Celebrating 20 years as Southeast Lower Michigan's Weather Historian - 42 years in the Making

It's been 20 years since I became known as the Southeast Lower Michigan Weather Historian. It began by my researching and writing about Southeast Lower Michigan's notable weather and climate events of the past, present and future. Also at the forefront; I developed my Seasonal Outlooks for Southeast Lower Michigan. While National Season Outlooks were available from CPC; I pursued the down-scale, local effects version over Southeast Lower Michigan by researching the macro-scale AND micro-scale.. Few, if any of NWS WFO offices at the time, issued a down-scaled local effect forecast outlook. After many promising results and positive responses: Season Outlooks for Southeast Lower Michigan were born and continued through my employment and into my retirement with the very satisfying challenge.

Back in 1996; I was encouraged and supported by my immediate supervisors at the time, to go with my strong interest, education and wide experience in the NWS to pursue my "natural place" with the NWS in Southeast Lower Michigan. Growing up and through the NWS, I worked numerous positions at one time or another dealing with weather, climate and forecasting. I enjoyed a broad experience which only increased my knowledge and excitement for the love of my career. Whether it be: Surface Observations, Pilot Briefing, Radar Meteorology and Warnings, Forecasting - short and long term products, Great Lake and Nearshore forecasts all while developing media relations for the NWS and myself going back into the mid 1970s. Also in the mid 70s, while working full time, I attended Eastern Michigan University full time and later, went on to University of Michigan to complete needed courses. While employed, I took countless in-house NWS courses applicable to meteorology and climate along with NWS courses at the NWSTC in Kansas City. Meteorology continues to be an ever-changing and educational endeavor for me and I try to keep abreast of the latest research, theories and ideas.

Some of my earliest weather media briefings for the local weather talent included some well known celebrities of the past and present; Marshal Wells /WJR/, Sonny Eliot, Jerry Hodak, Marilyn Turner, Rob Cress, Don Paul, Chuck Gaidica, Paul Gross and Chris Edwards to name just a handful. As I further branched out in my career, I assumed numerous focal point positions at different offices; Climate, Severe Weather and Spotter Network, Forecaster, NOAA Weather Radio, Data Acquisition all while continuing to serve as a media liaison.

Another big plus for which I'm utterly grateful, is that that my long career spanned over 37 years in the same region - Southeast Lower Michigan - a rare feat in the NWS. Most employees in the NWS to this day,  transfer cross-country for advancement. My NWS career was entirely in Southeast Lower Michigan, starting at the NWS WSFO Detroit then on to the Ann Arbor office, back to the newly created WSO Detroit and lastly in the mid 90s, the WFO at White Lake. This long term employment locally gave me a real opportunity to learn and subsequently get a feel for the weather. The seeds were actually planted way back in the stone-age during my childhood (I was around 7 or so) , growing up in northwest Detroit from the mid 1950s and and on. Ironically of sorts, I wrote Jerry Hodak a letter while in 7th grade /1967/ while he was at CBS Channel-2 and asked him what studies I needed for meteorology - his reply, "at your young age math and science". Later of course, after employed with the NWS, we occasionally chatted about the latest weather and did interviews together.

My official career began in 1974 with the NWS /42 years ago/ however, I did work the summer before /1973/ as an office helper with the MIC at the WSFO DTW and all the HMTS/METS on duty at the DTW office. I was indeed, the veritable kid in the candy store! The MIC at that time of whom I'm eternally grateful for recognizing my passion for meteorology was C R Snider. As far as I know, he is still alive and is well into his 90s (he attended my retirement 5 1/2 years along with some of the earliest of days employees from WSFO Detroit). I worked with hundreds of talented, very smart  individuals who shared my passion for meteorology and climate from my earliest days to my retirement. Some of them remain friends to this day via Facebook or otherwise. One thing I quickly learned was you can learn something from just about everyone you work with - from the highest up position on down. Some of my most rewarding learning and working experiences were with fellow personnel that could be of  "quite the character" - some I'm sure, would say the same of me!
 
Probably the single most valuable thing I learned through my experience with meteorology and forecasting is plain and simple; sometimes you'll be right, sometimes wrong and the job has no room for false egos. If you develop a bit of an ego (and you will), Mother Nature will soon come along enough and shut it down - but then again, that's the process of learning. Anyone that brags "they are always right" in this business, aren't in the right business as they don't or won't learn. Many times; I've discussed what went right and what went wrong with Outlooks and other forecasting products and more importantly, try to look for reasons WHY. While you certainly can develop a "feel" for the weather in your area, look out 'cause those feelings will be hurt.

Finally: I'm writing this blog to give my readers a much broader idea of my entire background on my 20th anniversary - 42 years in the making.


Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Next up, by mid November - The Winter Outlook 2016-17

Warm October? You Ain't Seen Nuthin' Yet!

This October of  2016 has been one of the nicer ones thus far but then again; that is not unusual for October in these parts. In addition, the chances of a nicer fall (and projected in the brief fall outlook), is tipped in its favor during La Nina.

Let's look at October's data thus far: 

STATION:   DETROIT MI PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (F-6)

 MONTH:     OCTOBER

YEAR:      2016

LATITUDE:   42 13 N

LONGITUDE:  83 20 W

TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND

======================================================================

1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18

12Z  AVG MX 2MIN

DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SN DP SPD SPD DIR MIN PSB S-S WX SPD DR

======================================================================

1   69  56  63   5   2   0 0.29  0.0    0  5.8 14 180   M    M  10 138    17 170

2   69  52  61   3   4   0 0.02  0.0    0  4.5 12 290   M    M   6 18     15 270

3   66  53  60   3   5   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.3  8 230   M    M   6 128    11 260

4   74  52  63   6   2   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.1 14 140   M    M   4 128    20 170

5   76  61  69  13   0   4    T  0.0    0  8.4 16 130   M    M   7        22 130

6   79  61  70  14   0   5 0.00  0.0    0  5.2 14 170   M    M   5 18     18 130

7   77  57  67  11   0   2    T  0.0    0  7.4 20 300   M    M   4 18     25 300

8   61  43  52  -3  13   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.0 20 290   M    M   2        26 270

9   62  40  51  -4  14   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.2 15  10   M    M   3        19  10

10 60  39  50  -4  15   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.2 12 140   M    M   2 18     16 170

11 67  48  58   4   7   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.2 13 170   M    M   8 18     16 130

12 78  51  65  11   0   0 0.18  0.0    0 11.4 25 210   M    M   7 18     33 210

13 58  43  51  -2  14   0    T  0.0    0  7.5 20 320   M    M   5        28 320

14 59  39  49  -4  16   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.8 13 130   M    M   2 18     16 160

15 73  42  58   5   7   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.9 20 210   M    M   6 18     24 210

16 69  63  66  14   0   1 0.12  0.0    0 11.2 21 230   M    M   9 18     27 220

17 81  63  72  20   0   7 0.00  0.0    0 13.7 28 210   M    M   7 1      35 220

======================================================================

SM 1178  863        99  19  0.61     0.0 119.8          M       93

======================================================================

AV 69.3 50.8                               7.0 FASTST   M    M   5    MAX(MPH)

MISC ---->  # 28 210               # 35  220

======================================================= 
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:  DETROIT MI

                                          MONTH:    OCTOBER

                                          YEAR:     2016

                                          LATITUDE:   42 13 N

                                          LONGITUDE:  83 20 W 

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]        

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 60.0     TOTAL FOR MONTH:   0.61   

DPTR FM NORMAL:   5.1         DPTR FM NORMAL:   -0.79   

HIGHEST:    81 ON 17                 GRTST 24HR  0.52 ON 30- 1      

LOWEST:     39 ON 14,10                            

With an average temperature right at 60 (above) for better than half of the month, Detroit is averaging a solid five /5.1/ degrees above normal. This is of course, is taking into account the first half of the month's normals - which by the averages, are normally the warmer half. Taking a look at October's normals below, you can see by the 18th, we normally have a HIGH around 60 - not the average /52/. Also, one can see that the records this time of year are in the lower to mid 80s, which we have been flirting with the past day or two (17,18th) but they remain intact.

October - Detroit Records 1874 - Present

October Normals (1980-2010)				Maximum		Minimum		Average Daily Temperature		Precipitation
Date	Max	Min	Avg	Record High	Lowest Max	Highest Min	Record Low	Highest	Lowest	Greatest	Date
1	68	48	58.0	88/1897	46/1920	66/2002	31/1947	76/2002	39/1899	1.55/1945	1
2	67	48	58.0	86/1971	46/1974	66/1927	29/1974	75/1927	38/1974	2.00/1925	2
3	67	48	57.0	89/1953	46/1888	68/2005	24/1974	77/1898	38/1974	3.29/1954	3
4	66	47	57.0	89/1951	45/1980	68/1884	32/1989	77/1951	39/1935	1.06/2000	4
5	66	47	56.0	88/1951	46/1892	67/1941	31/1965	77/1922	41/1935	2.10/1919	5
6	65	46	56.0	91/1963	45/1889	68/1900	30/1935	77/2007	40/1935	2.20/1959	6
7	65	46	56.0	92/1963	44/1896	68/2007	29/1935	79/2007	40/1889	1.50/1951	7
8	65	46	55.0	90/2007	43/1915	68/2007	25/1889	79/2007	39/1895	1.02/1967	8
9	64	45	55.0	86/1949	44/1915	66/1879	28/1989	75/1949	39/1895	1.43/1950	9
10	64	45	54.0	84/1949	42/1906	67/1879	29/1972	75/1949	36/1906	1.03/1932	10
11	63	45	54.0	86/1928	42/1906	65/1879	25/1906	73/1928	34/1906	3.27/1949	11
12	63	44	54.0	84/1995	41/1909	65/1879	26/1875	74/1879	35/1875	1.25/1901	12
13	63	44	53.0	83/1975	40/1909	62/1879	26/1977	70/1930	36/1909	1.57/1983	13
14	62	44	53.0	83/1989	42/1937	59/2014	27/1937	71/1975	35/1937	1.78/2003	14
15	62	43	53.0	86/1897	39/1876	66/1897	24/1876	76/1897	32/1876	1.03/1967	15
16	62	43	52.0	85/1938	37/1875	64/1928	26/1977	71/1958	34/1875	1.92/2001	16
17	61	43	52.0	85/1938	41/1952	67/1879	23/1977	72/1968	37/1952	1.70/1967	17
18	61	43	52.0	84/1963	37/1880	63/1947	24/1976	71/1963	34/1972	1.54/1937	18
19	60	42	51.0	85/1953	35/1930	61/1963	22/1972	71/1953	32/1930	2.02/1985	19
20	60	42	51.0	80/1920	36/1895	62/1920	19/1972	71/1920	32/1974	1.09/1918	20
21	60	42	51.0	81/2007	39/1925	64/1979	17/1974	71/1979	33/1895	0.96/1965	21
22	59	41	50.0	81/1920	40/1997	62/1951	25/1967	71/1979	34/1997	1.98/1929	22
23	59	41	50.0	83/1963	40/1937	59/2012	22/1969	71/1963	33/1969	2.08/1957	23
24	59	41	50.0	81/1963	40/1880	61/1991	22/1981	69/2012	32/1981	1.07/2000	24
25	58	41	49.0	82/1963	38/1887	63/1991	24/1981	72/1963	32/1887	1.09/1991	25
26	58	40	49.0	83/1963	40/1980	61/1991	22/1887	71/1963	32/1887	1.29/1920	26
27	57	40	49.0	78/1927	38/1997	58/1947	22/1976	67/1984	31/1976	1.48/1981	27
28	57	40	48.0	78/1927	35/1925	55/1964	21/1976	64/1927	31/1925	1.13/2015	28
29	57	40	48.0	77/1999	32/1925	64/1946	22/1980	70/1946	28/1925	0.74/1875	29
30	56	39	48.0	76/1999	35/1925	63/1946	20/1980	69/1946	31/1925	1.29/1900	30
31	56	39	48.0	79/1950	34/1917	60/1974	21/1988	70/1950	29/1917	1.59/2013	31
Normal High: 61.6				Normal HDD: Month: 397				Normal Monthly Precip: 2.52
Normal Low : 43.3				Normal HDD Season: 501				Normal Yearly Precip: 28.22
Normal Mean: 52.4				Normal CDD: Month: 8				Ave Snow this Month : 0.1
				Normal CDD Season: 803				Ave Snow for the Season: 0.1
Precip: Greatest Monthly Total: 7.80/1954							Snow: Greatest Monthly Total: 2.9/1980
Precip: Least Monthly Total: 0.30/1892							Snow: Least Monthly Total: 0.0/na

Looking at our top 20 warmest (and coldest Octobers) listing for Detroit below, you can see there have been several nice Octobers when looking at its attained temperature averages for the month. Many in the top five were able to hold near the average we have at this time but for the entire month. Looking back at October's spring counter-part April, April is generally a "lousier" month over October (average of 49.2 vs October's 52.4 for a start) across the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan. Therefore, if you are planning a spring or fall vacation across the region, October wins hands-down for this and many more reasons. Again, it's generally warmer, nature's full color display peaks and there is especially no comparison between the first half of April to the first half of October. October is also generally a drier month when compared to April and has been again, this year thus far with only six tenths /.61"/ recorded thus far. Also, 1.3" of snow fell during the first half of April 2016 versus none this first half of October. In addition; many times measurable snow is the norm during the first half of April (especially across the northern half of the Lakes) versus the rare or infrequent event during the first half of October most regions.

Top 20 Coldest/Warmest Octobers in Southeast Lower Michigan

Rank	Detroit Area*				Flint Bishop**				Saginaw Area***
	Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest		Coldest		Warmest
	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year	Temp	Year
1	44.5	1925	62.7	1963	42.5	1925	59.4	1947	40.6	1925	58.5	1963
2	44.9	1917	60.3	1947	44.3	1980	58.2	1963	42.1	1917	58.2	1947
3	45.3	1895	60.0	1900	44.5	1952	57.6	1971	43.7	1972	58.1	1971
4	45.8	1876	59.5	1920	44.7	1981	57.3	2007	43.9	1988	57.5	1920
5	46.0	1988	59.5	1879	44.8	1988	55.9	1924	44.1	1952	56.8	2007
6	46.3	1980	59.1	2007	45.2	1987	55.7	1946	44.6	1980	55.7	1931
7	46.4	1875	58.5	1971	46.0	2006	55.7	1938	44.7	1981	55.2	1956
8	46.5	1987	58.2	1946	46.1	1964	55.6	1949	45.6	1987	55.0	1973
9	47.0	1889	57.6	1882	46.2	1972	55.3	1973	46.1	2006	54.6	1914
10	47.0	1888	57.5	1956	46.8	1976	55.1	1956	46.1	2002	54.3	1946
11	47.3	1972	57.5	1931	47.3	1993	55.1	1931	46.4	1976	54.2	1938
12	47.3	1909	57.4	1949	47.3	1957	54.4	1950	46.5	1977	54.1	1927
13	47.3	1976	57.4	1924	47.4	2009	54.0	1984	46.9	1926	54.1	1924
14	47.3	1907	57.0	1881	47.6	2002	53.8	2015	47.1	1992	53.8	1949
15	47.5	1981	56.8	1953	47.6	1966	53.7	1953	47.2	1964	53.5	1975
16	47.6	1896	56.7	1927	47.7	2008	53.6	1975	47.5	1945	53.5	1970
17	47.9	1977	56.6	1914	47.9	1945	53.6	1928	47.5	1943	53.5	1928
18	48.0	1887	56.5	1919	48.0	1997	53.5	2000	47.7	2009	53.4	1961
19	48.1	1952	56.4	1950	48.0	1937	53.5	1927	47.8	1993	53.3	1953
20	48.6	1880	56.3	1961	48.1	1992	53.1	1934	47.8	1978	53.1	1955
* Detroit Area temperature records date back to January 1874. ** Flint Bishop temperature records date back to January 1921. *** Saginaw Area temperature records date back to January 1912.

Scanning the five driest October's on record at Detroit, one sees the driest occurred back relatively recently - back 2005. The average temperature of 55.2 was still close to 3 degrees above normal and another relatively nice October.

 Top 20 Wettest/Driest Octobers in Southeast Lower Michigan

 

Rank	Detroit Area*				Flint Bishop**				Saginaw Area***
	Wettest		Driest		Wettest		Driest		Wettest		Driest
	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year	Total	Year
1	7.80	1954	0.13	2005	6.59	2001	0.13	1923	7.78	1954	0.18	1952
2	6.76	2001	0.30	1892	5.52	1941	0.33	2005	5.57	1990	0.28	1956
3	6.52	1881	0.47	1924	4.72	1921	0.33	1944	5.33	1962	0.38	1924
4	5.67	1890	0.50	1964	4.21	1954	0.38	1956	5.29	1951	0.46	1975
5	5.50	1949	0.51	1963	4.20	1929	0.57	1982	5.29	1941	0.48	1982

Some of this data bares out my title of this piece but nothing like the warmest October month (1963) along with it being the 5th driest - now that was a beautiful October and we were beginning El Nino that fall, not La Nina (that occurred the following fall /1964/. Take a look at the DET LCD (Detroit City Arpt) for the month, where the official record was taken at the time. Take note of the short but hot spell that took place the 7th-8th with temps in the lower 90s! Then again, during a much longer 12-day stretch of much above normal temperatures that commenced during our present time-period /16th/ and ran through the 27th. Many days reached temperatures into the lower to mid 80s! In comparison, this October thus far we've had one.

In all; during the glorious month of October of '63, Detroit recorded two 90+ degree days and ten 80 degree or better days. And of those high temperatures /12 days/; seven still remain records! Not to be be outdone, on the rainfall side, just a half inch /.51"/ fell the entire month, over two inches /-2.12/ below the normal at the time.

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-7B772218-BB4A-4A2B-8EDC-21926BB3DFD6.pdf

And looking out ahead for the remainder of October, while the month should average above normal I see nothing like what happened in 1963 - what an October month, for sure!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler - SEMI_WeatherHistorian

JUST WHAT IS INDIAN SUMMER AND DID INDIANS REALLY HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT?

Originally written 20 years ago in the Autumn of 1996; my Indian Summer article remains one of the more popular of my articles written. And, still to this day, I receive comments on it and Indian Summer types of weather over many parts of the globe.

JUST WHAT IS INDIAN SUMMER AND DID INDIANS REALLY HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT?

Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian
(originally written in the Autumn of 1996)

An early American writer described Indian Summer well when he wrote, "The air is perfectly quiescent and all is stillness, as if Nature, after her exertions during the Summer, were now at rest." This passage belongs to the writer John Bradbury and was written nearly an "eternity" ago, back in 1817. But this passage is as relevant today as it was way back then. The term "Indian Summer" dates back to the 18th century in the United States. It can be defined as "any spell of warm, quiet, hazy weather that may occur in October or even early November." Basically, autumn is a transition season as the thunderstorms and severe weather of the summer give way to a tamer, calmer weather period before the turbulence of the winter commences.

The term "Indian Summer" is generally associated with a period of considerably above normal temperatures, accompanied by dry and hazy conditions ushered in on a south or southwesterly breeze. Several references make note of the fact that a true Indian Summer can not occur until there has been a killing frost/freeze. Since frost and freezing temperatures generally work their way south through the fall, this would give credence to the possibility of several Indian Summers occurring in a fall, especially across the northern areas where frost/freezes usually come early.

While almost exclusively thought of as an autumnal event, I was surprised to read that Indian Summers have been given credit for warm spells as late as December and January (but then, just where does that leave the "January Thaw" phenomenon?). Another topic of debate about Indian Summer has been "location, location". Evidently, some writers have made reference to it as native only to New England, while others have stated it happens over most of the United States, even along the Pacific coast. Probably the most common or accepted view on location for an Indian Summer would be from the Mid-Atlantic states north into New England, and then west across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Midwest and Great Plains States. In other words, locations that generally have a winter on the horizon! But then, what about the king of winter weather in the United States, Alaska? Do they have an "Indian Summer", or something similar? Some places in Alaska are lucky to have a "summer", let alone an Indian Summer! One would certainly have to throw out the notion of it usually happening in October or November, when, winter generally has already taken an aggressive foothold on much of the state. What about other locations that come to mind, The Rocky Mountain States and parts of Canada, particularity in the east and south? Note: If anyone reading this has any information on Indian Summers in those areas questioned, or just thoughts on Indian Summers drop me a note or comment. (Editors note: Over the years while at the NWS and after, I've received several fascinating notes from all over the world on how common and widespread "Indian Summers" were with each having its own specific local or regional definition).

A typical weather map that reflects Indian Summer weather involves a large area of high pressure along or just off the East Coast. Occasionally, it will be this same high pressure that produced the frost/freeze conditions only a few nights before, as it moved out of Canada across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes and then finally, to the East Coast. Much warmer temperatures, from the deep South and Southwest, are then pulled north on southerly breezes resulting from the clockwise rotation of wind around the high pressure. It is characteristic for these conditions to last for at least a few days to well over a week and there may be several cases before winter sets in. Such a mild spell is usually broken when a strong low pressure system and attending cold front pushes across the region. This dramatic change results from a sharp shift in the upper winds or "jet stream" from the south or southwest to northwest or north. Of course, there can be some modifications to the above weather map scenario, but for simplicity and common occurrence sake, this is the general weather map.

Now we come to the origin of the term itself, "Indian Summer". Over the years, there has been a considerable amount of interest given to this topic in literature. Probably one of the most intensive studies occurred way back around the turn of the century. A paper by Albert Matthews, written in 1902, made an exhaustive study of the historical usage of the term. Evidently, the credit for the first usage of the term was mistakenly given to a man by the name of Major Ebenezer Denny, who used it in his "Journal", dated October 13th, 1794. The journal was kept at a town called Le Boeuf, which was near the present day city of Erie, Pennsylvania. Matthews however, uncovered an earlier usage of the term in 1778 by a Frenchman called St. John de Crevecoeur. It appeared in a letter Crevecoeur wrote dated "German-flats, 17 Janvier, 1778." The following is a translation of a portion of the letter:

"Sometimes the rain is followed by an interval of calm and warmth which is called the Indian Summer; its characteristics are a tranquil atmosphere and general smokiness. Up to this epoch the approaches of winter are doubtful; it arrives about the middle of November, although snows and brief freezes often occur long before that date."

Since the writer says, "it is called the Indian Summer", obviously one could argue that term would have had to been used before him and became popular, but by whom, an earlier explorer or possibly an Indian tribe?

Now, after looking at all of this, the question you might ask yourself is, "Does the term 'Indian Summer' really have anything to do with Indians?" Again, there is host of possibilities, read on...

One explanation of the term "Indian Summer" might be that the early native Indians chose that time of year as their hunting season. This seems reasonable seeing the fall months are still considered the main hunting season for several animals. Also, the mild and hazy weather encourages the animals out, and the haziness of the air gives the hunter the advantage to sneak up on its prey without being detected. Taking this idea one step further, Indians at that time were known to have set fires to prairie grass, underbrush and woods to accentuate the hazy, smokey conditions. But Albert Matthews pointed out that the Indians also did this at other times of the year. Other possibilities include; the Indians made use of the dry, hazy weather to attack the whites before the hard winter set in; that this was the season of the Indian harvest; or, that the predominant southwest winds that accompanied the Indian Summer period were regarded by the Indians as a favor or "blessing" from a "god" in the desert Southwest. Another idea, of a more prejudicial origin, was that possibly the earliest English immigrants equated Indian Summer to "fools" Summer, given the reliability of the resulting weather. Finally, another hypothesis, not at all in the American Indian "camp" of theories, was put forward by an author by the name of H. E. Ware, who noted that ships at that time traversing the Indian Ocean loaded up their cargo the most during the "Indian Summer", or fair weather season. Several ships actually had an "I.S." on their hull at the load level thought safe during the Indian Summer.

In any event, there are several theories or possibilities of the explanation and origin of the term "Indian Summer", yet no one theory has actually been proven. Given the fact it has been centuries since the term first appeared, it will probably rest with its originators. All in all, even with the variety of opinions on this weather (or seasonal) phenomenon, the most popular belief of Indian Summer is as follows...It is an abnormally warm and dry weather period, varying in length, that comes in the autumn time of the year, usually in October or November, and only after the first killing frost/freeze. There may be several occurrences of Indian Summer in a fall season or none at all.

Since Indian Summers are fairly common, it would be interesting to find out if there is any correlation between the years that had no Indian Summer (in a particular area) and the type of winter weather that followed. Oh well, possibly another time and another article but enjoy the Indian Summer while its around, because one thing is for certain, it never lasts!

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian