7/10/23

Fluctuating Warm-Cool Temperatures Indicate Normal - Slightly Below Temperatures; While Normal To Drier Than Average Weather Dominates Summer Analogues

Notes for Neutral - El Nino Summer of '23

Prevailing analogues indicate normal temperatures (within a degree of normal in Southeast Lower Michigan), while 4 summers averaged below normal (more than a degree below) and 2 summers averaging above normal (more than a degree above normal. 

Upper wind flow/jets were dominated by ridging across the Midwest northward into Canada, shifting across the country from the Great Lakes to the Western US/Canada with the dominance from Mid-West northward into Canada west into the Western US.

Drier than normal (more than an inch below) prevailed in 7 summers out of 11. Average departure was nearly two inches below normal with the entire sample of 11. Normal rainfall fell in 4 summers and just 1 summer received above normal rain (more than an inch above). All summer months (June - Aug) showed averages of rainfall, 1/2 to an inch below. 

SUMMER 2023 ANALOGUES











DETROITJUNJULAUGSUM AVESUMMERS

TEMPS
189470.773.969.471.01
189968.771.572.270.82
191169.573.670.771.33
191866.671.174.870.84
195167.872.769.570.01
197670.672.770.771.35
198562.871.369.267.82
200069.470.370.870.23
200169.573.574.172.36
200669.376.172.972.81
200967.868.971.269.34
201272.379.073.074.82
Ave68.872.971.571.1
Norm69.473.672.071.7
Dep-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.6












DETROITJUNJULAUGSUM TOTSUMMERS

PCPN
18942.632.620.165.411
18991.822.950.625.392
19111.480.791.313.583
19183.300.741.295.334
19513.134.102.9910.221
19763.261.471.686.415
19851.623.964.8810.462
20004.905.404.6314.931
20013.401.162.877.436
20063.954.382.0510.383
20095.272.562.7610.594
20121.313.672.257.237
Ave3.002.822.298.11
Norm3.523.373.009.89
Dep-0.52-0.55-0.71-1.78












ColorTempsDegreesRainInches
Legend:Below1.0>Below1.00>

Normal0.0-1.0Normal0.00-1.00

Above1.0>Above1.00>





Notes






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