easy to see on this graph. The Arctic Oscillation has been pretty much exclusively positive the past three months, while the broader NAO has been mainly positive to occasional neutral during the same time period. Basically, the bitter cold Arctic air has been held further north than it's usual position as the jet stream has been contracted closer to the Pole. I like to use the analogy the freezer door has been basically slammed shut with just the occasional brief opening to let out a bit of frosty cold. This type of pattern results in a nicely charged bitter cold Arctic air mass up further north that only gets fully re-charged as the winter drags on.
It is also discernible by the ensemble model graph projections, that the oscillations are projected to slowly fall toward a weakly positive or even neutral stance in the next week or two. The problems interpreted here are two fold, one: are the projections correct and two: what will be the outcome? The first is the most important as far as a possible change in the offing. The ensemble members have been gradually intimating a gradual breakdown in the stubbornly positive stance of the NAO/AO for several days now, but is it believable? At this point, I feel a gradual weakening is likely, at least enough to bring a more active pattern across the country. I've noted many times in the past when the NAO/AO drifted toward a neutral stance after being in a substantially positive or negative mode, the storm track became active. Simply put, this change indicates the dominant air masses across the northern hemisphere are about to get more "mixed or stirred up". In the case of going from positive to a neutral or negative phase, the Arctic intrusions dig more substantially south and thus, create more storm development.
In our present case, the mild temperate weather has held sway for much of December with only weak intrusions of Polar air masses. With this type of change projected, albeit it may be somewhat subtle, it should stir up the atmosphere up enough to at least get more action. Where and what the main action will be will be followed closely to relate in my blog. Stay Tuned.
Coming in January 2012:
Looking more in-depth into the "Wet Year of 2011"
Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)