2/28/14 -Update & Results The Anatomy of Our "Polar Vortex" Visit Late Next Week

-Update 2/28/14 Temperature Results

An extremely cold morning was felt for the last day of February and also was appropriate enough for the last day of the meteorological winter /Dec-Feb/ -  a record winter in many ways that was very cold and snowy. We'll take a look at the temperatures and snowfall in the meteorological winter of 2013-14 and the final snowfall for the snowfall season of 2013-14 in the coming weeks. Meanwhile; check out these low temperatures on the last morning of the meteorological winter.
Next; Spring 2014 Outlook

MORNING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1124 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014

VALUES REPRESENT YESTERDAY`S HIGHS....LOW OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 7 AM EST


.BR DTX  0228  ES DH00/TAIRZX/DH07/TAIRZP/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ


:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:....................................................................
:       STATION              MAX / MIN  / 7 AM  / 24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW
:        NAME                TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP  / PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH
:....................................................................
WHKM4: NWS WHITE LAKE      :   16 / -18  / -17  / 0.00  /  0.0 / 16
ADG  : ADRIAN AIRPORT      :   15 /  -8  /  -7  /
123M4: ANN ARBOR           :   13 /  -5  /  -5  / 0.02  /  0.4 / 13
BAX  :*BAD AXE AIRPORT     :   10 / -20  / -20  /
CFS  :*CARO AIRPORT-TUSCOLA:   11 / -18  / -18  /
DET  : DETROIT CITY AIRPORT:   15 /  -1  /   0  /
DTW  : DETROIT METRO ARPT  :   15 /   0  /   0  /    T  /    T / 12
FNT  : FLINT BISHOP AIRPORT:   14 / -16  / -14  /    T  /    T / 11
ONZ  :*GROSSE ILE AIRPORT  :   16 /   1  /   1  /
OZW  :*HOWELL AIRPORT      :   12 / -10  /  -9  /
DUH  :*LAMBERTVILLE AIRPORT:   19 /   0  /   0  /
D95  :*LAPEER DUPONT AIRPRT:   12 / -19  / -19  /
IKW  :*MIDLAND AIRPORT     :   11 / -19  / -19  /
TTF  :*MONROE AIRPORT      :   16 /  -2  /  -2  /
RNP  :*OWOSSO AIRPORT      :   12 / -12  / -11  /
PTK  : PONTIAC AIRPORT     :   12 / -11  / -10  /
P58  : PORT HOPE           :    M /   M  /   M  /    M
PHN  :*PORT HURON AIRPORT  :   12 / -18  / -18  /
MBS  : SAGINAW - TRI-CITIES:   12 /  -8  /  -6  /    T  /    T / 19
HYX  :*SAGINAW-HARRY BROWNE:   12 /  -9  /  -8  /
VLL  :*OAKLAND/TROY AIRPORT:   14 /  -2  /  -2  /
YIP  : YPSILANTI WILLOW RUN:   17 /  -7  /  -6  /
.END


*THE TEMPERATURE DATA FOR THESE SITES ABOVE REPRESENT THE HIGHEST AND
 LOWEST TEMPERATURES THAT WERE REPORTED ON THE METAR OBSERVATIONS
 THAT TRANSMIT THREE TIMES AN HOUR AND MAY NOT REPRESENT THE ACTUAL
 HIGH OR LOW FOR THAT SITE. SOME OF THESE SITES DO NOT MEASURE
 PRECIPITATION.
.....................................................................


THE FOLLOWING COOPERATIVE OBSERVER SITES REPORT FROM MIDNIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST.


.BR DTX  0228  ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ


:SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN -- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION STATIONS
:....................................................................
:       STATION               MAX / MIN  / MIDNITE/24-HR / SNOW/ SNOW
:        NAME                 TEMP/ TEMP / TEMP  /PRECIP/ FALL/ DEPTH
:....................................................................
ARNM4: ADRIAN              :   15 /  -2  /  -2  /    T /  0.2 / 4
MILM4: MILFORD- GM PRV GNDS:   11 / -10  / -10  /    T /    T / 8
MDLM4: MIDLAND             :   11 /  -6  /  -5  /    T /    T / M
MTCM4: MT CLEMENS SELFRIDGE:   14 /  -2  /  -1  / 0.01 /  0.3 / 3
PRHM4: PORT HURON          :   12 /   0  /   0  /    T /    T / 6
SGNM4: SAGINAW 5W          :   10 /  -9  /  -8  / 0.04 /  0.7 / 19
.....................................................................


COOPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS VALUES ARE FOR APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS FROM
PREVIOUS OB TIME TO CURRENT OB TIME.


.BR DTX  0228  ES DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/TA/PPDRZZ/SFDRZZ/SDIRZZ


:..................................................................
:       STATION           OB   /MAX / MIN  /OB  /24-HR /SNOW/SNOW
:        NAME             TIME /TEMP/ TEMP /TEMP/PRECIP/FALL/DEPTH
:..................................................................
: ***BAY COUNTY***
AUBM4:  AUBURN            :0630/  8 / -17 / -17 / 0.00/   M/6


  ***MIDLAND COUNTY***
OILM4:  OIL CITY          :0700/  7 / -25 / -24 /    T/   T/17


: ***HURON COUNTY***
BDAM4:  BAD AXE           :0700/  8 / -14 / -14 / 0.00/ 0.0/13
FLNM4:  FILION 5NNW       :0630/  7 / -19 / -18 / 0.01/ 0.2/13
POAM4:  PORT AUSTIN       :0740/  9 / -12 / -10 / 0.00/   M/7
PHPM4:  PORT HOPE         :0800/  8 / -13 / -11 / 0.00/ 0.0/14


: ***SAGINAW COUNTY***
CHSM4:  CHESANING         :0730/    /     /     / 0.00/   M/8
FKMM4:  FRANKENMUTH 1SE   :0805/  6 / -16 / -14 / 0.00/   M/15
MERM4:  MERRIL 2E         :0800/  8 / -16 /  -5 / 0.00/   M/M
SAGM4:  SAGINAW           :0800/  8 / -13 /  -9 / 0.00/ 0.0/7


: ***TUSCOLA COUNTY***
CARM4:  CARO              :0920/  8 / -20 /   0 / 0.00/   M/9



: ***SANILAC COUNTY***
LEXM4:  LEXINGTON         :0730/ 10 / -11 / -11 / 0.02/ 0.2/11
MRLM4:  MARLETTE          :0700/  6 / -15 / -14 / 0.00/   M/6
SANM4:  SANDUSKY          :0642/ 15 / -14 / -14 / 0.00/   M/16


: ***SHIAWASSEE COUNTY***
CORM4:  CORUNNA 2NE       :0600/ 12 / -14 / -14 / 0.02/ 0.5/7
OWSM4:  OWOSSO            :0700/ 10 / -11 /  -7 / 0.00/   M/14


: ***GENESEE COUNTY***
BUNM4:  BURTON 4N         :0700/ 11 / -18 / -17 / 0.00/   M/11
LIDM4:  LINDEN            :0845/  8 / -13 /  -3 / 0.00/   M/7
GODM4:  GOODRICH          :0730/ 10 / -17 / -15 / 0.00/   M/6


: ***LAPEER COUNTY***
LPEM4:  LAPEER 2W         :1030/ 12 / -19 /  12 /    T/   T/10


: ***ST. CLAIR COUNTY***
YALM4:  YALE              :0655/ 10 / -18 / -18 / 0.01/ 0.2/20


: ***LIVINGSTON COUNTY***
HELM4:  HELL              :1050/  9 / -16 /   9 / 0.00/   M/9
HOWM4:  HOWELL            :0749/ 12 / -16 /  -6 /    T/   T/13
WHLM4:WHITMORE LK 1N      :0700/ 10 / -16 / -16 / 0.00/ 0.0/9


: ***OAKLAND COUNTY***
FARM4:  FARMINGTON        :0730/ 11 /  -9 /  -9 / 0.00/   M/9
WSBM4:  WEST BLOOMFIELD   :0700/    /     /     / 0.00/   M/14


: ***MACOMB COUNTY***
RICM4:  RICHMOND 4NNW     :0800/ 12 / -13 / -12 /    T/   T/12


: ***WASHTENAW COUNTY***
AASM4: ANN ARBOR-SOUTHEAST:0730/ 12 / -10 / -10 / 0.02/ 0.4/13
CHLM4:  CHELSEA           :0934/ 10 / -16 /   0 / 0.00/   M/11
MCHM4:  MANCHESTER        :0700/ 12 / -13 / -13 /    T/ 0.2/15
SLNM4:  SALINE 4SW        :0800/ 13 / -13 /  -4 / 0.00/   M/M
SALM4:  SALINE            :0840/ 14 / -15 /  -6 / 0.02/   T/6


: ***WAYNE COUNTY***
DBNM4:  DEARBORN          :0700/ 13 /   0 /   0 / 0.00/   M/6
GPFM4:  GROSSE PTE FARMS  :0800/ 13 /  -3 /   2 / 0.00/ 0.0/6
WYTM4:  WYANDOTTE         :0800/    /     /     / 0.01/ 0.2/12


: ***LENAWEE COUNTY***
BLIM4:  BLISSFIELD 1SW    :M   /  M /   M /   M / 0.01/   M/M
MRIM4:  MORENCI           :0730/ 16 /  -8 /  -7 /    T/   T/8
TECM4:  TECUMSEH          :0630/ 16 / -10 /  -8 / 0.00/   M/4
TIPM4:  TIPTON 2WNW       :1000/ 15 /  -8 /  10 / 0.00/   M/12


: ***MONROE COUNTY***
DNDM4:  DUNDEE            :0700/ 12 /  -4 /  -4 /    T/   T/6
MLIM4:  MILAN             :1200/ 13 /  -6 /  -6 / 0.10/ 0.2/4
MNRM4:  MONROE            :0900/ 15 /  -4 /   6 /    T/   T/5
NWPM4:  NEWPORT 4SSE      :0700/ 16 /   2 /   2 /    T/ 0.2/3
.END

___________________________________________________________________________________________
2/22/2014
In the latest expectation of the visit of the Polar Vortex, the following maps depict it's growth and development along with subsequent plunge southward toward Southern Canada. It will influenced a large portion of Canada and northern US. First, however I'd like to note that "Polar Vortex's" are nothing new, they have been known of since their discovery in meteorology involving planetary winds and jet streams...and obviously, existed before their discovery.

Generally to a large extent. visit's from the vortex happens nearly every winter in the Great Lakes but during some winters, worse and more often than others. Most times we experience just an extension (or brush) of the cold core Polar vortex but occasionally, it's the whole enchilada. Take note of latest NCEP Ensemble model projections of our latest scheduled visit during the upcoming week (dates are at the top next to valid time and white x denotes Michigan on map).

We'll take a look at it's actual result by weeks end.

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

Powerful Storm to Lash the Great Lakes Late This Week and Is Our Infamous Polar Vortex Planning a Return Visit Late Next Week?

-Update 2/21/2014


_____________________________________________________________________________________________


Powerful Storm to Lash The Great Lakes Thursday Into Friday

The meteorological stage will be set over the Mid West, Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes states Thursday into Friday as the confrontation of the Arctic cold air mass to the north and warmer air mass from the deep south, clash over those regions. A deep and intensifying low pressure system will be spawned over the Southern Plains overnight and will be approaching the Great Lakes Thursday. The deep, intense low will move through the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan later Thursday and Thursday night, departing slowly on Friday.
 
This late week storm will be a noisy and possibly even a destructive beast as the clash of milder, somewhat unstable air- at least from what we've experienced in sometime- is rushed northward into the area Thursday...only to be rudely rushed out Thursday night by the colder air mass that has claimed the region for months now! While I don't expect classic severe weather over Southeast Lower Michigan as the stabilizing factor of the cold ground and heavy snow pack will keep any surface based convection at bay; I do expect strong winds and possibly a thunder (or thunder-less) squall-line Thursday late evening as the cold air mass surges toward Southeast Lower Michigan.

Weather Particulars;

Rain...some of it possibly freezing...and snow for a period early Thursday will change over to rain and move through the region as milder air surges into the area on warmer, brisk, southerly winds during the day. Temperatures should push  into the 40s over much of the region for a time Thursday and along with the expected rain; leave are region with localized ground and roadway flooding...a real sloppy mess as snow-melt adds to the problem.

As the low pressure and cold front approach late Thursday look for strong and gusty southerly winds to overspread the area as a squall of rain and scattered thunderstorms marches east across Southeast Lower Michigan during Thursday evening. Once the front moves through late Thursday night, strong and gusty west winds of 25 to 40 mph with gusts possibly into the 50s will blast Southeast Lower Michigan into Friday. Looks for temperatures to drop back off through the 30s and eventually 20s later on Friday.

Infamous Polar Vortex Planning For  Return Visit Late Next Week?

Early indications are our "buddy from the north" will make a return engagement - hopefully its last for the season (but you didn't hear it from me)- later next week. While temperatures will fall back to below normal, a large colder Arctic air mass will be building once again "land of the far north" only to be directed into much of the US later next week. While the extent of the cold and it's duration are still up for grabs, at this very early juncture it does look like a distinct possibly it will bring below zero readings once again...but again, it's much too early for the weather particulars on this.
 one; so updates will follow....

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

-Update 2/18 Compact Storm With Impressive Dynamics Will Make For a Bad Night of Travel Wtih Heavy Snow, Snow Squalls and Gusty Winds!

-Update 2/18
System performed generally as expected/model projections with even some thunder-snow in isolated spots in downriver communities of Detroit.

Check out event write-up from DTX:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=100525&source=0

Snowfall amounts

 


____________________________________________________________________________________________
2/17/14
A relatively weak surface reflecting low pressure but with notably strong dynamics aloft  - not to mention a good moisture supply- will overspread Southeast Lower Michigan with quickly accumulating snow. Look for the snow to begin to move into the region around dark, or shortly thereafter and last into the early morning hours of Tuesday. While the snowfall period won't be long..about 6-8 hours..the strong dynamics of the system will lead to some heavy convective snow bands and even a chance of thunder-snow. Atmospheric mid levels of this dynamic system are showing some instability and therefore it can't be ruled out. Along with the instability, the max wind jet core is impressive for the deceivingly weaker surface reflected system. Take a look....

                                                                                            SURFACE  MAP

Look for snowfalls to range generally in the 3 - 6" with pockets of an inch or two higher possible, especially due to nature of the system and its dynamics. Snowfalls of an 1"or 2' per hour or even a bit better, are likely for at least a few hours along with visibilities cratering to below 1/2 mile in heaviest squalls as winds gusts 20 to 30 mph.

In other words; it's going to be a LOUSY night on the roads, so try to make it in by dark if it's all possible!
 

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian

2/5/14 - Snowfall Totals From Snow System Overnight Into Wednesday Morning

2/5/14 - Snow totals

The storm centered pushed through the upper Ohio valley overnight into Wednesday and left generally a 3 - 6" snowfall
across much of the region. Some outliers on the high side included; Wyandotte /8.3"/ Detroit Metro Arpt  and Monroe /8.0"/...Ypsilanti  /7.8"/ while Midland and Bay City were the lowest with just an inch and a half and two inches, respectively. 

Snowfall totals from the February 5th Snowfall

ZCZC ARBPNSDTX
NOUS43 KDTX 051902
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-052130-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...STORM TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
202 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014


STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTS

LOCATION                  SNOWFALL     DURATION
                          (INCHES)      (HOURS)        LAT       LON

...BAY COUNTY...
   BAY CITY                E   2.0            M     43.59N    83.89W

...GENESEE COUNTY...
   FLINT                   M   5.7           14     43.02N    83.69W

...HURON COUNTY...
   BAD AXE                 E   2.5           14     43.80N    83.00W

...LENAWEE COUNTY...
   MANITOU BEACH           E   2.2           14     41.97N    84.31W
   ONSTED                  E   5.5           14     42.01N    84.19W
   TECUMSEH                E   5.5           14     42.01N    83.94W

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
   HELL                    M   4.0           14     42.43N    83.99W

...MIDLAND COUNTY...
   MIDLAND                 E   1.5           14     43.62N    84.23W

...MONROE COUNTY...
   DUNDEE                  E   6.0           14     41.96N    83.66W
   MONROE                  M   8.0           14     41.92N    83.39W

...OAKLAND COUNTY...
   FARMINGTON              M   3.6           14     42.46N    83.38W
   LAKE ORION              E   4.0           14     42.78N    83.24W
   ROYAL OAK               M   4.8           14     42.51N    83.15W
   PONTIAC                 M   5.0           14     42.65N    83.29W
   CLARKSTON               M   5.2           14     42.74N    83.42W
   4 E WHITE LAKE          M   5.9           14     42.65N    83.43W

...SAGINAW COUNTY...
   MERRILL                 E   2.7           14     43.41N    84.34W
   HEMLOCK                 M   3.9           14     43.42N    84.23W
   5 W SAGINAW             M   4.0           14     43.42N    84.05W
   SAGINAW                 M   4.0           14     43.42N    83.95W
   SAGINAW                 M   4.8           14     43.42N    83.95W
   CHESANING               M   7.0           14     43.18N    84.12W

...SANILAC COUNTY...
   DECKERVILLE             M   4.0           14     43.53N    82.74W

...SHIAWASSEE COUNTY...
   CORUNNA                 M   6.3           14     42.98N    84.12W

...ST. CLAIR COUNTY...
   PORT HURON              M   5.7           14     42.99N    82.43W
   PORT HURON              M   6.4           14     42.99N    82.43W

...TUSCOLA COUNTY...
   VASSAR                  M   6.0           14     43.37N    83.58W

...WASHTENAW COUNTY...
   SALINE                  E   3.5           14     42.18N    83.78W
   ANN ARBOR               M   4.6           14     42.28N    83.73W
   SE ANN ARBOR            M   4.9           14     42.28N    83.73W
   MANCHESTER              M   5.6           14     42.15N    84.04W
   YPSILANTI               M   7.8           14     42.24N    83.62W

...WAYNE COUNTY...
   GARDEN CITY             M   5.2           14     42.33N    83.33W
   DEARBORN                M   5.9           14     42.31N    83.21W
   GROSSE POINTE           M   6.0           14     42.39N    82.91W
   DETROIT                 M   8.0           14     42.38N    83.11W
   WYANDOTTE               M   8.3           14     42.21N    83.16W


M = MEASURED
E = ESTIMATED

___________________________________
2/4/14
Another low pressure system tracking northeast through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will  around drop snow across Southeast Lower Michigan. This time, the main thrust of this storm will be just south of the region across Northeast Indiana and Northwest Ohio. Never-the-less; look for a general 3" - 6" of snow with pockets of 7" possible over Southeast Lower Michigan from the Ann Arbor area...east northeast across metro Detroit and its suburbs into Mt Clemens and Algonac and points south to the Ohio border. Highest snowfalls will generally extend from the I-94 region southward into Lenawee and Monroe counties. Latest morning's guidance continues to show a tight range of amounts along with varying amounts per model. Our NAM model continues to be one of the wettest with the GFS and European a bit drier. Any northwest jog of the track could yield a couple inches more, while a southeast jog would intimate less. Snowfall amounts are such fun!!

Further north across the mid Southeast Lower Michigan region into the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region; I look for generally a lighter snowfall of 2" - 4" into Wednesday morning. This would included the cities of Howell... Pontiac... Flint... Port Huron...Saginaw into Bad axe and Lake Huron communities.

Timing of this system will mess with Wednesday morning's commute so plan accordingly.

A large strong cold high pressure system will follow in the storm's wake sliding down the Western Canada into the Plains and Midwest later in the week. The air mass from this system will bring well below normal reading across the Great Lakes and Southeast Lower Michigan. Highs will be range in the teens, while lows will fall in the single figures above and below zero...nothing we aren't accustom to this winter!

Another storm will affect the Southern Great Lakes...Ohio Valley and East Coast this upcoming weekend. The worst of this storm at this early juncture appears it too will be southeast of Southeast Lower Michigan and extend along the East Coast.

Updates will follow later this week....

Making weather fun while we all learn,
Bill Deedler -SEMI_WeatherHistorian