Summer Outlook Update: On the Warmer Side But With Wide-Ranging Rainfalls

 

Dedicated to Beloved Family Member: Mac: 9/14/98-6/26/16

In my initial Summer Outlook for Southeast Lower Michigan I discussed the changeable, roller coaster type of summer temperatures pattern expected; resulting in temperatures averaging a degree or two above or below normal, depending on the dominant trend. The overall pattern I expected has materialized with the warmer side seemingly winning out.

 From the original Outlook:

"Our best analogues this past winter, 1982-83 and 1997-98 contained normal summer temperatures averaging very close to 72; just a few tenths different from each other. Likewise; I look for the summer to continue to display the more roller-coaster type of temperature pattern (not unlike seen this spring and also dominated, the Spring of '83) with sometimes significantly above, below and everything in-between but ultimately resulting in the normal or typical summer. 
Summarizing: I look for temperatures to average 1 - 2 degrees of the summer norms across Southeast Lower Michigan."

Temperature Update:

Considering prevailing trends thus far this summer; instead of temperatures averaging one or two degrees above or below the norms, I now expect temperatures to average one to three degrees above the norms with warmer than average weather winning out. No other change in the pattern is expected with active, roller-coaster type of pattern earlier to continue to hold.

 
Along with the temperature pattern; it appears the stormier side discussed in previous analogues may be finally becoming more prevalent as the summer moves on and the pattern to the south drifts northward. However; to predict where these convective rains will rule is exceedingly challenging this summer especially since it appears in just short distances vast differences of rainfall have already occurred recently. While this is typical of summer rains anyway, there will likely be even more variable total rainfall because of the exceedingly dry conditions that prevailed in most areas up until this July.

From Original Outlook:

In conclusion: Look for rainfall to average normal to above across the southern half of Southeast Lower Michigan and normal to below across the northern half.

Rainfall Update 

Prevailing and expected pattern the rest of the summer dictates rainfall to contain wide ranging totals due to a drier June into early July. Even if more typical normal or even above normal rains occur; overall rainfall will generally range from below normal to around normal. This was the pattern I was looking for over the northern half of the region in the original Outlook. There may be even some pockets of above normal due to heavy dumping convective rains.


Again narrowing and tightening-up the original summer outlook some; look for the summer to average up to a couple of degrees warmer than normal with below to normal rainfall prevailing across most areas with pockets of above normal.

Enjoy the remainder of the summer!
 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian