WeatherHistorian-SeMI: Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday...Touchdown! (snowfall reports through 2/2/15)_*Updated Jan 30th 2020

SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM SUPER BOWL SUNDAY'S SNOWSTORM

DETROIT'S SNOW TOTAL OF 16.7" FOR 2/1 - 2/2/15, PUT IT IN 3RD PLACE FOR

BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD GOING BACK TO 1880.

Snowfall Totals from the February 1-2, 2015 Winter Storm /NWS - DTX/

February started off quite active, as a long duration snow event unfolded across the region bringing the first significant snowfall to Southeast Michigan this winter season. Over the past few months, the area had managed to avoid a lot of the snow while other states have not had such luck. Up through the end of January, areas were below normal for snowfall compared to the record breaking winter season of '13-'14. Then came the storm that ended up dropping over a foot of snow at Detroit Metro Airport!

A strong low pressure system developed across the Great Plains and drifted across lower Michigan on Sunday and Sunday night. Snow began in the southern counties around 1am Sunday and snowed continuously throughout the day on Sunday. Better moisture arrived by mid-afternoon resulting in heavier snowfall rates (up to an inch per hour in some locations). The system finally pushed east of the region round 7am Monday morning. This long duration winter storm resulted in snowfall totals between 9 and 15 inches across the Metro Detroit area, with slightly lower amounts across the Thumb and Saginaw Valley regions (3-6 inches).

Radar loop courtesy of Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM). Peach colored boxes are winter weather advisories and pink boxes are winter storm warnings.

PNSDTX

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-021730-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...STORM TOTALS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1048 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTS

LOCATION SNOWFALL DURATION

(INCHES) (HOURS) LAT LON

...BAY COUNTY...

AUBURN M 7.2 24 43.60N 84.08W

...GENESEE COUNTY...

GOODRICH M 8.5 27 42.92N 83.51W

4 N BURTON M 8.9 27 43.05N 83.62W

7 W FLINT M 8.9 26 43.02N 83.83W

FLINT M 9.2 28 43.02N 83.69W

LINDEN M 10.2 28 42.82N 83.78W

...HURON COUNTY...

5 NNW FILION M 4.2 24 43.96N 83.04W

BAD AXE M 6.0 25 43.80N 83.00W

...LAPEER COUNTY...

4 E DAVISON M 11.0 24 43.03N 83.44W

LAPEER M 11.9 28 43.05N 83.32W

2 W LAPEER M 12.3 28 43.05N 83.36W

...LENAWEE COUNTY...

2 WSW TIPTON M 9.5 30 42.01N 84.10W

MORENCI M 11.7 30 41.72N 84.22W

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...

HOWELL M 10.2 28 42.61N 83.94W

1 N WHITMORE LAKE M 11.0 29 42.44N 83.75W

BRIGHTON E 12.5 M 42.53N 83.78W

...MACOMB COUNTY...

1 NW ROSEVILLE M 10.0 26 42.52N 82.95W

4 NNW RICHMOND M 11.7 28 42.86N 82.78W

SHELBY TOWNSHIP M 15.5 25 42.67N 83.03W

...MIDLAND COUNTY...

MIDLAND M 4.0 24 43.62N 84.23W

OIL CITY M 6.0 24 43.61N 84.59W

...MONROE COUNTY...

DUNDEE M 12.0 30 41.96N 83.66W

CARLETON M 13.1 29 42.06N 83.39W

MONROE M 14.0 28 41.92N 83.39W

3 SW MONROE M 15.0 30 41.89N 83.43W

4 SSE NEWPORT M 15.0 30 41.95N 83.28W

...OAKLAND COUNTY...

1 N FARMINGTON HILLS M 9.0 28 42.50N 83.38W

HOLLY M 9.0 28 42.80N 83.62W

FARMINGTON HILLS M 9.2 28 42.49N 83.38W

CLARKSTON M 9.5 28 42.74N 83.42W

FARMINGTON M 10.6 28 42.46N 83.38W

2 S ORTONVILLE M 11.0 28 42.82N 83.44W

WHITE LAKE M 11.2 28 42.65N 83.50W

4 N NOVI M 11.5 26 42.53N 83.49W

4 N LIVONIA M 12.3 28 42.46N 83.37W

1 ENE ROCHESTER M 13.1 26 42.69N 83.10W

NW SOUTH LYON M 13.7 28 42.46N 83.65W

2 NW WATERFORD M 14.0 28 42.68N 83.42W

LAKEVILLE M 14.0 28 42.82N 83.15W

2 SE LEONARD M 15.0 30 42.85N 83.12W

...SAGINAW COUNTY...

5 S MERRILL M 5.0 24 43.34N 84.34W

2 E MERRILL M 6.0 26 43.41N 84.30W

FRANKENMUTH M 7.4 27 43.33N 83.74W

HEMLOCK M 7.5 24 43.42N 84.23W

SAGINAW M 7.5 27 43.42N 83.95W

CHESANING M 7.7 27 43.18N 84.12W

...SANILAC COUNTY...

LEXINGTON M 10.0 24 43.27N 82.53W

SANDUSKY M 10.0 24 43.42N 82.83W

...SHIAWASSEE COUNTY...

2 NE CORUNNA M 7.0 24 43.00N 84.09W

6 WNW DURAND M 10.5 28 42.95N 84.10W

OWOSSO M 10.5 28 43.00N 84.18W

SHAFTSBURG M 13.2 28 42.80N 84.29W

...ST. CLAIR COUNTY...

1 NNW YALE M 12.2 28 43.14N 82.80W

COLUMBUS M 12.3 25 42.89N 82.67W

ALGONAC M 14.0 27 42.62N 82.53W

...TUSCOLA COUNTY...

CARO M 5.5 26 43.49N 83.40W

1 SSW CASS CITY M 6.5 28 43.59N 83.18W

VASSAR M 7.0 26 43.37N 83.58W

...WASHTENAW COUNTY...

SALINE M 9.5 29 42.18N 83.78W

2 WNW ANN ARBOR M 12.0 29 42.29N 83.77W

SALEM M 12.0 28 42.41N 83.58W

CHELSEA M 12.2 29 42.31N 84.02W

3 SW YPSILANTI M 12.8 29 42.21N 83.66W

MANCHESTER M 13.0 29 42.15N 84.04W

SE ANN ARBOR M 13.5 29 42.28N 83.73W

ANN ARBOR M 14.1 29 42.28N 83.73W

3 NNW MILAN M 15.0 29 42.13N 83.72W

...WAYNE COUNTY...

GROSSE POINTE FARMS M 9.5 29 42.40N 82.89W

DEARBORN M 9.6 29 42.31N 83.21W

3 NE DEARBORN M 10.0 29 42.34N 83.17W

1 NW DEARBORN HEIGHTS M 12.8 M 42.34N 83.29W

2 NNW LIVONIA M 13.5 29 42.42N 83.39W

GARDEN CITY M 13.5 29 42.33N 83.33W

ALLEN PARK M 14.0 28 42.26N 83.21W

NORTHVILLE M 14.2 30 42.44N 83.49W

1 WSW DEARBORN M 14.5 29 42.31N 83.23W

WYANDOTTE M 16.5 28 42.21N 83.16W

ROMULUS M 16.7 28 42.22N 83.37W

BROWNSTOWN TOWNSHIP M 17.0 28 42.15N 83.26W

M = MEASURED

E = ESTIMATED

_______________________________________________________________

Update 2/1/15 - Posted 240PM 2/1/15

As discussed the past few days; our ongoing snowstorm has shown increasing classic

atmospheric phasing; resulting in an outstanding moisture supply and good dynamics for

a major snowstorm across much of Southeast Lower Michigan  (see blog updates below

this update)! Yesterday and this morning; the Weather Prediction Center of the NWS in Maryland

agreed with my analysis yesterday (update 1/31/15) on why we had/have the makings of a major,

notable snowstorm across the Southern Great Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley (see below):

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
420 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 00Z SUN FEB 01 2015 - 00Z WED FEB 04 2015

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHEAST...

QUITE POSSIBLY THE MOST EXTENSIVE WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUN AND MON.  AN
AGGRESSIVE AND SHARP NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS IT INCORPORATES
SOUTHERN STREAM DYNAMICS AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT EMANATING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING
SUN MORNING OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
DEEPEN AND TRACK EASTWARD...REACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY SUN
EVENING AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MON
MORNING.  ANOMALOUS PWS FROM MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC/SUBTROPICAL JET AND LOW-LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL
SURGE OVER AN EXPANDING COLD SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A POLAR/ARCTIC
SURFACE RIDGE. THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THE WEST TO EAST AXIS OF FROZEN
PRECIP. FOR DAY 1...SUN MORNING INTO EARLY MON...THE GUIDANCE HAS
SETTLED ON A HEAVY SNOWFALL AXIS ALONG THE MICH/IND/OH BORDERS
INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION...WHERE A SLIGHT TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF A FOOT OR MORE HAS BEEN INDICATED.

The latest prognostication, surface, radar and satellite data all continue this trend with

just a slight upward tweaking of both amounts and area coverage. I do believe we will

most likely place in the top 25 biggest snowstorms at Detroit with a good chance in the

foot or better category.

SNOWSTORM TOTALS AND WEATHER FORECAST:

Snow, heavy at times with considerable blowing and drifting later afternoon into the night. Winds will pick up from northeast at 15 to 25 mph and gusty, becoming north on Monday. Snowfall, with considerable blowing and drifting snow will create near blizzard conditions at times (the winds must at least frequently gust to 35 MPH for a blizzard). Temperatures will drop to around 8 far north to teens south by Monday morning. Ironically, Monday morning is Groundhog Day and I suspect he might be buried and downright crabby if he is pulled out of his hutch; both here and in Punxsutawney Pennsylvania!

Snow Amount Estimates:
Again; I feel the general model trend and intensification are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event: There will be a somewhat sharp line of demarcation from north to south with this system with highest amounts generally to the south of the delineated area. Look for 4" - 7" north/south in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region; 7" - around 12" from the Flint area east across to Port Huron (I-69) and then; south into the Ann Arbor area to Metro Detroit. Further south across the 1-94 corridor to the Ohio border; 12 - 14+" of snow is possible.

____________________________________________________________________________

Update -1/31/15 - Posted 343 PM 1/31/15

First of all up front; let's define Super Snow; when I first sent that out in the title I was thinking of one of our bigger snowstorms in Southeast Lower Michigan; particularly in Detroit where the heaviest snow of the three cities was expected (and still is). I had envisioned of snowstorms of a foot or more when looking at the chart below. As one can see by the chart in which I developed years ago at the NWS for the net (and is kept up to date by the NWS), it's not that easy to officially get a foot or more with just 12 times since 1880 it happening (good way to remember; 12 for 12). Therefore; I thought that would be a good place to start when using the play on words and title "Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday" At that time, the chances looked fairly low for a foot or more when first issued. Now I'm not so sure they are that low...

Detroit's Heaviest Snow Storms
Rank	Date	Amount
1	April 6, 1886	24.5
2	December 1-2, 1974	19.3
3	March 4-5, 1900	16.1
4	February 28-March 1, 1900	14.0
5	December 18-19,1929	13.8
6	February 12-13 1894	12.8
7	February 19, 1908	12.6
8	January 31-February 1,1881	12.5
9	February 9,1911	12.3
10	March 3-4,1895	12.3
11	January 22-23,2005	12.2
12	January 13-14,1927	12.1
13	January 30-31,1982	11.8
14	January 13-14,1910	11.4
15	March 4-5,1899	11.4
16	January 2-3, 1999	11.3
17	December 19-20, 1973	11.2
18	February 3-4,1901	11.2
19	March 7-8, 1931	11.1
20	January 13-14, 1992	11.1
21	December 31, 2013-January 2, 2014	11.1
22	February 25-26, 1965	11.0
23	December 4-5, 1898	10.6
24	January 4-5, 2014	10.6
25	January 6, 1994	10.3

*NOTE: DETROIT'S 16.7" SNOW TOTAL FOR 2/1-2/2/15 PUT IT 3RD PLACE FOR BIGGEST SNOWSTORM ON RECORD GOING BACK TO 1880.

*Updated 01302020*

Detroit's Heaviest Snow Storms
Rank	Date	Amount
1	April 6, 1886	24.5
2	December 1-2, 1974	19.3
3	February 1-2, 2015	16.7
4	March 4-5, 1900	16.1
5	February 28-March 1, 1900	14.0
6	December 18-19,1929	13.8
7	February 12-13 1894	12.8
8	February 19, 1908	12.6
9	January 31-February 1,1881	12.5
10	February 9,1911	12.3
11	March 3-4,1895	12.3
12	January 22-23,2005	12.2
13	January 13-14,1927	12.1
14	January 30-31,1982	11.8
15	January 13-14,1910	11.4
16	March 4-5,1899	11.4
17	January 2-3, 1999	11.3
18	December 19-20, 1973	11.2
19	February 3-4,1901	11.2
20	March 7-8, 1931	11.1
21	January 13-14, 1992	11.1
22	December 31, 2013-January 2, 2014	11.1
23	February 25-26, 1965	11.0
24	December 11, 2016	10.7
25	January 4-5, 2014	10.6

Latest guidance has ramped up a major (or worst - best if you are snowstorm nut) snowstorm for extreme Southeast Lower Michigan; while still somewhat lesser amounts north of the Flint into Port Huron. As mentioned in previous blog last night; the moisture and dynamics with this system were coming together for this to be a better, more developed Ohio Valley storm that actually slows down some as it approaches western Pennsylvania on Monday.

It's been my observation over the years, usually these St Louie lows are good achievers (but still not as good as the Gulf Low) in their own right as they "paddle-boat" moisture in from the Gulf while they form and develop while moving across the Ohio Valley. What was originally missing like many times (or at least was questionable) was the phasing or interaction of the dynamics in the upper levels to affect the lower levels of the atmosphere. These dynamics are in the form of short wave energy from the northern Pacific, southern Canada and the Central Pacific - which is observed as a "Cut-off Low" (cut off from the main jet stream). Therefore; the amount of energy that was needed to come together to lift and support the increasing moisture pulled north from the SW and Gulf was questionable to produce a major storm.

This distant player in this system is indeed, the large upper low system of the Baja area of California into the Southwest. Even while remaining nearly stationary, it still has been able to pinwheel spokes of energy and moisture from the Pacific over the southwest part of the country. This moisture has been pushed broadly upward into the south and even central part of the country. While the main system stays put, still enough energy and moisture is forecast to be tapped to aid in development of this major Ohio Valley system. See maps and explanations below:

Snowfall and weather forecast:

Snow will commence during the early morning hours of Sunday. Look for the snow to become heavy at times as the day wears on along with a stiffening northeast wind at 10 to 20 mph. Snow, heavy at times with considerable blowing and drifting later afternoon into the night. Winds will pick up from northeast at 15 to 25 mph and gusty, becoming north on Monday. Considerable blowing and drifting snow with temperatures dropping into the teens to lower 20s by Monday morning. Ironically, Monday morning is Groundhog Day and I suspect he might be buried and downright crabby if he is pulled out of his hutch; both here and in Punxsutawney Pennsylvania!

Snow Amount Estimates:
I feel the general model trend and intensification are better inline to what I'm seeing most likely for the event: There will be a rather sharp line of demarcation from north to south with this system with highest amounts generally to the south of the delineated area. Look for 2" - 4" north/south in the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region; 5" - 10" from the Flint area east across to Port Huron and then; south into the Ann Arbor area to Metro Detroit. Further south across the Southeast corner of Lower Michigan 8" - 12" of snow is possible. If the storm deepens further and slows down more - some isolated 12"+ amounts are possible in those areas.