Overall Gorgeous September Introduces October on a Fall-Like Note - With a Hurricane To Boot Out East

No one can deny this September was not only but very pleasant - so much so; its been surely one of the, if not THE BEST, weather month of the year! With temperatures well above normal, all sites placed in the top three warmest Septembers! Along with numerous back to back sunny days (particularity the second half) this has made September - terrific! Temperatures in September averaged in the upper 60s to near 70; some 5 - 7 degrees above normal! While dry conditions prevailed over the Metro Detroit -Ann Arbor- Port Huron areas; normal to locally wet conditions prevailed across the Flint - Saginaw and Thumb Region (maps don't include 9/30 but little if any change noted).

Recent model runs have been intimating some notable changes from our tranquil and warm September for at least the first third of October with cooler (actually, closer to normal) and sometimes, stormy conditions. With the influx of Autumn hemispheric patterns; more and more variable model solutions have become the norm this past few weeks, the up-coming week not withstanding. Latest model runs all bring a huge dome of cool fall air down across Southeast Canada with ridging into the Lakes and New England. The strength of the high is fairly impressive on the GFS for the opening of October pushing 1045 MB /30.86in/ over the weekend! Strong highs coming down out of the Polar region were the rule the past few falls and winters; this is something to watch for the upcoming El Nino winter and just one more piece of the complex puzzle.

Of course, the big news for points mainly SE-E-NE will be what Hurricane Joaquin will ultimately do this coming weekend into early next week. As with winter storms, models have been all over the place for intensity and movement. As of the 12z /8am/ run Wednesday; most major models now bring him inland toward North Carolina/Virginia late in the weekend. One major exception is the European model which now shifts him off to sea, away from the East Coast (see maps below). Even the Hurricane model /WFR/, brings him inland and all about the same timing strangely enough; over night Saturday into Sunday morning then along the Coast. I should mention; the Canadian /GEM/ model also brings Joaquin into North Carolina but later Saturday afternoon. With these solutions; no doubt is it surely something to give the Hurricane Center headaches. For a continued watch on their projections of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Joaquin - check here.

 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian