Winter Projected to Become Out-right Mean at the Close of January - Potential for a Severe Cold Wave

Winter is projected to become out-right mean mid to late next week at the close of January into early February. The Polar Vortex; deepest over the northern hemisphere for a time, is forecast to drop almost due south across central Canada into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The Arctic cold predicted thus far may compete with or rival the cold waves in February of 2015 and January 2014. Extreme, life threatening cold of -10 to -20, even isolated locally lower with wind chills -30 to -40 are the risk at this time by mid to late next week.

Here is the latest 500H Polar Projection of both the GFS and Euro. Note the "Polar Vortex" is the deepest, coldest aloft over the Northern Hemisphere on this run.

Interestingly; the GFS and CFS -extended climate model- have been all over this Arctic cold blast for a time now. In fact; the GFS 850MB projected the Arctic blast over 200 hours out at the time (the CFS -climate model- intimated a potent cold snaps well over 300 hours, late January or early February out at varying times). Note below; the extreme cold and displacement (anomalies) of the cold air. I made the copy to compare with time the extent and accuracy to shorter time frames.

Look at the extreme Arctic anomalous 850 MB /5kt/ cold map below over the Great Lakes versus the extreme Northeast Canada/Hudson Bay anomalous warmth. The immense cold is dislodged from the Arctic and slammed south into the Northern and Eastern U.S. This map initialized back on Monday night 1/21/19 and projected the map 210 hours out for overnight, Thursday 01/31/19. I must caution we are looking at two things; trend and timing - and secondary the actual forecast of temperatures in the following maps!

Here were the 850 MB /5ft/ temperatures are projected as of that same time. Note the 850 temperatures /C/ were projected to as low as -30 to -40C!

Moving later a bit to Wednesday night's initialization;  01/23/19 for the same time period show's the overnight temperatures just after midnight - note, all comfortably (or uncomfortably as this case would be) below zero /F/.

Check out the wind chills at that time; ranging -30 to -40 across Southern Lower Michigan - and that's "mild" compared to the -40s and -50s in the upper Midwest!

Using the same initialization run time; Wednesday 1/23/19. Here's the 500 MB map the afternoon before; Wednesday 1/30/19. The 500 Dam has dropped to 486 over much of Lower Michigan!

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So what's the latest forecast of the GFS (the Euro is also projecting the cold but to a bit lesser extreme)? 

Note this time is actually a bit earlier than the other maps, it's for 18Z /1PM in the afternoon/ Wednesday 1/30/19.

...and the wind chills, they are downright scary for Wednesday morning into Thursday!

Please do not take these numbers as gospel at this time but the trend and projection of this cold wave has changed little in several days.

Here are the record lows for all three locations /DTW,FNT,MBS/ at the end of the month into early February. As you see some records could be easily tested if not broke!

JAN - DTW - Rec lows in blue

29	32	19	26.0	58/1914	7/1977	41/2006	-7/1885	48/2006	2/1977	0.84/1969	29
30	32	19	26.0	62/2013	7/1951	41/1988	-4/1951	48/2013	2/1951	1.15/1916	30
31	32	19	26.0	60/1989	7/1920	48/1988	-7/1920	51/1988	0/1920	1.48/1878	31

FEB - DTW - Rec lows in blue

1	33	19	26.0	54/1933	4/1898	40/2012	-7/1971	45/2012	0/1898	1.11/1968	1
2	33	19	26.0	52/1983	3/1881	36/2006	-12/1976	44/1973	-1/1881	0.49/1990	2
3	33	19	26.0	56/2016	8/1996	36/2016	-15/1985	46/2016	1/1996	1.12/1883	3

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JAN - FNT - Rec lows in blue

29	30	15	22.0	58/2013	6/1965	43/2008	-11/1966	47/2008	0/1966	1.32/1947	29
30	30	15	22.0	58/2013	8/1951	43/1988	-16/1951	47/1988	-4/1951	0.98/1947	30
31	30	15	22.0	59/1989	6/1971	41/2012	-8/1963	48/2012	2/1971	1.03/1942	31

FEB - FNT - Rec lows in blue

1	30	15	22.0	52/2012	7/1971	37/1968	-18/1959	44/2012	-4/1959	1.31/1968	1
2	30	15	23.0	53/1973	4/1996	35/1973	-22/1959	44/1973	-2/1959	0.69/2011	2
3	30	15	23.0	55/2016	4/1996	36/2016	-11/1996	46/2016	-3/1996	0.41/2003	3

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JAN - MBS - Rec lows in blue

29	29	15	22.0	56/2013	6/1965	39/2008	-8/1966	45/2013	-1/1965	0.99/2013	29
30	29	15	22.0	55/2013	8/1951	41/1988	-17/1951	46/1988	-5/1951	0.74/1947	30
31	29	15	22.0	55/1989	5/1920	36/1988	-15/1994	45/1989	-3/1918	1.56/1914	31

FEB - FNT - Rec lows in blue
 

1	29	15	22.0	50/1933	5/1918	37/1968	-16/1918	41/1933	-6/1918	0.79/1968	1
2	29	15	22.0	46/1920	2/1996	32/2006	-15/1976	37/1973	-5/1996	0.75/2011	2
3	29	16	22.0	50/1991	4/1996	33/2016	-14/1996	42/1991	-5/1996	0.38/1924	3

Next: Before the extreme cold, more snow? Look for a potential snowstorm Monday with several inches possible at this time. Snow that would definitely aid the Arctic cold slated to follow! Winter is certainly making up for lost time, the freezer door has opened!!

I will update about that on my FB Weather Historian later in the weekend.



 Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian