Snowfall Reports From Jan 28th 2019 Storm

The quick call of snowfalls of 4-6 inches over metro Detroit with less to the south an more north; verified fairly well over the region. Note the broad area of 4-5" over metro Detroit with less south into Monroe county. Higher amounts of 6' to as much as 10" fell from I-69, north into the Saginaw Valley and Thumb (see storm amounts from the NWS DTX).

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/winterstormwarning_190128

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian

First the Snowstorm ~ Then the Dangerous Bitter Cold!

All weather facets that I spoke about in my last blog, seem to be coming to fruition on this morning's Sunday 1/27/19 GFS Model. All models are in fair to good agreement on the Clipper heading southeast then east across the Southern Lakes/Southern Lower Michigan region.

Just a quick update on maps. After basically, 4-6" of snow across Metro Detroit, more to the north and less to the south, brutal cold surges into Upper Midwest, Great lakes and Northern Ohio Valley through mid-week. There could be a bit of freezing drizzle/drizzle in the extreme Southeast Lower Michigan's corner after the snow. This really depends on how far north the milder air pushes into that area later Monday.

Record lows and record low maxes could both be taken out, depending on location in Southeast Lower Michigan. Detroit's records look vulnerable because, basically they aren't that low.

  

JAN - DTW - Rec lows/Rec Low Maxes in blue

29	32	19	26.0	58/1914	7/1977	41/2006	-7/1885	48/2006	2/1977	0.84/1969	29
30	32	19	26.0	62/2013	7/1951	41/1988	-4/1951	48/2013	2/1951	1.15/1916	30
31	32	19	26.0	60/1989	7/1920	48/1988	-7/1920	51/1988	0/1920	1.48/1878	31

FEB - DTW - Rec lows/Rec Low Maxes in blue

1	33	19	26.0	54/1933	4/1898	40/2012	-7/1971	45/2012	0/1898	1.11/1968	1
2	33	19	26.0	52/1983	3/1881	36/2006	-12/1976	44/1973	-1/1881	0.49/1990	2
3	33	19	26.0	56/2016	8/1996	36/2016	-15/1985	46/2016	1/1996	1.12/1883	3

______________________________________________________________________

JAN - FNT - Rec lows/Rec Low Maxes in blue

29	30	15	22.0	58/2013	6/1965	43/2008	-11/1966	47/2008	0/1966	1.32/1947	29
30	30	15	22.0	58/2013	8/1951	43/1988	-16/1951	47/1988	-4/1951	0.98/1947	30
31	30	15	22.0	59/1989	6/1971	41/2012	-8/1963	48/2012	2/1971	1.03/1942	31

FEB - FNT -Rec lows/Rec Low Maxes in blue

1	30	15	22.0	52/2012	7/1971	37/1968	-18/1959	44/2012	-4/1959	1.31/1968	1
2	30	15	23.0	53/1973	4/1996	35/1973	-22/1959	44/1973	-2/1959	0.69/2011	2
3	30	15	23.0	55/2016	4/1996	36/2016	-11/1996	46/2016	-3/1996	0.41/2003	3

______________________________________________________________________

JAN - MBS -Rec lows/Rec Low Maxes in blue

29	29	15	22.0	56/2013	6/1965	39/2008	-8/1966	45/2013	-1/1965	0.99/2013	29
30	29	15	22.0	55/2013	8/1951	41/1988	-17/1951	46/1988	-5/1951	0.74/1947	30
31	29	15	22.0	55/1989	5/1920	36/1988	-15/1994	45/1989	-3/1918	1.56/1914	31

FEB - FNT - Rec lows/Rec Low Maxes in blue
 

1	29	15	22.0	50/1933	5/1918	37/1968	-16/1918	41/1933	-6/1918	0.79/1968	1
2	29	15	22.0	46/1920	2/1996	32/2006	-15/1976	37/1973	-5/1996	0.75/2011	2
3	29	16	22.0	50/1991	4/1996	33/2016	-14/1996	42/1991	-5/1996	0.38/1924	3

 


Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Winter Projected to Become Out-right Mean at the Close of January - Potential for a Severe Cold Wave

Winter is projected to become out-right mean mid to late next week at the close of January into early February. The Polar Vortex; deepest over the northern hemisphere for a time, is forecast to drop almost due south across central Canada into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The Arctic cold predicted thus far may compete with or rival the cold waves in February of 2015 and January 2014. Extreme, life threatening cold of -10 to -20, even isolated locally lower with wind chills -30 to -40 are the risk at this time by mid to late next week.

Here is the latest 500H Polar Projection of both the GFS and Euro. Note the "Polar Vortex" is the deepest, coldest aloft over the Northern Hemisphere on this run.

Interestingly; the GFS and CFS -extended climate model- have been all over this Arctic cold blast for a time now. In fact; the GFS 850MB projected the Arctic blast over 200 hours out at the time (the CFS -climate model- intimated a potent cold snaps well over 300 hours, late January or early February out at varying times). Note below; the extreme cold and displacement (anomalies) of the cold air. I made the copy to compare with time the extent and accuracy to shorter time frames.

Look at the extreme Arctic anomalous 850 MB /5kt/ cold map below over the Great Lakes versus the extreme Northeast Canada/Hudson Bay anomalous warmth. The immense cold is dislodged from the Arctic and slammed south into the Northern and Eastern U.S. This map initialized back on Monday night 1/21/19 and projected the map 210 hours out for overnight, Thursday 01/31/19. I must caution we are looking at two things; trend and timing - and secondary the actual forecast of temperatures in the following maps!

Here were the 850 MB /5ft/ temperatures are projected as of that same time. Note the 850 temperatures /C/ were projected to as low as -30 to -40C!

Moving later a bit to Wednesday night's initialization;  01/23/19 for the same time period show's the overnight temperatures just after midnight - note, all comfortably (or uncomfortably as this case would be) below zero /F/.

Check out the wind chills at that time; ranging -30 to -40 across Southern Lower Michigan - and that's "mild" compared to the -40s and -50s in the upper Midwest!

Using the same initialization run time; Wednesday 1/23/19. Here's the 500 MB map the afternoon before; Wednesday 1/30/19. The 500 Dam has dropped to 486 over much of Lower Michigan!

________________________________________________________________________________

So what's the latest forecast of the GFS (the Euro is also projecting the cold but to a bit lesser extreme)? 

Note this time is actually a bit earlier than the other maps, it's for 18Z /1PM in the afternoon/ Wednesday 1/30/19.

...and the wind chills, they are downright scary for Wednesday morning into Thursday!

Please do not take these numbers as gospel at this time but the trend and projection of this cold wave has changed little in several days.

Here are the record lows for all three locations /DTW,FNT,MBS/ at the end of the month into early February. As you see some records could be easily tested if not broke!

JAN - DTW - Rec lows in blue

29	32	19	26.0	58/1914	7/1977	41/2006	-7/1885	48/2006	2/1977	0.84/1969	29
30	32	19	26.0	62/2013	7/1951	41/1988	-4/1951	48/2013	2/1951	1.15/1916	30
31	32	19	26.0	60/1989	7/1920	48/1988	-7/1920	51/1988	0/1920	1.48/1878	31

FEB - DTW - Rec lows in blue

1	33	19	26.0	54/1933	4/1898	40/2012	-7/1971	45/2012	0/1898	1.11/1968	1
2	33	19	26.0	52/1983	3/1881	36/2006	-12/1976	44/1973	-1/1881	0.49/1990	2
3	33	19	26.0	56/2016	8/1996	36/2016	-15/1985	46/2016	1/1996	1.12/1883	3

______________________________________________________________________

JAN - FNT - Rec lows in blue

29	30	15	22.0	58/2013	6/1965	43/2008	-11/1966	47/2008	0/1966	1.32/1947	29
30	30	15	22.0	58/2013	8/1951	43/1988	-16/1951	47/1988	-4/1951	0.98/1947	30
31	30	15	22.0	59/1989	6/1971	41/2012	-8/1963	48/2012	2/1971	1.03/1942	31

FEB - FNT - Rec lows in blue

1	30	15	22.0	52/2012	7/1971	37/1968	-18/1959	44/2012	-4/1959	1.31/1968	1
2	30	15	23.0	53/1973	4/1996	35/1973	-22/1959	44/1973	-2/1959	0.69/2011	2
3	30	15	23.0	55/2016	4/1996	36/2016	-11/1996	46/2016	-3/1996	0.41/2003	3

______________________________________________________________________

JAN - MBS - Rec lows in blue

29	29	15	22.0	56/2013	6/1965	39/2008	-8/1966	45/2013	-1/1965	0.99/2013	29
30	29	15	22.0	55/2013	8/1951	41/1988	-17/1951	46/1988	-5/1951	0.74/1947	30
31	29	15	22.0	55/1989	5/1920	36/1988	-15/1994	45/1989	-3/1918	1.56/1914	31

FEB - FNT - Rec lows in blue
 

1	29	15	22.0	50/1933	5/1918	37/1968	-16/1918	41/1933	-6/1918	0.79/1968	1
2	29	15	22.0	46/1920	2/1996	32/2006	-15/1976	37/1973	-5/1996	0.75/2011	2
3	29	16	22.0	50/1991	4/1996	33/2016	-14/1996	42/1991	-5/1996	0.38/1924	3

Next: Before the extreme cold, more snow? Look for a potential snowstorm Monday with several inches possible at this time. Snow that would definitely aid the Arctic cold slated to follow! Winter is certainly making up for lost time, the freezer door has opened!!

I will update about that on my FB Weather Historian later in the weekend.



 Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Wrap Up of snow Totals From January 19th, 2019 - Actually; the First Winter Storm of Winter 2018-19

A rare but not unheard-of late start for a winter storm across Metro Detroit in a season.  Snowfall totals from Jan 19th, 2019

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/longdurationsnow190119

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Winter... Where Art Thou? It's Back....But For How Long?

Reflection Back 

The inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan have experienced one of the nicer, milder winters thus far, especially by way of lack of snow if you are a commuter. Granted there have been a few cases of icy travel but they have been few and far between. Temperatures haven't been bad either with generally, the above normal temperatures of December stretching into the second week of January.

So; what happened to a "good" old fashion cold and snowy winter which many hoped for this winter? After all; it did look so promising in November with cold and frequent snows that many were thinking we could be settling into a long cold winter! Thus far, since December 1st; about a foot below normal snowfall and one of the most boring extended stretches of weather seen in these parts in some time...there's really been nothing much to write about! Actually, when winter was supposed to really begin - it didn't. The only real winter weather seen in Southeast Lower Michigan came in November in regards to both snow and cold.

Generally since the start of climatological winter /Dec/; all of Southeast Lower Michigan is running a foot or so below normal in snowfall. However; the entire seasonal snowfall departure isn't quite as high with the help of November being a snowy month with departures averaging 2-4" across the northern half of Southeast Lower Michigan and worse in the southern half with roughly 7-10" below normal. By the way; a cold and snowy November doesn't necessarily predict that for the winter. Many of the analogues did have below normal temperatures in November along with above normal snows - and the majority of winters were light on the snow.

As of the 10th of January; since the start of the climatological winter /Dec 1st/, temperatures across Southeast Lower Michigan have averaged in the lower to mid 30s. For example; Detroit has averaged a relatively mild high of 41 and a low of 28; for a mean of 34.5 through January 10th, 2019. Looking at Flint and Saginaw reveals similar mild weather with all areas averaging about 5 - 7 degrees above normal thus far.

Average temperature map for Dec 2018

Temperature Departure Dec 1-29, 2018 - entire month N/A.

 Snowfall thus far this Snow Season thru January 12th of course, has been paltry...

The departure/percent from an average season snowfall really tells the tale... 

Present & Future

Recently; the weather has turned colder with more typical temperatures for mid January. Latest  GFS/ECMWF guidance continues then the trend for colder, normal to below normal temperatures dominating into next week ~ will it stay? Even more discerning to snow lovers and those whose livelihood depends on snow ~  will it ever snow enough to save the winter? There may be some help in that area too as latest guidance over the weekend has been projecting an Ohio Valley low bringing Southeast Michigan some snow the beginning of next weekend /18-19/. Stay Tuned, back to the rest of the winter outlook...


Do the Winter Analogues for 2018-19 which projected December the best likelihood (of any winter month) to be on the milder side; revert back to a colder, more normal winter (see Analogue Discussion below)? From the original Winter Outlook

 "Unlike the other winter months, December had quite a few years with above normal temperatures. Detroit alone, saw five Decembers where averages fell in the 30s /norm 30.1/. December of 2006 was one of the warmest December's on record with 37.4 /6th warmest/. Chances for colder, below average temperatures increase somewhat as we move into the mid to later winter on a departure basis".

"Precipitation and Snowfall Generally with precipitation (both rain and snow); below average amounts dominated. However; there were just enough above normal precipitations and snowfalls to seriously consider - being most occurred in more recent winters. This fall's rainfall /13.03" thus far/ matches well for the wet fall that occurred in 1986 /"12.45"/ in Detroit   This precipitation pattern also lines up with our present fall wetter pattern and with our snowy November. As stated before, half of the Novembers that preceded the analogue winters were below normal temperatures - or notably cool. Another item in that same vein of an early start to winter is that all locations averaged above normal snow in November in the analogues - and indeed in this November, also".


What about the prediction of the American /CFS.v2/ and Foreign season models (Jan-Mar)? The Foreign models hold on to the suggestion of a Modoki Winter SST pattern whereas the American models paints a more general El Nino.

The Foreign models continue to promote the likelihood of a colder winter on the whole; whereas the American season model /CFS.v2/ forecasts generally a milder winter with less precipitation. However; it must be noted just recently the CFSv2 monthly climate model has flipped for February to be a colder than average February with near normal precipitation. Therefore; now all aforementioned guidance now agrees for a colder or more normal to below normal temperatures for the rest of  the winter. Thus far however; the CFSv.2 and the trend projected by the Analogues have both been the best guidance for the first half of the climatological winter (Dec-Feb). 

To be gut-honest; my original Winter Outlook was also looking for the somewhat colder part of the winter also with the call of "normal to below temperatures". However; not so much of the snowy winter part with the majority of the analogues on the low side of the snow spectrum. However: with the trend of the later analogues of normal to above snow and the ongoing above normal snow in November (when Winter Outlook issued), receiving at least near normal snow would have been a somewhat logical deduction.

Analogue Guidance Discussion

The Detroit analogues did show the best chance for the above normal, warmer month being December. In fact, five averaged comfortably above normal with a mean of 33.7 (Dec 2018 ave'd 34.5). January thru February months did change with the preponderance of months with below normal temperatures - 12 below normal, 6 normal and 6 above. This left us with 5 below normal winters, 5 normal winters and just 2 above and subsequently; the original winter temperature call, normal to below since basically, evenly matched. I will have to say, since we did experience a mild December and early January thus far; even though the future trend dictates colder the rest of the winter, averaging above normal certainly could happen. In fact, in the two warmest Decembers, 1994 and 2006, the one winter /2006-07/ just squeaked down into the normal category by .1 of a degree @ 28.8 (category of -1 to +1 of norm for departure) while the other/1994-95/ was above normal at 29.6 /+1.1/.

🌈		L
A	DETROIT	T	E	M	P	S		P	C	P	N
N	SEASON	DEC	JAN	FEB	WNT AVE	WINTER	AO / SC	SEASON	DEC-FEB	WINTER	QBO
A	1914-15*n	23.9	23.4	29.9	25.7	1	SC++	1914-15*	7.07	1
L	1940-41*n	32.1	26.3	25.3	27.9	1	SC-	1940-41*	4.99	1
O	1963-64*	23.8	30.4	28.9	27.7	2	AO / SC	1963-64*	4.15	2	E-/W
G	1968-69**	28.1	23.1	28.2	26.5	2	AO-/SC--	1968-69**	6.57	2	E-/-
U	1976-77n	21.5	12.8	25.2	19.8	3	AO-/SC++	1976-77	3.41	3	W-/E
E	1979-80*n	31.9	24.5	22.2	26.2	4	AO-+/SC--	1979-80**	4.05	4	E/-
S	1986-87*n	31.7	26.1	29.6	29.1	1	AO+-/SC+	1986-87*	5.16	5	W-/E-
	1994-95	35.4	28.4	24.9	29.6	2	AO+/SC-	1994-95	5.75	3	E/W-
E	2002-03*n	28.7	20.5	23.1	24.1	5	AO-/SC--	2002-03*	2.24	6	W-/E-
L	2004-05**	29.7	24.1	28.5	27.4	3	AO+-/SC+	2004-05**	9.33	1	W-/E-
	2006-07	37.4	29.6	19.4	28.8	4	AO+-/SC+	2006-07	7.49	2	W-
N	2009-10**	29.2	25.1	27.9	27.4	5	AO-/SC++	2009-10**	5.56	4	E
I
N	Ave	29.5	24.4	26.1	26.7		SC++	Ave	5.48		QBO
O	NORM 30Y	30.1	25.6	28.1	27.9	100YR -	26.7	Norm	6.44		E-/W-
	Dep	-0.6	-1.2	-2	-1.2			Dep	-0.96
M					-1.2
O	DETROIT	S	N	O	W	F	A	L	L		Oct
D	SEASON	OCT	NOV	DEC	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	SEA TOT	SEASON	Sib snow
O	1914-15*	T	0.7	15.1	13.1	2.2	6.5	T	37.6	1	*
K	1940-41*	0	9.1	4.3	6.4	4.2	2.8	0	26.8	2	*
I	1963-64*	0	T	10.3	6.7	5.1	9.2	1.2	32.5	3	*
	1968-69**	T	T	5.9	6.3	2.3	2.3	0.3	17.1	4	A
W	1976-77	T	1.4	9.8	14.7	5	12.3	0.7	43.9	1	WA
I	1979-80**	T	3.2	2.3	2.8	5.5	11.7	1.4	26.9	5	B
N	1986-87*	T	3.3	6	24	2	13.3	1.1	49.7	1	B
T	1994-95	0	T	9.6	13.1	5.7	3.5	1.6	33.5	6	B
E	2002-03*	0	1.6	13.1	13.9	19.2	8.1	5	60.9	2	B
R	2004-05**	0	0.1	12.5	26.9	12.5	7.4	4.3/0.1	63.8	3	%
S	2006-07	0.2	0.1	2.4	6.4	14.1	5.5	1.6	30.3	7	A
	2009-10**	0	0	7.8	8.9	27	T	T	43.7	2	%
2											2018
0	Ave	T	1.6	8.3	11.9	8.7	6.9	1.7	39.1		%
1	30y Norm	0.1	1.4	9.7	12.5	10.4	6.9	1.7	42.7
8	Dep	-0.1	0.2	-1.4	-0.6	-1.7	0	0	-3.6		Sib Snow
						7			45	ther	* N/A
|	Color	Temps	Degrees		Rain	Inches		Snow	Inches
	Legend:	Below	1.0>		Below	1.00>		Below	<5.0	n
1		Normal	0.0-1.0		Normal	0.00-1.00		Normal	>-5.0<5.0
9		Above	1.0>		Above	1.00>		Above	>5.0

There's no getting around the snowfall outlook for metro Detroit; it was fairly dismal for snowfall lovers with 7 out of the 12 being below normal (some substantially), 3 above normal and 2 normal. The only 'positive" was that the heavier snowfalls occurred in the later years and do reflect our trend since 2000.

Winters with the best scores with temperature trends thus far seem to be 1940-41; 1979-80; 1994-95 and 2006-07 but it's still early. Unfortunately none of those winters had above normal snow for snowfall enthusiasts around metro Detroit with the highest at 33.5" Though remember, the two winters that had substantially above normal snow were 2002-03 and 2004-05. As of Jan 12th, only 7.4" has fallen at Detroit Metro. Flint and Saginaw have fared better with about double that at 15.8 and 15.0" respectively. Also a similarity to recent trends seen was our extremely wet autumn /13.65" - 2nd wettest/ and the Autumn of 1986 which turned out to be the 6th wettest with 12.45". The snow season for 1986-87 was above normal at 49.7" All three cities however; did contain 7 below normal snow seasons in the analogue study. Snowfall lovers can only hope for a turnaround to at least bring snowfall totals to normal. Remember though; in the final analysis we are first looking at trends and second, specific amounts in both snowfalls and temperatures.

Rest of the Winter: Normal to Below Temperatures, entire winter Normal temperatures.
                              Normal to Below snowfall, entire winter Normal to Below.

Next; and speaking of snow...what's all this talk of a possible snowstorm next weekend? I'll be following the guidance and other developments and look into that later this week if necessary.


 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian