Recent model runs have been intimating some notable changes from our tranquil and warm September for at least the first third of October with cooler (actually, closer to normal) and sometimes, stormy conditions. With the influx of Autumn hemispheric patterns; more and more variable model solutions have become the norm this past few weeks, the up-coming week not withstanding. Latest model runs all bring a huge dome of cool fall air down across Southeast Canada with ridging into the Lakes and New England. The strength of the high is fairly impressive on the GFS for the opening of October pushing 1045 MB /30.86in/ over the weekend! Strong highs coming down out of the Polar region were the rule the past few falls and winters; this is something to watch for the upcoming El Nino winter and just one more piece of the complex puzzle.
Of course, the big news for points mainly SE-E-NE will be what Hurricane Joaquin will ultimately do this coming weekend into early next week. As with winter storms, models have been all over the place for intensity and movement. As of the 12z /8am/ run Wednesday; most major models now bring him inland toward North Carolina/Virginia late in the weekend. One major exception is the European model which now shifts him off to sea, away from the East Coast (see maps below). Even the Hurricane model /WFR/, brings him inland and all about the same timing strangely enough; over night Saturday into Sunday morning then along the Coast. I should mention; the Canadian /GEM/ model also brings Joaquin into North Carolina but later Saturday afternoon. With these solutions; no doubt is it surely something to give the Hurricane Center headaches. For a continued watch on their projections of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Joaquin - check here.
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian