It always amazes me when discoveries in meteorological science is written and discussed only to be tried numerous times to see how the results pan-out.
Earlier I brought up several hemispheric evolutions unfolding for February 2025 that have research backed studies. Some are more theory driven while being new aspects of the meteorology are discovered as we advance in the field.
Stratospheric warming/moderation - Re-establishment of Polar Vortex
MJO Evolution into Optimate Phases
The GEFS MJO projection moves into and thru Phase 7, Phase 8 into Phase 1 by 2/24/25. The EURO MJO extends out further and also moves along and thru Phase 7, 8 and into Phase 1 by the 24th. Then; from there it advances thru Phase 1, 2 and enters Phase 3 while weakening the effects by 3/1/25.
Upper Wind/Jet Stream
300 MB JET - Until Mon 2/24/25
Initially as of 2/15/25; the Polar Vortex drops into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes this upcoming week (2/17/25 - 2/22/25) briefly relaxing to a more zonal flow only to recharge into another trough the second week. Of course, this will update as later data is fed into the model but this is the way GFS model is projecting the jet stream.
There
is a decent chance the upcoming week will be the "bowels of the winter
cold" with the fresh snow cover and Arctic cold sliding in and temperatures at
7am each morning may not be actual lows. Just the models idea of the cold mornings expected this week before moderating on the weekend. Another storm to watch will be the one moving through the Gulf states/Ohio Valley again mid week. Thus far; models keep that impulse for development further south and to the East Coast.
Making weather fun while we all
learn,
Bill Deedler
- SEMI_WeatherHistorian
No comments:
Post a Comment