SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WINTER OUTLOOK 2025-26
Temperatures:
Both this set of winter's set of analogues and extended model monthly guidance for December spell out a colder beginning of winter than average; especially the early part of the winter. Analogues paint a cold picture for December, contrasting the recent pictures in Southeast Michigan Inhabitant's minds of numerous mild Decembers since 2000 (see rest of Outlook). While a milder mid December is expected to break the cold snap - latest guidance strongly backs up a below normal average December temperature on the whole with colder weather returning, later.
Analogues for the rest of the winter at this early juncture do intimate a mid winter thaw (most likely our old friend "January Thaw") and another milder period possibly in February (mid-late) but surrounded by cold. Overall temperatures should average 1-3 degrees below normal but subject to change with the aggressive, fast moving winter patterns expected. Dominant periods of cold should be tempered by quick milder air masses. Timing of the patterns will be as much of an issue as much as the expected winter weather in the final analysis.
Snowfall and Precipitation:
Snowfall and precipitation is a big toss-up this year with not only mixed precipitation goofing things up but storm tracks being rather fickle. Someone's going to get clobbered when upper energy phases (as the Arctic Stream, Polar Jet and Sub-tropical vying for dominance) but who & when is the question? Looking at what's briefly transpired; Lake Effect communities, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes look primed but what of the rest of the winter? If La Nina follows a general pattern; the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley look vulnerable, anytime. Stay Tuned. As for now; near normal or average snow for Southeast Michigan but subject to change with the wind.
AN OBSERVATION -
Never have I seen so many Winter Outlooks on the Net as I have seen this fall - and never have so many of them been so dire. Dire meaning; calling for a brutally cold and/or stormy winter across the Great Lakes and subsequent surrounding areas. It seems everyone and their mother are doing Winter Outlooks - whether qualified or not (educated and experienced). I must say; when I started doing Season Outlooks for Southeast Lower Michigan while employed by the National Weather Service some 27 years ago (The Super El Nino of 1997-98), I was in barren territory. The only other creators of Outlooks that I saw were the NWS Climate Prediction Center for the whole country and maybe a scant few private companies. A few surrounding WSFO meteorologists starting joining me in Weather Outlooks in the late 90s - early 2000s in the Great Lakes Region as "Down-scaling" got underway. Down-scaling involved looking at familiar hemispheric patterns known at the time; researched by meteorologists and climatologists nationally then, subsequently studying smaller climate and local patterns and making a winter forecast.
FORMAT -
A new format? I've decided to split up my outlook to get my Winter Analogues out first /Part - 1/; then discuss how the hemispheric patterns should affect the up-coming Winter 2025-26 pattern /Part -2/. Finally; expected winter weather forecast discussed and final forecast issued after Thanksgiving. Basically, this will be during the month of November and into the climatological winter period of December - February. Snowfall projections will be for entire snowfall season into climatological spring. Lastly; Look for Model Outlooks for the Winter.
WINTER 2025 - 26 ANALOGUES
This new set of analogues goes back to the mid 20th century. Gone for this run are the earlier analogues (pre-1940s) as many were during cold periods with lower actual temperature data and normals. Over the past several decades (mainly since the 1980s); average normals have risen about a degree and a half with time when combining the recent climatological warming period along with the urban climate warming at Detroit /DTW Airport/. For example; the winter normal average temperature is now 28.3 degrees for the 30 year period from 1991-2020. The 100 year temperature average /1891-1990/ before that time by my estimation was about 26.9 degrees. That leaves approximated departure of around a degree and a half /+1.4/ and that 100 year average is also included in the analogue data chart.
Leaving out the "colder period" analogues pre-1940 made little difference in this winter's sample as the temperature analogues since those analogues averaged notably below normal, anyway.
Snowfall and Precipitation meanwhile varied considerably and really are a factor of prevailing storm tracks. Snowfalls varied from 18.0" /1960-61/ to a whopping 94.9" during the relatively recent cold and snowy winter of 2013-14. Maybe it's not surprising the "average" snowfall for the entire set landed just a shade (of snowfall) above the 45.0"norm at 45.6". Overall; snowfall norms have been rising slowly the past several decades from the mid-upper 30s to the mid 40s. You wouldn't know that the past three winters with the below average snowfalls officially at Detroit /DTW/. Troublesome this season as mention above is the extreme snowfall brackets from well below normal to well above - "relinquishing to normal". Overall, below normal precipitation was dominant when averaged however; there were 4 better than an inch below normal, 3 better than an inch above and 5 within an inch of normal - really split. But in that case, around normal precipitation is the dominant (and again, that would be within an inch of normal). After looking at the analogue winters; Lake-effect snows across the Great Lakes should be relatively active seeing the cold, blustery conditions predominant in several of the early - mid winters/cold time periods.
Predominant Storm Tracks have made themselves known early in the game this winter by starting out solidly in November. This is reflective of the lower heights (and jet streams). Even the more infrequent "Gulf Low" (non-predominant) is occasionally showing up on model output and I suspect we'll see some action there too. The winter is starting out busy but we will surely get breaks and the occasional mild spells.
Snowfalls in the analogues over Southeast Michigan were nearly on the same level as precipitation; 6 analogues were below normal, 4 above and 3 within 5.0"of normal. While there's a bit of a lean toward below normal snow in the actual numbers - at the same time, 4 were snowy and 3 contained normal snow winters - so it's pretty much a toss-up. There is a slight preference for the higher totals for the northern and western sections in Southeast Michigan this winter (more typical). This includes the northern and western parts of Metro Detroit.
Another interesting thing I noticed in the data from the Novembers preceding many of the analogues (including Nov '25), they contained the predominance of normal to below normal temperatures. When normal to below normal November temperatures dominated in the analogues; the winter temperature were below normal. Even two of the November's; 1960 and 1985 that contained above normal temperatures still were followed by colder winters!
Observing the Temperature Departure Map below when all analogues were plotted; below normal temperature departures of -2.0 to -3.0 degrees were observed on average. Be advised: these are past analogue winters and do not necessarily reflect exactly this upcoming cold season. I'm more interested at not the particular data for each analogue but the overall trend (and even when widely variable, do have dominating patterns discussed in this Outlook).
Analogue 2025-26 Cold Season November through March Temperature Departure
Next up: Hemispheric Patterns & Meteorological Set Up - Winter Update Part II
Hemispheric Discussion
In case you haven't surmised by now; the upcoming winter is expected to be, like last winter, a La Nina winter but with the La Nina fading early in 2026. Therefore; we are at the present at this winter's La Nina peak (late November into December). Both La Nina's are generally similar in strength, both a weak La Nina. I do look for this year's La Nina to have more of an influence on our weather than last winter's; mainly due to the atmosphere's stronger resultant La Nina pattern reaction (not dominant last winter) along with the Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation in place.Here are the Hemispheric SST temperatures at the close of November 2025
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The maturing weak La Nina shows up well of the coast off Northern South America extending due west across the Pacific. The La Nina boundary below normal temperatures are displayed throughout all areas: Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4 and Nino 4. In addition; the Negative (Cold) PDO is well established again off the West Coast like 2017.
The best likeness of this fall's SST pattern that I could find in the analogue's was indeed; the La Nina of 2017-18. The cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation /PDO/ was also on full display that year also. The Atlantic SST's were generally not as warm in 2017 as this late fall, however along the East Coast there are pockets of mixed above and below SST's this late November as opposed to 2017.
La Nina 2025-26
As one can see; the La Nina of 2017-18 extended through the winter and into the early spring of 2018 unlike this season of 2025-26 when the La Nina is expected to wind down earlier during mid winter. See the data from the ENSO SST's below from the two time periods 2017-2018 and 2025:
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Another similar La Nina SST forming from a Neutral SST was just last year /Winter of 2024-25/. While this analogue La Nina too shows similar traits - there were differences. The La Nina was slower to form and remained very weak dropping to just a SST of -0.6C in January. The winter pattern of 2024-25 over Southeast Lower Michigan was very slow to evolve, unlike this winter. January and February were colder with below normal temperatures with just light amounts of snow through the season. The "real winter months" last winter - like many of the past numerous winters were January, February and March. A cold December has become more of a rarity. In this millennium, since the Winter of 2000 - out of 25 - a generous 17 Decembers have been warmer than normal with the past 8 all above normal!
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North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation - NAO/AO
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As of December 1st - The projected NAO/AO winter model from -
https://www.kylemacritchie.com/ - An intriguing scientist Kyle Macritchie; shows the phases expected for the NAO and AO. It should be noted this too is subject to change as new data is received and processed. While the NAO meanders in it's negative/positive phases, the AO is predominantly projected to be in a negative phase. Supporting a colder than normal winter for the region.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation /PDO/ and associated subset EPO
A cool phase of the PDO is represented on the right of the following example and compare it to the current state on the Pacific SST's.
http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/pdotrend.htm
SOLAR CYCLE /SC/
Solar cycle actual effects on short term weather and longer term climate variability remain a controversial subject. I've read several articles which support or are against their shorter term winter relevancy. Some theorize that both natural solar cycles and man's influence affect our climate. I am in favor of the solar cycle being somewhat relevant and sometimes giving the present winter cycle a "little kick" in regard to hemispheric wind flow patterns and resulting temperatures. Numerous recent studies for example, do in fact make the connection to our climate and solar activity including wintertime effects. One of the studies stated the following:
Sirocko et al. (2012) recently reached the same con-
See analogues and Solar Cycles abbreviated on the Winter Analogue chart. It look's as though with a decreasing solar cycle beginning from the maximum cycle; the solar cycle will continue to have more to do with disrupting the communication factor and ignite the northern lights again.
THE QBO INFLUENCE
Next - What do the Models say about the Winter? AI?
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian
